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from gambling perspective SPY is a GOOD short right now.
If it pays it's real good.
If it doesn't, then the loss is minimal.
And recent highs are pretty clear line in sand for closing a loser short bet - not far away, which makes the gambling a good gamble..
363 imo is the magic short number, but I think anything would do, even here.
imo NOT a daytrade but a multi-day trade.
Chart is clear - rise above and close above the 2-weeks triangle is a buy, drop bellow and close bellow the recent low, is a hold then shorts.
TODAY it would be cheap a such endeavor, or BEFORE the drop (if happens). After the market shows volatility then bye bye cheap , all extra-expensive premiums, esp puts.
Why "gambling" ???
Because trend is actually up.
Assuming is true about leveraged ETF,
Isn't then this a strategy in the wings?
90% of times is just big odds.
So if one rises 20%, then sell and take an opposite leveraged ETF to collect the 50% retracement. That would be 10% move.
Or just wait for one to go 20% and just trade the retracement..
Sorry brother (I actually am sorry), but the dollar LOST value.
INFLATION INFLATION INFLATION
And then some
And more to come
Very very very very VERY sad situation we are all in.
With a stable dollar you are correct.
With a decaying dollar your formula becomes incorrect.
The Value of dollar MUST be included into any such valuation formulas.
If you don't have the slightest idea how to do it is fine.
I don't have the slightest idea either.
I'll be glad if someone steps up and show us how to do that.
But one thing I do know, inflation DOES skew such valuation formulas and badly.
Is not so simple even with a formula accounting for inflation. One important thing is to evaluate as precise as possible the dollar decay/inflation number itself. We get all kind of BS numbers.
We have own feelings and opinions.
I think to get an accurate number it has to be a minimum/median wage versus something that we use often and made like a basket (median cost of coffee, public transit, milk, lowest priced meat of chicken/beef, property tax as percentage and few similar "inflation meters" items)
Gold, energy, and most other items can pendul or fluctuate pretty badly, but true essentials at basic level will fluctuate little or nothing at all but keep steady with true inflation.
In this environment if I'd trade based on PE I won't go far.
You seem very bearish, your posts reflect this. We all have reasons to worry or be optimistic. Choosing one side is individual. Choosing right, is beneficial.
Quote: "Anybody else feel like it’s early June again or is it just me?"
To your question:
I wish others would answer it too instead of jerking around with nonsense issues.
What I see is that in early June SPY was clonking from bellow into resistance. Use weekly charts for better view.
Whereas today SPY is above resistance ... just have clonked down on violated resistance turned support.
I understand what you feel. Possible. Possible if SPY goes sideways and violates this breakout ... to downside.
The last few days of jerking around (no trampoline!!!!!) tells me that the buying is kept to a minimum (aka distribution, aka bull trap)
Only a close on Friday of say around 365 would negate the negativity although not exactly totally.
December coming. Santa won't be caught alive even in (half empty) malls.
So I think Mr Grinch is coming to town with lots of coal.
Question is if the PPT will do something about that and rally the SPY anyway or ... "let it slide, let it slide, let it slide..."
I think we have to take it one day at a time
Literally
I don't use camarilla, zero experience.
I wish someone would use Gann lines around here, maybe I learn a thing or two with that.
Rs (R1, R2 etc) I know of, tried few times, sadly it proved not good (reliable) enough for me, so I do not use.
Also too mathematical so easy for algos to play us..
I use congestion areas and candles to establish resistance/support.
Far more reliable for me.
imo for example:
run segments = market makers/computers run
congestion blob/areas = us (the goofy traders aka the sheeple)
Candles have different importance. For example 1min is not the same as 4 hour candle or daily.
But different timeframes candles are used differently by market participants. But that's what I use for the like of "R1" R2" etc etc
Oftentimes I feel I know very little
The market ate most of my lunch.
The decay for me holding in a sideways for more than a week did it.
Still profit but crumbs.
I was also down -30% so crumbs look good by comparison..
You eat what you can, when you can,,
my work on this showed a subframe.
By comparison your work (thanks) looks like a super-step, in other words like jumping over a flight of steps on a ladder.
