Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I don't normally pay close enough attention to maintain a trading position, but given that volatility is likely to continue forever doing so should really be a priority. Would you please consider sharing when you're strongly considering taking action? I'm not interested in your actual positions or moves, more a sense of when conditions are approaching ripeness.
"CKJ had a fast runup, I might be inclined to move from that to one of the low-priced 50s if it goes up much more. [Todamooon!]"
'Moonasooooonah!' was always my fave.
Except that 1:1 exchange is not substantiated anywhere. It's rumor only so far as I can tell.
Would love to see a real source on this, as then I would adjust my investment methods, but at this point I think that this 1:1 exchange started as a total fable and took on the tinge of reality because it was repeated so frequently. From a logical standpoint it doesn't make any sense, unless by 1:1 you mean that a common share in ForF will be exchanged for one common share in NewCo and that 1 ForF pref will be exchanged for one NewCo pref.
Highly unlikely.
It could mean that, if the 1:1 exchange is true.
I don't believe it though; there's no substantiated evidence. All we have is oft-repeated hearsay.
Remember, the plural of 'anecdote' is not 'data'.
It seems unwise to base one's investment thesis on hearsay you picked up on an anonymous internet message board. This 1:1 exchange concept has been bandied about since the Ebano days before delisting.
It's not supported by any official suggestion anywhere so far as I can tell, and I've been paying attention since 2008.
Me: Not buying the 1:1 conversion; it's a total wishful fabrication.
Where is this information from? It's very unlikely to be true.
Helloo? Is anyone home?
(Is this thing on?)
The fact that you're paying tax indicates a profitable trade. If you don't close your position, you can't profit; isn't that what this is about?
You're always better off paying the tax.
" - it's theft."
It all depends on your perspective. The gubmint could take the position that "Had we NOT interceded the companies would have gone bust and you would have ended up with nothing anyway, so the net result if we run these companies into the ground by 2018 you're in the same spot you would have been."
I'm long, and I'm not saying that the above position is righteous. What I *am* saying is that if you're counting on the government to do the right thing, well.... "Hope is not a strategy."
"..."payment in full" as not been defined."
Agree.
Keep banging the sadboy drum, Joe- I find your insistence on looking at the facts excellent counterpoint to some of the unfounded optimism on this board.
To be clear, I am somewhat optimistic, but if it all goes to h*ll there will be no surprise on my part. It's politics, not biz reality, and consequently chaotic.
Defensive Positioning (take two...)
[sorry for last message, hit send inadvertently.]
I too became concerned regarding Cramer's interest, and think he could be pumping for his buds.
Holding FMCKJ in 4 separate accounts, in amounts from 2000-11000 shares, with buy-ins from .60-90, I set GTC limit sells at $6 for roughly 20% of my holdings.
If this comes to pass I'll show a modest profit on the trade even if we eventually get screwed...
Defensive Positioning
"What makes you think hedge funds are your friend?"
275%! Possibly (*possibly!*) their interests align with ours, but I wouldn't count on it.
I'm in New Bedford as we speak; the Lobster Roll hereabouts is freaking great....
OT: Other opportunities: QCOR
On sale now. See Seeking Alpha for the latest; IMO Lazard, Brian Wilson (not *that* Brian Wilson!), and PropThink have it right.
Look at the sales growth for the last 2 years, and realize that the stock price was mauled by an illegitimate short attack.
Long, with a one year price of $50-70 and possibly much more after that.
"...Washington will never let an opportunity that the insiders can make tons of money slip away..."
This; it's been the lynchpin of my FnF thesis from the start. The primary danger we face is that the beefier power block will decide they can do better with some alternative to FnF.
"...reading too much into it."
Not at all. The fact that the information is old is immaterial to the question, which is "why this news, now?"
Stuff like this is orchestrated.
"...you have to wonder why this is being made public now..."
You sure do. Never forget it; there are some real characters at work, and there is a lot of money to be made/lost.
"AIG Fix-It Man..."
That article is a beauty indeed!
OT/Lehman/EPIQ/Timetable
Hell, bro- I dunno if I learned *anything*. I'm new to these issues and know pretty much bupkis. There doesn't seem to be any 'expert commentary' along the lines of David Sims' or the various hedgies outlines of why the FnF prefs may be risky but good investment.
Are you saying that the instruments to which that link applies are different from the Captial Trusts?
Again, I don't know hardly anything about Lehman, and if it's half as complex as FnF it'll take a couple weeks at least to get up to speed :)
"...stay on FNF topic." Disagree.
"...no other claims after that date would be honored."
That doesn't sound good!
Lehmans?
LD, since you're so loquacious today would you sketch out the background and your thesis?
I find when I try to explain fnf the sheer complexity of the situation is hard for people to grasp; I feel that way about LBros.
I think ACAS has some tricks up their sleeve.....
First, there are the Business Loan Trusts that should be completely wrapped up early next year. This will improve ACAS' access to funding.
Second, their leverage is miniscule- current debt to equity is .14. They've got a lot of room to lever up.
