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Correction...the 12/16/09 10:00 hearing has the transcripts posted to the www.lehmancreditors.com website.
Coach T
There was a settlement between AFLAC, LBHI, BNY in the court transcripts from the 2:00 hearing last week.
Wouldn't you know the settlement was redacted...UNDISCLOSED.
Now why do you think that AFLAC would want to keep that settlement a secret after they spent the last 9 months fighting it the case in court?
I know what I think. However, it sure gets frustrating with all the secrets.
Coach T
I still have over 2.8M shares of Preferreds and Trusts.
I think that puts my mouth and my money in the same place...
Coach T
It is possible...although I believe there are MM that have large orders to accumulate the Trusts and Preferreds.
I think that is why with the volume slowing the MM are dropping bids knowing that the "last trade" also makes portfolio value adjustments.
As we all know, a 35% or more spread between bid and asked makes a large difference in the overall value trade to trade.
I think they are using the cross-currents of year end tax loss selling and profit taking to drop the bids to levels that no one gets fills at for large orders, and then mysteriously a large trade goes off at an in between price that shows as a sell.
Every time I try and get filled for more than 10K shares I have to play the asked or it takes longer than I care to wait.
We have alot of news coming in the next 60 days. B of A, JPM, the Examiner;s report, many of the adverary proceedings, etc.
I still believe in the perfect storm. A & M is not marking up many assets that other respective institutions are, IMO. Mr. Marsal has said that in the last transcript updating the creditoprs committee. I think that would make the value worth even more to a potential reorg.
Coach T
On the contrary...I find it think it shows a lot of positives.
If it passes that Unsecured Creditors Committee I think it will illustrate that the LBHI itself is beginning to gain momnetum that we all have seen for a while now.
Coach T
It is not balance sheet related IMO.
They are trying to clear LB Bankhaus so it can position better itself in its own BK.
Also, it tells me that LBHI thinks buying this debt type for .40 on the dollar is a good investment. This is the ultimate tail wagging the dog. A company in BK wanting to buy its own debt back with cash that unsecured creditors have a right to.
It will be interesting to see if the Unsecured Creditors Committee backs supports this motion.
Nevertheless...a positive sign IMO.
Coach T
Now here is a classic...LBHI has filed a motion for the corut to approve LBHI buying back its own debt obligations from Lehman Brothers Bankhaus who is also in BK!
LBHI docket # 6303...
LBHI buys LB Bankhaus assets...$1.389B for market value of $2.148B and Principal amount of $3.458B.
Only in this BK will you see a company motion to buyback its own debt to further a proceeding.
Coach T
It appears that Silver Point Capital has been buying over $1B in claims over the last day or two...
Anyone know what the priority is for claims vs. unsecured bonds?
I would think they would be about equal.
Anyone?
Coach T
Lehman is way ahead of WAMU on this one.
We have had the Examiner on the case for almost a year now.
He is investigating everything from the Fed, NY Fed, SEC, Citi, B of A, JPM, LBI, etc. All the major players that intereacted with Lehman and could have had a hand in taking it down.
His report is due on or before Feb 1, 2010, if am not mistaken.
Coach T
This "Investments in Affliates" has been marked down twice now. $63B in the 12/31/08 balance sheet (from 09/14/08) and now another $26B or so on the 06/30/09.
That is the largest of anything adjusted that I saw without that adjustment the balance sheet would be much closer in A/L.
I am trying to get more information from A & M on it. Will pass along once I get it.
Coach T
Correction... not all the Lehman liquidity but large portions in different markets.
Coach T
This market is getting more liquid by the month!
Additional proof that the market that took all the Lehman liquidity when it was going down is getting better rapidly!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMZqRb_dQ25M
By Pierre Paulden and Kristen Haunss
Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The three largest U.S. banks are preparing for a comeback in the market for collateralized debt obligations backed by high-yield, high-risk loans, two years after issuance tumbled when credit markets seized up.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. are approaching managers of leveraged loans to offer terms for new collateralized loan obligations following a record rally this year in the debt, according to people familiar with the discussions who declined to be identified because the talks are private. The highest-rated portions of CLOs have climbed to 89 cents on the dollar from a record low of 69 cents in April, according to Morgan Stanley data.