The difference - the sub-steps (or normal steps), which in turn have their own sub-steps, reveal a relationship of fulfillments. In other words, if price stumbles on a sub-sub-step, then highly likely top stumble on sub-step, then surely to stumble your mega(multiple)-steps, thus failing of leg-up of oepm.
Likewise, if sub-sub-step is climbing properly, then odds increase for sub-step1 to succeed, then odds are good for mega-step1 to succeed --- and so on.
No, I did NOT made any work on (your) mega-steps. Only on sub-sub-steps and sub-steps. My coming to this board coincided with other changes and with me being kinda forced to abandoning the oepm work due to severe time constrains. That was many years ago. Furthermore, my work was on QQQ not SPY, and at the time I observed a significant difference between the two in this regard.
My work also revealed a corrections sub-step where you would be advised to add to positions.
Furthermore, this work showed a strong relationship between some sma-ema and oepm, and this being one major factor that "told me" ..."meh, it's ok, just carry on with the emas/smas, you don't have time anyway for that crap, you'll be ok" .. Lol
Mega steps to me are too simplistic, and probably work best/fine in go-go parabolic market we been having.
imo it is a work that has a lot of work yet to it.
Thanks again Freda, you are a nice person too.
I enjoy your timely to point humor. (similar to my daughter's)
Good stuff!
p.s. I have looked in NN posted charts/tables quite few times, saved a bunch, but never actually saw any true guidance. Don't know why.
It feels weird to read some people here saying oooh aaah, when I, a person that actually have personal extensive work in the matter should understand and therefore see it ahead of others. BTW my work has not been inspired by anyone back in time, it was my own progress in charting and market study - later on I saw few other people commenting on similar measured advancements.
Oh the irony is so hilarious
In desert a glass of water is far more valuable than a $1mill bar of gold.
So circumstance.
My discussion is not about your daily and immediate needs of life.
It's about standard of value. You can NOT make a standard around iron or copper or anything else.
It's about two things, standard of value and store of value.
You can NOT store enough useful iron or useful water to reflect that. It's physically impossible.
With Gold you CAN.
It's not about a necklace LOL
Altho ... try showing off to your woman with some barrels of water or bars of iron vs ... Gold necklaces..
LOL
Gold is standing apart from ALL other (GOOD) commodities you look at.
Why?
Because Gold is the ONLY threat to USD as reserve status.
USD became reserve PROMISING (LYING) that will guarantee gold delivery !!!
When delivery was called in ... USA reneged on the promise and decoupled the Gold-USD.
The world was too incompetent to respond and fell for it and carried on until today..
So the former King (GOLD) is still there !!!
In the waiting !!!
Tick Tock !!!
(some charting has been made where DOW and SPY were priced in GOLD.
It's too early imo but it's a right angle nevertheless - especially in long term charts)
I have this belief for a very long time. You are the first person to say it to me.
Quote: "thinking has switched from land grab to economy grab"
To me EURO creation was just that.
I am not sure if it's preferable to real war, as I envision real war to follow anyway as the "winners" will demand pay (if not paid).
Far into the future? Who knows, but that's what I see.
No, gold will not replace money, never.
I was talking about status of value, or reserve currency status.
Situation now is all look to USD for standard of value. Since it's failing (badly, of course) then other means are used , less "USA offending" like real estates and stocks and companies and such.
I am looking forward to gold to replace not the money but the standard of money.
In other words even if you have only ONE ton of gold in the world (so quantity is irrelevant), and is wherever (so country of holding also irrelevant), we can (it will happen) attribute value to goods and services and fiat currencies pegged to gold ounce. So if a country increase money supply by 20% then because the gold standard, that currency will be diluted vs gold ... and ANY other currency that did not dilute.
Since goods are denominated also in gold, if a country has 10% surplus (exports) then that currency is elevated by 10% because it would be as if they had 10% more gold (products).
It's really extremely simple concept.
Nobody has the ability to time the USD downfall.
Not now.
If things (financial "clouds") gather, then just like in charting we can then have a better picture of timing.
We have to be as prepared as we can (trade only long on assets, especially gold), and profit from these GOOD times and make as much as we can out of them - because - as a rule good things usually don't last..
It can last and can well happen after we all go to heaven.
