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IMO that is just one catalyst. The other major catalyst that WILL spark a huge run is any hint from the government on the direction Fannie and Freddie will receive that favors shareholders. The democrats sponsored the bailouts. In the case of F and F they are the poster child for the success of the bailouts. The dems want to preserve the availability for people to receive affordable mortgages that the FHFA via f and f provide. The republicans favor privatization. The political momentum is clearly in favor of the dems right now. And any republicans thinking of re-election has to consider the potentially damaging effects that disrupting the housing recovery would have on their own political careers.
With Obama's proposed announcement of Watts to replace Demarco this is a good indicator that the future of F and F as far as tax payers, homeowners, and especially shareholders are concerned will be a more favorable environment than what has been proposed by Bush appointee Demarco.
The potus is relying on pragmatic bi-partisan congressmen to approve this appointment of Watts in short order as the consequence of not doing so could result in a loss of confidence in a key area of the housing recovery. If that were to happen it puts the tax payers investment in f an f back in jeopardy of being in the red instead of the current black. Who wants to be responsible for that?
The big earnings will beget media attention, lots of it. The media attention will bring more investors and spectators. The result of this will put increased pressure on lawmakers to choose a direction.
The spring here is loaded. It's been compressed and coiling for 5-6 weeks at this current level. The earnings are not baked into the PPS. The only reason this has not exploded up is because there are still those that are short here based on the perception of Fannie and Freddie from wearing lenses from 2008. These folks fail to see the momentum has moved far away from that perception and that via the federal courts recent rulings on fraudulent mortgages sold to F and F and the strength of the housing recovery overall, F and F have shed their blight and are looking rather sexy. So sexy that apparently even big time hedge funds are looking to court them. So how bad an investment are they really when everyone from the government, to the shareholders, to the private equity groups want to own a piece of them?
If you are short here you should hedge by buying aspirin, lots and lots of aspirin.
Perhaps this news is announced today? The article referenced Wednesday as the day Obama is to make the announcement.
Lol. True. So true.
That's a bs line. If the price of anything in a true capitalist environment is predicated on supply vs. demand how exactly does pumping counterfeit shares into the market establish a real and accurate price? How many times has anyone seen steady buy side volume into the hundreds of millions of shares take a whole day to up the PPS of a stock by less than 1% then a stream of 100 share trades at the end of day can walk the PPS down to close at a loss greater than the PPS derived fom steady buying all day? Ridiculous!
Here again is another post that warrants a "like" button.
I have expressed the same sentiment verbatim. It is un-American. Not necessarily as it pertains to regular, legal shorting. This is much more akin to two sides of a bet on anything, football, a coin toss, etc. But when a market maker is given the ability to "naked" short, then is expected to honor the rules with respect to "providing liquidity" only, well we see how that works out. We get rampant abuse that goes un recognized and ignored by those tasked with "policing" this industry.
It's also interesting that unlike other crime rampant abuse of naked shorting is seemingly encouraged by lawmakers and in their minds does not warrant increased attention on the perpetrators. This would be akin to a neighborhood that experiences robberies multiple times per day every day of the week and yet the local police never think to set up a sting operation IN the neighborhood.
A. That news is old
B. The reason was due to lack of inventory not lack of interest.
C. The new report mentioned on Bloomberg today says that April sales were back up and so were home prices.
My sarcasm goes unrecognized I guess.
My point, and I'm not looking to debate it, is that there is no rule book that clearly defines anything when it comes to who can do what in the mkt. if there is it is kept far away from public view so the mystery and befuddlement of so many investors can be volleyed back and forth on chat boards.
Every BD has mystery terms that differ from one another and can be made up or altered at their will without notice.
My friend has had 6 separate accounts at Etrade, his, his wife's kids, etc. he committed no crimes. He did invest in too many penny stocks according to Etrade though. They did not feel that way when he was pouring money into those accounts in order to purchase these stocks. Instead they passed this judgement once he sold and traded many of them and built up his account value big time. Suddenly now that he is in the money they have a problem with it. Sounds like they have a clearing problem with it. Go figure that.
