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No worries, give me a sec to put a chart together in Stockcharts.
Mitch BAA is in a super bullish set-up at the moment. Today's low was deep enough to be considered a wave 2 retrace and that's means we could start a 3rd wave higher at anytime now. I'd really like to see .22 tested before it moves higher as that would give it more range on the high end but no guarantee that happens. Bottom line IMO is buy the dips and ride it higher until we have a clear sign that gold has reached a top.
BAA is very close to breaking out IMO.
For those of you that are new to EST and just started following this oil trade I like to use the 1 hour chart for most of my analysis but if your time frame is more than a few days I suggest following the daily chart to make your calls.
The USO chart is really what tipped me off so I'll be using that one as well to help lay out what I think may be next.
My bad but like I was saying the early part of these moves is always the most difficult to call. We'll get it right just need to get this first leg printed and it'll be much easier to map the rest of it. I do have some initial targets I'll be posting here in a few minutes.
I've been staring at the chart and the technicals simple don't support the kinda bounce I'm looking for. Now that doesn't mean it won't happen as the early part of any move is always the hardest to predict but in this case id today's low is broken it'll have have me looking even lower before the wave 2 bounce. I know this is somewhat different than what I said yesterday but I'd rather get it out there and discuss it rather than waiting to see what happens.
$58.49 for /CL
EST please listen up here for a sec. I've been looking at this oil chart for the last hour and I'm gonna change my call up a bit. A break of today's low will have me back in DWTI. Again if /CL doesn't break todays high before today's low I will be back in DWTI. I'll post a complete breakdown of this play but wanted to get this out there as soon as possible.
I need to catch up on reading today's post so I apologize if I haven't replied yet.
No I'm very serious about oil being back in the 30's. I joke a lot but never about money. I'm completely out of DWTI at the moment but the next bounce should be the proper entry for the long term hold of this portion of the play. The current bounce was easily forecast and we've been on it since the beginning but just like this bounce was easy to identify so is what should come next. We have a solid target on the charts and IMO it's just a matter of time before it's broken and a bottom is put in. Of course nothing is guaranteed but so far this has been relatively easy to play. Even when we've been wrong it hasn't been that bad as long as traders used stops and didn't try to force the play.
$2.90-$2.95 IMO
If any of you guys are still long DWTI you should consider booking profits if it starts to reverse. This is still in play and I expect much higher prices but I don't like to hold for the 2nd wave retrace. It's just my MO and the best advice I can give if anyone is interested.
Will be back in the office in the next 30 minutes.
IMRS off the bottom looks good IMO and I'm giving it a go. .617 remains key for higher levels.
Was filled with my 2nd buy in GDX at 19.50
XIV continuing to work well.
Full position in UGAZ at $2.25, no scaling on this one.
Oil should be ready for a bounce.
Huge win with GEVO today, 80% of my holdings were sold but I'm going to wait for the wave 5 high to sell the rest and short it for the wave 2 pullback.
Guys that was a great day to come back, thanks for the input. I'll be back later this evening to catch up on my chart work.
No, stopped out with $5 per share from this morning but I'm going to buy back on the first CL bounce which shouldn't be too far off. It's very possible oil already has a top in place and what we saw today was the 1st wave lower. It's also possible today was just the 4th wave lower and we still have one more high before we start the next leg lower in earnest. No matter what happens I believe that a local high for oil is at hand and we're going to see a new low in the $30's. I'll post a more detailed cart this evening for anyone interested in playing DWTI with us. Again, nice trade, let's hope we can continue to beat this POS into submission.
I caught it .16 off the bottom and holding for now, big block buying EOD may be a tip off. No matter what happens short term I'm standing by my call for a major correction just ahead.
This is what I meant about the markets making up ground quickly.
1st buy $19.73
I just can't pull the trigger on UGAZ with no volume after the decline. It's where it should be and is holding but the lack of buying is a very bad sign for longs. I'm actually considering DGAZ instead, Sorry SB I know you sold but just saying. I'm sure you understand what I'm saying about the volume. Maybe the best play is no play until we can get a better read on the play. I'd have no trouble shorting closer to 2.90-2.95 but here it could run higher and eat into profits from the next pullback. The whole volume thing just makes me want to watch for a bit.
Nice, we're gonna stay on this one. The next entry will be a much longer term hold, that is unless it wants to drop $30 overnight.
I'm not done my a long shot, I'll be buying the wave 2 bounce and holding for as long as it takes. I was up $5 a share and didn't want to take a chance on it gapping in the morning and giving it back. Right now I think the high is in and we have a long way to go before we see a bottom, if you want to hold during the first bounce I don't see anything wrong with that, I'm just trying to book as much of this as I can.
LOL, have you been reading my post, LOL.
That was 9% since this morning, I wanted to hold but haven't been working much lately so cashed out. I really don't think it's done but hoping to get back in lower.
Yes I'm fighting the urge to buy it right now but haven't seen any volume since the pullback ended.
Man that was the best laugh I had all day, lol
2072 is resistance on ES
Stopped out of DWTI with $5 per share.
Yeah but I don't think it'll last, that's why I'm saying it has to make up some ground quickly. If this works out I can make a couple of bucks off of XIV and be in UVXY overnight.