Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Actually, I was a bit off. May be around ~25.96.
The neckline looks to be around ~21. So if this inv. H+S plays out, take the neckline (~21) - the bottom of the head at (16.04)= 4.96. Then take the difference (4.96) + neckline (~21) = 25.96.
We need to break the neckline at ~21 though.
"The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bullishness: an upward slope is more bullish than downward slope."
"Price Target: After breaking neckline resistance, the projected advance is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the bottom of the head. This distance is then added to the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered, as well. These factors might include previous resistance levels, Fibonacci retracements or long-term moving averages."
Link to I-H+S
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b
Actually, I was a bit off. May be around ~25.96.
The neckline looks to be around ~21. So if this inv. H+S plays out, take the neckline (~21) - the bottom of the head at (16.04)= 4.96. Then take the difference (4.96) + neckline (~21) = 25.96.
We need to break the neckline at ~21 though.
"The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bullishness: an upward slope is more bullish than downward slope."
"Price Target: After breaking neckline resistance, the projected advance is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the bottom of the head. This distance is then added to the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered, as well. These factors might include previous resistance levels, Fibonacci retracements or long-term moving averages."
Link to I-H+S
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b
$VXO from May-June time frame looks like it's an inverse H+S, we a possible move up to ~26.94.
OT CJ,
I remember taking an Agricultural Econ class in college many years ago. (14 years LOL.) Anyhow, we talked about the carrying capacity of the earth and how many humans the Earth could possibly support. I think if I remember correctly the number is around 10.5-11 billion. After that amount, all the arable land, water, commodity type resources won't be able to fully support the entire human population. (May be by then technology will change everything.)
Anyhow, the estimates were by 2025 8 billion and by 2050 we may see that number hit 10-11 billion as more people age in the 80-90s+ and medical treatment is better. I hope I do not see that in my life time personally. It may be catastrophic. Predictions are mass starvation, more poor, a run on commodities, and the destruction of the earth in general.
Any major storms could cause massive death and starvation, as can be seen right now in SE asia in Thailand and Myanmar with the over population. Look at India, and other parts like Philippines where there isn't enough rice and it costs too much and people are starving.
BTW - I saw "China rising" on the discovery Channel last year and they are having a huge issue on arable land. Most of the NW and SW is all desert and the NE is turning to a desert. (China is trying to fight back by planting tons of trees you see it all over if you've been to Beijing recently. Although the sandstorms are crappy. Your face is raw and your throat is sore.) There is only about 3% good arable land in China while the U.S. has a lot more so we are blessed in a sense. The good land in China is being built on with roads, and buildings so there is less food being produced. The four 2 hr episodes stated that china is agriculturally at it's carrying capacity and an environmental disaster (food when tested has chemicals/heavy metals so high in most of the vegetables that FDA would highly recommend people not to eat it if they were sold in the U.S. That is scary since I was in southern China for a week.) Anyhow, again any weather or earthquake type catastrophe and China will be in trouble and will need to rely on massive imports to feed their population.
Lefty, are you stating that the reshuffling will bullishly affect the RUT?
Foot, China and India is planning to drill sideways off the coast of cuba into the gulf for oil. You think they care if there is an oil spillage or an environmental disaster? It's not their backyard. Why doesn't congress (the dems) allow drilling in the gulf. Yet they scream about bush doing nothing about high energy! I am sure the U.S. can do it much more safely as it is our backyard if there is a disaster. Bush can't do much with an energy policy if congress shoots them all down. Meanwhile joe q. public blames the current admin for everything. I'm not saying Bush didn't make mistakes (I have two sisters that are medical doctors, officers in the army, one is in Iraq for past year), but it's hard to do anything when congress shoots everything down.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/09/news/economy/oil_cuba/index.htm
Yeah, you're right, no one likes losing money unless you are Warren Buffet or Gates who both are giving billions away. BTW, I don't think stops would've help me in this case. It gap down so much this morning and has been just sitting in a range at this point.