Same thing happened to me last year with Scottrade. Both sent a letter stating that they no longer wished to do business.
Really? Why is that?
Scottrade letter stated no longer will allow me to buy, only sell my existing positions until I can be cashed out.
Etrade went a step further and said that he had 30 days to sell his positions or they would liquidate them. ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
What level of illegal Shiite is that? Where does it say in either companies terms that they can do this? Who would you complain to? And just what would that dept actually do about it? If you said no one and not a damn thing then ding ding ding ding!!
In reality that statement is true, "you", can't short penny stocks, "you" can't make AH trades, but some can and do. Not retail but it happens just like "you" can't sell imaginary shares at the end of the day to manipulate the price lower but someone can. ;)
I know and you can't short penny stocks either right? T trades right? Ya right.
My etrade pro mobile keeps showing AH trades coming in and is showing down .0004 right now. I see this every day post close on FNMA.
It's just a joke how badly some "need" this to close under .83
What desperation these miserable souls will go to.
Yes sir. They CAN'T IGNORE THE PROFITS!!
The financial media and the media at large are all over this story. They are going to push the profits in the face of law makers. They are going to push the hedge fund buy ins in the face of lawmakers.
The c-ship stall tactic jig is up.
FNMA getting all gassed up for a big run.
Big talk on Bloomberg Money Moves right now!!
The media is getting the word out.
This is going to go off the Richter scale. They CAN'T IGNORE TGE PROFIT!!
No but the interest of a hedge fund wanting to take ownership of the governments position would mean a purchase whereby there would be a buy in by the suitors willing to privatize the GSE. All classes of shares would have to be honored and either a liquidation value would be appraised or shareholders would have transferred interest into the new entity.
How is that not good? What did you think would happen to all of the assets/mortgages that are held here? They don't just go away they need to be sold and the value keeps going up.
This is definitely a good thing.
And the .01% that are not get no support as every self serving bill is piggy backed on other more salable bills and moved through the house via negotiation. The system is set up for wheeling and dealing. No good bill gets passed without carrying the weight of some greedy porkers pork.
Lovely isn't it?
Every side has a back pocket judge or politician. The governments back pocket judges seem to trump the other guys more often than not. Look at the midnight NDAA reversal by Obama. His judge trumped the one the people and the constitution were represented by.
It's a disturbing trend as the constituency continues to be dumbed down and increasingly apathetic.
Hard for some to see the wisdom of the "wild stallions" but the world could really benefit from being excellent to one another.
FNMA future is looking rather excellent as well! \m/
It's criminal manipulation. Where is there any money to be made on low volume days when the trading margins are less than 1%? Yet we have seen this same "battle" waged everyday for weeks over fluctuations of as little as 5/100th of a penny. Are you kidding me? That's someone making very obvious moves to keep this under .83. We closed the day again at .83 and an after hours trade brought it down to f with the chart/signal etc. Some here will undoubtedly say it's a t trade but in the context of things that is horse $/!t and most everyone knows it. It's manipulation to buy time and allow them to scoop up the lose shares from those that get impatient.
There is no other god reason IMO. The day trading, swing trading liquidity and volatility has been absent here for a while now so the only play that could account for this trading we see is a short play that is getting increasingly more desperate. Must be a lot of shares out on loan here. Someone's gotta find them shares.
The lid is going to get blown off of this thing in a Big way come the Q1.
I wouldn't want to be short when every news agency is talking about a $60b plus quarter for FNMA. When this becomes national news soon the questions are going to get a lot more pointed coming from the public and the politricksters won't be able to stall the release from c-ship much longer.
These are golden times we are living in. ;)
Is it just me or does FMCC trading seem less effected by all the nonsense that FNMA sees?
It's moving up commensurate with FNMA and with seemingly less volatility and volume.
At the moment it is higher.
Really captain obvious? Because without your gloom and doom no one is able to glean the realistic from the absurd here?
Right. A few years ago pot was illegal in 50 states. According to this guys logic that precedent should never be challenged. Now there are 18 states with medical mmj, 2 that are fully legal, and at least 5 more that have it on their next ballot as a referendum.
That's 25 states or 50% of the nation.