370? I know it seems impossible, but what if T congratulates B ?
What the market reaction would be..
I can't ignore this angle.
So far the refusal did not tank squat.
I wonder what effect the reversal could have in the market.
370 ?
I ignore the downdrafts in Gold and trade only the long side.
Gold is the real currency bar none (except energy or weaponry if badly needed and only for those periods)
Gold can't go up so long USD is reserve and this status is used to suppress Gold by the fed. It is dragged up by physical demand, but not really going up like say a company like Tesla stock or Google stock.
So if foreigners diminish their USD reserves then YOU KNOW the end is approaching and very possible a nasty (out of desperation) war.
ONE country will NOT dare confront the status quo as fears retribution, but I foresee a UNION of countries that will pull it off.
Which ones? I do NOT know or even envision.
It has to be countries with resources and technology and manufacturing and economic surpluses (who lose big today because USD reserve status). Then it has to be done "behind back" and then in the open. THAT will be the aha moment and tipping point for US of A.
ALL eyes will be on the "consequences". If not much happens, then ... others will join in , and will become a magnet, a snowball.
Then financial change in the world will swiftly follow and near ZERO US foreign deficit (as will not be able to afford it anymore).
Gold will be denominated in?
NOTHING
It will be everything else denominated in gold.
It all goes round
If this theory will be false, then ... which country will be willing to have ZERO gold in holdings...
I hate to say this but trading GOLD in any form you are effectively fighting the Fed and that's a nasty adversary.
The Fed and gang are suppressing the GOLD with paper contracts.
It's really hard to go against that at least in short term
If you somehow time the moment when paper "loses it" then you can become instant billionaire.
The rush to cover would be beyond sensational.
So far I see control is still there
Who knows what happens next
Not that I disagree, but how do we trade that?
Sometimes we can.
But looking at this last event SPY cut right through a DOWNward 10, then rallied madly ... so by the time 10 turned UPwards SPY was already a rocket in the stratosphere.
I would like to see what you think in this matter.
My take is that like everything else this too fails now and then.
The trick is to figure out when this is to be ignored or suspended as consideration.
In this case it was the (obvious) cycle that did it, where the buying programs started regardless of 10 status bent or not or how bent.
Now coming on this board full of FUNDAMENTAL (BS) opinions it all seems negative and desperate and no long opportunity EVER exists..
THIRD day FLAT!!! No money on sidelines?!
Good charting and analysis
imo Oct lows in this chart is a given
and Sept lows are pretty much the same with a 80% chance to be reached or broken
July highs deserve a support line - I think that's where the charade bounces
No, no confusion, I did notice the "I consider", but because in real time/life it's a really fine to no line between "I consider" and "I buy".
It just has to be buying attempts even if not 8-10, and you agreed to my suspicion, so then the idea stands even if not fully.
Now buying 1 or 2 is not that great either as they beside losing fine on their own and adding to the cost of the final winner, they do psychological damage and confidence erosion.
Then when to finally buy the large 10?
If the point of buying the large 10 is clear then why the 1-2 waste buys in between before that? It looks to me to be a real close cousin of over-trading.
I think that with a working system and strategy there is no need for those 1-2s, but only to wait for the real thing, the 10, assuming that "10" is the allocated lot as per strategy and money management.
Then just safeguard this 10 position with a small (sub)system (i.e. stop or 5min), and take the loss (or win) on the real intended lot.
After all, from what I see with my own charts is that opportunities are not really that many, so risk of over-trading (for me) is when going into smaller and smaller time frames and getting carried away.
Thanks, Always a pleasure
tell me if I'm right
even if you are correct or lucky and you do get a 6-8 bagger
but if you lose 8 or 10 times waiting and waiting then the 8-bagger win won't cover the cost of losses
Quote: "Everyday I consider buying at the money puts a month + out...
Because I know they could easily be 6-8 baggers... That'd be huge.
I'm just watching and waiting for volume, and trying to avoid time decay."
weird, SP seems weakest link
immediately SPY can go flat or can go to 352 or 360.
So far she's flat on her back.
There are further implications of any of these scenarios.
Trend is up, but people seem afraid of 360
They were afraid of 340 too
People hope , pray and whine, for lower price, but then not buying it.
