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HAUP - This company definitely has to be worth more than zero. I have some shares and bidding for more. I'm sure there are a few skeletons in the closet.
CADE (Obrien) - This one just isn't acting right. There are other opportunities out there and I gotta agree with the guys...too much exposure to areas that can really hurt them. Probably not of additional downside at this point, but who knows.
Added FHN this morning. Haven't been trading any of my NRZ shares lately. Added a few days ago in the 4s. My 4.51 bid never got filled. Too bad, I think it was only a few cents above that. REITs are a little weaker today after the big run yesterday. HYDI has been my biggest gainer for the day.
Bobwins (GORO) - is this your favorite gold stock? I'm actually looking to add one to my portfolio right now. Hold physical gold also. Thanks!
I’m wondering the exact same thing. Wade just hates tech. Lol.
CVU just keeps trucking. I sold a bit on the way up as I was a tad overweight.
OBrien- any predictions for market behavior over the short/long term? Your calls have been pretty good lately.
Wade,
I think a lot of companies are doing that just for CYA while this thing is going on. They want full disclosure in the event they don't meet expectations.
I'm just telling you that technology is making a HUGE push right now as a result of this. Stimulus checks are out there. Webcams are completely sold out. Can't find them anywhere. They are more than double MSRP on Ebay. I'm seeing AMD Processors selling out at local computers places. These are facts. If you want to short - i'm just not sure doing it in the technology sector is the right place to be.
Wade,
I think this is a dangerous sector to short right now. You have better earnings coming in. Just for anecdotal evidence- I was putting together new computer parts the other day and they are selling out of this stuff like crazy (especially AMD - their new Ryzen processors are great). Think about it - more people working from home. Computers, webcams, technology...all things that people need right now. Not the right sector to be short in.
SEAC - Tough to say whether this becomes a real issue or not. Probably a lot of CYA too. I know a lot of people might pump the brakes in terms of existing negotiations, etc.. Many companies will have an adverse reaction to COVID-19. It's definitely a wait and see for me.
SOXS - Aren't there better ways to short? Chart kinda says it all...
michael,
Do any of us really know what the consequences will be? Japan has been carrying a huge debt/gdp ratio for awhile now:
Name
National Debt to GDP Ratio
Population
Japan 237.54% 126,476,461
Venezuela 214.45% 28,435,940
Sudan 177.87%
Greece 174.15% 10,423,054
Lebanon 157.81% 6,825,445
Italy 133.43% 60,461,826
Eritrea 127.34% 3,546,421
Cape Verde 125.29% 555,987
Mozambique 124.46% 31,255,435
Portugal 119.46% 10,196,709
Barbados 117.27% 287,375
Singapore 109.37% 5,850,342
United States 106.70% 331,002,651
Wade-
I get what you're saying and the market should be going down. However, I learned a HUGE lesson in 2008/2009. Don't fight the Fed. The government HAS to create an environment where the market goes up. Everything is dependent on it. Eventually, you will see a much bigger event...but then your money won't matter much anyways. I missed out big by thinking the market would go even lower when it went under 7000. Cost me a lot.
NRZ - I should have scooped some up yesterday in the AH once I saw the NLY press release. It was available in the high 3s for a bit there. Would have been an easy 20-25%. Shoulda woulda coulda!
What are you guys liking right now for value plays? I'm still hesitant to buy anything until I see the next couple of weeks. The market has rallied quite a bit, but it's hard to predict the impact of this stimulus and any good Coronavirus related news.
NLY - Press Release after hours is really driving this higher. I own some. Also driving REML higher because of the exposure to NLY. I told my NRZ earlier, but may look to add some back. I am less bullish on NRZ because of the Moody's downgrade but feel it has been pretty beaten down. I must admit I got a little scared a few days ago and lightened my positions a little early on the upswing...it's just hard to judge the impacts in this sector at this time.
SEAC-
Put a stink bid out there but didn't get any. Much of the revenue they expected to see this quarter should translate into next quarter when they get some of these deals done. Should see continued growth into the next year or two. Should have taken some off the table today, but this is a long-term hold for me.