Maybe he does not get that in America we have the right, the ability, and the responsibility to challenge government stupidity.
It's all speculation in any stock pal. Why do you think there are 5 major financial tv broadcasting companies and a trillion dollar casino called Wall St?
Why does HBO, ESPN, ABC, NBC, FOX etc hire football commentators to pontificate on upcoming games?
Why does Vegas make odds on these very notions of pontification
If waiting till after the game is played to place your bet is your game....well then you won't win much, but you won't lose any either. Sounds like....boredom.
It's not a foot race pal. It's more like a diurnal tidal flow, where it may take 12 hours to come in but the level rises over 20'
Then you are not listening. There is a very large group that is saying exactly that in some form. At the worst you will see an agreement that gives something to both sides. At best this is a 5th amendment issue and the fed in their infinite ignorance jumped the gun on pointing the blame at FNMA and FMCC.
The courts are proving this every day as well as the swelling of the FNMA and FMCC coffers.
Your posts are as relevant as those screaming $100/ share.
You hold no more of a crystal ball than anyone else. We all know what HAS been the case. New evidence supports strong arguments towards a major reversal in the views of many lawmakers faced with major conflicts of interest, not to mention constitutionality issues.
Try being a bit more pragmatic. It easier to have a conversation with someone when they are in the middle. No one likes an alarmist or an extremist.
Plus,,,IMO you are going to find that you are very wrong in your interpretation of data.
It's the silver lining on an otherwise dark cloud. Here in Fl I have seen folks go from rags to riches after big storms. The clean up effort, the repairs, the re birth employs a lot of workers. Those workers are consumers of both the goods and services needed for the repairs as well as consumers of all things they use in their own households. That has an immediate effect on employers at retailers, service companies, manufacturing etc. The money trades hands that's all. The talking heads always talk about the "cost" of the damage of these storms in a negative light where in reality these storms are like a giant stimulus package for the areas hit.
On a side note, I don't know how much you know about the HARP, (giant radio waves aimed at the ionosphere), program but the science behind it gives the user the ability to "steer" weather like hurricanes by controlling or really by distorting the shape of the ionosphere. It has been hypothesized, (with shocking proof), that our gov is guilty of steering storms like Katrina and Sandy towards economically "challenged" areas in order to stimulate the local economies by forcing infrastructure improvements.
Is that good or bad.....or both? Idk but from a strictly economic position, seems like its working.
Need a maxi?
That's true. It just means there is opportunity for rebirth.
Sadly, even if you are in St Claire Shores or anywhere headed north its hard not to recognize the stark dichotomy that exists between the haves and the have nots. It's an interesting study in sociology to look at Windsor, Canada with its manicured lawns and Disney like charm on one side of the river then look back at a place that sits two levels below Hell in Dante's Inferno on the other side.
If places like Detroit could drop the bs with all the unions it could be a great comeback story that would benefit way more than just the housing markets and fnma.
Yes I hear you. The northeast in general had limited inventory to begin with, factor in hurricane Sandy and winter storm damaged areas and you have one of the tightest markets if not THE tightest real estate markets in the nation.
Boots are on the ground and hammers are swinging folks. That's the sound of progress, long over due in my opinion in a part of the country that has had an aged and dilapidated infrastructure in need of major widespread re construction.
As bad as Sandy was in some ways it is a boon for the northeast housing markets. You have homes and buildings over 100 years old up there. Down in this market the oldest homes were built in the 50's and 60's for the most part and those are getting knocked down or renovated all the time.
Housing market has a huge, huge trickle down economics factor. Don't hate me for saying it but storms like that have helped the recovery and another 1 or 2 wouldn't hurt. People just gotta get outta Dodge when they happen. Staying put in a 100 year old structure during a storm isn't going to save anything.
The shortage of houses on the market was cited as the reason for the lower than anticipated sales for March.
I just put my home on the market in S Fl. I've had realtors busting down my door to get the listing. Every one of them says that inventory is very limited. Sellers are in control again.
This has fostered new housing starts all over. WCI, Toll Brothers, GL Homes and more have been busy with new homes and new communities all over the state.
