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C-Ken,
From my correspondence with MD in Feb. 2009, he is expecting the following amounts in the copper concentrate. I am not sure if this is just from the Hidden Treasure mine, or overall for the foreseeable future. Also keep in mind that this was from a discussion in Feb. 2009, and things may have changed.
"The concnetrate should assay as follows: .25 to .5 OPT (ounces per ton) Gold, 70 ounces per ton silver, 35% average copper. This is 35% X 2000 lbs. = 700 pounds copper per ton of concentrate. Will make 70-100 tons of con per day."
So at an aggressive number of 100 tons of concentrate produced per day (which equates to around 3,000 tons of ore processed per day): 70,000 pounds copper per day X $2.10 = $147,000, Gold 37.5 oz X $900.00= $33,750.00, Silver 70 OPT X 100 tons con. = 7,000 oz X 13.00 = $91,000 per day. So an aggressive per day total would be $271,750. Then you have to reduce that amount by 5-10% for the smelting process, so CPRK, at todays material prices, should get around $245,000 - $258,000 in daily revenues. Using 340 production days / year, that equates to annual revenues of around $83M - $87M.
For the sake of discussion, assume that 50% of revenues will be profits, so they will have an annual profit of around $40M. That equates to $.0133 profit per share (assuming 3.0B shares). If 1/2 of it is given as dividends and 1/2 reinvested into paying off debt, buyback of shares, and growth, then we would all get around $.0065 per share in dividends and maybe have a stock price of around $.15 - $.20, IMO.
FFF
Correction: I went back and checked some of my notes from my visit on Feb. 5. The Hidden Treasure mine is expected to last about 14 months. Back in Feb. the plan was to go from Hidden Treasure to Copper Ranch (last 10 months) to Candy B (last 8-10 years). But I think that may have changed since then with the discoveries of new deposits. Does anyone from the Grand Opening know which mine will be next?
FFF
Eye,
I was not at the Grand Opening, but I don't believe that the 6% copper ore samples were from the Hidden Treasure mine, which is where they are mining now. That mine should last for less than a year once they get into full production. So hopefully we will start to see that really high grade ore in the next year or so. And don't forget, the 1.8% ore in the Hidden Treasure mine is considered very high grade for the industry - and the 6% is unheard of (at least until now!).
FFF
Wow. Nice volume today. Less than 2.5 hours into the day and we are already over 10M shares. And so far only 1 trade has been under $.02. Hopefully we can hold at, or above, $.02 for the day.
FFF
Jimmy,
Let's assume your calculations are correct and the company will make $.02 per share per year in profit. There are many different ways to look at what is a reasonable share price.
If they pay 50% of the profits as dividends, then we will make $.01 per year per share in dividends. If you are looking for an 8% return on your investment (which today is a great return), then this would justify a share price of $.125. ($.125 x 8% = $.01). If you think they will pay more than 50% as dividends, then the share price goes up, and if you think they will pay less than 50%, the share price would go down.
A lot of investors use a P/E multiple to justify a share price. P/E is share Price divided by Earnings (or profits). I have done some minimal DD on P/E multiples for copper mining companies and a few months ago found they were ranging between 8-15. If you use a P/E of 8, then this says the share price should be $.02 profit x 8 = $.16. If you use 15, then the share price should be $.30.
There are other methods for estimating share price, but those are 2 of them.
FFF
Hammer,
When we were at the mill in Feb. 2009, we discussed buyers for the concentrate with MD. He said they had been in discussions with several buyers and were not locking into anyone at that time. The price of copper was low and they wanted the flexibility to get the best price on the market when they are ready to sell. He stated that selling the concentrate is not an issue. For what it's worth, I believed him.
He did state (on Feb. 5, 2009) that the concentrate would probably go to Hayden, AZ, and if not there, then to China. He said he gets calls on a regular basis from buyers in China about selling to them.
Now keep in mind that this was a few months ago. But with the demand for copper increasing, I don't beleive that obtaining a buyer for the concentrate will be a concern.
FFF
OT: Fairways,
I am a University of Michigan Wolverine, not a Michigan State Spartan. But with that being said, I was rooting for MSU, even though I had UNC as the overall champion in my 3 NCAA pools.
FFF
Baggers,
Did you read your post before you submitted it? What are you trying to say?
FFF
Web,
I am with you brother! I bought into this for the long haul, but I am really getting frustrated with the missed target dates. I think this will still be a very good investment, especially if they can get the mill up and running soon. I am hopeful that they really are close and they will be able to get into production soon. It is tough to get so many negative posts on the boards and not have positive PR's from the company to negate them. I would really love to get some straight communication from the company as to their progress on this.
