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Did not we all want a $6B market cap for ADXS?
It would not have been possible without the smarts of Google:
Market Summary > Advaxis, Inc.
NASDAQ: ADXS
Mkt cap 6.81B
Life is full of surprises, especially in Advaxistan...
Another Tuesday morning tidbit:
Advaxis had $32.7M of cash and CE as of 1/31/19.
If their cash burn remained flat (albeit I suspect it increased recently) at ~11.5M/Q, the company currently has about $25M of cash. That amounts for about 6 months of cash runway.
By all accounts, they need to replenish their coffers NOW.
Deal or Data -- nothing else matta (per WST). We are past Data cycle, and since there are no deals guess what's next? Question is only how many shares at what price and what is the multiplies for warrants (2x or 3x)?
With almost 200M (!) pre-split shares traded already, you have to guess how this exactly is possible. 3X float by the EOD? My guess would be besides the momentum traders, someone big run this stock yp to over 10 to then short heavily. Looks like lots of naked shorting done in an anticipation of the upcoming offering. These new shares (double of the current float with double warrants?) will be used to cover the naked short positions. And the long term shareholders are to be wiped out. Completely. Sigh...
He's a short tool masquerading as a bio "analyst". A public megaphone for deep pocketed hedge funds (short). It's a disgrace but nevertheless it's legal.
Thanks. Just noticed that. AF and his cronies are as bad as it gets in this dogg-eat-catt world.
And the bashing begins ...
AF and his trolls at work
$ADXS up ~66% on a PR misrepresenting ADXS-PSA as improving OS whereas it was adding pembo that did improve OS https://t.co/IDiKTDyp11 pic.twitter.com/R30oLSSay5
— M (@bio_clouseau) April 1, 2019
April Fool! $ADXS #AACR19 https://t.co/oWMNd4b56y
— Jacob Plieth (@JacobPlieth) April 1, 2019
The volume is crazy! 45M pre-split shares traded just now -- the highest volume ever.
This is either:
1) due to some cash deal leak;
2) or, P&D before the secondary.
Anyone's guess...
Hov,
1)Are you a buyer after the recent two AACR abstracts?
2) Will the data released in these abstracts warrant a new SA article from Dr Hartman?
Thanks, Hov.
Need a validation now: Sign a partner, get a cash deal done. That would be a true vindication for all of us -- shareholders, and the company. Getting a cash deal done BEFORE a secondary will save us from a total obliteration. But I sense a raise is coming before any deal is signed.
Just random thoughts about MINE results:
https://www.advaxis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/AACR2019-adxs-neo-safety-and-immunogenicity-of-a-personalized-neoantigen.pdf
1) 1e-9 cfu is beyond max tolerated dose (MTD). Note that they planned to have 3 doses: 1e-8 (safe), 5e-8 and 1e-9 (over MTD now). There were only 2 patients in 1e-9 doses, and then had to revert to 1e-8 levels. Don't see any data for 5e-8 cfu dosages;
2) 2 out 4 patients had disease progression, only 1 stable disease. Three patients discontinued the treatment. Why?
3) This is far from being a cure. Thus, I now see why they want to consider combo treatments with a checkpoint inhibitor.
Read the SEC filing about R/S. They kept the number of authorized shares unchanged during the 15:1 split. Bummer, huh?
No. They have lots of authorized shares. No need to file a shelf registration.
Imho, there is almost no doubt the offering is coming this week. The question remains only how big this secondary will be and how many warrants are going to be issued. Double warrants or triple.
My guess is they offer about 3M shares at $4. Plus 4-5M warrants priced at $3. If so, we will go down under $2 based on Black-Sholes model.
No cash deal is coming this time. The data is not stellar to take us over $10. Sad.
We will be diluted into oblivion.
Volume is the second highest in the past 3 years, already over 10M pre-split, just below the highest volume of 15.5M on 3/13/19. This is crazy!
Once James posted the AACR data, the stock went nuts...
Is the data THAT good?
It's a myth that institutions are prohibited from buying a stock under $5. They care about a market cap, not a share price.
Read here:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/11/06/can-mutual-funds-own-stocks-under-5.aspx
Can Mutual Funds Own Stocks Under $5?
An institutional bias against penny stocks isn't as real as commonly believed.
Jordan Wathen (TMFValueMagnet)
Nov 6, 2017 at 12:45PM
It's often said that mutual funds and other institutional investors can't own stocks that trade for less than $5, condemning low-priced stocks to retail ownership only. But the truth is actually the opposite -- there are some roadblocks for investing in penny stocks, but they are most applicable to average Joes, not professional investors who run institutional sums.
Why share prices matter (and why they don't)
Mathematically, a company worth $10 billion is still worth $10 billion, whether it is sliced into $1 shares or $1,000 shares. However, the government takes a different view due to laws passed to thwart bad brokerage practices.
Congress put share prices in the spotlight when it made it more difficult for brokers to process client transactions in stocks priced lower than $5 each, the cutoff point below which a stock earns the "penny stock" label.
These regulations were put into place following a broad crackdown on sketchy stock brokers in the early 1990s. Back then, brokerages sold penny stocks of questionable quality to investors all around the country by phone, charging huge commissions on each trade.
These folks weren't bad at picking good stocks, but rather good at selling bad stocks. One of the largest busted brokerages was J.T. Moran, which was the basis for the story in the movie Boiler Room. Stratton Oakmont, featured in Wolf of Wall Street, fits the description, too. You get the idea here.
