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You are right about that, certainly possible. I think oil needs a breather though but more importantly I need a breather lol. I've gotten up at 6am everyday and checking things out then trading from 7am all the way until 8pm pretty much everyday. With the volatility I had to keep watching and trading. I need a break from oil so I'm taking one. I'm going to do something else for a couple of days, anything but oil related. I will be back, no doubt and soon. You take care and I wish you the best.
Solid post. Alright man, I am out at 1.93. That was the last of my re-entry from today. I'm taking a break for a few days. One thing about oil is that it trades 24/7 almost so I'm pretty tired lol. Been getting up at 6am everyday. Been at it for weeks now as you know. I'll check in, in a few days, good luck everyone.
I'm selling. I will gladly re-enter on a pullback. Too much pumping (cheerleading) now. Not necessarily here but other forms. Crude price also up pushing against upper bollinger band with fast sto of 94 and full sto of 92. Too hot for me and too much hysteria now.
No doubt. $38 to me just completes the W but I see it very possible that (after a strong pullback from $38) $42 could come even $46 etc. Just don't know. What I am very confident about is that the W will complete and there will certainly be a downward correction from that $38 but from there probably back up. Also will there be a correction before $38 comes? Don't know, there probably will be one but it doesn't have to.
I would think so. Looking at last year and going off percentages and then comparing to this year the "W" on the right side is about 70% completed now (compared to last year's percent increase of 48%). Last year by this time there had been two decent sized pullbacks by this point and actually a third one was right about now (again percentage wise).
This time around just the one pullback so far, however no year of coarse will play out like before. If I had to make a wild guess I'd say this year we get more then a 48% increase in time. Whether or not there will be a big pullback before we get to that 48% increase ($38 level or so) I don't know but I would almost guarantee that if there hasn't been one by then ($38ish) then it will have a major pullback at that time.
I say stay bullish, no reason not to. Cautiously bullish right here but the W will complete even if there is going to be a pullback before $38. Oil will get to $38 one way or another IMO. Also could just flip the volatility.
A couple of observations I have. This is exactly like last year. Same W shape bottom. Same time of year roughly although the run started a little earlier then last year.
Last year look at Dec 2014. Price was about $60 or so. That was the left side of the W. Then the W and then the right side of the W was the run which got it back to $60 or so.
This Dec is the left side of this W so that was $38 or so. Then the W and now the right side. Seems logical that the right side will hit $38 or so.
Now check out percentages. Low last year was $42 and then the top of the right side of W was $62 so about a 48% increase. When oil goes to $38 then that would be about a 48% increase from the bottom this year from $26.
Only differences I see from last year's run and this year's is that last year had 3 or so healthy pullbacks doing the right side W run. The run this year hasn't really had any sizable pullbacks. There was the one from $31 down to $29.
Just some things I have noticed and how almost exact the two runs are.
lol yep, I'm thinking $37 in a couple of days? I think you said your are looking for $38?
Oil is green as can be. After a report like that it is truly amazing. A good media pumping campaign out does reports and charts and everything else. I am on the sidelines here. Not in D or U and not buying either right now. I see oil hit $33 I'll buy U and if I see it go over $36 I'll buy D, until then I wait. There was a gas draw so that is bullish but really nothing else, doesn't matter one bit though lol.
I don't like saying it but oil is primed for a selloff. A lot of shorts have already covered over the last 5 days or so. There are also sure to be profit takers once they see momo slide. On the chart (depending on what is used as the close for oil) the fast sto is over cooked, as well as the full sto. RSI is up near 60. For oil to continue to go up that report tomorrow has to be bullish. API and EIA put out very different numbers often so there is a chance EIA report isn't as bearish as the API report but with this ride up, to keep it up without a pullback that EIA report had better be a complete 180 from this API report.
I see on the trendline that because it has gotten out ahead of itself crude oil can actually drop to about $32.80 and still not fall below the new trendline. That is a pretty big drop that is possible. Then on the Brent side it has also gotten too far out ahead and can drop to $33.70 and still not fall below the trendline. I'm still bullish, but I believe oil really needs a pullback.
