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BLLZ is a scam! No PRs in 16 months - RIDICULOUS! Time for the SEC to halt trading and lead the shareholder lawsuit.
At some point whoever is selling it down runs out of ammo. They have spent a bunch just a matter of when the well runs dry. Could be they are out now.
Thanks for the information. I believe that bright days are ahead and that shorting will not take NAVB below the recent 2.42 low. Revenue from Lymphoseek in the coming three quarters, all of the European catalysts, and the rest of the pipline are far bigger than the shorts. I agree that the shorts enjoy throwing their weight around almost daily, but my impression is that support is building in this 2.50-2.83 range.
Tick tock.
Yes - imo, the company has more good news ahead than the shorts have additional shares for shorting NAVB down at will.
This rebound is not too surprising to me, though seeing the 2.40s was unpleasant.
Judging by how little volume it has taken to move the pps up .15 today, I'm starting to think we may see 3,000,000 newly shorted shares bringing the total to 23,000,000+. And another 3,000,000 in mid-April may be the reality.
I wonder who is buying today that DIDN'T buy yesterday.
Yes - and I fully expect sentinel node designation to happen. It's only a matter of time.
GLTA.
Speaking of shorts, SMART shorts are COVERING NOW as STUPID SHORTS drive the NAVB pps LOWER TEMPORARILY.
The way I see it, if the pps jumps back to 3.25 on the European partnership, the shorts will kick themselves for not covering the shares THEY SHORTED WHEN NAVB was SOLIDLY IN THE 3.00s.
Dendreon has a $90,000 product that had low sales as we all know. $300 for Lymphoseek is chump change...and everyone should know it if they don't already.
Ridiculous indeed. Assuming that Lymphoseek sales are 75% as solid as the highest revenue estimates, I do not see how the shorts will spread fear about the company at that point...unless of course, they create "the cure" for cancer and make Lymphoseek (and all other cancer treatments) completely unnecessary. Ha! Their supply of shares to short seemed endless yet again today, even with orders of 30,000+ shares on the BID...That can't last either...
As it is, I may tap into my home equity to add another 20,000 shares of NAVB if the shorts will be so kind to continue the artificial decline in price.
11,509,200 shares was the NAVB short interest as of 3/15/12. We could very well see a short interest of 23,000,000 shares this coming Tuesday - DOUBLING THE SHORT INTEREST from only one year ago.
I've often wondered when I purchase a block of NAVB if I am buying into the shorting.
Let's also not forget recent insider buys...The shorts seem to ignore all bullish indicators by being the only bear in the room. Even bears can be woefully outnumbered sometimes.
Wouldn't a surprise RIGS development be most welcome right about now?
The last 24 short interest updates...
2/28/2013 20,376,552
2/15/2013 19,306,655
1/31/2013 18,176,460
1/15/2013 17,016,258
12/31/2012 16,606,034 DECREASE
12/14/2012 17,498,205
11/30/2012 17,074,866
11/15/2012 16,669,779
10/31/2012 16,173,420
10/15/2012 15,718,213
9/28/2012 15,662,698 DECREASE
9/14/2012 16,294,947
8/31/2012 15,761,601
8/15/2012 13,923,151 DECREASE
7/31/2012 16,828,629
7/13/2012 16,348,504
6/29/2012 15,261,657
6/15/2012 14,554,942
5/31/2012 13,685,564
5/15/2012 13,012,103
4/30/2012 12,430,240
4/13/2012 12,270,729
3/30/2012 11,556,587
3/15/2012 11,509,200
You are correct that NAVB did bottom out at 2.14 on November 16th, 2012 but this was 2 months after the CRL. This is significant because I believe the 2.14 bottom in retrospect was the shorts making an attempt to drive NAVB under 2.00 again in 2012. This failed if I am correct.
The current downward trend (seemingly motivated by the shorts FEAR of NAVB pps potential ANY DAY NOW) will not last long imo, especially when I consider that NAVB did reach 2.83 on the day of our solid Lymphoseek success PR from this past week. Shorts refuse to lose...for now. Note that on 11/15/12, there was over 2,000,000 shares of volume on no news. Typical short ploy that we continue to see...