The $440 billion market for CLOs, which pool loans and slice them into securities of varying risk, largely disappeared at the end of 2007 as losses on subprime mortgages led investors to flee bundled debt. While new sales would signal Wall Street’s return to investments that contributed to $1.7 trillion of writedowns and credit losses worldwide, they may help companies refinance $1.5 trillion of high-yield loans and bonds maturing by the end of 2014.
“Market conditions have improved dramatically over the course of this year, which we see carrying on into 2010,” said Philippe Roger, JPMorgan’s global head of structured credit trading. “We are actively discussing the market environment with our clients, and think that they are going to be increasingly attracted both to the leveraged-loan asset class and securitization technology and applications related to the high-yield space.”
Less Volatile
Roger, who is based in London, declined to comment on specific dialogue the firm has had in creating CLOs.
Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s biggest bank, is also considering creating CLOs with loan managers, said the people, all of whom had direct talks with the banks. Spokeswomen for Citigroup of New York, Deutsche Bank and Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America declined to comment.
JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup are the three largest U.S. banks as ranked by assets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Leveraged loans have returned a record 49.3 percent this year after losing an unprecedented 28.2 percent in 2008 following the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., according to the Standard & Poor’s/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index. Leveraged loans are rated below BBB- by S&P and less than Baa3 at Moody’s Investors Service.
New issues of CLOs may reach $3 billion to $6 billion next year, Wells Fargo Securities LLC senior analyst Dave Preston in Charlotte, North Carolina, wrote in a report yesterday.
Wells Fargo CLO
Wells Fargo & Co. arranged a $275 million CLO that priced today with Guggenheim Partners LLC as the lead investor.
The $148.5 million top-rated portion of the deal will pay interest at 3.75 percentage points, said Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Santa Monica, California-based Guggenheim.
New Star Financial Inc., the Boston-based commercial finance company, originated and will service the loans for the CLO, Minerd said.
Elise Wilkinson, a Wells Fargo spokeswoman, declined to comment.
For banks to be able to create new CLOs, leveraged-loan prices need to be less volatile and financing costs for the top- rated portions must be lower, said David Yan, a Credit Suisse Group AG analyst in New York, who predicts issuance may return in the first quarter of 2010.
CLO Sales Swelled
CLO sales swelled to about $100 billion in both 2006 and 2007, from $32 billion in 2004, according to data from Credit Suisse. Investors bought the securities because they had higher returns than similarly rated debt, boosting demand for the leveraged loans packaged inside them.
The increase enabled CLOs to finance almost two-thirds of the loans that backed the record $616 billion of leveraged buyouts in the first half of 2007, Standard & Poor’s LCD data show.
Demand for loans began to slow in July 2007, when bankers couldn’t find investors for the credit they provided to New York-based KKR & Co.’s 11.1 billion-pound ($18.1 billion) purchase of British drugstore chain Alliance Boots Ltd.
‘Stress Scenarios’
By April 2009, amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the slices of CLOs with BBB ratings plummeted to 6 cents on the dollar, while the safest portions fell to 69 cents, Morgan Stanley data show.
As the U.S. has lent, spent or guaranteed $11.6 trillion to rescue the financial system and pull the economy out of recession, prices on the S&P/LSTA loan index rose to 86.31 cents on the dollar from the record low in December 2008 of 59.2 cents.
Banks need to make “an extraordinary commitment” to help rebuild the economy, President Barack Obama said yesterday, after the government bailed them out of a crisis “largely of their own making.”
Even as bond issuance soared this year as borrowers took advantage of record-low interest rates and investor demand for higher-yielding assets, sales of leveraged loans to high-yield, high-risk companies has declined 45 percent from the same period in 2008.