ITCC taking off - are common shareholders now getting something out of this buyout?
SuperDrive-
They better do something about the mortgage servicers; once the BKs start..it will all cascade from there. I mean I can't imagine they would let the entire sector go down.
researcher - do you own NLY, ORC and CHMI currently?
researcher - opinions on REML? Entry point? I sold off the last of my REITs last week, but i'm looking to get back in. It's hard to know how to value this sector right now.
IVR - Anyone buying at these levels?
KIK - I would probably look at cruise/airlines. Already have SAVE but I am thinking ETFs would probably be a safer bet because I don't want to be super concentrated in one airline specifically. SAVE just has a lot of cash on hand.
Run on banks? These are the types of headlines that almost become self-fulfilling.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/economy/banks-cash-coronavirus/index.html
When does this madness end?
Wade you are becoming quite the contrarian indicator :P
larry-
What are your favorites on that list? I already have some bids in for a few of those and others. Added EBIX and CUBI today also.
WHO just declared coronavirus a pandemic. Hmmm. I think we knew that was the case already but we'll see what impact this has on the markets.
Best Values:
Have you guys started making lists of your best value plays after this whole thing blows over?
I've been looking at the travel industry (although I think that will persist for awhile) and definitely some banks with lower exposure to the energy sector.
Mermelstein - I agree with you, but it's the optics of the whole situation. And now it's not just corona, but oil. I don't see a meaningful bounce right away, but ultimately this should be a good buying opp.
Bbotcs- you have some big cajones. I wouldn’t have touched it over 10. I wanted to short the hell out of it at that price. We are just talking additional mask revenue. Not the cure for cancer ;)
Mermelstein - 3% definitely seems high, but i'm not sure it's going to be that low. It's definitely more dangerous than the flu. Guess it really depends on how many people go undiagnosed.
bbotcs - It has been wild swings in each direction. It's tough to say how the rate cut, coronavirus aid, Biden support, etc.. is all going to factor into this.
In the next month or two, I'd expect a lot of volatility. I added more market puts when the market was up about 1000 today.
It's lunacy to think that the market would run right back to 29,xxx...but not outside of the realm of possibility.
Guess we'll all have to wait and see.
Coronavirus - 6 deaths in Washington State. This thing is probably a lot more widespread than current news is reporting. I sold my SH market calls on Friday and added more today.
researcher - Agree with you on the media, but this is going to have far bigger implications than even 9/11 did. A lot of lost revenue. Temporary, yes, but still a big deal.
APT at 43. Good chance it sees 50 today. Absolutely insane.
DYNT - omg, hit 4 this morning. I can’t believe I sold this yesterday.
Coronavirus impacts - The government may throw some sort of lifeline out there to reduce the impacts of this, but I think the market still has quite a bit of downside. The reality of this whole situation is that it's going to really have a significant impact on many different kinds of business
Funny thing is if this virus hits 20-30 years ago, you wouldn't see this kind of attention. People would probably assume it was a bad flu season. Lower impact to everything. The age of instant information can really have dramatic consequences worldwide.
bbotcs - I've already checked Amazon a couple days ago and it's insane..there's literally none available. But even with APT getting $10 million to potentially higher orders, it's still not realistically enough to drive the stock price this high. It's all fear driven.
Hell - i'm supposed to fly to the other part of the U.S. in a couple weeks and even i'm having second thoughts. I don't want to get detained or have anything else happen while i'm gone...you know?
Any of you guys worried about domestic travel right now?
RNsiders - You rarely see stuff like this. It's too bad there are no short shares available. It will be one of the easiest plays you will ever see...if you have the guts to hold through the volatility :P
APT- 28s now.
RNsiders- Options are just STUPID right now. I won't touch those with a 10 foot pole. You know this thing is going to come back to planet earth, but who knows when. So much uncertainty right now. I guarantee you no one will want to hold stocks into this weekend unless they do something tomorrow to counteract.