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wbmw,
Intel has the lowest cost structure, genius.
Are you basing this statement on the humorous cost analysis of the Microprocessor report?
Joe
NaS,
Interesting. Another prerequisite for purchase is a card that can drive it, which I currently don't have.
Joe
Tenchu,
I thought they were. Besides, you can open up and edit any Microsoft Office document on a Mac, including those created on a PC.
The only hang-up I have with a Mac, besides the price, is that not all the latest PC games are ported to a Mac.
But if you have already paid for the games or other software, have them sitting on your shelf, do you want to pay for them again?
Joe
tecate,
I'm planning on getting an apple laptop maybe in the fall
Are you going to buy new copies of all the software essential to you, that you have bought over time? Or is Browser, E-mail, solitaire and reversi "standard" on Macs?
Joe
chipguy,
I didn't mean that eDRAM would be used as main memory for Graphics. Only a buffer or cache for integrated graphics, and main memory will continue to be the main storage.
Now, whether eDram will be on the same die or separate, I have no idea. I think it would not make all that much sense for it to be a separate chip, because once you go off-chip, you can, instead, use much higher capacity, locally attached memory. Perhaps less bandwidth (and you may need more than one chip) but much higher capacity, lower cost.
Joe
Combjelly,
Graphics companies are surely interested. There are supposed to be integrated chipsets with on die buffer released this year. I guess they will be using eDRAM.
Joe
NaS,
There is a small price decrease of X2s scheduled, according to The Inq:
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=29095
Joe
Combjelly,
Neat monitor. I will get one when it drops below $1,500.
Joe
Keith,
Check out this document:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22001269
A big chunk of inventories (bigger than I expected) went to Spansion. More than a half. The table to look at is the last one.
Another thing to look at is cash. I don't know if AMD generated any cash from the Spansion IPO. If not, AMD somehow increased the cash position by > $500M in just 1 quarter.
Can anyone explain how AMD went from $1,223M to $1,794M cash?
Joe
smooth,
All well and good. But my point is that Conroe is apparently available at 3.3GHz and is a harbinger of what's to come. Perception is sometimes reality and very often Intel does not play to the marketing game.
Intel has already sent for "preview" Dempsey, P4EE without actual shipments. How deep into these "previews" do you want Intel to go?
I think Intel is already going a little too deep into pushing unavailable product. I guess it may be a good strategy (in general) to defer competitor's sales, but even though it may be a sound strategy, it didn't look like it worked in Q4, when AMD sold out the production. If that happened, Intel probably deferred more of its own sales than AMD's.
Joe
... Notebooks and price cuts helped the PC market grow by 16.4 percent worldwide in 2005 in terms of units, although the rate of growth will likely slow down this year, according to IDC...
... In all, 208.6 million desktops, notebooks and x86 servers left factories and workshops in 2005, according to IDC. The estimated value, or revenue, generated by these machines worldwide likely came to around $218 billion, an increase of 9 percent over $200 billion in 2004...
http://news.com.com/PC+market+surged+in+2005%2C+will+settle+in+2006/2100-1003_3-6028454.html?tag=nef....
Joe
Petz,
Another way to look at the share loss from INtel is that they probably lost >1% of CPU unit share. But 3% of the units they shipped went into additional inventory at OEMs and didn't result in PC sales. Therefore, they might have lost 4% PC unit share.
It does not add up mathematically unless those 3% Intel did not sell got replaced one for one by increased AMD sales.
Consider an example: Intel started with 82%, AMD with 18%. Or let's say 82 units vs. 18 units. Next, Intel sells only 79 units and (for the sake of the argument) AMD does not change, remains at 18 units. Ending market share is 81.25% and 18.75%.
Joe
Dan,
And while he's at it, he should note that (absent forward expectations) it's a good time to add to Ford and GM holdings, too.
I don't think Intel is in the same category. Intel has virtually no debts, no unions, and even if Intel loses a few percentages of market share, Intel will still remain vastly profitable. Intel now has a a decent dividend yield.
The risk is that Intel continues to f.up, and the basket that is holding all of Intel's eggs is somehow dropped, but it is not a very high probability risk.
I don't think of Intel as a growth stock, but a mature profitable company, good for conservative investors. I think it would be even excellent investment for conservative investors if Intel moderated the giveaway of the investors' fortune to the employees, slowed down the stock repurchases, and increased the dividend.
Plus, there is always a chance for an upside in the technology world, arising from opportunities that Intel can jump on, with its vast capacity.
To put it another way, while I am long AMD, I would not short Intel.
Joe
I think Intel shareholders have still not recovered from the "shocking" information that Intel is losing money on flash... Way too much info...
Joe
Keith,
Ok. I thought you were talking about Q4 2005, when stronger overall demand would not have helped AMD by much, if at all...
Joe
Keith,
This remains as a concern for me...
Why? AMD was sold out. Any demand in excess of what actually happened would have gone to Intel anyway...
Joe
jj,
It looks like I seriously overestimated Intel's CPU results. By almost a billion... I expected the Q4 to be better, overall, than it is actually going to turn out. AMD may have taken a share from Intel, but not a billion's worth.