And fwiw, the shorts have seemingly seldom covered, as only 3 times out of the past 24 short interest report updates (since 3/15/12) has the short interest shown a decline. I don't know what it all means for sure, but my bet is on an amazing rebound SOONER or LATER - either way, my bet is that NAVB will roar back.
...........................HIGH.LOW......VOLUME
Nov 23, 2012 2.44 2.69 2.41 2.54 507,000
Nov 21, 2012 2.33 2.49 2.33 2.44 830,300
Nov 20, 2012 2.25 2.34 2.21 2.33 506,500
Nov 19, 2012 2.21 2.25 2.15 2.25 680,900
Nov 16, 2012 2.23 2.30 2.14 2.19 692,000
Nov 15, 2012 2.43 2.49 2.16 2.23 2,048,700
Nov 14, 2012 2.55 2.63 2.40 2.42 942,500
Nov 13, 2012 2.51 2.62 2.51 2.62 489,700
GLTA.
NAVB got Lymphoseek approval on 3/13. The next short interest report will only include new short interest information up through 3/15. Since Monday 3/18, the volume has been 12,475,100 shares. This represents a ton of down volume for no good reason. Like the Oldtimers say, even the CRL didn't drive NAVB below 2.60. I have posted the trade information from 3/15 through 3/22.
...........................HIGH.LOW.VOLUME............CLOSE
Mar 22, 2013 2.60 2.66 2.55 1,099,900 2.55
Mar 21, 2013 2.73 2.83 2.60 2,068,200 2.60
Mar 20, 2013 2.80 2.80 2.69 1,536,700 2.69
Mar 19, 2013 2.82 3.04 2.76 4,147,100 2.76
Mar 18, 2013 2.66 2.84 2.61 3,623,200 2.78
Mar 15, 2013 2.87 3.00 2.67 6,832,600 2.67
Mar 14, 2013 3.15 3.15 2.90 4,084,900 2.91
Mar 13, 2013 3.37 3.59 3.00 10,587,000 3.16
It certainly looks as if NAVB is oversold (like some are saying elsewhere) for a company that just got an FDA approval on an affordable cancer detection product destined to sell all over the world within 2 years. The new short interest up through 3/15 will be at least 1,500,000 new shares, maybe 2,500,000. And when the short interest report comes out for 3/15 through 3/30, I expect even more newly shorted shares as the selling pressure just this past week has been utterly ridiculous. While I don't believe it is all shorting, I do believe that shorting is the lion's share of why the pps is in the 2.50s for now. I bet that some traders bought above 3.00 expecting 6.00+ based on all the analyst targets of as high as 9.00. Many of those new buyers who know little of the company simply have simply given up and sold since 3/13. I do not expect trader selling to be an issue from here on out. I have said before that the short interest is simply too big for the shorts to just sit back and allow the pps to run away, though I also never expected to see the 2.50s within 7 trading days of FDA Lymphoseek approval.
I continue to expect the unexpected with NAVB. Will there be an NAVB buyout announcement on 3/25 for 8.50 per share or will the shorts put 800,000 shares on the ask at 2.54? Time does not seem to be on their side in any event.
I'm all in now. 34,150 shares (22,600 of which are in my Roth IRA).
I believe in the future of this company - and I believe in the short term there is NO BAD NEWS IMMINENT that the shorts should be able to attack further with. Instead, they have fired away with seemingly endless shares to create the appearance that NAVB is weak, failing, and generally troubled WHEN EVERY COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMPANY IS NOTHING BUT STELLAR IN EVERY WAY, NOT TO MENTION CREDIBLE!
The reality however, is that Lymphoseek approval in the US is but the first of MANY additional catalysts coming within 3 months (and certainly 12 months). One posted called NAVB dead money for a while. I say, BS! This money will likely come alive at any moment...like the run to 3.03 recently.
Hang on! It's going to be a fun ride when it starts again.
A quote about NAVB that I saw elsewhere today:
I'd love to see a $5 offer come to Navidea and Navidea reject it. I've seen this happen in the past and with this many shorts, the SP could very well overshoot the offer price and stay there.
Thanks insideoutsideupside.