Not trying to be a stick in the mud, I'm just trying to keep it real. The media has been doing a lot of pumping since last week and that really started to bother me by yesterday. When I add the media pumping campaign and over-cooked indicators to me it is a flashing sign of caution.
Bingo, and by my math DWTI at $175 equals WTI oil at about $36.20, right in line with my thinking.
Thank you YWC, you also provide very good information and reasoning.
For right now the pump machine is on so it seems reasonable to hold if you want to until you see selling pressure. They will have to pull back soon I would think to reset some indicators on the crude chart but heck they might just keep it going until $36/37 crude oil at this point before a pull back, certainly possible.
Oil hit my low trend-line target very early this morning at just under $32.30. Unfortunately extended hours trading wasn't opened yet. I see the media doing a huge pump job now along with producing countries. The crude chart is still over-bought and indicators are over heated BUT with a pumping campaign that doesn't matter one bit. I think they bring crude to $36/37. I think riding along for the pump is fine just be cautious. The chart will get further over-bought and indicators will get to where they are extremely over-heated once at $36/37 so look for a big dump at $36/37 and a pull back to $33-34. Upward trend line will continue on though after. I hate to say it but they are treating oil like an OTC stock right now so ride the pump and watch out for the dump at around $36/37 IMO. In April I think oil hits $40.
Thank you and YWC for the nice words. Oil is really crazy right now so hard to predict (which is good, confirming bottom is in) but the chart is the chart and that's the best tool we have I think. I think we do well to wait on better prices here and have the chart set back again to continue uptrend. Right here right now it looks dangerous. I am holding some DWTI right now that I bought this morning. I think I'll sell that at crude $32 as I don't like to hold DWTI very much, after all I am a bull. Money is money though so I do enter DWTI from time to time if I think it is a "sure thing".
The WTI crude chart has to reset. As you know I watch the crude chart. I don't look at the UWTI/DWTI charts that much. The crude chart shows some indicators way over-heated. Oil has risen 33% from the lows of $26. I'm a bull as you know but even I flipped from UWTI to DWTI this morning. The crude chart is over bought and I think bears are licking their chops right now. Crude has even gotten well out in front of the new beautiful uptrend line. There will be a battle because bulls are still hyped up but I think this spot right here is bad for bulls. I think it is best to give it a couple of days to allow for the much needed pullback which will also reset over heated indicators. Also this candle today looks like it has short term reversal written all over it. We did fantastic here. I also think overall crude oil uptrend continues but we can get better prices in coming days I believe.
I'm a bull and even I sold UWTI and even bought DWTI. Crude chart is way over bought. Fast sto on WTIC is over heated big time and that was as of yesterday. Pull back to at least $32 I think for sure in coming days. I'll sell my DWTI there. I think it could drop lower but I'm not a bearish type so $32 on WTIC is my call for a pull back. Even bulls like me will want the pull back because the WTIC chart really needs to reset some.
EVLV I think is a good prospect here. RSI has been too low for too long. ADX has also moved past 50. I think it might get ants in its pants soon and starts moving in coming days. First pop target I would put on it is 60 cents. From there up to a buck is possible IMO. Grabbed some today on that little flush.
Nice one on ISBG Strong. Thank you for posting it the other day. I started watching it and got some at trips 5 today and sold them back at trips 8/9. Congrats to you on a nice play.
That EBIO is looking a lot better now. Looks like it might want to do a little something.
You very well could be right. I felt I was up enough on that trade. I will be looking and very willing to begin another one.
I'm going to go ahead and take some profit. I'm up 25 cents a share on this trade. One thing about DWTI/UWTI is get a profit, take a profit and just repeat that over and again.
Thank you sir.
Right now holding.
I agree and smart man.
Doesn't this make 2 weeks in a row draws? I seriously think North American production is falling fast. No one barely talks about it though. Have to search pretty hard to find something in the media about it. Iran increasing production news is everywhere all the time. North American production decline news is seldom seen. I predict North America production declines to under 8 million a day by the end of the year and that will out-weight Iran increases or anyone else. I believe the OPEC production "freeze" will work (freeze at record production isn't so hard to stick to). They won't have to cut. North America will do all the cutting that is needed as planned by OPEC when they started this.
