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Volume today is an indication that some fund(s) were selling. In a de-risking environment, it's every man for himself. These managers have an obligation to make money. Most have a significant gain in Ariad. If the whole market is going to sell-off, then Ariad (and it's huge % gain) is going to down for the ride. The CC was fine. The miss is due to the warrants issue which is a direct result of the sharp increase in pps. Future prospects have never looked brighter, but the stock has skyrocketed in the last 2 months and has been long overdue for a correction.
The only bright spot I saw today (if you could call it that) was that we seemed to bounce off the 50 day. Ariad usually does. At the end of the day when the S/P took a heavy leg down, the volume dried up and pps seemed to stabilized.
I think that the overall is going to start looking cheap fairly soon and I think Ariad will respond well. If I had to guess, Friday's job's # has a better chance of being a non-event at this point than a rason for another sell-off. I still think we will see $15 by the end of the year. Regardless, BTH made a great call and I should have dumped 30% in the $13 range, but I believed the BS and got too greedy. The effin hysteria around here should have been my strongest indication that we were at the short term top.
I know what I own too. What I own is down over 20% in the last week.
Wish I had some cabbage, cause I would be a buyer here with Jan.
So you are thinking that the selloff may be attributed to possible bad news thats coming? Not due to the fact that it has nearly doubled in a few months and there has been a risk off selloff going on to the tune of nearly 40 s/p points? The other guy thinks that a company that, a few days ago, was thought of as one of the most promising biotechs out there is now being forced to do (a PIPE no less) around $10.
Some brilliant ideas being traded around here these days.
With all of the useless speculation going on, this board has become slighlty better than the YMB. You guys keep worrying about the daily fluctuations, I will see you in a year or two. Some of these posts are starting to sound really stupid.
So in short (pun intended) I think he thought it a good short for many reasons. I don't know his initial price but the time of the first article was in the ~4.50 - ~5 range so if one shorted then they would have done pretty well.
Any word on the Android App?
I apologize. I didn't mean to offend you or question your sanity. Your investment perspective certainly has to be different then mine due to our age difference.
Nice trade with Ariad. Let's see what these Washington knuckheads come up with for this debacle.
Good luck to all of us.
Ex
Everyone's favorite Neop short Marty posted an opinion on SA that Lymphoseek could not be approved because the trial was run against blue dye and not the (unapproved) SOC of blue dye and SC. He even filed a silly citizen's petition based on it. Now this Pharmalucence gets approval for SC after they put it up against blue dye as well.
Regardless of one's opinion of the commercial viability and/or market share of Lymphoseek, or the valuation of Neop's pps, does this SC approval basically negate Marty's thesis?
TIA
This is certainly a dangerous game of political chicken.
Btw, Did you get my Neop argument? I could use some of your DD on this one. Lots of smoke in the air right now.
In light of a potential meltdown Monday it should have been more.
Great trade bud. I have been thinking of lightening up the load as well. I intend to peel some off very soon and hold a healthy position for a few more years. I'm sure I will sit on the beach this weekend and think about it. Btw, Cris could break loose here (nice close over $4 on 3x the avg volume). Could get real interesting on that one as well.
Thanks for the great work, enjoy!
Regards, Joe
Hhhhmmmm, I'm thinking that buying Aria now with it's almost 2 mil market cap is not Dew's cup of tea. A while back on the BV board, I did everything except tackle him and press the button for him when it was @ $6. I seriously doubt he is crunching the numbers and wringing his hands contemplating a big buy here.
Hey, where is my favorite antagonist BTH today? This board sucks without him busting someone's ba!!$.
Hillary Kramer, Hillary Clinton, Hillary Swank who cares? Just keep up the pump job
Is it that she said Aria could go to $18 - $20 LOL
Man this chick is selling her book everywhere. Lots of people pumping these days. Not just here mind you. ;)
You have been calling this a pig since $2, who you kidding?
I think 2da added that part himself.
There's something in that article that sticks out and is a concern for me as an Ariad investor. this should take BTH all of 5 seconds to figure out.
We usually see around 10%-15% pullbacks. My guess is somewhere between $10-$10.50 will do the trick.
I think I might have a few chapters to contribute to that book from my "break in period" a few years back.
I have yet to see the "blow off top", so I have not sold any shares. I have to admit, this heavy volume buying is impressive, but it makes me slightly nervous for some reason.
As a long term investor in Aria, I really don't have any issue with an offering here. I think the market would digest it fairly well. From my perspective, the more of Ponatnib and 113 Aria keeps, the better for it's shareholders down the road.
Peter
I am in from the 2's as well. To what do you attribute the almost frenzied (but orderly) buying? Since investor day the volume has been very heavy. It is far and away my biggest holding, and I too am tempted at times to sell some.
Problem I have is that I can't find another bio that I believe has as much potential, say 1-2 years out. From a short term trading perspective, a pullback is in order and would be healthy, IMO.
I guess this is the kind of problem investors dream of, so we should be grateful.
Dew has been murdering those poor sob's on the FCSC board. "He's a short, he's this, he's that". HE'S RIGHT!!!!
Unfortunately for those people invested in LaViv, the player's have left the room and moved on to the next P&D scam.
Yahoo, but chart below says 77.67. Ameritrade says 73.61 as you said. I think we will pull back soon. Somewhere around $10ish would make sense. Any pull back would be met with buying, IMO. Let's see what happens.
The RSI is healthily over 80 now. Getting bearish is prob the right call in the short term.
Take a look at the Nov put action. Almost 20,000 contracts traded.
Do you mean an offering or his private stash? If you meant the latter, it would be time trim down considerably for me. He has twice now in the last two events brought up the fact that he has not sold a share. Almost bragging. Any selling by him anytime in the near term would be damaging imo.
I have been long since sub 3, and still like the prospects, but the recent talk from the company is raising red flags to me. Too much like spin.
Off topic and speaking of how freaking long:
Did Aria give any guidance at the Friday conference as to the Rida endometrial trial? I don't remember hearing anything. I listened to it at 1 am, so I might of missed it.
More importantly, do you know anyone who would offer $45 tomorrow?
This Prohost guy just threw the match on the buyout gasoline again. This will be kicked around here for a while, then Dew will come in with his giant pale of reality water and put it out again. :)
Unless hostile, we are going at it alone, IMO. Harv has waited this long, so for a few more years, he waits @ a mil + salary/incentives and watches his holdings appreciate significantly and make him a very wealthy man in a fairly short timen (let's say 3 years). Not so tough an existence is it now?
But who knows? Crazier things have happened in biotech land.
Happy Father's Day gentlemen!
Edit: Some people live for the thrill of creating something outstanding. If Harv is one of those people (and I am pretty sure he is), could you imagine the rush of potentially curing cancer (so to speak) and becoming fabulously wealthy at the same time? Holy s#%t! How's that one for feeding the big ego?
Ahh not him thanks.
Shall I assume Kyle Bass was our big seller a few weeks back?
Lets just say you lost and forget the rest. Im shocked it was up today. Lets see what next week brings
BTH lives to post for another weekend. Post up my boy. Post up.
If it is that early I can't make it. My little guy graduates that day. Late morning, I can do.
Will the Ihub moderator tag get me in? Last time I bent the truth some.
No, but that didn't stop me from attending Leerink Swann.
BTW, some might believe I should be INSTITUTIONALIZED, but that's a whole different story
What time and where? I might be able to drop in
I knew it. BTH lives to post his venom yet another day. LOL