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I added 0034s as well. BMAK is converting, BKRT is selling what it converted. BMAK looks like it's trying to finish up. BKRT is staying behind BMAK for now. We are all watching to see what the two B's do this session. And you're right--never in a hurry to buy anything. Been watching almost a month before buying first share here.
Happy holidays.
Time to get on bid on VPOR. Look at L2 action. BMAK looking to finish. This MM BKRT sure is annoying though. A few more hours to watch.
Keep watching L2 0034/0035 back/forth prints...
This is mostly retail selling action. Look at the way the tape is printing. Selling is tapering off here. Good time to look at bid points.
$ECIG.
That is not the CEO buying per se. If you read the fine print on the Form 4, it states that he took a convertible note. One part of what he added is from the origination fee for the convertible note and the other part shows the number of shares due to him upon conversion at 0.0005. I would not consider this a purchase at this point.
But really excellent move on $ADMD and congratulations to all the players!
In an earlier post, I had stated that I liked VPOR due to its exponential growth and stated that my assumptions were conservative. When I put a 2.4c price target for 2015 (and yes it is a one year assumption), it is abundantly clear that I applied a linear growth model which makes the assumption even more conservative yet immature name calling and accusations were passed out which has no place on a public forum like VPOR or others--I don't tolerate that. We are here to speculate-- this is still a highly speculative OTC play.
Never seen shareholders on any stock that didn't appreciate people who liked their stock, be it for short or long term. Pure stupidity if you asked me.
Lenders converting at 0037 range tells me that they consider the price point as one that could present the maximum, short term profit opportunity. Since the last PR, more conversions went through which tells me another big PR can be expected here shortly.
I don't know about sector rally coming to VPOR though as it is not yet a pure MJ play.
An assumption that puts a 2.4c target trading price by the end of 2015 on VPOR is the most realistic and fundamentally sound analysis on this board.
The poster is not supporting your view. The poster is suggesting that if $VPOR had enough revenues by April, perhaps the Magna/Hanover note can be restructured which is contrary to your opinion. Too funny.
You're on record for stating that VPOR is worth 20c at $10 million in revenues. I am on record for stating that VPOR could trade at 2.4c if revenue target of $12 million can be achieved. The other one gave VPOR a market cap of +$40 million. So, who is being the most realistic here?
VPOR is going to be 20c with revenues of $10 million?
And on 11/21, VPOR was undervalued?
P/E for this sector is an 8?
And I'm the one misleading folks...ROFL
I think you're spot on. VPOR trades very thin with the O/S it has because there are many, many stuckholders who bought senselessly above 1c. They can't get any action at this current price level so the stock trades as if the O/S and Float are 150 million shares. This is where baggies are very useful to the stock because they are like "locked float" that can't participate without taking a massive loss.
I think these are fair estimates. I will maintain my earlier comment that I expect to see debt reduction by at least 1/2 from last 10Q. IF VPOR is able to achieve this and grow revenues as they have been, it is quite possible to restructure Magna/Hanover yet again and perhaps do a fixed conversion price like before or pay it down with new financing and buy an additional 6 months of time before new notes convert.
But you know, only flippers can come up with such well thought out due diligence. At 0037 and current O/S, VPOR's market cap is aligned with its projected, total 2014 revenues. +1c buys on VPOR a month or two ago was a big mistake because the O/S as of 11/14 and pps above 1c gave VPOR a market cap of +$40 million which it has not earned in revenues or otherwise--that is more than 8x this year's full revenues. This explains why VPOR baggies are so upset and are taking it out on new VPOR holders who are buying in at the right price.
VPOR's share price will correct as more revenues are reported while debt is reduced.
You're deflecting. Come up with your p-value. You've moved on to OHMS now as an argument?
It's funny that you think laughter is a measure of "more speaking" and if that were the case, you beat me to that mostly with nonsense, except most aren't laughing from your DD on $VPOR simply because there is nothing relevant other than to invest with a faith based approach. "God" isn't going to pick VPOR out of thousands and thousands of issuers and make it go BIG just because you think it should. That is the fairy notion of God which all should steer of. I mean, this is just so ridiculous.
Look-- VPOR is going to make a big move. If you want to bag hold to 2016 or whatever, do that but by all means pick your opponents because I don't buy your long hold.
My advice to you is not on VPOR: Get back to the basics of learning the alphabet because that is where you are mentally and emotionally.