I wonder how Intel (and overall market) did on units. Intel did indicate lower ASPs...
Joe
wbmw,
This quarter is looking to be one of the most lousy in recent years. I wonder how much has been built into the stock or not...
Only compared to expectations. If you look at the results without the estimates and expectations, Intel is still making a ton of money.
Joe
Keith,
Some of it may be connected to what you posted earlier today, regarding Lenovo's and HP's %s of consumer PCs in China.
Joe
vbg,
Keep in mind that the shortage is in chipsets, not processors.
That's what you get when you listen to audio only. Andy actually winked twice when he said that with his right eye, like this )), ))
Joe
bobs,
To me anyway, it's looking more and more like the only thing that’s been holding AMD back has been the lack of capacity.
While it is possible that more capacity could open new opportunities for AMD (that were closed before), the only time in recent history (5 years), the only time when AMD was sold out was Q4 2005.
Joe
AG, Buggi,
Take a look at this post for my estimate on units shipped. My conclusion is that it was 55M to 60M in Q3. From that, you can apply whatever growth you think is appropriate for Q3 -> Q4:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8256001&txt2find=q3+
Joe
AG,
only about 3:1 Intel in notebooks in the Poughkeepsie NY Circuit City.
I saw a similar ratio in NYC Circuit City. I didn't get an exact count, but it seemed like 30 to 40% AMD. There was time when the ration at Best Buy and Comp USA was like 30 to 2.
Joe
Buggi,
I think Q4 processor shipments are significantly above 55M units.
Joe
Dan,
Here's a listing of the systems that are being advertised by Best Buy and Circuit City this week. Seems like Intel is losing the "hearts and minds" battle. Note the progress AMD is making in the mobile space.
That cannot possibly be true. I know, because wbmw told me. AMD is going to lose 1/2 market share in mobile and ASPs will be questionable. As soon as Yonah arrives. The Yonah release will be so earth shattering that all of this will happen.
Maybe I will have to contact one of the Intel investors, the one with a Y2K shelter, and ask him if I can stay in his shelter during this Earth shattering moment.
BTW, what is the latest about the Yonah release? When will it happen? I have lost track.
Joe
Buggi,
that isn't correct. Porsche has aquired nearly 20% of
VW
It's the same as saying that Porsche owns a stake in Volkswagen (which is what I posted).
Porsche is manufacturing his cars in its OWN
fabrics. And VW is doing the same. Its true, that they
share some parts, as this is common on different modells
in each manufacture lines -> platform approach.
You are right. I just checked, and apparently VW makes just the body of the Porsche Cayenne, and the final assembly is done in Leipzig Germany.
Joe
mmoy,
is the Camry plant unionized? A friend of mind works for a GM vendor inside GM plants, and he said that the union just completely poison the atmosphere in the plants.
Joe
morrowinder,
I'm not a big First person shooter fan though based on your postings I assume you are:)
Isn't Morrowind first person? Except you hack and slash instead of shooting.
I play mostly strategy games, with occasional FPS and RPG.
Joe
mmoy,
My understanding is that Porsche owns a stake in Volkswagen. Volkswagen manufactures some models for Porsche, such as the Cayenne SUV.
Joe
This guys a joke.
Interesting argument from a "Dell gamer"...
Joe
Keith,
Click on this link (this thread):
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1606
You will see options "show/hide board info", "show/hide quotes"
When you select "show quotes" for this thread, instead of AMD share price it shows Yahoo share price.
Joe
Keith,
Click on "show quote" on the list view.
Joe
Keith,
, it looks unwise to make the 5000+ a 2x1MB L2 cache part, it should be 2x512lb L2 unless the move to M2 decreases performance.
Yes, you are right.
Also, it seems that AMD will have to rely on clockspeed improvements to keep up with Conroe, not IPC improvements.
You may be right, but are you saying this, somehow in reference to the article, or independent of it? Is it because you think that AMD would leave some gap, and value F Stepping higher than E?
A good move with the all-512kb A64 line.
Agreed.
Should Tom´s info be more or less correct, you´d win your clockspeed bet :)
With so many contradictory stories, I think we will have to wait until the official PR from AMD to know who got it right.
Joe
Gateway Athlon 64 X2 3800 BTX box:
http://babelfish.altavista.com/babelfish/urltrurl?lp=ja_en&trurl=http%3a%2f%2fpc.watch.impress.c...
Also, Mobile Athlon 64 3700 notebook there.
Joe
...All Socket M2 processors will be based on a common DDR2 memory controller that is validated for 333 MHz operation (DDR2-667), with only the cache size and clock speed differentiating the individual processors. There will be 2 x 1 MB or 2 x 512 KB L2 cache for the dual cores, 512 KB L2 cache for the single core Athlon 64 models and 256 KB for the Sempron series. While Intel's chipset specifications officially support 4 clock CAS latencies for DDR2-667 memory only, there is some headroom for AMD to optimize the memory interface for CAS 3. This circumstance could become significant, as the performance difference between the current Socket 939 processors and their upcoming Socket M2 counterparts will be rather small, according to sources.