Appreciate your thoughts. I personally believe that North American production will fall way way more then another 500k barrels a day. I believe that is very conservative. I'm thinking more like 1.5 to 2 million barrels a day less by the end of this year. No money into exploration. No money into new projects and wells and rigs way way down and etc etc. I don't see frankly how North American (that's including Canada) production doesn't at least fall to 8 million barrels a day. How can it not? SA did what they sought out to do. Pulverize the North American oil industry. We are witnessing just the real beginning effects of what they did. The effects are just now showing up in North American production data. I think many are far underestimating how pulverized North American production actually is, BUT along the way the data will show this. I say lets see what North American production is by the end of the year. I would bet it falls below 8 million barrels a day by then.
I'm chillin on the sidelines here. Have no current position in either D or U. One thing that I think is strange is that there is virtually no talk anywhere about North American production. North America had become the largest producer I believe or at least second. North American production is now falling and with no money having been put into new projects and exploration and etc for over the past year North American production will fall very fast I believe. It has already begun. There will be production cuts and they will be large, large enough to bring back supply/demand balance even if Iran increases, they will come from North America but for some reason people don't/can't see this. It was SA's plan all along. It just took longer then they expected but finally it started to happen a couple of months ago. IMO just before refineries finish up their maintenance that will be the time oil could really reverse. Also too by then maybe the speculators and analysts and media will have woken up and have taken notice to the decline in North American production.
LPLA, I like this one. Interlooper can you post the chart please? Over the weekend I'll learn how to post charts. I saw before the board gave directions and over the weekend I'll go to those posts and learn how to post them.
Ash I made a lot on UWTI today. I had bought it at 1.22 and 1.18 yesterday. Also LABU.
Speculators are looking pretty stupid right now that were saying there is a good chance of a recession. The data was not and isn't there in the US economy to back that up at all right now. The data today on consumer spending was good. A lot of short speculators have been trying to conjure up fear with a lot of BS that simply isn't backed up by data. I believed a correction was justified because of over-valuation and rate hikes usually dip a market. That fear conjuring by short speculators was to be expected too. They always resort to that.
Now Brent $31.58 and WTIC 27.60 so looking pretty good especially with the Japan market tanking yet again. That thing tanks 1000 points everyday. Unfortunately it is the first major market to open so all other markets keep opening seeing that Japan has crashed yet again.
Is this thing finally going to do something. Hope so, I got some 4s today.
Brent crude has already pretty much shown somewhat of a reversal the last two days. Brent crude now has a hammer. Last month WTI crude lead Brent. It looks like Brent is leading WTI crude this month. They go back and forth as "leader" although usually Brent is the leader. I'm 70% in now. Crude down 8 out of 9 days and 20% total during that small amount of time. Time for a bounce IMO.
Bought twice today. 40% in.
Yes I use that one too. Best one I have found. Accurate and real time. I've seen other that go out of whack at times and not real time also.
Yellen said that? She said they were going to still do 4 rate hikes this year? I don't think she said that. I think she said they will not REVERSE policy meaning go back to doing rate cuts. I'm pretty sure she left it kind of open on how many hikes they will do this year if any at all. Only thing she sounded confident on was that they would not have to CUT.
At any rate I think there need to be at least one hike this year, maybe two if they can. Should have started long ago IMO. By the time they finally started it kind got too late.
Nice job, congrats.
Brent crude has been up all day, almost all day. I know UWTI trades off of WTI crude not Brent however I think it is wise to keep an eye on both. Brent and WTI most of the time trade hand in hand but sometimes one will get ahead of the other either direction at times. Remember that doji in January that WTI had at 27 and then it went on a multi-day run? Well that same day that WTI was a little green with that doji Brent was red. Rollovers have rolls to play with that too but there are other times where it happens and neither is rolling over. Both should be watched is all I'm saying.
Boom! Your loving your 1.32 buy aren't cha :)
Thanks, lets see what happens. so far so good :) I'm still way over-weighted in cash.
I bought 1.30 crude down 7/8 days in a row. If it goes lower I'll keep on buying UWTI every 10 cents down. My portfolio is 80% cash. Time to put cash to work.
Your welcome, I agree with you assessments. I also saw the potential for LABU and roughly what should be the resistance level.