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Doing nothing is very hard to do. You never know when you’re finished.
-Leslie Nielsen
I agree with all your points. I also agree with your specific example about the secondary. I truly believe they really didnt know what they were doing and what effect it would have on the stock. I think (hope) many of us calling it to their attention will give them a better perspective next time someone is about the rake them over the coals in a similar situation.
it can only lead me to one conclusion: AMJ is a dreaded, master trader!!!
The naivety on this board is amazing at times. to think these emails from Dan are illegal is truly laughable.
no one is asking for inside information...he is asking for a an answer to a logical follow-up to a keeney response. but hey, say hi to peter for us all.
whole-heartedly agree. terrible, terrible response. talk about avoiding a question.
"Why were you able to be in a position to release the report for the AIM/CPR but you can't release that info now for US investors?" or something to that effect.
your question is quite clear to me and I am assuming 99% of the board as well. (and this was before you sent any follow-ups...your question is quite natural and logical based on how he responded).
nice work Krom...
sorry - I worded that bad but i see daylate posted the actual legal text from the filings which explains it all.
pretty sure that is correct - once there is production, erhc does not get profit until costs are first paid.
To Achieve the impossible dream, try going to sleep – Joan Klempner
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. - George Carlin
c'mon krom you know this...though you may get a discount to the future cash flows, a buyout also eliminates risk of further poor results. i would argue that a good majority would've loved a buyout pre-drilling for 2-3 bucks a share. i for one, would've enjoyed it. i could've put that windfall into other profitable investments (compounding) instead of looking at an SP in the teens.
of course i also see the flip side for those higher on the risk/reward scale with such an uncertain investment. but as of now, i dont believe a buyout will occur for a few more years and simply have to accept it since i have no plans to buy or sell right now. riding this baby into the sunset!
remember a few years back when meridian was run off the board for saying that erhc could legitimately fetch 2-3 bucks a share and also the rumors about buyouts for around that same price (including the upstream article about the pioneer rumor of a buy-in at 1.50 a share)? most scoffed...how does that look now?
i think SEO was way too greedy and it has come back to bite him. i believe the rumors that we couldve sold out pre-drilling to SNP (ala gandur)at a hefty price (though not seo's 10/share). instead SEO went all in with what was most definitely not a sure hand.
arent we due for another forward-looking erhc "update"????
another solid find king - thanks!
wonder what the timing is on it? could finally get a little buzz moving back to the area.
LOL! hey i have this bridge here in nyc, it's for sale. you want it? i give you good deal!
dated 1/25...
let's hope not because that would mean the price isn't much better than the low .20s.
i assign a .000001% chance of that....
you need to ask high cotton. that's his job.
Billionaire Gandur Aims To Get Back In Oil Game
Jan. 24 2011 - 1:22 pm | 435 views | 0 recommendations | 0 comments
By CHRISTOPHER HELMAN
It’s good to know that billionaire Jean Claude Gandur hasn’t retired from the oil and gas business after selling Addax Petroleum for $7.2 billion to Sinopec nearly two years ago (see: “Cashing In On Iraqi Oil”).
With his roughly $1.5 billion cash from the deal, Gandur could have just focused on his passions for art and antiquities and fine wine. Last March he donated $20 million to Geneva’s art and history museum and pledged to house many of his 800 artefacts there–including 250 works of post-war abstract art and one of the best ancient Egypt collections in private hands.
But after 30 years, the oil business is in Gandur’s blood (see: “Trouble Is My Business,” my extensive 2007 profile of Gandur). It was refreshing in recent months to see that Gandur’s privately held Addax & Oryx Group was bidding on Royal Dutch Shell’s acreage for sale in Nigeria.
In pursuit of the fields, Gandur’s newly constituted Oryx Petroleum is competing with the likes of private equity giant Riverstone, whose London oil and gas division is overseen by former BP chief executive John Browne.
Other interested parties include Parenco, Nigerian company Oando Petroleum, Gazprom, and a group backed by billionaire scion Nat Rothschild. Shell closed bidding for the blocks in mid-January and a decision on who to sell them to is expected soon.
There was really never any question that Addax & Oryx Group would get back into the game. The company (at least one-third owned by Gandur) still holds substantial downstream assets in Africa. And it is a leading crude oil trading company (though it decided to close its underperforming Singapore trading office last year).
Gandur looks to be refocusing on Africa. In Sierra Leone, Addax Bioenergy has leased some 124,000 acres to grow sugarcane for ethanol production. This thorough Reuters article describes the agricultural land grab underway in Africa, citing a study by Friends of Earth that figures 19,300 square miles have been acquired by foreign firms, mostly earmarked for biofuels production.
