Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Today, we are trading as function of the XBI, the Russell2000 etc which gives us really no independent upside momentum. The averages are coming off oversold conditions.
I suspect that the great news in Ariad just serves to insure that the downside is limited in both scope and duration.
I suspect that you have given Merrill a great deal more credit than they deserve. They are not as deviously smart as you make them out to be. They have simply made a mistake with Ariad; and, they will be late to the party when they change the rating to a buy.
Merrill Lynch is good example of a standard investing error. Having all the facts does not mean that you can draw the correct conclusion.
The list of errors made by Merrill over the years is so long that it competes with the number of empty plastic bottles discarded around the world each year.
Well put.
Looks like someone bought catastrophic downside risk insurance to allow them to hold their 600,000 position with some level of comfort.
Always reasonable for prudent institutions of the price is right. With today's news, the price was apparently right.
My bet is that they partner the EU because it will shore up their balance sheet for a long time until their income stream comes on line and makes them independent. Marty is valuable at all levels. He may be rather helpful in determining which pharama will be the best to roll pona out and what the optimal EU terms might be. Harv is more clever than greedy and shoring up the balance sheet in troubling times has a lot to say for itself. I think Harv is finished with scrambling for cash by hocking the jewels.
Geithner is trying to create the conditions for aggregate demand to grow - that's all. Do less would just reduce the possibilties.
Someone just bought 3000 nov 14 calls.
At this point my bet is that you have a great position and a really nice boat as well.
I agree with you in concept. I think that Ariad could price at an "Illverson" level of outstanding in a basically drifting market with all the positives showing up over the next three months. There are very few stocks out there right now with immanent good news with the exception of a couple of under priced gold miners.
The volume does not seem strong enough to overcome the downward pressure from the indexes that Ariad floats in. And yet, Ariad continues to levitate while the indexes are falling. Can it possibly continue??
Hard to really see what is happening here. Someone does seem to think that the stock is a real bargain in the 9.78 - 9.80 range in the face of a deteriorating market that could easily dive 5+% next week.
Nice - thanks.
I will grant you that my speculations are probably more hopeful than true; but, the relationship is rather fortuitous at the same time and offers an opportunity for speculation that would not have existed with a hire from an unrelated company.
The history of Merck's involvement with Ariad seems like a sort of slow moving due diligence which Duvall has certainly been aware of. For the short term, it seems to bode well for the roll out of ponatinib in Europe and for the longer term it seems like a significant vote of confidence in the future of Ariad.
Just as the complexities of the interactions of Ridaforolimus with other drugs doesn't lend itself to simplistic analysis, neither do the complexities of the Eurozone, ECB, EFSF, memeber states, political parties and banking problems in combination with the current debt issues lend themselves to simple resolutions. The resolution of EU problems just like the application of Ridaforolimus across multiple uses will take time and create uncertainty that invites answers that mostly don't apply. The EU is not the US. We're just relatives who mostly get along.
Glad to be entertaining you with my musings. We will see what it looks like in 9 months. I will try and find your post again at that time.
With this appointment, Merck will certainly have somewhat of a toehold in the Ariad buyout door if they want to pursue it. I suspect that they are watching the evolution of Ariad's drug developments almost as closely as we are.
The question for me is what is the probability that the FDA grant compassionate use for T315i for ponatinib after P2??
Everything that you and BTH are saying might be true but meaningful news announcements might also easily trump the general market conditions in which Ariad floats around.
From my point of view talking about 4's is just silly. The inflection point of 7.50 based on institutional holdings is probably like a fair statement. I suggest that we see 20 before we see 4. The pipeline is just to full of good stuff with more behind it in the lab. Clackson hasn't been sitting on his hands either before or after after 113. He's a brilliant, busy guy. Just keep the faith and keep doing your homework.
That was as of 6/30/2011 of course. It certainly indicates institutional interest has been increasing. However, and a big however at that, it's not possible to guess where actual institutional ownership stands today after the market blood bath of recent weeks. There was a great deal of forced institutional disgorgement recently that leaves numbers like this up in the air until the next calmer quarter is in.