That is really a good move on your part. Understand the following as a point for the future:
1) We do not talk p values on a stock like VPOR--it simply is a misplaced measure to discuss the sector, just does not apply on a bigger scale. The only time that a p value might be used here is to assess movement of stock/samples placed in retailer location to measure a sell-through rate;
2) We can assess an alpha value here as they relate to product demand forecasting;
3) We can discuss beta to assess volatility of VPOR's stock.
What facts have you set straight? Still waiting on a reply on this as well as your p value nonsense. My comments are all based on forward looking events, and as the future has not arrived, time is the determinant on whether I am right or wrong. Those who lost money on VPOR lost due to their own idiocy and those who made money did due to skills. This has nothing to do with making money on the back of innocent and decent people.
If you bought too high on a speculative OTC play, even praying out of your losses won't help and one certainly shouldn't go "long" without seeing solid developments. Only a fool is "long" a sub-penny OTC stock prematurely unless there is a massive reason that compels otherwise. The worst thing one can do is to bait investors to go long a play that still has to show the market that it's done what it said it'd do. This means that auditors need to affix their signatures to the # of VPOR. Until we see this, it is STUPID to sit here and say, "Oh, love Jesus and I'm long VPOR despite this ugly down trend chart" and even more stupid is to prematurely judge those who are taking a new look at VPOR.
EBITA FOR SURE can be achieved here on $ECIG for 2014 due to the warrants because adjustments to them will create a scenario to put ECIG cash flow positive BUT this is really a "book" adjustment. This is what we call a play on book numbers...
Why would you assign a p value to VPOR and where are you applying the p value? And if you think a p value is applicable to assess VPOR as investment grade which you already have, which values of alpha and beta are you assigning to prove my premise "wrong" and what alternative are you proposing to support your stated $8 million as a more reasonable forecast not filled with "falsehood" by flippers? Hmmmm?
Did you run some sort of time value of money analysis? Since you talk p values, I will say NO.
I understand, lowman. It is not fair to do a cash flow test at this stage of the game for reasons I had stated in my reply to you. When we're dealing with a LBO with warrants and derivatives embedded like they had been on $ECIG, I have to "unconsider" some bigger components of the statement of cash flow because they consider warrants/derivative accounting for NOW.
My second point is about what could appear as one time charges that are also accounted in cash flow (i.e. write down of obsolescent inventory, impairment to goodwill for one SBU, penalty for cancellation of certain agreements). These non-cash components all make the "books" more unstable than not hence it is best not to perform tests with existing numbers at this time and I trust you understand my reasoning.
Cash on hand is important but its source matters abundantly. If it came from capital raise which appears to be the case so far, I also have to set it aside for now as well. For now, $ECIG is cash flow neutral. I want to see more incoming cash from liquidation of inventory and A/R on a net/net basis and that is the bottom line. If ECIG could not show me this, we're gonna see asset write downs which all must make a note to the self.
4th quarter revenues will be a serious determining point for $ECIG.
Thank you for understanding why I asked that question. I noticed that in one store, FIN is placed above Blu while in another store, it's below Blu. I'm wondering if these are near eye level because product placement is important as a start, but the actual shelf space would give us a better glimpse into how retailers might be feeling about the commercial capability of FIN. In one store, it looks like there might be a promotion for FIN (note the price promotion).
jwez, thanks for this update. Could you tell me where--shelf height wise--FIN were located at these store locations?
24 million shares "parted" between 9 to 14c yesterday and those who bought 14c will gladly part with shares at 20c. Parting is a phenomenon of profits or mitigation of additional losses, in this case, it's all about profits. You're talking about levels--where does one part. You may not part with shares at 20c but the market has proven this/last week that plenty were indeed very willing to part for profits and part at even 11c or 14c. This stock is still under technical traders' hands where a great majority look for 50% gains with a view to keep trading the stock until some uncertainties have been cleared up--this is the reality.
I do not over simplify anything so your criticism is unwarranted. This is not HUB's money purchasing ECIG shares. Over $2 million traded yesterday alone. You fail to understand a very basic point that If there were an acquirer in the picture, it would be now to initiate open purchase of shares. And an acquirer certainly can initiate block trades using an investment banker and within a matter of 10 days, can acquire 51% of the O/S as a start to obtain majority control. And yes, the acquirer would be required to file a Form 13D but that is due within 10 days. It can then go to all shareholders via proxy. It was only "food for thought" so there is no need to be passing out comments like yours.