Yeah, MACD looks bad, but price is the ultimate arbitrator. So I am being very cautious about my longs at the moment. I'm sure there will be a big battle at 1950 if we start heading back down towards that direction.
On another note look at the MACD on these two: OIH & XLE. Both are sitting at or near trendline. A break of trend and a negative divergence setup and I may go short, although a small position. You never know with these commodities and sinking dollar. I was just telling dan how I recently got burnt on Gold. Bought at the 50ema 2 days ago, it's gapped down and looks like it's going to close both gaps. GLD also looks like an island reversal. Not good, I will be closing today. Hopefully it makes some sort of attempt to close the down gap. (Good thing I bought a small position, I hate losing.)
OT - Sorry to hear about the back too. I know what you mean. When I was 24 I got 3 bulging discs. It screwed me up for a year, sciatic nerve issues on both legs, pain and numbness going down to the toes. Anyhow, it's been a slight problem ever since, the back goes every now and then. I usually have a bad back once a year.
Getting shellacked on that one. I bought right on the 50ema. It looks like it wants to close both those gaps. Hopefully it will close the gap up and I can get out quick and run for the hills.
Dan said he hurt his back. It's been killing him for 2 weeks. I blew my back out too. (Been a week) It still hurts but now I can walk and sit with just minor pains.
2xer, thought the same thing last night before I saw your post. $NDX is still a long, although there's a potential H+S coming up. We need to make new highs soon or else... close the gap, move back down to 1850 from the neckline of 1950.
OT Man... I've been out of it. Life has been throwing me a bunch of lemons.
I got severely food poisoned and it lasted 3 days. It'll be a while before I eat sushi again. I felt like I was hung over for 3 days cause I couldn't keep anything down. Then I threw my back out last on top of that. I can finally sit and walk without much pain. (May be it was from all that vomiting. LOL)
Time of month/End of Month Ramp, 401K deposits? or is bush right about the money stimulus starting to take affect. Gas here in Seattle is $4.17 for regular/unleaded 87. I am glad I fill up once a month and walk everywhere.
I have a lot of catching up to do.
OT Foot, I had a long discussion about Obana vs. McCaian all night long from my Wash D.C. buddy visiting in Seattle. Obama is just plain bad. 1) He will raise corp/long term taxes. Who does that in a potential recession?? He will cause a possible recession/depression. 2) His stance on foreign policy is terrible. Why would the U.S. put Chaves or Amanajed on the same level as the U.S. To think that the president of the U.S. would meet with them directly is just plain crazy. Why give crazy dictators even the inkling that they are on the same footing as the U.S. or other allies in Europe when these 3rd world countries are nothing more than commodities and not world players. 3) The final straw is just the blatant lack of experience. It's not about black or white or asian and hispanic. (I am Asian so I know about plight and chips on shoulders. We harbor none it's all about opportunity and making the best of your situation. My dad came to this country with just 2 suitcases in the 1960s where he was spat on and told we don't rent to your kind.) With Obama its more about a lack of experience. What has Obama done since 1/06? Not much. Is he a vehicle of change? I don't know but I do know that he has done nothing as as a senator but talks a lot about change and has been campaigning since 2007 and 2008 as a democratic nominee for president. Talk about hardship. My dad is a legal U.S. citizen but loathes the fact that there are illegals. He worked hard and through the proper channels in order to be a Naturalized U.S. Citizen, he mastered English and 3 other languages (Spanish, Filipino and Chinese), but yet he finds it hard to accept that illegal aliens can cross the border so easily without the ability to understand or learn english nor care about the U.S. He knows more about U.S. history and can name every president from George Washington. How many U.S. Citizen can do that? I certainly can't! It breaks my heart sometimes to think about what previous generations had to go through and how easy it is for me or others.
"RSI5 & RSI2 both have high % wins on a buys here for a trade.
If down on th, scale in...again for a trade."
