sgolds,

whether or not Intel's layoffs will make them more competitive with AMD...

The layoff's will have a minimum impact on Intel's competitiveness. Intel's NGMA has more than enough horsepower to challange and beat AMD. The purpose of the layoff's are to reduce costs and return more than the usual profits to the company and help raise the stock price. That is why after the initial reaction, you will see the stock market (as in most cases) react positively to these type of announcements.

IMHO

smooth2o,

Well from the trash rag Inq article (self proclaimed reporters of "friction" - boy they are clever!):

"It's interesting to note that none of the chip giant's Netburst processors got on Newegg's top ten list. If that was replicated elsewhere that would suggest that in the channel at least a glut of such devices is growing."

From EETimes,

"According to FBR, Intel has largely burned off the excess inventories of P4 microprocessors that plagued the company earlier this year. In fact, P4 microprocessors could see spot shortages as demand is soaring following a round a price cuts in July."

http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=192300818

You decide.

IMHO

Success has its downside.

New virus attacks AMD processors

http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2163054/virus-attacks-amd-processors

IMHO

mas,

Thanks for the link. Here is the summary:

Though AMD has not landed a great coup with the Turion 64 X2, the first 64 bit CPU with two execution units for laptops, the engineers in Dresden and Sunnyvale deserve commendation. They have succeeded in developing a laptop CPU that provides considerably more performance than its single-core predecessor Turion 64, but whose power consumption is the same or only slightly higher.

However, compared to an Intel platform based on the Core Duo and the company's own GM 945 chipset, the combination of AMD CPU and ATI chipset is inferior in terms of battery time and multitasking performance. Therefore, under equal conditions, it can only be regarded as the second choice - if it is worth getting at all. The Core Duo 2, Intel's next generation of laptop processors is already at hand, and first measurements show that the Core Duo 2 is even more powerful while not consuming more power.

However, this should not prevent potential laptop buyers from purchasing a Turion 64 X2 laptop. After all, a Turion 64 X2 laptop, like the MSI S271 or HP Compaq nx6325, also provides that "dual-core experience" with almost no delays when switching between concurrently running applications.

In our opinion, the most critical issue is that AMD has, for the first time, lost a vital sales proposition for its processors, namely the price advantage. Nevertheless, we continue to encourage users to purchase AMD laptops. Otherwise, Intel may become a second Waterloo for all users, relegating AMD laptop processors to the dustbins of history.


ROTFL. Thats right. Support AMD's crusade against evil Intel. Buy inferior AMD products. Good advice.

IMHO

CyberLink Claims AMD is not ready for HD/BD

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=33961

IMHO

Rumor: AMD is having trouble with 65nm processor voltages

http://www.legitreviews.com/news/2592/

Hmmmmm?

IMHO

Some more anectodal pricing for investors to chew on(courtesy of Pricegrabber):

If it's Friday, AMD and Intel dual-core prices must be falling

Prices for AMD dual-core processors are taking another pre-weekend dip, according to the latest data from PriceGrabber, with the Athlon 64 X2 5000+ falling the furthest since Monday: down $47 (13.1%) to $313. The trouble for AMD is, Intel prices are continuing to fall at the high end.

http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/08/25/if_its_friday_dual-core_must_be_falling/

While Pentium D 930 prices dropped a terrific 14.4% over Monday to $172, Pentium D 830 prices rose an astonishing $60, up 32.8% to $243.

IMHO

DARBES,

fud on snow fud on...all that u have is fud

FUD. Facts - Undeniable - Disturbing.

IMHO

mas,

wouldn't you say that this is bad initial pricing on Intel's part to leave such margins on the resellers tables?

No. Unlike your beloved AMD, which strives for a duopoly and seeks a co-conspirator in raping its OEM's, distributors, and ultimately its customers, Intel is not in competition with these folks. They are partners and part of the food chain that Intel respects and works with. Intel will have no problem getting it's fair share of the pie and profits. AMD on the other hand will find itself scraping for crumbs within a year. Too bad.

IMHO

Reseller Mike,

"AMD's legal counsel did not object to the request to file the subpoena"

Ya think maybe AMD's counsel thought of that?

Actually, this is exactly what Intel said (my emphasis):

"5. Counsel for AMD and counsel for class plaintiffs have stated that their clients do not object to the relief requested in the present motion, although plaintiffs have reserved all substantive objections to the requests"

http://www.theinquirer.net/images/articles/ATIsubpoenafromIntel.pdf

Since I am not a lawyer, I would appreciate if anyone with legal knowledge can shed some light on the emphasized sentence.

IMHO

wbmw,

Say Goodbye to ATI brand

How nice. AMD paying homage to Intel by having ATI pay($$$) to be a "silver" sponsor of Fall IDF. And Nvidia will be an exhibitor, but not ATI!

http://www.intel.com/idf/us/fall2006/participation/showcase/se_list.htm

buhbye ATI.