FFF
I made a post a while ago (it was deleted) asking Pal what his intentions are on this board. He went from this is his first stock and I have no money to invest, to how much should I buy?, to I am going to buy 800k shares, to I am going to buy 2M shares, to making predictions on the stock price and out of the blue on how a reverse split will happen.
At this point I do not put much credence in these posts.
FFF
Web,
I just spent an hour reading the NSS article at the link you posted (http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22856435). That is some scary stuff. Luckily I do have certs for all of my shares. And based on that article, it sounds like everyone who owns shares that are "in their brokerage account" should also be requesting that share certificates be issued and mailed to them.
If there are large nss positions on this stock, then I can see how the share price could be kept artificially low and how the release of good news (grand opening, start of production, obtaining long term financing, etc.) could have little impact on the share price of the stock. Which it seems to me is what is going on right now.
From what I gathered from the article, our best hope here is for the company to issue dividends. Not only would the shareholders get all or some of their investment returned, but the people who have been nss'ing will have to fund the dividend for all of the nss shares they are holding.
From your perspective, what is the answer to this? To get on a larger, and regulated, exchange?
Thanks.
FFF
Water Boy,
Everyone has their price (per MD on this very topic). And even though it is MD's dream, if the right offer comes along this could secure the financial future for him and several of his future generations. After all, he is the largest CPRK shareholder (per MD). I don't know how many shares he owns, but I would think it is at least 300M. If someone were to come in an offer $1 a share at some point in the future, I personally, would sell my dream for $300M as I could then live a lot of my other dreams!
But as some others have said, I don't see any serious offers being made for at least a couple years. They have received offers, but nothing worth considering at this time. And I don't see CPRK wanting to sell before they at least know what they have in the ground there. They would hate to sell out for a $1, and later realize that if they had finished their drilling campaign they could have found it was worth $2 per share based on the ore bodies.
So in the meantime, we are left to watch the shares bounce around $.018 today.
FFF
What's up with these $5 - $10 transactions? 250 and 600 shares @ $.02, 350 and 550 shares at $.0195. The total trade amount of those 4 transactions combined is $34.55. Why even bother?
FFF
Pal3,
You really need to answer that question for yourself. What is your level of risk tolerance? How much can you afford to lose? What is your investment time frame?
I own a large number of shares. If this thing goes south and I lose it all, then it will suck and I will not be happy that I invested that much into it - But it will not put me in the poor house either. If it hits $.50, then I could retire in my 40's and live a much better retirement than I am living now while working. I don't know if this stock will ever get to $.50, but with the ore bodies they are claiming, it could possibly get there or higher in the next several years or longer. But because they are not yet in production, don't have any incomming revenue yet, have a history of missing production dates, and are a Pink Sheet stock, there is also the chance that you lose all or most of your investment here. My litmus test is comparing how losing my entire investment would impact my retirement versus how this stock hitting $.10, $.25 and $.50 would impact my retirement. I was at the mill on Feb. 5, 2009, and came away impressed enough that I think this can get to $.25 or more. So I invested.
Do you plan on holding on to the stock for years or for months? Or are you looking to get in and out as the stock price goes up and down? All of these should play in your decision on whether to invest and how much to invest.
But my biggest advice to you would be to research and do your own due diligence before you make this, or any other, investment. You can use the posts here to help you in gathering information, but also be aware that people can make things up and you never really know if you are being told the truth.
I hope that helps you at least a little.
FFF
On2Them,
That sounds about right. And at $1.80/# for copper, $950/oz. for gold, and $13.50/oz. for silver, that comes to around $195,000 in revenue per day x 340 days production per year x 95% of market value = $63M per year in revenues. And that is at the starting value of 2500 tons of ore per day. When they get to 4000, 5000, or 6000 tons per day, then things will really get exciting for us investors!
FFF
On2Them,
It was my video. I just posted the link again in a different post, but here it is again:
FYI. The video of the mill that I put on youtube from my visit to CPRK / WUCC on Feb. 5, 2009 has had 980 views to date. Hopefully with all the added visibility CPRK should be getting, the new video will top 1000 quickly.
The link to that video is:
BY,
As of 3/24:
Float: 798M
Outstanding Shares, O/S: 2.752B
Authorized Shares, A/S: 3.0B
The stock closed at $.016 on Friday, so O/S x .016 = $44M market cap.
The A/S increased from 2.5B to 3.0B on 3/2/09, and the O/S has increased 253M since then. As discussed in great detail on this board earlier this month, this was to fund the additional money needed to get the mill into production and until revenues started flowing in.