Fish what do you mean by "if down on th"? Do you mean at the open/1st hour?
EDIT - BTW airlines are scary right now. I don't think 1/2 of them will be in business when all is said and done. It's insane to travel right now. It's just expensive with the tack on surcharges. My company is really trying to wind down on the traveling when possible. I use to travel 2-3 weeks/month now not much anymore thank God. It's nice to be home once in a while.
Woodfish, now I'm second guessing myself and rotation out of tech could be possible into the Dow as it is safer. Hmm... should've thought about that before I pulled the trigger.
$NDX, 1957ish, sitting at support for now. I'm not a trinq guru, but 2.47 looks close enough for a short-term bottom.
Anyone buying the close? I just picked up some QLDs. Hopefully I am not catching a hot, sharp, burning knife. Looking for a DCB tomorrow.
Gleno, I have been discussing the CPC and CPCE with foot they both look slightly lagging as an indicator for Tops. Bottoms appear to be great though. I think with tops stops need to be in place or another indicator needs to be used in conjunction. Let me know if you find something good to work with the CPC or CPCE (the holy grail as one may put it LOL...)
Blasher thanks. The QQQQ Seasonal chart of yours doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies about going long for more than a couple days. The Weekly power index graph shows down for Weeks 27,28,29. I'll have to see how this plays out.
Anyone take a position before the close? I am looking for a good entry to go back long. Will wait and see, nasties look like they may correct to the 200dma, 1958 and bounce back up?
Gleno, good trade. I had a crappy entry from last Friday afternoon, 54.81. Sold out at 55.52 today. I need to better refine my entries/exits. A day too early.
I think blasher is right you need to be a subscriber. I'm seeing a daily chart with a 1 month time frame.
Yeah I told my brother to take some off the table last thursday before earnings, just in case. He refused. He says that China is going to depend on them for materials on reconstruction efforts after the quake.
Yeah I should've waited one day for a better SDS entry. Still in from end of the day Friday.
What's up with the $VXO??? Trin topped and CPC starting to curl up.
Oman, you would think that with oil/gas being so expensive it would eat into their bottom line $ just like Fedex/UPS. Did they warn or are they going pass the fuel surcharge deal like the airliners to their customers? My brother got in at $58 on the last dip. He's pretty happy right now.
OT - Gleno, that is part of freewill. God gave human beings the ability to choose. That is a tenant by the way in most religions whether Christian, Islamic, Hindu, or Buddhist. It is a shame when people chose to hurt/harm then to help. People will be judged in the end whether in this life or the next, ie - the pearly gates or through karma.
Yeah still holding... Good thing I had the 2 back to back meetings. The SPX needs to crack 1425, and I'd feel a lot better.
Crappers, hope not. I may bail soon on my SDS. Good thing it was a small position.
BTW - should've waited for Foot's $trin top signal.
Foot, thanks. Money management and taking proper positions took a long time for me to learn. Trading is tough and I've been learning ever since the tech bubble burst hence my handle. I think you're onto something about the boys. It's always about sector rotation. First it was Housing stocks. They jam those up only to let them fall. Now oil/gold/commodities which will probably drop that like a ton of bricks soon, while they've been distributing and pumping up the Nasdaq/Tech. Pretty soon, Nasdaq/tech will be out of favor and the game goes on in pumping jamming up the financials since they are the worse/sickliest stocks to own at the moment. This is all speculation of course. It's hard keeping track of all these sectors. It's like a full-time job.
OT - Heh... Bush asked his Saudi buddies to pump more oil. They basically told him there wasn't enough demand. WTF? Those greedy bastards, either there's not enough demand or they can't like this article I sent to Gleno about how Iran may run out of oil soon.
"Gleno, I think the problem is a lot worse then Iran wants to let on. There has been talks about Iran running out of oil as soon as 2015 and may be that is why they are thinking of limiting supplies so they can limp on a little longer. I remember reading an article about it a year ago. This is an older article that I found. Edit - Without oil we know what will happen to Iran, they will be pretty much nothing... That is why they are probably trying to build nuclear plants and arms while they have oil revenues. If they don't Iran won't even be a small player in the world, they will be back to the mud huts, dirt roads, etc."