IMHO

mas,

Goldman Sachs is bullish on Intel and Conroe. Look for Cramer to follow and AMD to dive.

IMHO

chipguy,

AMD's free ride in server space appears to be over

Yep. This from AMD's lapdog. Here is a synopsis from someone at SI:

Sossaman success led to increase in intel server sales. "Intel sales 15% by revs, 24% by unit. Significant increase from Q1.

Many customers evaluating Bensley/Woodcrest. To some extent, this is delaying purchasing decision.

Although sales are heavily weighted to AMD Opteron, expect Woodcrest sales to increase in coming quarters."

DDR1 cost increases hurting Opteron sales. Don't expect to sell significant amount of DDR2 based socket F in Q3.

Woodcrest uses DDR2. Expect to sell significant amount of Woodcrest in Q3

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22664594

Hear it for yourself 7 minutes into the actual CC:

http://investors.rackable.com/MediaRegister.cfm?MediaID=21005

BTW, According to the AMD fanatics, it was supposed to take quite a while for Intel to regain momentum it lost the past year. Well, not according to what you quoted here,

We have seen a lot of customers, including major customers, really evaluate the next round of decisions between Intel and AMD," one executive said, during a conference call with analysts

IMHO

mas,

These are investor boards and not customer satisfaction boards..

But you said you are not an investor in these companies, what are you doing on these boards?

Not all discussion needs to be insular and about what concerns us personally ..

So you are not an investor, but you are on these boards for what reason? Sounds to me something is bothering you. I translate that into a personal reaction.

IMHO

mas,

The money lost will never be got back but as a dividend to customers they all thank Intel very much

Well then, as a customer (and not an investor, per your admission) you should be thanking Intel also. Instead, all I see is you do is bitch and cry. You say Intel investors are in pain, and your the one crying. To top it all off, you wonder why few people take you seriously.

IMHO

salasidis,

Does anyone see this deal as a problem of AMD actually having lost all diversification, and needing some added source of revenue in case CPU revenues start to dry up over the next year.

Convolution of AMD's financial statements going forward is a desirable side affect of this deal. However, as you have mentioned, they had this (diversified revenue) with flash. With this deal comming so close to the spin-off of their flash unit, one really wonders what sudden event made AMD rush to this deal? Perhaps the realization of how good Intel's next gen architecture turned out to be?

IMHO

Re: (KeithDust2000 said) you will see the first positive effects of this move for AMD in 2006 already. I´ll get back to you on this as those announcements come in.

...

See? I can make a vague and easily proven prediction as well.

Kinda like the lawsuit. One could argue that every design win coming after the lawsuit, was because of the affect the lawsuit had on Intel, irrespective of product strengths or other market dynamics. Looks, like the same will hold true here. The most obvious example will be if/when Dell or some other OEM announces a design win for AMD. "See, the ATI deal is paying off!". Bravo!

IMHO

mas,

Merged AMD-ATI monster embarks on monopoly-busting

I thought the lawsuit was going to do that?

IMHO

Intel turns corner in China, retakes share in Q2

Intel Corp. (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's largest chip maker, said on Monday it has begun winning back market share in China from archrival AMD (AMD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) in the second quarter, as it tried to reverse two years of steady losses.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060724:MTFH42371_2...

IMHO

KeithDust2000,

...and think that you will see the first positive effects of this move for AMD in 2006 already. I´ll get back to you on this as those announcements come in.

Of course you will see positive effects. But as long as you are on the lookout for these, keep an eye on any negative effects, as well. It is the sum of these that will determine the success or failure of this deal. AMD just put two difficult tasks on its plate. 1) Support the ATI fianancials as its own 2) Execute on the technical issues ATI technology brings. All this on top of dealing with Intel. I do see your point, however, from the angle that AMD had no other choice. Better to have a chance to survive than certain death.

BTW, I will give you one negative affect already. This does not help AMD in its lawsuit.

IMHO

Tenchu, wbmw,

After all, I'm curious as well. Convertible bonds can explain some of the increase in equity, but a five-and-a-half billion dollar increase? I don't think AMD sold that many bonds.

Well if we are all confused about the magic AMD accountants have done with AMD finances, the AMD/ATI merger/takeover will just make it that much worse.

It would have been good to see how AMD's core business stood on its own. Seems that everytime something like that is about to happen, AMD sells/buys something( companies, debt, shares etc) to convolute matters.

One thing I know for a fact. On Nov 19, 2001 AMD had 313 million shares outstanding. Today they have 485 million. That is a 54% dilution. Tommorrow??? Of course there is nothing wrong with dilution if the company uses the proceeds in a positive way. And, if losses are on the horizon, dilution makes the per share loss smaller ;))

http://parkercenter.johnson.cornell.edu/docs/cayuga_fund/2000_2001/research_reports/amd_1.pdf

BTW, Interesting link. AMD merged its flash operations with Fujitsu. Then it spun it off into Spansion. Considering AMD's balance sheet, the wheeling and dealing seems to have paid off. Now they may merge with ATI. Crazy.