Inflation is not going away unfortunately
You said "I don't know what it means." ... but now tell us to remember it's 9/11 day, ok
I remember then that nothing extraordinary ever happened before in connection to this announcement vs chart, and I also remember you saying you don't know, and I remember you saying we should remember.
It makes a lot of sense, it's just me that I don't get it yet..
NY, what's the significance of that expression of yours?
Sometimes SPY goes up sometimes it goes down, absolutely nothing happens out of ordinary after that..
Quote:: "9/11"
I think it's crazy to think 360 today
I can only see immediate, long term, not "month from now"
Cycles CAN help, but I don't see a cycle pointing to epic upcoming
so I see speculation and daydreaming from anyone talking about 20 days later strong up move as there is absolutely nothing in the charts as of now to show such thing, and even momentum slowed down
if anything December will be visiting 330 from my charting
December is also a slow month.
Socio-political is also a shitty upcoming period
If anything it's gonna be volatile
lost some coin on short side waiting for a drop
made some coin back yesterday at EOD
I'm long for now with a small position
dancing by the music
all so nicely done
wow, serial too
I like foxes
best
last 3 weeks range about $15
...so potential this week is for 350 or 375 (then what's 400 a spit away)
I also think 380 is a good top potential for a deep correction to trap 400 salivating bull dreamers, not that won't go there later on
Last Monday SPY gapped up $14
This Monday gapped up $3
hmmm, momentum
... Next Monday?
2 Mondays left of which the last is end of month
near ATH and many are bearish
Buying puts and such..
Maybe because it's uptrend
Maybe because November is one of most bullish month..
Maybe because the Fed is supporting the market...
Yup, it makes sense
:|
+12% up is not up?
and this in just few days no less
New ATH is not up?
Mr Vandal
Quote: "Not exactly the definition of up."
This favors Long side and calls , in spades
That's why puts are losing.
There is no "war on shorts"
Good, short term is what's the real deal, and real challenge.
Sssooooo, where is the ... FORWARD prediction ?
(you can add WHY you think the outcome should be this or that)
Remenmber? ... "I can do it"
Let's go my friend
Thanks, dead end, also (.PNG) pics, no settings.
Here's the problem:
the -ONE would revert the chart (uptrend will become downtrend).
But the chart looks Normal.
I don't see anywhere FXY on the chart, it should be, but it's not - reverted or otherwise...
So I'm genuinely curious what's with that all about.
Maybe you could find a way to find out and share on the board.
I will try too.
The logic dictates me that since this is a pic, and we do not see the settings, it may be that the guy either cut it out before posting, or put opacity 0 (zero) so it will be invisible.
But let's look at the value ... it is 0.0112
Since it should be on the price chart, then even if is visible it should be invisible because the value is near zero while SPY is near 400...
The bigger question is WHAT is the purpose/use of such ?!!!
That FXY would be (inverted) Japanese Yen
Again, NOT seen on the chart.
I opened (inverted) FXY in a different chart and Frankly I don't see any associated help whatsoever.
Any opinions ?
Anybody ?
If you don't mind me asking, since I can't see the settings of the chart due to the new limitations (unless you post a link to the chart instead of saved picture), what is that ——$ONE:FXY thing seen under the SPY symbol (upper left)
thanks
yes but
you left out:
1. BP which is critical.
It is ESSENTIAL to implement strategies.
Insufficient funding can render some of them strategies useless.
2a. other posters are successful.
They teach now and then important stuff.
2b. some quite good people left the board. I feel that loss.
Some others in this category post 10% or less from what they used to.
3. In real life the diatribe collides with real success.
This plants question marks and red flags all over the place.
4. How much more successful you have become in trading after all the presumed learning "from this and that and the other.."
How much more daring..
I'm trying to be tactful
Yes, 100% true. But I was referring to chart condition, pure technical, totally irrespective to fed and such.
You see, SPY goes up overall due to the condition you mentioned. But that condidtion alone won't tell you when SPY has a leg down to correct (or crash correction).
A daily resistance does that, it allows you to get your nuts out of the market vice before they tighten it.
No daily resistance, no danger to nuts, pretty simple.
Sideways is a different danger, it's danger to OPTIONS holders.