Junk Bond Sales
Companies have sold $152 billion of junk bonds in the U.S. in 2009 compared with $64 billion for all of 2008, Bloomberg data show. JPMorgan and Bank of America led banks arranging $147.7 billion of leveraged loans this year.
Issuance this quarter has exceeded the prior three quarters, and since November at least a dozen companies, including Ronald Perelman’s Revlon Inc. and Booz Allen Hamilton Inc., have asked lenders to change the terms of debt agreements to allow bond sales, extend loan maturities or pay dividends to private-equity firm owners, Bloomberg data show.
That’s boosting confidence the number of high-yield companies defaulting globally will decline to 3.9 percent by November 2010 from 12.7 percent last month, Moody’s Investors Service said Dec. 7.
The value of CLOs with the BBB portions has climbed to 55 cents on the dollar, Morgan Stanley data shows.
“This solid performance in a majority of CLOs should increase investor confidence, raising the probability that newly issued CLOs will be received favorably by the market,” said Matthew Natcharian, the head of Babson Capital Management LP’s structured credit team that has bought the securities this year. The Springfield, Massachusetts-based firm manages $112.5 billion of assets.
To contact the reporters on this story: Pierre Paulden in New York at ppaulden@bloomberg.net; Kristen Haunss in New York at khaunss@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 15, 2009 16:28 EST
Coach T
A little help from across the pond. Excerpt from the enclosed article...
"The judgment preserves the pool of money available to the general estate, which can’t be used to top up the client money funds, Baker & McKenzie partner Arun Srivastava, the lawyer for Hong Leong Bank, said in a statement today."
“This will result in a higher recovery for unsecured creditors,” Srivastava said.
Lehman Unit Failed to Isolate Vast Sum of Client Cash (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aCSSDKboDl8g
Keep the Faith...
Coach T
Wasn't Goldman Sachs and Warren Buffett looking to buy the NOL's from FNM a couple of months ago and the Treasury wouldn't sign off on it because they did not like the political ramifications?
Just a little more value...
Keep the Faith.
Coach T
Here is a thought...
According to the MOR Lehman has filed the 2008 consolidated taxes. It claimed a loss of $47B. It is currently calculating the effect of the Net Operating Loss carry forward for the last 5 years. Also, there is $350M coming back from an existing tax reserve account.
Now that will be the last laugh! Lehman getting money back from the Government! Anyone know what the refund check will be on getting money back from the Treasury for profits from the last 5 years? How much was paid in taxes over the last 5 years?
Classic...
Coach T
We have not gotten any notice on the Sept 30 balance sheet yet.
I think the next items that are important are the claims estimates and the court decisions that are set to come out before the end of the year.
Coach T
P.S. FNM and FRE are running again today. Let's see if it spills over.
Assets reduced to $272B primarily due to a continued mark down in the "Investment in Affiliates" category -26B. This is the one that got marked down 63B on the 12/31/08 balance sheet. Don't know how much more can be written off in this category it is now negative. Will have to call Ms. Dice at A&M.
On the positive side the liabilities dropped by about 8B.
Still looking thru the report.
Any other accountant types with thoughts?
Coach T
Anyone notice FRE and FNM???
Compare the charts on FRE, FNM and any of the Lehmans...
Here we go...
Not let's get that balance sheet out after the close!
Coach T
I don't know. I thought for sure they would have it out after the close LAST Friday.
If it is not out after the close today...it must be going to be released in this month's MOR due around the 15th.
Either way, we will find out what a "modest increase" is in Mr. Marsal's mind soon.
I am also hoping that the Liabilities side might be reduced also, in addition to the marks being "modestly" increased. Liabilities were reduced in the 12/31/08 balance sheet so keep your fingers crossed!
Coach T
Nice find Dnoto!
I was just about to post that morsel myself...
The news will keep coming out like this IMO. Like peeling back the layers of an onion. Let's get the B/S out after the close!
Also, the Adversary Proceeding for the B of A hearing was supposed to be yesterday. I have not seen anything reported yet. It is only worth about 500M to the estate. It was not postponed with the other motions to todays court dockets at 10:00.