That's exactly what the shorts want and EXACTLY why I urge folks not to be all in above 3.00. We have a very determined short that has no alternative than to continuously short this stock. Given today's Phase III results for Lymphoseek, I don't believe there is ANYTHING about this company that the shorts know that we do not. They made a bad choice shorting it when the company only had Lymposeek under development. As things stand now, they are just postponing their own funeral.
My strategy has always been to buy into the shorting and sell on rebounds. Speaking of rebounds, I expect one tomorrow or Monday at the latest.
GLTA.
Let's see if we get the typical end of day run as 3:00 and 4:00 approach. It is like clockwork 9 days out of 10.
ME! I added 3,000 shares at 2.66 a while back. Unbelievable guts to short NAVB on a day when a PR shows just how effective and promising Lymphoseek is. I'm sure the product won't sell. LOL.
This is a great read - and should be another friendly reminder to the shorts that NAVB is a growing, successful, dynamic, innovative, company...and also not one that should be shorted. LOL.
One interesting thing I have been pondering with NAVB at present is that the options that were recently issued to insiders are priced at 3.08. Since we had almost no run at all on apprroval except a brief visit to 3.59, I have to believe that our solid management team will now be working harder than ever to get the pps well above 4.00, 5.00, and 6.00, etc. DDbuyer is spot on when he says this management team consistently delivers and all things being equal, now that NAVB is under 3.00, the management team has all the motivation in the world to burn the shorts, not just for investors sake, BUT FOR THEMSELVES.
And with 4 products in their aresenal, plus royalties from the device sale, this game is jusssssssssst starting with the SHORTS creating their own DISADVANTAGE.
GLTA.
The European Partnership is not being discussed on any boards at present, but the company stated that it would be announced either shortly before or after FDA approval...one of our next expected catalysts.
What a crazy day today was. Does anyone know when the next short report comes out? A short interest of 22,000,000 would not be too surprising.
I count 3 insider buys and the shorts appear to be knocking away at the pps to drive NAVB below the insider purchase price of 2.81. Makes perfect sense to me! Maybe NAVB shorts are the same morons I see driving on the left side of the road - they're certainly on the wrong side of this trade...but to MY BENEFIT.
Thanks again for another $723 today shorts.
Do insider buys count as a kitchen sink being thrown back? :)
The market saw through Duncan's obviously distorted and fraudlent smear of the company, yet, the market is temporarily ignoring the milestone of Lymphoseek approval by the FDA. More unexpected that I was expecting, though not this particular scenario of a 2.67 close two days after approval. Like I have said before, I never expected the heavy shorting to accompany an early approval. I was outspoken in my belief that early approval was unlikely - I was incorrect. The FDA waited until the last day to issue the CRL and delayed the initial NDA by 90 days - all of which battered the share price. The biggest milestone in years for this company has now been treated like a nonevent...for now. What's next? Darned if I know, except that I am a buyer in the 2.67 and lower range if the sellers and shorts will be so kind.
Did you read my post #3383? I think that the shorts are attempting to drive NAVB down as far as they can to minimize the upside the there is another PR or milestone (like the European Partnership that is coming soon).
DDbuyer has hinted that the kitchen sinks will be flying in the shorts direction soon...and I am inclined to agree, though I also believe we are heading lower Monday and Tuesday - especially since Friday was the weakest close for NAVB I can remember in recent memory. It didn't hold 2.70...or jump up to 2.79 like it has closed strong than the low of the day so many times over the past 2 years.
So much for an end of the day rally. We got one on approval day from 3.00 to 3.18. Yesterday we held 2.90. Today weak hands threw money away and the shorts railed into us. Thank you DDbuyer for contacting Platinum...no real surprise there that they are not selling. Is another institution? Unlikely imo, since approval only reduces the risk here by almost 100%. The risk is minimal and the reward will soon include Lymphoseek sales, further pipeline development, European approval of Lymhoseek, and European partnership to market it. Yeah...Shorting NAVB just seems like the wrong choice at the moment...LOL.
This too shall pass.
I have posted many times that NAVB often gets stronger from 3PM until the close. I expect this today and think 2.82 could be the close. I don't know if the shorts have a plan where they short it down all day and then cover at the end of the day to make profits on their highest priced short shares, but this seems like a possibility.