In a world of losses, institutions like to cash in winners while they still have a few chips left.
Agreed. The list of aholes is now so long I suggest we go on to bholes.
I'm kind of looking at 11.30 as short term top. But then what do I know too.
Thanks for the thoughts. I know a few big day traders who are in this stock and tend to add to the exaggeration of the moves. Looks like they caught the wave this morning.
I don't know where to begin so I won't even start. Besides, this is so OT and Ariad deserves more attention than we are giving it.
I am expecting months of positive developments leading up to ASH despite what the market is doing. Ariad is certainly not independent of the market but once the data starts coming in, I suspect Ariad will have some momentum of its own.
China is not just another economy. Just so we have the same fact base, I would add that Chinese reported numbers and actual numbers for any government statistic do not resemble reported number for US or western economies. The complexity and impenetrability of their economic structure is much greater than your statement implies. I am not implying but stating that comparative statements about China and the US or Europe using the same metrics are meaningless.
Well, he certainly isn't saying that he is concerned that the Chinese are on the verge of eating his lunch. They have started large scale construction of facilities to build CATlike equipment.
The last 15 minutes of trading when Ariad sold off .25 with 500,000 moving in 15 minutes was a market wide sell off that affecedt almost all stocks that are indexed or ETF'd.
At the risk of seeming pedantic and under estimating your wealth of knowledge, I urge you to read some American history from the period 1800 t0 1810. You'd be stunned at how familiar the issues will seem and how adamant and fierce the debates were. The difference is that they used to kill each other in those days.
Democracy is the most expensive form of government and it's always a food fight. It just hurts when your stocks are stuck in the crack of some congressman's ass who doesn't and will never give a damn because he is close to being a moron because of ideological blindness.
Crises like these sharpen the focus and are necessary for renewal just like forest fires. Being stuck in the forest fire while its happening can we the end of the world for some people.
We will get through - I think the EU has much bigger fish to fry then our problems. We are just suffering from about of ignorance and selfishness.
Sorry to disagree with your generalization. Just because we are going thru a rough spot doesn't put us even close to the garbage.
America is still the greatest place to live and I am proud to be a citizen here. We have the strongest, most flexible and most powerful financial structure. We have the most mobile and most flexible work force. We have the finest educational institutions in the world. We are still the most creative country in the world. We will survive and overcome these difficulties.
The fact that there are boo birds and pessimists on every corner doesn't mean they know what the future will be. We have lived through and overcome much worse obstacle than thesee
Our best days are still ahead of us (to steal a phrase).
The EU will not go to hell over night. The EU, however, is a slow moving train crash with no chance of escape. The ECB will have to to their version of QE with massive debt buying in order to preserve bank viability and allow for debt rollovers. The euro looks like it is holding its own but that is an illusion. It should be approaching parity with the dollar in the nest six months. If the euro survives, which means that the euro countries reach agreement on how to go forward and on how to absorb the loss from the banks and the debt ridden member countries, then the euro will eventually strengthen against the dollar because we will continue to print money while they will have stopped. I'm short euros now but will be a buyer some time next year if the are still around.
My take away implications for Ariad based on the given the longer term hold position that the Fed has stated is as follows:
- stocks are in favor over the next couple of years
- stocks with great growth potential, like Ariad, are more in favor
- bonds and other bond-like holdings are out because of inflationary erosion without compensating interest levels
- Ariad is a buy at these levels
- imho
With this volume and this beta, you are more likely wrong than right.
Times and trading patterns have changed.
Just as a clarification, the Fed does have more arrows.
Speaking of 'monkey rains' there seems to be a great deal of those around these days. Sadly most of them are in D.C. for the time being.
Meaningless.
It's starting to look a lot like Christmas.
Thanks BTH for continuing to find the nuggets for us.
Despite the existence of items like this on the net, most of them routinely elude me. If you leave, I will suffer from a form of internet blindness for which I suspect I can't find the cure.
Will a close over 12.60 be more persuasive?
Today's volume and action looks like a great entry point - so I am all in today for as many shares as I intend to buy.