My understanding is that the SEC has been told about the suspected NSS, but that the SEC has too much on their plate to pay much attention to a pink sheet stock.
FFF
TrueBlue,
It is great that you had an awesome day! Now spill the beans!
Those of us that weren't there are dying to hear all about the details. How many people were there? Have they fired up the mill yet? When are they expecting to? When do they expect to start real production? Any news about selling more shares or long term financing? Did they disclose any info about the new ore deposits they are finding? Were there any press or high ranking diplomats there? And anything else you heard!
I can't wait to hear more details.
FFF
Arnold,
What PPS did we close at?
FFF
I too am anxiously awaiting for posts from those who are attending the GO today. And as an investor, I have mixed feelings about them giving out all the good news this weekend.
I would like to see 2 things happen: Buyback and retire shares of stock to get a more reasonable share structure. And I would like to see the price of the stock increase.
If it was me running the show, I would not disclose any good news until after I was bringing in revenue and had completed a stock buyback program. Then I would publish all the good news. This way you can keep the share price down while you are doing your buybacks.
However, I think Dotson wants to keep the investors informed and he wants the price to go up for the investors - afterall he is the largest shareholder.
I expect that they will use the GO to disclose a bunch of good news about the mill and mines to the attendees and follow that up with PR's next week. And I think that will cause a bump in the price. I am not expecting $.10, but I would certainly not be opposed to that either. I personally think we will need to be in production and bringing in revenues before we hit double digits.
FFF
J_T and OldFart,
Thanks for the correction!
FFF
OEM,
A reverse split is done to reduce the amount of shares of stock in a company. If they did a 100 : 1 R/S, that would mean that you would then have 1 share of stock for every 100 shares that you used to have. But your percentage of ownership in the company would remain the same, because this R/S would apply to all Authorized Shares, Outstanding Shares, and Float. So if you now own 3M shares, you own .1% of the 3B Authorized Shares. After a 100:1 R/S, you would own 30,000 shares, which would still be .1% of the 30M Authorized Shares.
The reason some people are suggesting that this be done is to increase the price of the stock to over $1.00, which is where a stock needs to be to get on some of the more major exchanges. If your stock today is worth $.015, then a 100:1 R/S should, theoretically, make the new shares worth $1.50. The reason some people want to get off the Pink Sheets and onto a major exchange is that they feel serious investors, with serious money, won't be interested in a Pink Sheet stock that doesn't have to report audited financials, etc., and is only worth a few cents a share.
I am not sure what the future will hold in terms of the share structure. IF you are looking to get the share price up and sell out, then this should be an important issue to you. If you are looking to hold long term and make your money from future dividends, then this is probably not as important to you.
Dotson has said at least a couple times that he doesn't see a reason to get off the Pink Sheets. He wants to be the big fish in a little pond. He also stated that he doesn't really care about the share price and that his goal is to make a lot of money for the investors through dividends. Personally, I would like to see both!
FFF
Webtime,
Who confirmed that the mill will be running for the party? This is the first I have heard of that. It is great news if it is true.
FFF
Dgraves,
I agree that the mill probably cannot handle 60,000 tons of ore per day. But that is why they are planning to start at 2,500 tons per day, with a maximum through put of 6,000 tons per day. Now that they can probably handle!
You really should get your information and numbers straight before posting inaccurate numbers and statements as facts.
FFF
Richard,
I am not discounting that the price of copper will have a significant impact on the price of this stock when it gets to production. I simply don't think it does yet. But I watch the price of copper every day, in anticipation of the day when it is based on the price of copper. And Morgan Man does a great job of feeding us with the latest copper news and projections.
My post was not about the price of the stock. It was to simply find out what formula Morgan Man was using to determine the relationship between changes in the price of copper and the amount of additional revenue it will bring into CPRK on an annual basis. Morgan Man said he thought a $.25 increase in copper would bring in an additional $25M in revenue. I think it will only be about 30-40% of that.
Now, if you want to talk about the impact of increased revenue on the stock price, that is a different topic. A $25M increase in profits would equate to an additional $.0083 per share, at 3B shares. Depending on what Price to Earning ratio (P/E) you use, that could have a big impact on share price. A P/E of 10 would increase the stock price by $.083 per share, and a 25 P/E would have the share price go up by $.208 just by an increase in profits of $25M per year. But I have no idea what would be a valid P/E for this stock.
FFF
Morgan Man,
I agree that an increase in the price of copper means increased revenue and profitability to CPRK once they are in production. But right now I have to agree with MP1091 - The price of copper is not a driver in the price of CPRK, at this time. Once we are producing, then the price of copper will have an impact. Right now, we are still a company that is trying to get to production, and the price of the stock is simply a reflection of people's belief on whether or not they can get there. I think they can and they will.