Some rice and cassava farmers in Addax’s territory have complained that the new farms are already destroying their way of life, though Addax reportedly did engage landowners in their planning procedures and secure lease agreements with all of them before moving forward.
Progress can be painful, but hopefully will help more than hurt the people.
In a speech last year Sierra Leone’s President Ernest Bai Koroma hailed the Addax project as having the potential to become the nation’s biggest agricultural operation, with eventual investment of $400 million and supporting 4,000 jobs.
Gandur has excelled over the years in making friends with Africa’s presidents and potentates. In Sierra Leone, A&O Group already owns a large fuel storage terminal at the deepwater port of Freetown. Considering the recent oil and gas discoveries offshore Sierra Leone made by the likes of Anadarko Petroleum, we won’t be surprised if Gandur soon secures some exploration blocks of his own.
from forbes.com
strategyone - i have said before i consider you one of the better posters on this board...but i will now preface that with one of the more knowledgeable OIL guys. not meant as an insult but its obvious you are not that well-versed in the finance side of things. these deals are shorted ALL time, especially if management doesnt ask for any trading restrictions which erhc DID NOT do. i would put the odds at about 99.9% that some of the PP buyers shorted into the deal. again, its risk-free, free money. this happens all the time in penny land. i find it hard to believe that alot of people fail to grasp this (not necessarily including you)
the difference is that those companies were in a bind and needed the cash to survive. we have 4-5 years worth of cash...
i think pn was out of his league when he struck this deal. he's pretty well-educated...im guessing (and hoping) he learned alot from this one and dont expect it to repeated again.
my simple premise/strategy is this:
a small oil company approaches me when the stock is trading in the .30's to buy shares at .22 with NO restrictions. what do i do??? i say done and done...i then have my best trader go out there and short as much as he can in the .30s and lock in the spread. it's FREE money. doesn't get any more easier than that. that's why i fault management so much. they could've at least negotiated some covenants that would've prevented the fund from shorting. is it any wonder we continue to hover around that price? its like a magnet.
oh and that spread? annualize that...it's ridiculous and that's what arb shops do. they constantly sweep pennies to make dollars. you keep compounding returns like that and you have one helluva year.
ps. as i said before, i hope this is only a small hiccup with this company. if we find alot of oil, we will still make alot of money DESPITE the guys running it. if they continue to dilute us with the remaining 48mm, then im guessing things will get ugly.
you are right... the "idiot" comment was uncalled for. though i dont agree with you, i do enjoy the spirited discourse we all have. i will not stoop to that level again, no matter how much we disagree!
krom - your best bet is to steer clear. the guy is passing "inside info" via email per his signature. i sure as h*ll wouldnt buy or sell off it. in the off chance it's accurate and legit (fortunately for his sake, hes been way off over the years), i'm sure the SEC would be mighty interested in your trading records.
TOB - why not short shares at +30 cents when the deal is put in place. after all, there are no restrictions? you lock in a huge spread FOR FREE (get shares at .22). or if it goes below, you can cover in the market and then be long if you are bullish in the long term with the shares at .22. if not, you guarantee a ridiculous risk-free return by covering the shares at .22. (that's risk-free in the real world, not TOB bizzaro world) win-win.
though strategyone has alot of faulty logic in his/her posting, your logic is even more flawed. you are no longer allowed to lock in a gain via short selling. IRS banned it and as soon as you short a stock you are long (or vice versa), it's automatically a short term capital gain. feel free to look it up in the tax code.
ps. TOB is an idiot.
It was in an email that Dan sent directly to me. Oh and put me down in your poll for one against management.
it won't matter because the world will end on december 21, 2012 according to my Mayan Investors Daily Newsletter...(sorry but i never buy any of these wacky doomsday "investment" newsletters/investors)
yep look at all that appreciation today...you guys need to remove the tin foil hats every so often and get some fresh oxygen to your brains. 99% of the people here are not part of secret groups or some evil manipulator conspiracy theory. it's generally due to the fact that this investment simply hasn't panned out as of now and people arent happy about it. pretty simple.
his "strategy" (if you want to call it that) also asks each individual to sacrifice their own money by not putting in the best bid that suits them and instead just wait until the end of the day to buy blindly. this is seriously one of the funnier things i have ever seen in my message board years. for a few posts, i thought it was all tongue-in-cheek...but he actually believes it would work.
You are my new favorite poster after this gem. I'm sure the increase had nothing to do with news or excitement or anything....no it was hc and friends at the ask the at end of each day! You are like a superhero for all longs.
Do you really believe what you actually type? Kinda ashamed that I own the same stock as you
Ps. I'll ask again.... If you believe this truly does work, why aren't you buying 50 shares at the close each day? Also what happens when a stock opens lower? Are we supposed to then by above the market? I think I'll bid .35 today for shares!