Why don't you un-simplify and give us a complex version of how you envision the $ECIG story unfolding?
I think my assumptions are conservative as well but I like to use figures from VPOR's financials and assess whether a 27% Q to Q growth is realistic. I think it is. A P/E of 20 is fair.
What is impressive about VPOR is the fact that they've gone from slightly below $1 million in revenues to potentially achieve $5 million for the year. This is remarkable by any measure for an OTC stock. Kudos to management, for sure.
It's a website/blog. Some are certified analysts, some are clueless, joeschmoe pumpers so it's a judgment call on whether you agree with what's been written. The author that did the write up for $ECIG made a fairly good analysis except the part about lenders converting to equity to force a buyout. That part was a bit "rah rah" for my taste.
If $ECIG's quarterly revenues were expected to be in the $50MM range for 2015, we're looking at $200MM for 2015. If I were a big tobacco company looking to acquire $ECIG, I'd buy up close to 90MM shares in the open market now and make a tender offer to the insiders for the rest.
If I bought up the O/S from retail at 20c, that'd cost me $18 million in cash. Insiders would need at least $9,09 per share which would come out to ~$282 million. I'd offer a one part cash/one part stock deal to insiders at $9,09 per share. This would value the transaction at $300MM which is only 1.5x revenues. $ECIG could get 3x revenue if acquired but if I'm a big tobacco company, I'm going to acquire it for $300MM. That opportunity is here.
Something to think about.
I look at what $VPOR can achieve on the revenue side next year, compare it to where it trades today and apply a fairly big O/S scenario to come up with a potential valuation. Note the word "potential" though because it is not a guaranteed valuation as at the moment, the company is not yet profitable hence it is not proper to put together a valuation and try to pass it off as the real thing. What we can put together is some valuation assumptions based on quarterly revenue performance of 2014.
Realistically, $VPOR can achieve $12 million in revenues with a net profit of 10% due to high margins. The GSA, IMHO, is skewed at the moment and does not reflect the true operating cost structure of the company. I'd like to get additional guidance/explanation from management concerning what is in the GSA so we can assess whether the majority of components should be considered "one time charge" types or fixed costs germane to VPOR's core operations. This is key. For now, I think a 10% net/net is achievable.
Revenue/net profit assumption: $12 million top and 10% bottom
O/S assumption: 1 billion shares
P/E: 20
This gives $1.2 million / 1 billion shares = 0,0012 EPS
0,0012 EPS x 20 PE = 2.4 c per share
If VPOR achieved the above top/bottom revenue objectives and O/S were 1 billion shares, 2.4c is where VPOR is expected to trade. I do not think this is unrealistic at all.
LOL. You are 100% right. $VPOR is still an OTC QB stock, a fully reporting issuer hence one cannot call it a "Pink" -- one can call it "stinky" if they wanted to but it certainly is not a Pinky. To call it a penny stock is correct. To call it a POS is purely objective, but calling it a "pink" makes one sound like a moron.
Good point, BC.
It's called a rumor. Personally, don't care about my credibility--not here for that.
I think we agree 100% and your assessment is superior. When I read the Seeking Alpha write up, I agreed with only one point--ECIG is cheap at 10c based on what we can review in terms of financials and the anticipated revenues for 2014.
These lenders--the senior secured and senior convertible--provided the loans with the expectation to be paid back according to terms. You can judge this by the way the terms read. They are not interested in converting to equity, it makes no sense. The senior secured lender has absolutely no incentive to convert to equity because if the O/S blew up to 500 million shares, their conversion price is still 80c.
A more critical observation has to be made here and that is in re of the senior convertible lenders. This group converting would create a change of control. The S/Alpha author opined that a group of lenders might do this to force management's arm to sell the company but that is just fantasy. In reality, this group converting is a very poor strategy because its position is subordinated. You don't convert to a boatload of shares and tell management to sell itself in this case because there is a senior secured group who can force ECIG into BK and sell all of its assets to get their money back and leave nothing for equity. The secured group is not going to agree to convert because it'd get less shares than an unsecured group--makes no sense, right?
These groups want their money back--they borrowed money, too as you have astutely pointed out. We're not talking 1 million $$ here. We're talking 10's of millions...