The selling was so strong at around the open that my BUY order for 3,000 ALL OR NONE @ 2.83 actually filled at 2.79 at 09:33:57AM! Surprisingly, my SELL of the same 3000 shares only 19 minutes later filled at 2.8652 at 09:52:28AM,though I was only asking 2.86. I made $212 on the trade - not bad for less than 20 minutes of work.
The rest of my money comes available for trading again on Monday and Tuesday (I hate the 3 day rule) but I'll be ready the shorts tactics and I believe I have figured out what the continued short attacking is about:
They are limiting the positive impact of the next milestone/catalyst on the NAVB pps in advance by shorting NAVB down as much as they can. To be extreme, if they could short it down to 1.50, the next PR might only take it back to 2.00 or 2.25.
I believe this will backfire and cost them millions of dollars eventually on a short position of 20 million shares, but I'd also like to see the Oldtimers stop loaning shares to short. Haven't they shot themselves enough in the foot? Trading NAVB has proven much better than holding long thus far - eh, DD?
I said not too long ago, "Expect the unexpected with NAVB in the coming weeks." Well, who the heck expected EARLY APPROVAL with MASSIVE SHORTING leading to a sustained price BELOW 3.00? Not me!
DDbuyer has an interesting post up that is quite similar to something I posted a "short" while back (pardon the pun) in light of today's trading.
The shorts are forcing NAVB down instead of allowing it to climb AND THEN short it. If they knew or believed that NAVB was truly undervalued and destined to fail, they would not need to short it to below 3.00. The best rationale I can see for the intense shorting at present is the following scenario: Upon announcement of the European partnership (which is supposed to happen soon now that Lymphoseek has FDA approval) the shorts are hoping that the launch price on the new partnership news is in the 2.50 range (or wherever the heck they can short it down to).
The news of the partnership then (or whatever the next catalyst is) might then only take the pps back to the 3.00 range. What the shorts seem to forget is that at least half a dozen other catalysts that are also coming soon: Head and neck data, NAVB4694 news, RIGS news, etc...Do they have an endless supply of shares to short? It seems so at times.
In my analysis, this forced repression of the price is like trying to keep a child a child forever. All children grow up, at least physically and NAVB just matured considerably by getting the Lymphoseek growing pains behind it. The distortion that hurt Lymphoseek in the past is now really part of history and no part of the future.
As a trader with more than 90% of his money unavailable today due to trading so many shares yesterday, I am grinning EAR TO EAR as I watch the pps decline. I do not have a margin account, so I could not buy shares today. As much as I hate this shorting for NAVB longs who sold little or nothing above 3.00, I hope the 2.70s and 2.80s are coming because a sustained run to 3.00 and 4.00 is coming this year, making NAVB gains inevitable. Even if NAVB ONLY had Lymphoseek, the short strategy would seem risky. As it is, their strategy seems downright suicidal and I say to them, "BRING IT ON."
See you at the open.
Today I only made $792 on selling 21,000 shares that I also purchased today. I sell for a few pennies higher...This is why 600,000 shares sounds like a lot, but in reality, when you buy and sell the same 3,000 share block over and over, the total shares traded add up fast.
Of the stocks you listed, GALE is the only one I have heard of and I recall the secondary offering that knocked them down from 2.00+ to 1.50. I have seen them back in the 2.00 range recently and considered buying them more than once prior to and since the secondary, but never did - yes, I regret such. They appear to be leading their field of cancer treatment and could be similar to NAVB in trading potential someday imo.
Congratulations on going all in. When the head and neck results for Lymphoseek are announced, the expanded label might be the catalyst we were all looking for today. 3.00 seems to have tremendous strength and the shorts were unable to keep it there for too long as we had an amazing rebound to 3.18 before falling back to 3.15.
Whether someone is an investor or a trader, NAVB will work out nicely for them. I have researched the company thoroughly and am pleased to report total gains in trading NAVB at just over $38,000 since my first buy in December 2009 (1000 shares at 1.25).