Coach T
NO comment on the tag team thing.
I played telephone tag with Holly again yesterday and she did not leave a date that the A/L was going to be released specifically. Just that they were aware that it was supposed to be out last week and they wanted to make certain the numbers were right.
I had some questions about those 4-6 $100B Merill Lynch claims that were on the claims website last month and now are not there anymore. She did not have any comment about it.
She sounded pretty rushed on her message. I try not to contact her very often. Just imagine the number of calls she get on a daily basis.
Feels like we are reaching a supprot level here. This area also was where we broke out in August.
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
This quote is from page 30-31 of the 11/18/09 transcripts and took place right after Mr. Marsal gave his presentation to the court. It is by Harvey Miller, from Gotchal, Weil and Manges the lead counsel to LBHI.
Do you get the same idea that I do when I read this statment? Mr. Miller was speaking to Judge Peck at the conclusion of Mr. Marsal's update...
MR. MILLER: "As you get closer to the deadline, there
24 seems to be more effort on the part of parties to reach a
25 coalescing point. I would also note, Your Honor, that there
1 are more constituencies that seem to be organizing on -- they
2 don't want to call themselves ad hoc committees, so they have
3 different nomenclature for their organizations, but we are
4 getting different groups organizing who want to meet with Mr.
5 Marsal and his team, and to talk about a plan of reorganization
6 and how claims would be dealt. So I think there's going to be
7 a lot more activity of that as we go forward in the future."
Sounds to me like there are parties interested in LBHI and how profits can be made! Time will tell.
Coach T
Sorry Joyce...
I was buying about 85,000 shares of the Cap Trusts the last few days. 25K LEHKQ, 20K LHHMQ, 40K LEHLQ...
Keep the Faith.
Coach T
As I recall, the UK laws would have made the vehicles that the assets in dispute were under, would have required the assets go to the Trustee/General Partner first to satisfy customers. Then the remaining monies would go to the estate.
US law says that the assets go to the estate and then get disbursed to unsecured creditors prorata. The outcome, if it went in Lehmans favor would have counterparties reconsidering how to structure these types of investment vehicles worldwide.
Coach T
I am pretty sure this Judgement form the High Court in the UK is good news. The High Court has recognized the UK proceeding as a "foreign main proceeding".
LBHI Docket #6055...
IT IS ORDERED that Chapter 11 of Title 11 of the United States Code in the United States proceeding Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York as commenced on 3 October 2008 (Case Number 08-13888) be recognised as a foreign main proceeding in accordance with the UNCITRAL Model Law on cross-border insolvency as set out in Schedule 1 to the Cross-Border Insolvency Regulations
2006
AND it is ordered that, for the avoidance of doubt, the stay and suspension under Article 20 of further order made by the court
the Model Law shall not apply as regards Cases HCO9C 11612 and HCO9C01931 and any appeals in such actions, and shall not affect or inhibit in any way the rights of the applicant to transfer,
encumber or otherwise dispose of or deal with any of its own assets as "debtor in possession" subject to the provisions of Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code.
AND it is ordered that the costs of the said application be paid as an expense of the Applicant's costs voluntary case under Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code.
I believe this gives the lead to Judge Peck and allows US Chap 11 laws to be recognized as the final authority. This is big for two cases that are derivatives setting precedents. UK law would have decided differently.
Any lawyers out there that have a better understanding of this?
Coach T
Yes Sir...That gap. Just my thoughts...when I look at the weekly charts from a 2 year time frame that is what I keep envisioning. Whether or not it happens...
Coach T
On a whopping 100 share trade. That is $7. Does not pay for commission and is outside the bid.
The MM are getting ready to run it IMO.
This is how they flush all the weakest players out on stops, etc. just before it takes off.
There are green bids on all the trusts and preferreds.