On the positive side it makes the options cheaper and you can enter//add.
4-hour chart is very close to daily chart (6 hours) but not close enough, so it fails more compared to daily itself.
Important: daily in BOTH, SPY and Futs
"Crash announcements" .. That's hilarious
Anyway, as I posted yesterday about the day's close condition/importance, as we can all see SPY is not selling as the condition was not met.
Pretty simple sht.
Long and strong as long as that is not happening.
Shorting and puts works under these conditions only as daytrade (IF at all).
There are one-two new posters here that bring a new light to the workbench. It seems to get ridiculously unnoticed.
if she doesn't close bellow yesterday both in cash and futs then it's just a correction and upsurge will resume
Alternatively ,
any subsequent day to close bellow ALL prior days till monday including
charting
Reality check (LONG POST !):
Quote: "Like, just how is it that I (a completely uneducated zero-skills labourer), (essentially) predicted all this back on March 26th (by posting the following (then))"
You CAN be talented in something in total disregard to education status. It happens all the time. They are two separate things, talent vs education.
They can definitely complement each other.
Some people confuse "liking" something (think hobby) with being talented in that something.
I have no idea if this is the case here.
But here are the facts before us:
#1. Long term we have inflation in the world ... AS A GENERAL RULE !
What this does, it makes LONG TERM and super long term charts uptrending CONSTANTLY therefore EASY predictable.
You post habitually LONG TERM and super long term charts. (30 and 60 years)
Then you wonder why was easy for even a person like yourself ?!
Well, it's because it is easy. As I just said and why.
I said before that you place resistance lines in wrong places.
Sometimes you changed them sometimes you reverted to put them wrongly.
JPM chart was yet another chart with a wrong placed resistance line which was NOT broken in spite of the spectacular spike. But your chart shows it was broken ... according to your resistance line ...
I am not advising on this anymore, enough few times in the past. But wanted to put a fact forward.
Another fact is that the shorter the time frame the HARDER the prediction job and charting.
So Superlong 30+ years charts are the easiest charting, followed by long term like 10-15 years.
The Medium term charts like yearly are not so easy anymore.
So ONE year BY ITSELF window. (some pundits believe this is long term)
The shortER term charts are hourly across 1-3 months.
Some swear by 4-hour charts. It's essentially the same thing imo.
So shortER term charts are 1-3 months in any subframe you like (15 min, hourly, 4 hour etc etc)
They are NOT easy to predict. But doable. Many do.
The SHORT term charts are the most difficult as you will be driving looking through a keyhole. They are 2-3-5 days charts in 5min to 1min.
In this timeframe price can and does all kind of UNEXPECTED moves.
It is where the market makes most of us look like fools and often reduce us to losers. (it is why a win here is high-fived, because it's hard and feels like lottery)
SUPER SHORT time frame is few hours window, so LESS than one day.
Obviously it is near impossible to chart, but we all try, ... obviously..
So...
I do NOT know what talent anyone here has.
But I DO know the facts above.
So if you consider yourself talented in charting and chart prediction , that's good, so try closing in towards short and shorter side with predicting expectations..
PARTICULARLY the few days ahead.
The gold is NOT in long term charts. NONE of us including the big guys has the potential or power to wait 30 years for a 10% trade while inflation annihilated all that and life is over by then anyway.
So dwelling more in shorter term charts is not only challenging and presumably pleasant for a person like you or anybody, but BENEFICIAL THE MOST to your account. This assuming the work is any good, even if mediocre.
I think this is valid in many places. Long term you made a million in wages ... but you do NOT have a million ... because it was made in LONG term.
So it is easy to make a million in LONG term, but harder and harder if you want to make it in shorter and shorter time.
You can substitute "million dollars" with "10,000 dollars" and is same principle.
This is my take and also answers to the "HOW" question that was put above, rhetorical or otherwise.
Sincerely
yeah, that's what I would do, one OEX over.
But the RR is way lower that way plus you got to fork over more dough, sometimes double.
Another way would be via a hedge, where the position can not pose a margin problem because the hedge (so no Auto-liquidation need) , where the shorter term option is the one played for daytrade. But this only works better if traded with direction of trend.
I don't know, I live and learn.