IMHO

KeithDust2000,

RUMOUR: AMD and ATI to ask shareholders for merger approval

I am somewhat suspicious of a merger. However, given what AMD is saying about Torrenza (open CPU architecture/platform???), it is highly likely something is brewing between them.

IMHO

chipguy,

A buck sixty to INTC/AMD cross over

That is a slam dunk. A more interesting cross over is AMD/SPSN. With SPSN moving in the wrong direction and AMD in hot pursuit, this can get ugly.

IMHO

wbmw,

But where does the $10M come from?

From this,

These results include $18 million of employee stock-based compensation expense and a net gain of $10 million associated with Spansion LLC.'s repurchase of its 12.75 percent senior subordinated notes.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA3A378E2%2D6E2F%2D4ABE%2D9EE9%2D1F07DFB19E3...

IMHO

Well done Intel on making both sets of investors poorer.

Stop crying! There are people (like Joey Smith) who have puts and are making money.

IMHO

wbmw,

but only $102M in operating income to show for it.

Yep...

Operating income was $102 million in the second quarter, up from $83 million in the second quarter of 2005 and down from $259 million in the first quarter of 2006. The decline in operating income from the prior quarter was due largely to lower sales and increased operating expenses related to an extra week of operations in the quarter, and marketing expenses in support of the company's long-term goals to acquire new customers, expand business with existing customers, and increase commercial sales.

Also a $10 million one time gain (-0.02), and extra week on top.

IMHO

alan81, ALL,

If I recall correctly...

Here is a transcript of the Intel CC. Thanks to someone on SI for the link.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/13895

IMHO

Anandtech: Intel Woodcrest: the Birth of a New King

"In May of this year, AnandTech made their way up to Oregon to have a look at Woodcrest...While in Oregon, we also took a look at a running Clovertown machine. Clovertown is the code name for Intel's quad-core chip, which is coming out in early 2007. It will be a drop-in part to most Woodcrest systems, running at 1066MHz FSB. How's that for upgradeability: 4-way to 8-way in under 20 minutes (your mileage may vary)."

and

Not only did they produce what we think is the best two socket server processor on the market today, but they have quad-core up their sleeve and it will most likely release before AMD has an answer to Woodcrest.

In conclusion:

Intel has finally created a product that is not just competitive to the AMD Opteron. Woodcrest outperforms all of the competition in 2-way configurations, and it does so with lower power consumption. This combination leads to better Performance/Watt in all tested situations. Woodcrest not only outperforms it's predecessor by over 100% in Performance/Watt, but it outperforms Opteron by as much as 60% in Performance/Watt. In terms of straight performance the Woodcrest led the way by anywhere from 18 to 35% at higher system loads.

more at:

http://www.anandtech.com/IT/showdoc.aspx?i=2793

Adios AMD ;)

IMHO

ixse,

This slide puts production of 65nm in Dec.

Not sure the relavence to your question, but note these are "Samples Schedule" - production 65nm in Dec.

Sorry if I am just "nitpicking",

IMHO

wbmw,

AMD Shares Continue to Slide

AMD stock price has been in reverse since February. Maybe that is what they meant by AMD having reverse hyperthreading? LOL

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMD&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

What's next? Reverse market share gains? Reverse profits?

IMHO

jhalada

re: Fleckenstein

Give it up already. Fleckenstein is what is called a intel permabear. His opinion is meaningless. He hated Intel in 1995, hated Intel in 2000, hates Intel in 2006 and will hate Intel in 2010. Do you see a pattern here? Let me help you. The following link is from Jan 21, 1997 by your buddy Jim Cramer. This is what he thinks of good ole Fleck, then.

http://www.thestreet.com/comment/wrong/584957.html

Take William Fleckenstein, the totally compelling, earnest Luddite who has been short--at least publicly--every computer and chip maker on earth. No matter that these stocks, particularly, Intel, Compaq and Microsoft continue to astound with fabulous numbers and unbelievable execution. When the press wants a comment on technology, there's Fleckenstein presenting a well-articulated sound bite that would scare Andy Grove out of his Intel shares.

and again...

But there's Fleckenstein spouting off yet again about the dangers of the PC cycle.

Now you, jhalada...

The facts are in: He is right, you are wrong. Intel has been a terrible investment for years now.

The facts are in: you have been schooled. Now go home, lol.

IMHO

Tenchu,

Meanwhile, didn't an AMD exec brag about parking his Ferrari next to an Intel exec's Prius? #msg-10342473 Who's wasting energy now?