Also, I would be interested in your calculation on how each penny increase in the price of copper equates to an additional $1M in revenue. My calculations show that a $.25 increase in copper would equate to $5M - $10M a year in additional revenues.
The first question is what mill capacity are you using for the mill? Their expected starting volume of 2500 tons of ore per day, or the upper end of their expected capacity of 6000 tons per day?
2500 tons ore per day x 2000 lbs. per ton x 340 days per year production x .017 copper content x .65 extraction effectiveness x .95 discounted selling price to smelter x $.25 per pound increase in copper price = $4.5M per year in increased revenue.
6000 tons ore per day x....the same as above.... = $10.7M per year in increased revenue.
Now the above numbers also change as the copper content of the ore changes. The Hidden Treasure mine is around 1.7-1.8% copper content. Some of the other mines there are less, and there has been reports on this board that they are finding some new deposits with over 3% copper content.
The good news is that any increase in copper prices falls directly to profit, as our expenses should already be covered.
FFF
David-C,
I received an email invite last week and I received a hard copy in the mail yesterday.
FFF
Intel2,
The decline in share price starting on the date of the A/S increase on March 2, and the fact we have been holding around $.015 since, has had me puzzled. I couldn't figure out why the price was not going up when we were getting so close to production, and when we have formal announcements out for the Grand Opening.
But after reading your post the lights went on. Of course, the price isn't going to go up, when you have the big players picking up 253M shares direct from the company instead of buying through the open market exchanges! That makes perfect sense to me. And my guess is that when CPRK stops selling shares, that in itself, will cause a nice bump in the share price.
Thanks for bringing this to light for me.
FFF
Layton,
When you were there, was the rock crusher down by the entrance to the mill? I think it was still up by the overburden pile when we were there on Feb. 5.
FFF
As far as I know, CPRK is not selling shares through the open market. They are private transactions between the company and an individual to whom they want to sell shares. The price they sell shares for has to be based on the market price. It wouldn't make a lot of sense for an individual to buy a restricted share direct from the company for more than you could buy a free trading share on the open market. So if the market price goes down, then so does the price that CPRK can get for direct sales of its stock.
So both statements I made are valid.
FFF
Hi all. This post covers several topics brought up over the last day.
First. I was one of the 20 investors who visited the mill/mine on Feb. 5. I am from the Detroit area. I own a company that provides fabricated steel components to the automotive industry. My visit on Feb. 5 is my only visit to the site. I originally stumbled on CPRK by accident on Friday, August 29, 2008. I took Friday afternoon off work to play golf and got hooked up with another 3-some. That 3-some happened to be from Utah and they were in town for the U. of Michigan vs. U. of Utah football game the next day. (we won't talk about who won). One of the guys in the 3-some is a CPRK board member and we remained in contact after that date.
(this paragraph addresses a question by the Big Hammer) Through my continued conversations with this board member, I decided to invest in CPRK, and in Oct. 2008, I purchased 5M shares of restricted stock (2.5M through my company, 1.5M in my IRA account, and 1M personally), at a discount below the current market prices of the stock. Note: These shares are not under the market price! This stock is retricted, which means I cannot sell it on the open market, until Oct. 2009.
I don't know CopperKing's philosophy on it now, but at that time, I was told they were not offering stock directly to the general public. They were selling it through personal contacts and referrals to people who they thought were supportive of the company and would want to hold on to the stock long term.
Several people making posts here have made references to supporting CopperKing by buying stock. But the only way to support the company and help them get to production is to buy the stock directly from them. Any shares bought in the open market does not bring any revenue into CPRK.
Over the past month I have hooked 8 new investors up directly with CopperKing and they have purchased stock directly through the company. This is what will help CPRK to get to production and this is how the increased A/S will help them get there. And yes, these were also purchased at a discount below the current market share price.
If you are interested in buying shares directly from CPRK, and helping to supply them with the funds they need to get to production, then I suggest you start by contacting Gavin and see what he can do for you. I also suspect that anyone who visits the mill will be offered the opportunity to buy direct - as it was mentioned to us at our visit on Feb. 5. So Sjframe, I say jump on a plane and go get some! I got more last month, and again last week.