Coach T
Bonds
Ratings Last Sale
Symbol CUSIP Type Issuer Name Coupon Maturity Moody's S&P Fitch Last $ Change Yield Last Sale Date & Time Remove
LEHM.GBG 52517PC58 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 2.88 10/22/2008 NR NR NR 18.875 0.925 - 11/25/2009 12:07:26
LEHM.GBY 52517PD65 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 3.01 12/23/2010 NR NR CCC 14.100 -5.900 - 12/03/2009 12:40:21
LEHM.GCV 52517PF63 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 5.50 04/04/2016 NR NR CCC 19.750 1.250 - 12/04/2009 13:16:00
LEHM.GTP 52517PH61 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 5.75 05/17/2013 NR NR CCC 20.850 1.100 - 12/04/2009 13:22:14
LEHM.GUL 52517PK59 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 5.75 07/18/2011 NR NR CCC 19.750 3.350 - 12/03/2009 15:10:18
LEHM.GZJ 52517PR60 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 5.25 02/06/2012 NR NR CCC 19.250 -1.250 - 12/04/2009 12:32:22
LEHM.HDG 52517P2K6 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 2.95 05/25/2010 NR NR CCC 20.000 - - 12/04/2009 08:19:29
LEHM.HEO 52517P4C2 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 6.00 07/19/2012 NR NR CCC 18.500 - - 12/04/2009 12:50:43
LEHM.HF 524908BQ2 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 7.20 08/15/2009 NR NR CCC 18.330 - - 12/04/2009 13:27:23
LEHM.HQ 524908CF5 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 7.88 11/01/2009 NR NR CCC 18.500 0.500 - 12/04/2009 11:02:14
LEHM.JDJ 5252M0BZ9 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 5.63 01/24/2013 NR A+ CCC 21.750 0.750 - 12/04/2009 12:33:33
LEHM.JGY 5252M0FD4 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 6.88 05/02/2018 NR NR CCC 22.062 2.062 - 12/04/2009 10:29:19
LEHM.TF 52517PVM0 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 4.38 11/30/2010 NR NR CCC 19.750 1.250 - 12/04/2009 13:15:35
LEHM.TX 52517PVV0 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 4.80 03/13/2014 NR NR CCC 20.250 0.750 - 12/04/2009 13:52:03
LEHM.TZ 52517PVU2 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 3.60 03/13/2009 NR NR CCC 19.750 1.250 - 12/04/2009 13:14:50
LEHM.XS 52517PYN5 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 4.25 01/27/2010 NR NR CCC 18.600 -1.400 - 12/03/2009 13:27:08
LEHM.ZZ 52517PA35 Corporate LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC 4.50 07/26/2010 NR NR CCC 19.500 -0.500 - 12/04/2009 12:57:31
Coach T
There are some positive games being played right now. I have been trying to pick up more trust shares and as soon as I put a new higher bid in to purchase a trade will go off at my new bid but I do not get the shares.
Brikk, I see what you mean now about the market makers shadowing bids.
Please note...the bonds are hitting new 2009 highs as we speak. I have been in Lehman since before the BK and the bonds have just now traded at $22+ for the first time since the filing! Granted, we still have along way to go...but the pace and the direction are moving well.
These bonds are up 20-30% in the last month.
Coach T
The only way to be...
I thought you were trying to "set up" an old married guy.
Her name is Holly and we have played telephone tag the last couple of days.
I specifically asked her a question about why Mr. Marsal does not emphasize the balance sheet as much as the Cash, Bank Book, RE and Private Equity values in his creditors updates.
The reporters only seem to pick up on about 50B of the assets. I would gladly take the illiquid assets of $250B-$275B in a spinoff to shareholders.
So why doesn't it get any attention?
Will let you know the answer when I get one. We are going to need a shareholders committee pretty soon IMO.
Coach T
Who is Lisa?
Coach T
VIVA:
Spoeaking of hiding money all over the place...I was reading thru the dockets over the last couple of days looking for the balance sheet and I came accross a docket that Judge Peck signed off on to give $71M dollars of money back to BNY.
That was money going back to BNY for misdirected transfers that had come in after the filing.