Excellent pick-up! I hope Intel PR exposes this contrast in corporate behavior. Hilarious! AMD may have some good technology and products but their management continuous to display it's childish mentality. Their management/marketing is a joke and judging by some on the "street", it is starting to show.

IMHO

heinz2005,

Q2 will be total Panic @Intel and INTC.

You forgot to mention the lawsuit, the ugly Intel logo, Otellini's receding hairline etc. LOL.

The only panic I sense at this time, is from you. Well, you should panic.

IMHO

Dan3,

But it would have been very difficult to have not made money on a stock that's gone from $3 to $30 in the past couple of years.

As usual, you purposefully leave out a minor detail that undermines your point of view. The stock actually went to $44; did you know that? Now, depending on how much affect FUD had on you at $3 and how much euphoria you had at $44, I can EASILY see situations where one buys tons more at $44 than at $3. By the time it hits $30, you are lucky to break even, or are under water. Of course, I know YOU never believed a stock at $44 would ever go to $100, given that it was obvious the company will make $3.00 / share. LOL.

As for Intel, you are right. There is a lot of money lost as losers dump it. Time to go pick it up.

IMHO

jeff_wafer,

"Suns dying.. slow, painful, death. "

Revenue rising - Opteron server sales up 80+ percent.

Hitching your future on a 3 year old CPU architecture, manufactured by a company who's process technology is at the mercy of one your main competitors, whose performance is about to be leap-frogged in 2 quarters time, while padding revenues with the purchase of a commodity disk drive business, does not sound like a great plan to me. But I could be wrong.

IMHO

highlandpk,

Highlighted from your link: The company looks to put a particular focus on Opteron-based systems, which it admits that not enough people know about at this time.

"Jonathan is actually just strapping my butt to an airplane seat for the next 90 days," McNealy said. "There is a huge story to tell here, and I know the story, and I am not bad at telling it.

This is Sun admitting that after 3 years of Opteron's existence, it requires the personal attention of a has-been CEO, to try and convince people his decision was a good one, in the face of Intel's NGMA. BTW, someone should ask Scooter if the ticket is round trip or one-way. LOL.

IMHO

wbmw,

I wonder what the new CEO will do to change things in McNealy's absence?

I will put on my tin foil hat and do my best Droidian impersonation.

Perhaps SUN has seen the "light" and is coveting, err drooling, over the NGMA performance vs anything they will have today or tomorrow and realizes that with Scooter at the helm, the "sun" will go supernova before they get any chips from Intel? Nahh!

Of course, the first sign of Schwartz making warm, fuzzy, comments about Intel and this may not be so far fetched after all.

IMHO

drjohn,

ViiV is more ambitions and tougher than centrinno, VIIV will take a lot more colabortion with content providers etc.

I agree with this also. I view the ViiV challenge as a classic case of chicken and egg. You need platforms to have content providers participate, yet without the content the platforms will be a tough sell (i.e. what so special about them without the content?) Intel's choice is easy but the task difficult. Get the platforms out and build enough of a "buzz" to get content providers to make it the platform of choice for distributing and hosting their content. Some content providers have already bought into this, but more are needed. If Intel can convince consumers that ViiV provides all the capability they would need to take advantage of unique and desirable content, today and in the future, they will have huge success. It will take time and marketing, but Intel said ViiV platforms are having a good ramp, so...

BTW, the upcoming core products will be a huge factor, as you say, and I think this is mistakenly being discounted by the analysts and reporters.

IMHO

highlandpk,

Intel has to Increase rev in the back half of the year by between 15-22% to hit their full year revenue marker - that is a very big ask when you consider what they have done over the last 3 years:

Intel had 20 billion in revs in Q3 and Q4 of 2005 competing with inferior products. Barring an industry or world wide slump, Intel has a good chance at beating this number.

IMHO

highlandpk,

FWIW, Pru doesn't do any investment banking so their research is completely independent - I always listen a little more carefully to what they have to say.

FWIW, Hans Mossessman has a sell on AMD. Turns out he used to work for AMD and I always listen a little more carefully to what he has to say.

These guys from PRU have been yelling sell for some time now and nobody seems to want to hear it.

What are you talking about? Intel has been heading south for over a year. Someone has been listening.

I view this as very dangerous situation for Intel shareholders based on managements overly optimistic 2nd half projections.

I am not surprised.

When those get missed, the boys in beantown will be unloading as fast as they can;

I am guessing the boys in Beantown are the Fidelity people? They have been heavy sellers for some time now and they have relatively few shares left to sell. Their next move, if any, will be to buy Intel.

BTW, the combination of negative analysts opinion and optimistic Intel company officials make for a potentially huge move one way or the other. Keep in mind that it is Intel company officials who have the fate of the outcome in their hands and not your friendly neighborhood analyst.

IMHO