Photo of a roll of $5 bills
TO MUTUAL FUNDS AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, SHARE PRICES ARE LARGELY IRRELEVANT. IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.
How Congress dealt with penny stock salesmen
Congress decided that it needed to make it harder for individual investors to buy bad stocks, deciding to make $5 the dividing line between "good" and "bad" stocks. And with new rules in place, it immediately became all that much harder for brokers to pitch stocks that trade for less than $5 per share.
According to the Securities and Exchange Commission, brokers can't process trades in stocks worth less than $5 without following a laundry list of rules and processes. Before transacting in penny stocks, brokers must first:
Approve the customer for the transaction
Receive a written agreement for the transaction
Provide the customer a disclosure statement that describes the risk of investing in penny stocks
Disclose the current market price for the stock
Disclose how much the firm and broker will receive for processing the trade
The rules are reflective of the times in which they were adopted. In the 1980s and 1990s, commissions were generally assessed on a per-share basis, rather than on a flat fee basis that is the standard today. Thus, brokers made more by selling 2,000 shares of a $1 stock than 10 shares of a $200 stock, which is why penny stocks were commonly pitched by the sleaziest of stockbrokers, and why Congress targeted penny stocks with legislation.
What about institutional investors?
Mutual funds and other institutional investors may choose to avoid stocks priced at less than $5 per share, but there are no specific rules or laws prohibiting the practice.
In fact, one of the largest actively managed stock funds on the market today is the Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund (NASDAQMUTFUND:FLPSX), which specifically seeks to invest in stocks priced at less than $35 per share. It launched in 1989 at the height of the public's love affair with low-priced stocks, and has crushed the market since inception. (Its focus on low-priced stocks may be more of a guide than a rule today, since its five largest investments all trade for more than $35 per share, a testament to the fact that self-imposed restrictions are rarely set in stone.)
Of course, index funds are more prominent today than in the past, and many have a mandate to own all stocks in the index they track, regardless of share prices. The S&P 500 Index, and the funds that track it, all have at least one penny stock in their portfolio, Chesapeake Energy. The Russell 2000 Index, which is generally regarded as the small cap stock index, includes 157 penny stocks, based on my analysis of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF.
Realistically, penny stocks don't make up a large part of the market in terms of value, but they are numerous, and many are owned by funds because share prices are largely irrelevant to the decision to buy or sell. Professional investors know that a stock that trades for $4 that they believe to be worth $10 is a far better investment than a $40 stock they believe to be worth $50.
The next time someone tells you that a stock that has dropped will drop even further when institutions are forced to sell below $5, refer them to this article. Though the average Joe may face a few hurdles when buying or selling stocks under $5, there is no meaningful institutional bias against stocks that trade for less than $5 each. In fact, thanks to the rise of index funds, there are perhaps more funds that are required by their mandate to buy penny stocks than funds that purposefully exclude them.
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Crazy volume -- almost 2.4M pre-split shares in 45 minutes!
I'm cautiously optimistic that NEO will be re-partnered soon. Merck might be a suitor.
These last changes in the CT site are NOT accidental. Why on Earth they want to expand the indications and add 2 more sites? They do not have money to do so. Do they know the money is coming?
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT03265080?A=3&B=4&C=Side-by-Side#StudyPageTop
Urothelial Carcinoma
Metastatic Melanoma
Combo with Keytruda added to the CT site. New indications:
Colon Cancer Metastatic
Head and Neck Cancer Metastatic
Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer
Urothelial Carcinoma
Metastatic Melanoma
New sites added:
United States, Louisiana
Ochsner Clinic Foundation - Ochsner Cancer Institute
[Recruiting]
New Orleans, Louisiana, United States, 70121
Principal Investigator: Marc Matrana, MD
United States, New Jersey
Rutgers Cancer Institute of New Jersey
[Recruiting]
New Brunswick, New Jersey, United States, 08903
Principal Investigator: Roman Groisberg, MD
Maybe, a deal with Merck?
Quite a few changes in ADXS-NEO trial. Posted just now.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT03265080?A=3&B=4&C=Side-by-Side#StudyPageTop
In any case, this is their last R/S. They will either survive, or cease to exist this year. It's a binary scenario -- do or die now. The financial markets are virtually going to be unavailable for the company if they drop a ball this time. Only strong data or a solid partnership will facilitate a turnaround. Otherwise, they are done. The next few days are the most critical days for this company.
From the SEC filing on 3/14/19:
Lifting the hold is NOT a catalyst that skyrockets the share price.
Given that a positive news is coming shortly, any serviceable-level management would do this R/S in the following order:
1) Release the news;
2) Let the share price run;
3) Arrange R/S and do a secondary;
Thus, either the management is stupid (I doubt it), or there's no great news on the horizon. I think it's the latter.
Here we go...
30% drop already
From the PR:
This whole "run up" looks more and more like a plain old P&D. The equity got heavily shorted in an anticipation of the warrants exchange, and someone orchestrated a run up, now someone is dumping shares en masse.
Is it surprising that no one talks about "term sheets" now? Nothing has materialized? Well, that's been an MO for this company for years now.
Effect of the R/S:
Cormedix (CRMD) did a r/s today -- the share price is down by 8%.
There are only 2 sites involved in the study. Baylor College of Medicine --the second site -- was added almost 2.5 years ago and it shows "not yet recruiting". Interestingly, Dr Sikora, our PI, is affiliated with that institution. This is bloody Ph2 study with an estimated enrollment of 30, and it's been going on for more than 5 years ... Typical ADXS.