The 50k plus vacant condos in Dade county are gone and sold out. They are building new condos all over and many in Aventura to S Beach are of the multi million dollar unit variety.
As a side bar (but also to add to the point ) Porsche is building a luxury condo that you drive your car into your private elevator that takes you up to your unit. Then you drive into your unit and a rotating turntable turns your car around so when you leave you can drive back out. There is no more recession in this area and over the top projects like that are not uncommon.
FNMA is back. Housing recovery is back in every major market.
Gmc is a bad example. They don't have nearly the assets, revs, or earnings.
Consider this. Even if Warren Buffet and others do enter the market. Lets say they take 1/2 of the market share. 1st that's going to take a long time to achieve. 2nd the price of FNMA is under $1. Even if their assets were reduced by half, revs and profits too, you don't think that at well under $1/Sh that FNMA in any realistic future form would still net shareholders in from here handsome returns? If you say yes then you are an extremist and an alarmist and IMO have no real grip on what is LIKELY to happen.
The likely scenario from an economic and political perspective is in the worst case scenario going to involve a cooperative agreement that serves both sides and preserves shareholders a stake in equity.
Bet me!
What the government s doing is wrong on many levels and illegal and unconstitutional. Does there exist a chance that this wont go favorably for shareholders? Sure, but those odds get more and more slim every day.
The gov acted out of fear and from a place of confusion when they made the deal with FNMA and FMCC. At the same time these two had a lot of unexplained failures on their books.
So while the blood lust of many idiots in congress was calling for the privatization of the GSEs they still did not have all the facts on what the catalysts were that caused this.
Now we know that many many banks were guilty of defrauding
FNMA and FMCC by selling them falsely rated mortgages. Some of these banks have been ordered to buy back these bad mortgages and more will be facing the music in the near future.
We also see a return to normal and reasonable loan requirements for homeowners. We are seeing the profits come back and we are seeing the price stabilization and upward momentum in the housing market.
So how can there be any justification to "unwind" a GSE that appears to not been at fault in the first place? How can the gov take away their profits, the shareholder dividends, and not remove them from c-ship when they essentially did nothing wrong? That is the question and it is getting harder and harder for anyone in Washington to make a case to the contrary when faced with all of the facts here. It's also difficult to propose any long term alternative for privatization when there are no players in the private sector looking to take on the substantial risk associated with these MBSs. There are trillions of dollars at stake and even if this were ever to come to fruition it certainly won't be as a result of a Keystone Cop Congress to set up. The only way that FNMA and FMCC would reduce their liability is via an organic supposition of private sector firms slowly and gradually entering this sector and in the process developing new strategies with witch to compete and be profitable at a reasonable level of risk. That my friends is not going to be a quick fix.
So then what? The shareholders and the taxpayers and homeowners should all wait around for an undetermined period of years while the government milks this cash cow like a whore in a one whore town with the entire pacific fleet in town?
That's not going to fly with anyone, not shareholders, not tax payers, not homeowners, not anyone. The lawsuits are already getting primed up just waiting for that, and don't think the ass clowns in Washington don't know that.
The longer it takes the better it looks like they are not going to change a thing. And in addition there is less and less support to unwind them given everything I have stated above now coming to light. These politicians are career politicians pal. They care about getting re-elected more than anything else in life. That's going to take a lot of reversals on their previous sentiments if they want to get re-elected because at this point any disruption in the current economic recovery and the strengthening housing markets caused by dumb assed politicians will be met with great disapproval by voters. The same voters who are shareholders, tax payers, and homeowners
There is no sure bets other than death and taxes, but there are many that see the writing on the wall here, and its written in giant green Sharpie ink.....
It really only matters to day flippers, the daily fluctuations that is. In reality all longs should be very grateful for the protracted time frame in which to accumulate at this point.
The longer you are on patience here the more green you will appreciate.
The OTC has a tendency to bring out the very worst in traders due to all the unbridled crime and the rhetoric from the mouthpieces hired by the criminals.
Fnma is like a smart and wealthy guy that had to sell the home in the gated community and go live in the slums for a few years. Now he is back on track, the lease is almost up and the slumlord is about to get his final rent check. Then soon fnma starts shopping for new diggs on the other side of the tracks.