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=29252864
Foot, some say the $CPCE may be a better measure. We're not at the topping part yet, but very close. I don't know enough about the $CPCE (Equity Put/Call) so I guess that is my project this weekend to read about it and see how that is different than the $CPC.
Foot, I was looking at this CPC chart yesterday, and it appears that tops can be problematic to detect, but bottoms using the CPC chart are great! Look at 5/07 - 7/07, the market grinded higher and then in late July 07 the market tanked.
Dollar has been breaking down and a back test of the 50dma is quite possible. MACD is rolling over and 72.40 better hold or else look out below.
Foot, took a position in SDS in the last hour before the close. Basically the same thing as on May 2 with the black hanging man and last time it happened on the $NDX on May2 we were down 4-5 days. May be this time is different. (EDIT will put in a tight stop of course may be they rally this monkey - SPX up to 1440+)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=29366971
Geez... My brother is in China right now, north of Beijing studying to be more proficient/fluent in Mandarin. He said the situation is pretty pitiful right now. But, amazingly with so many middle class folks in China they are donating money on an unprecedented level. Even the poor Chinese folks are too. I don't know if this is true but he said that most Chinese people even if they are poor as dirt farmers save on average 30-40% of their yearly income. Kinda shocking considering the majority of the U.S. population spends all their income and then some. Anyhow, I don't expect many Americans to give since everyone here is slammed by inflationary prices, food, natural gas, and gasoline. I was thinking about donating but am leary of the Red Cross. Didn't they get over billions of dollars in donation during 911 and not one 911 victim got a dime? One last note, my brother also said that 100yuan can go a long way especially in the poorer area where the Earthquake strucked. 100yuan is about $14 and that is the average monthly wage in that area.
Yeah I'll keep a tight stop. Just in case I am wrong and there is an Elcrapo rampo on Monday. (Edit also, now all the 401K deposits are in for the bi-weekly pay period of 5/14-5/16.)
But... It looks like a black hanging man and last time it happened on the $NDX on May2 we were down 4-5 days. May be this time is different.
(Scroll down on my old post to foot).
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=28998956
"Hanging Man is a top reversal pattern / bearish reversal pattern.
It may be formed at the end of an uptrend, or during a bounce within a downtrend, or at the resistance.
For a hanging man to form, the price must first trade much lower than where it opened, and then it rallies to close near its high at the end of the day. The long lower shadow formed shows some indications that the selling pressures might just begin. Although the bulls managed to regain control and drive the price higher at the close, the appearance of selling pressure raises some concerns.
The next trading day needs to confirm the Hanging Man’s bearish signal with a strong bearish candle (e.g. a gap down or a long red / black candle on a high volume)."
You can find anything on Youtube now and it is by and far the biggest hog of Bandwidth on the internet.
5mins tutorial on hangman Candle vs a hammer candle. Black Hangman happens at the top of an uptrend and hammers are reversals on a bottom trend.
Gleno, just added some SDS. We'll see what happens next week. The boyz parked it right under the 200dma.
2xer, your thoughts are pretty similar to my thoughts. I think we'll be heading down after OE as well. Plus, it also coincides with bradley's thoughts too with turn date coming next week and another coming on 6/7. LOL
OT - Gleno tell me about it I went for a 6 mile trail run yesterday and I was hurting. My dog was hurting more wearing that fur coat. She could barely keep up on the run. We didn't get as warm as Portland, but that it was still warm for Seattle standards.
Denmo, sorry to hear about the mess. BTW- when you say "THISCLOSE" are you pertaining to the fact that you're closing your long positions?
TIA.
Ok thanks for the update. I've been in cash during this entire OE week. I'm going to wait for the next major down signal which I think is soon after the gap closes.