Believe it or not, I have traded over 600,000 shares of NAVB since 2009. The trick to making so much money was being all in October of 2010 (with 39,600 shares at the time) when the stock got hammered down to the 1.56 area and CNBC brought it up to 2.32 the next morning. I made a little more than $5,000 that day. I always sold into any PR that spiked the price before and after this CNBC date (knowing that the likely approval down the road made any buy a safe buy). I often sell 2,000 or 3,000 shares at a time for a .04-.08 gain and then repurchase them on a pullback. It has been the easiest money of my trading life.
I am NOWHERE near done with NAVB yet and I have often thought recently that it is the best stock I have ever seen or imagined for frequent, though relatively small gains. Huge surges in price have happened, but they have been few and far between.
Sleep like a baby everyone. The NAVB opportunity is just beginning all over again. If we were trading at 5.00-8.50, I'd be looking for a new pet stock to trade daily. NAVB is still the best pick and it is a GIFT at 3.00 or 3.18. The inevitable short covering to come will be our ace in the hole.
Cheers.
Uri and CNBC could be most helpful anytime now in getting positive exposure for NAVB with the Lymphoseek approval. I know some are very disappointed that we didn't break through 4.00, 5.00, 6.00, and 7.00+ today (as am I), BUT I see this as an opportunity SINCE the shorts obviously added much more to their losing bet and others sold who don't understand the company and its pipeline. I will be adding and trading away for weeks (or months) to come. This is very exciting when one stops and thinks about it.
Did you read my post #3311?
NAVB LOVES to move up toward the close more often than not. Very rarely does a down day get worse with NAVB between 3:00 and 4:00.
I bought and sold 21,000 NAVB shares today...and took the gains. The shorts will likely be back at it tomorrow and I thank them in advance for the gains.
Take the gain NOW!
I think it is possible that the European partnership may be announced at 4:00 today. That could make things very interesting, very soon.
FWIW, I also expect NAVB to trend up as 3:00 approaches as NAVB often trades strongest in the last 30-60 minutes of the day.
GLTA.
Lymphoseek approved and the shorts pile on. What will they do when the European approval and European partnership is announced?
This stock is a sure winner now, though it may take time to reach 4.00 and then 5.00+. Analysts will soon cover NAVB more, and the price should get away from the shorts as sales and profits for Lymphoseek here and in the EU are coming in.
While the manipulation since 11:15AM certainly appears CRIMINAL and an INVESTIGATION as to why the stock WAS NOT HALTED should be launched, I will buy at this bargain price.
Cheers.
Thanks for the 3 replies. I believe that upon approval, if the pps reaches 8.00 or 9.00, there will definitely be NEW shorting at the new high prices, but this will not help the old shorts much, whose average short price has to be somewhere within the $3-$4 range. The old shorts will have a hell of time trying to short the pps from $7 or $8 back to where we are now with Lymphoseek approved. The pipeline is simply too strong to keep shorting this stock forever. There are companies with only one potential product that would certainly make a smarter choice to short. CLSN would have been a brilliant short at 8.00 BUT they only have (or had) one device. They reached 8.00+ WITHOUT approval. To me, CLSN was a good lesson in selling at least some of a position on the way up before a PDUFA decision date, as it now looks like CLSN may be dead forever.
The most recent 2,000,000+ shares from the past 30 days of shorting are all losing money. All of the shorting in November that took NAVB down to 2.14 is losing even more money. I'm optimistic that the shorts will regret ever hearing of the symbol NAVB.
Tick tock.
Yes, it certainly is more buying than one session to cover a 20,000,000 share short position in NAVB - and I wonder why some posters have said in the past that the shorts will not lose no matter how high the pps goes (they are certainly losing more and more money on paper as the pps stays in the 3.40s).
I say that short covering alone could push the NAVB share price WELL ABOVE the highest analyst estimate in the short term once Lymphoseek is approved. If NAVB opens at 6.00 the day after approval, I believe that frantic short covering could make the stock trade as high as 11.00 or even 12.00 if sellers do not all sell out immediately between 6.00 and 7.00.
The short interest is simply too high NOT TO DRIVE THE NAVB PPS QUITE HIGH. And we sure did look strong today!
GLTA.
Nice post...We're off to the races.