The Socket M2 launch will be flanked by at least four Athlon 64 X2 models, which are based on the 90 nm Windsor core. These processors will be running the clock speeds we are familiar with today. However, AMD will introduce an Athlon 64 X2 5000+ clocked at 2.6 GHz and equipped with 1x 1 MB L2 cache. Frequent readers of TG Daily and Tom's Hardware Guide may now notice that these are the exact specifications of the Athlon 64 FX-60 that recently was launched. This FX-60 processor will be replaced by a 2.8 GHz FX-62 at M2 launch.
The single core Athlon 64 family will be slimmed down to just three models integrating the 90 nm Orleans core. The Athlon 64 4000+ will be running at 2.6 GHz, as it comes with 512 KB L2 cache only (today's 4000+ is a 1 MB part). The 3800+ runs at 2.4 GHz; the Athlon 64 3500+ will be the entry level chip at 2.2 GHz. Both the Athlon 64 and the Athlon 64 X2 will support AMD's virtualization technology known as "Pacifica."
Last but not least, the Sempron family will consist of four members at the time of M2 launch. All Sempron processors are based on the 90 nm Manila core and carry only 256 KB L2, but they do come with AMD's dual channel DDR2-667 interface. This potentially could make Sempron the clearly better choice when compared to Intel's Celeron. The Sempron models 3500+, 3400+, 3200+ and 3000+ will run at 2.2, 2.0, 1.8 and 1.6 GHz, respectively. 3600+ and 3800+ models 2.4 and 2.6 GHz apparently are available already and could be added to the line-up, as soon as Intel speeds up the Celeron family.
http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/01/13/amd_m2_platform_launch/
HP Eager to Sell Dual-Core Servers, Unfazed By Dell Rumors
...This transition to dual-cores is going pretty much as expected--which means quite fast," says Cumings, who declined to provide shipment numbers (so he could keep his job). "The beauty of the dual-core solution is that you get more performance without paying the power penalties." Tines took a jab at IBM's Power4 and Power5 processors, which show excellent performance, but which run pretty hot. Then again, so does the Itanium processor that the other side of HP's server house--the Business Critical Servers unit--loves so well. What Cumings would say is that the majority of Opteron-based ProLiant sales have dual-core processors in them. He added that customers in the financial services and high performance computing areas were among the early adopters of dual-core servers, mainly because of their need for extra bang while staying in the same electricity and cooling budget...
...By virtue of AMD having delivered a full line of dual-core, 64-bit processors well ahead of Intel, HP was able to get the jump on a lot of vendors because of its relatively early and enthusiastic support of the Opteron. The big question mark is what will happen to HP's momentum in dual-core servers, which is driven mostly by actual Opteron sales and hopeful expectations for Paxville and Dempsey sales, when and if Dell goes toe-to-toe with HP with a line of Opteron and another line of Xeon dual-core servers. There are rumors, yet again, that Dell is pondering a move to Opterons for notebooks, desktops, and servers.
"Who knows what Dell is going to do," says Cumings with a laugh. "But whatever Dell does, it is not going to change our product line or our strategy. We are leading in a new market--as we tend to do--and they are playing catch up."
http://www.itjungle.com/breaking/bn011206-story01.html
Joe
Chipguy,
Those larger IPF systems sport many more processors
per system each with a significantly higher ASP. The
average $80k IPF server has roughly $16k worth of IPF
chips in it.
If assumption of the IPF worth of stuff is based on number of processors x list price, you are making a wrong assumption
Joe
wbmw,
Want to provide a link, liar?
I provided the link several times already. here it is one more time:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7905326
I said to "look for a place to sell", which may be a bearish statement, but far from recommending a put position. If you had followed my advice, you would be holding your current shares until the price falls, which still hasn't happened yet.
The price did fall already. From ~ $24 of your "sell" advise to $21. So I guess that was it. Or was it?
Ok, looking RETROACTIVELY it wasn't it. I understand that you are waiting to provide a RETROACTIVELY the exact timing of your sell recommendation...
A put position at this point is not the advice of a broken clock, but rather a statement that the stock has gone from bullish to highly oversold.
??? you mean overbought?
If I were you, I'd be watching the price daily (not that you deviate from this anyway), but I would also be setting a stop price to bail out in case the flood gates give way. The market was expecting good things from AMD, but now they seem to be expecting the world, and there is low likelihood of AMD being able to deliver to today's expectations, let alone the pie-and-the-sky hope that they will continue to take large share portions from Intel now that Intel is ramping 65nm.
AMD was supposed already supposed to be buried by 300mm wafers, 90nm, cost of SOI, now 65nm...
Joe
chipguy,
What a hoot. In 2005 Intel sold about $500m worth of IPF
chips
Link please
that probably cost it around $40m to manufacture.
Link please
In another few years when Intel is netting a cool billion plus on these chips and x86 server ASPs are celeronized you guys will whining how unfair Intel's IPF monopoly is.
It is already "another few years".
Joe
mmoy,
Etrade apparently bought another brokerage and I guess
they were dumped on the same set of servers.
See my post here:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9228179
Joe