Third, they have Net Operating Losses that are projected to shield earnings from taxes for the next several years.
Fourth, ECAS is doubly-discounted. If/when the Euro markets finally stabilize we should see solid gains here.
Finally, I said, "...$30 sometime in 2015." Could be March, could be December. Pay your money, make your choice.
Other stocks to watch: ACAS
Love it. Took it hard during the downturn, but management has been executing brilliantly- check the price from Jan 2008.
Still in mid-recovery; my expectations are $20 by the end of the year and $30 sometime in 2015.
Rather than paying dividends now they're buying back stock. A lot of it. Share price has been 60-70% of NAV for most of that time, so this is an investment that will really pay off.
Check Seeking Alpha, there are a lot of good articles. Read but don't place too much weight on a recent one 'ranking' the BDCs; ACAS doesn't present well when evaluated as a BDC largely because they're not paying dividends at this time.
My largest holding by far.
Philip van Doorn!
Nice layout of the issues. I checked last time I saw the 'CKJ coupon quoted- the prospectus says 8.xx% (can't remember perzactly, mea culpa)
Realize in advance that these guys are looking for bubbles to inflate, however. They're motivated by their own profit drives and strategies, and likely have already bought a bunch of shares with the intent to drive it up as fast and hard as possible. Snare the public's interest and then...
sell into strength.
Congressional greed has been part of my investment thesis from the start. Eventually they'll come to the same realization we did long ago, that FnF *are* the optimum solutions, and when that happens (happened?) they'll talk smack like mad while buying up shares on the downlow.
"If we all believe that congress has been buying jr preferred all along, then the politics is only putting face on in to get elected"
I remember, from '09 at least, right?
Used to be I thought I'd take profit for sure when ACAS hits$20, but now I think $30 may be a more appropriate level.
It was you and Ski twigged me to fnf (so... thanks! :) )
IMO it depends on what you hold now. I think ACAS represents an easy 30% by the end of this year and should see $30 in 2015. It's not the 8x or Nx of prefs or commons, but it's about as close to a sure thing as you're likely to find.
Two year 85%-likely double vs ?year ??% is clearly a philosophical question.
ACAS in 3 years should really be something. This one I do pitch to friends.
Sorry- that's not clear.
"Of course, I'll not be in the position that the Devil will be in if we're right, either :)"
I mean 'we longs', not 'we sad boys'.
...adding...
Maybe, but I still think it's a small money bet. I'm more certain about QCOR, tbh, and more certain yet about ACAS. Prefs and common have a place in a speculative slice, sure, but maybe 5%, *maybe*. I pitched the prefs to friends under a dollar but now, never.
Of course, I'll not be in the position that the Devil will be in if we're right, either :)
Agree- FnF could go to zero still and those who refuse to believe that are deluding themselves.
I'm not a sad boy, truly; it's just that from the beginning (2008) I've (we've!) said that ultimately the outcome will depend on politics and not on business logic. That is still true.
It's possible we'll score- everything we've said has come to pass with respect to improving fiscal help and the drive to kill them, but that drive is still in place for some in power, so....
I'm not adding, but neither am I reducing my holdings: hero or zero, still.
Damn. I tolja.
"Commons down sharply; 10k out soon?
What a surprise that would be- a downward twang in the commons before positive news ;)"
post from yesterday
Common takes another hammering.
Is this pre-release positioning/accumulation or countersuit rumor/news?
Commons down sharply; 10k out soon?
What a surprise that would be- a downward twang in the commons before positive news ;)
WTH are you guys on about?
Sincerely curious. :)
I think there's not much we can really be sure on other than:
a) They're making money.
b) There's no obvious good solution to the 'GSE Problem' so it's gone unsolved.
and c) the political dimension is a threat. If this were based solely on business fundamentals we'd be set, but it's not. Or at least... not yet!
"As for the GSEs, we might as well get some rest, it's gonna take some time."
Agree. This latest has us all tizzed up because there's been no news since August. At the same time, while a renewed dialog at least gives us something to talk about, there's been no real fundamental change.
GLTA; holding steady (hero or zero, though my psychic gf says to take profit at $6 on 'ckj.)
Ha! I wish :)
First, I only provided the link. It was k-i-s-s-i-n-g that reminded us most recently.
Second, I'm afraid you've misinterpreted what the quoted statement means. These divs are NOT cumulative, so the ones we're not getting this year (or last, or....) are gone forever. It's only the redemption quarter that's protected I think.
'CKJ is exactly that way- I checked last night.
"The Preferred Stock is not redeemable prior to Decem-
ber 31, 2012. On December 31, 2012 and on each fifth
anniversary thereafter, we will have the option to redeem
the Preferred Stock, in whole or in part, at the price of
$25 per share plus the amount that would otherwise be
payable as the dividend for the quarterly dividend period
that ends on the redemption date, accrued through and
including the redemption date, whether or not declared."
From here:
'CKJ Prospectus
Yeah, could be huge news.