The interesting part was that BNY had found money on deposit by LBHI that did not belong to BNY and was LEHMAN funds.
Oh by the way, the docket was to release the depsotied 100M+ back to LBHI plus $1M in accrued interest.
Keep the Faith...we have not had much news lately. The next three months will be fun filled.
Balance sheet should be out after the close. Maybe that is where we will get the "gap up" on the weekly charts that I keep thinking we will get someday to match the "gap down" on Sept. 14, 2008.
Happy Holidays!
Coach T
Still watching the horizon for the MOR, Viva!
Will advise...
Coach T
The MOR dated 12/31/08 released in August 2009 stated assets/liabilities of $295/$325B respectively.
Mr. Marsal stated on November 18, 2009 that "illiquid" assets have improved modestly during his court update. Most of the $295 assets are considered "illiquid". Now it becomes how much is modest and realize that there were additional marketplace increases after June 30, 2009. So there should be additional updside from the June 30 numbers due any day.
There just is no other credible source other than the numbers coming from A&M and released thru the Monthly Operating Reports MOR's on the LBHI website and on www.lehmancreditors.com .
Reporters only seem to focus on the Cash on Hand ($16B) and the Real Estate Portfolio at 14-15B down from $22B at the time of filing.
Coach T
Here is the Liquidators website for basically Lehman Asia.
For information related to companies in Hong Kong in administration, please view KPMG News or contact KPMG at
http://www.kpmg.com.hk
Coach T
I own all of the ones you mentioned. Mostly J's.
The J's will offer far more liquidity than any of the other Preferreds. If you are talking about accumulating more than 1M+ then I would use the J's as the core holding.
Then use the F's, D's, and Trusts LEHKQ, LEHLQ, LEHNQ, LHHMQ to spread the rest of your LEHMAN position.
Take a portion of your initial stake and see what kind of fills you get and you will learn for yourself.
My opinion only...Do your own research...Good luck to all!
Coach T
Fitch increased the ratings on 4 Lehman RMBS trusts...because they downgraded them too far in October and they are not losing principal as badly as previously thought!
Ooops...
http://www.pr-inside.com/fitch-revises-ratings-on-four-classes-r1610700.htm
Fitch Ratings has revised the ratings on classes 9A2, 10A4, 11A1, and 12A4 of Lehman Mortgage Trust 2007-5.
These bonds were downgraded to 'D' on Oct. 6, 2009 following a reported principal write-down as of the September 2009 distribution date. Fitch periodically downgrades RMBS bonds that incur write-downs to 'D' as part of its ongoing surveillance process.
However, the allocation of losses to these bonds was recently deemed incorrect and the distributions have since been adjusted. Since these bonds have not incurred principal write-downs as originally reported, Fitch is revising the bonds' ratings back to the ratings that were in place prior to the Oct. 6 downgrades.
--Class 9A2 revised to 'C/RR3' from 'D/RR3';
--Class 10A4 revised to 'C/RR3' from 'D/RR3';
--Class 11A1 revised to 'C/RR2' from 'D/RR2';
--Class 12A4 revised to 'C/RR3' from 'D/RR3'.
The Recovery Rating (RR) scale is based upon the expected relative recovery characteristics of an obligation. For structured finance, Recovery Ratings are designed to estimate recoveries on a forward-looking basis while taking into account the time value of money.
The methodology used to assign Recovery Ratings is described in Fitch's Aug. 17, 2009 report, 'Criteria for Structured Finance Recovery Ratings'.
Coach T
So it will not reflect any claims...IMO.
No...this balance sheet is going to be as of June 30, 2009.
We know the market dipped in the first Qtr, hit the bottom at the end of March, and, was better at the end of the 2nd Qtr or June 30, 2009.
Remember, we are quite delayed in the reporting time frame. We know credit markets got a lot better in the third Qtr! We won't see those numbers until the end of January, at best. THAT IS WHERE YOU WILL SEE THE GREATEST MOVEMENT ACCORDING TO THE MARKETPLACE!
IMO...
Coach T