The only one that was intended to convert converted, and that was a planned dilution to adjust warrants.
lowman, it is extremely important for ECIG or any company to be cash flow positive. To be revenue generating is not enough--the Company has to be cash flow positive and this has to be achieved from its core operations. Obviously, the company has to generate enough revenues to fund all of its operating activities and hopefully generate levered cash--this is the expectation here. This is point one.
A more important point is that positive cash flow (or the amount) is the measure that will determine whether the Goodwill in the balance sheet will remain or not--did ECIG really pay a fair price for the acquisitions or are these Goodwill fluff?......
If ECIG is not able to generate the expected cash flow, the charge goes against Goodwill in the form of impairment charges to the income statement hence we're looking at asset write downs at the end.
For the quarter ended, ECIG finished with more cash than it started with HOWEVER we really can't make a fair assessment of its cash flow because of all the derivative accounting that took place-- these are really non-cash adjustments that must nonetheless be included. We must look at future quarterlies in order to assess this better.
My pleasure, love and all on $VPOR. I wanted to drop in quickly before turning in for bed to give a word of encouragement to the long $VPOR holders here. We closed down a bit over 5% on trading but still holding support. Nervous nellies might think this is shit that the stock didn't close green shortly after they bought in, but we purposely let it close this way to clean out short term, clueless players that could hurt the up movement on this stock going forward. Regardless, I consider this great session performance because I look at things from a totally different angle, be it what I see on L2 or on filings. This L2 is nice with converted lenders aligned with retail on offer. This stock is actually under buyers' control than sellers' and this is a point which I'd like to convey to you all for the coming week! Just because you see what are commonly known as diluting MMs on offers doesn't mean that they are diluting. You really need to have trained eyes to see when conversion is going through vs when the actual selling is taking place post conversion. This is all very visible on L2.
We are going to see $VPOR churn this level ahead of news. And yes, this is a profitable channel with 9-11 ticks from bottom to top, so if you think you can make a good trade in the interim, by all means-- DO IT but make sure you come to support the stock by providing bid support!
This company, based on my assessment, achieved some serious milestones during the 4th quarter. They should to be proud of it and ought to give a corporate update which I believe is coming soon. Any company that starts with $980K in revenues at 1Q to finish the year with potentially $5 million in revenues has MY RESPECT.
So $VPOR peeps...hang in there. $$ is coming here.
Have a great weekend!
Best,
BB
very nice session on $ECIG. Continuation for Monday.
Have a great weekend all,
BB
ROFL, WEEEEEE on $ECIG feels therapeutic. I'm gonna be posting WEEEEE on every dang board going forward and we'll make big $$$.
WEEEEEEEEEE. LOLOLOLOLOL. Someone stop me.
But if ECIG's quarterly proforma is good for $50MM, that would value the firm at $800MM at least with its international presence so does it make sense to sell to anyone for $500MM? I will disagree.
$ECIG paid $200MM in goodwill for its acquisitions and wrote down only $8 million on impairment charges and $5MM in obsolescent inventory. I think those were good investments which time will tell.
I personally would not like to see ECIG sell itself for $500MM, makes no sense. There are hard and soft value here that all must assess.
Everything good here on $ECIG.
It's coming! We could get a full body green bar close here tonight on $ECIG.
Do I hear a WEEEEEEE? LOL
ya gals/guys, I'm not gonna sit here and say the stock is going to $1 when it's hasn't broken 20c. The big task for today was to break .139 and to close at or above that. If it didn't, it's not the end of the world either. No need to mislead anyone, the chart speaks for itself as well as the fundamental DD but things don't happen over night. We certainly do not want newbies buying in higher and losing patience to sell for a loss. We are not here for that. We want EVERYONE to win big on $ECIG and that is why we are contributing our time here on this board!
If you're not sure what you see on L2 or the trading side, post a comment and one of us will guide you on what we see. For now, this is strong trading we're seeing on $ECIG.
we need to break through 1611 first then $ECIG will move fast beyond 20c as it will move 1c at a time. If paired with news next week or so, we could go fast to 50c. If no news, this could retrace back a bit as they always do to impatient traders.
Take one session at a time.
They chasing next week.But stock up 50% so it is ok to take profit. But they better be sure they can buy back.
Lots of retail at 14c here
coming. as is 1611!
$ECIG kicking ass and taking down names.