This will be another factor in the current violation of the 5th amendment that the government is guilty of. This only stands to substantiate FNMA shareholder's position to release them from c-ship.
How can F and F be unwound for being in the position they ended up in 2008 when the courts are saying that they were sold bad paper to begin with? How then can the FHFA or the treasury disgorge FNMA of these awards if they were not at fault and deserve not only the awarded damages but also to be relinquished from illegal government occupation that by the same rulings they are being absolved of any wrongdoing?
American sheeple need to wake up here. This is just filthy bs.
Not trying to be the boss but my feet are planted firmly on the ground.
The real estate markets in America have changed. Whether it is for the better will be determined by history.
Right now housing is coming back with some vigor. That is good for FNMA and for multi family properties that benefits Freddie too.
I don't expect that we will be seeing the retail boom again any time soon if ever again as the consumer increasingly is purchasing from online retailers. That is definitely effecting any real recovery or growth in that sector. I also feel that commercial office space has a ways to go and may too be forever effected. But where these sectors are lagging others are improving at an inverse rate.
For all the existing retail space that remains stagnant there are industrial properties being built and filled with tenants. The switch from brick and mortar retail to online still requires the warehousing and shipping of merchandise to consumers. This requires an infrastructure to do this so we are seeing an increase in industrial properties. This will continue to grow especially on the east and south east coasts due to the opening of the new Panama Canal to larger transport ships that previously had to stop in Long Beach, Ca and sent their wares to the east via train and truck. Now these ships will be off loading from Florida to New York and new distribution channels will be needed to expedite the transfer of merchandise. This will also create a trickle down economic effect to these states and result in a rising level of affluence and increased home sales in these regions.
Matter can not be created nor destroyed it can only change its form. Similarly the mortgage environment will not be destroyed it may take on a new look but the dollars will flow where they are needed and for the foreseeable future F and F will have a hand in securitizing them.
If folks are in fact paying attention then they could not forget that the reason for March sales being down over previous was due to a lack of inventory and not because of a lack of buyers. That is a major distinguishing point. This does not indicate weakness. In fact the report goes on to say that home sale prices remain on the increase.
If anything, this report is a green light to home builders that they can proceed with new construction starts as the market is desperate for increased inventory.
This report while seemingly lack luster on its face is actually a strong indicator that the market for home sales is strengthening.
Factor in the expectation of 2013 being the last year of low interest rates before anticipated hikes will occur and I suspect we will see robust growth in new construction and a continued strengthening of existing home sales.
That news is very positive. Please don't spin it any other way.
You clearly miss the point. There will
Be billions added to their coffers regardless of how the misinterpretation of facts is presented.
Ever play telephone there friend?
It won't matter who mis- understood, misquoted, or mis- represented this information. All that WILL matter is that there will be a swelling of cash for these firms as these court cases are concluded. That's a win for Fannie and Freddie and suffice to say that is the message that many here are trying to convey.
If there were a kangaroo court on Ihub for misinterpreting or misrepresenting facts then a good many here would be in Ihub jail for life.
Can you not read properly of are you trying to mislead people?
I guess we have our answer.
Try hooked on phonics.
Gary and his bull are on the way out or perhaps more appropriately, the bull sheiter and his pet CEO Gary are out after Gary's contract expires.
We don't need to speculate on why EK and Bull are out but rumor has it that Gary is not cutting the McMustard at his McDayjob and he will be given a McTimeout if he doesn't quit not doing anything at his moonlighting gig.
Further is that any additional funds that are resultant of these trials is a bonus for both Fannie and Freddie, whether they be $11.5 billion or $111 billion. At the end of the day we are talking about additional income added to their bottom line that starts in the billions and only goes up from there.
Just who exactly is misleading whom?
This is Fannie Mae the trillion dollar company not some stinky pink you folks are constantly pandering
Can you not read properly? I said the FHFA is pursuing this on behalf of Fannie and Freddie. I never said it was all going straight to FNMA and neither did anyone else here.
So perhaps you should check yourself first.