I have read Layton Todd's post about his visit there last Monday, and it correlates perfectly with my experience with Mark Dotson on Feb. 5. Here is the correlations from my visit: Mark has a GREAT disdain for Toshiba as they have jerked him around on promises and delivery dates for 5-6 months now. Dotson also told us that this is at least a 100 year project. He showed us the Civil War gun with a bayonet, that he said was used in a battle somewhere nearby Milford. We were told that he has had several offers to buy the company, but that he had turned them all down as they were ridiculously low ball offers (you're not going to get a top dollar offer on a pink sheet company that has not yet proved it can get to production, so that sounds valid to me.). (This is for Djr63:) Dotson also talked about Wilf and how Wilf sold him a bill of goods and did not deliver on his promises as part of the merger. Dotson is not happy about that and not happy with Wilf, but he said some good came out of it as it allowed them to go public and raise the funds that have been needed to get to this point. Dotson also talked about how he thought the share price was being driven down by Naked Short Sellers, but that it couldn't be proved by him, and the SEC doesn't bother with the Pink stocks. But he also wanted to catch them with their pants down (my words, not his) because their driving the price down meant CPRK had to sell more and more shares to get the same amount of capital needed to get the mill done - This is why we have the current share structure that we do. My impression on how he was going to get the shorters was by getting the stock price to increase, not to drive it down to 0, as Dgraves keeps saying. (By the way, Dgraves is the only one who has been there who says this is Dotson's plan, so take that for what its worth). Dotson also said that he thought we would do better as shareholders by being the biggest fish in the pink sheet pond, then moving up to a larger exchange. He also stated that he is all about taking care of the shareholders, and that his mission is to not worry about the share price of the stock, but to make shareholders a lot of money through dividends. Dotson also told us that he was still hoping for a dividend to shareholders by summer.
2 things I didn't like about Layton Todd's post (I believe him, I just didn't like the message):
1. Power should be completed by the end of the week. We have been hearing that for a couple of weeks now. I hope that is true, but I also wouldn't be surprised if that slips again. Not having power up already, IMO, makes a soft start before the Grand Opening less likely.
2. Trying to pay a dividend by the end of the summer. As a holder of a large number of shares, this would be great for me in the short term. But as a startup business that will be lucky to have their first revenues coming in during July, that seems a little too optimistic. I would rather see them use any profits this year to: a. pay down debt, b. buy back shares while they are cheap, and c. build up a cash reserve for a rainy day or emergency need.
Lastly, I believe that I am a good judge of people's character, and I liked what I saw in Dotson. He is a salt of the earth kind of guy. He is a miner. He is not polished, and he is, by no means, slick. But he is smart. And he knows everything that is going on in this business. He spoke directly and openly on every question we threw at him. I walked away with the impression that Mark has a mission to bring prosperity to Milford, and to help the United States with what he is doing there. One of the reasons I went to the mill was to meet Mark before I made another large investment into the company. And since then, I have made that investment. I also now have my parents, sister, brother, cousin, uncle, 2 employees, and 2 friends invested in the company as well.
So I say, if you are going to buy more shares, go try and get them direct from the company and get us to production!
FFF
Layton,
If you have been to the Mill / Mine twice in the last week, why are you not feeding us the latest info? We are very hungry for that kind of info, so please feed us!
Where are they on production? Have they run ore all the way through the mill? Is all the plumbing finished and leak tested? Have the lockouts to the power been removed by the power company? What are their expectations for a soft start date? Have they been finding any more high grade ore deposits? And anything else you can think of that might be of interest to us investors who have not been there lately.
Thanks in advance for your input!
FFF
Woodchuck,
I have heard that they are expecting 800 people over the 2 days. If that is true, I doubt that you will get much personalized attention from management. My guess is that it will probably be more of a dog and pony show. If you have been there before, then I am sure it will be interesting to see the progress. If you haven't then it would be interesting to see it in person. I was there once before, Feb. 5, and I am considering going again to see the progress and see some of the other investors again that I met the first time there. But I certainly won't be expecting to get an inside track on what is happening there during the Grand Opening, or expect to have lunch with Mark Dotson and their geologist like I did last time.
If you really can't do both and have to make a decision on whether to go or to use it to buy more shares, I might lean towards buying more shares, and then going later for a personilzed tour after the stock goes up and you can afford it. But that is just me.
But I don't need to make that decision, because, as Trueblue would say, I already backed the truck up again today!
FFF
Good luck with your decision.
I received an email invitation. They haven't mailed the hard copy invites yet.
FFF
Richard,
OT: I was thinking of flying into SLC for the Grand Opening and maybe getting a little golf or skiing in while I was there. But I may have to cancel those plans and hook up with you in Vegas! What was I thinking?
FFF
I have no beforehand knowledge of PR's.
FFF
Hammer Time,
Yes. I was there on 2/5/09. There was a steady stream of dump trucks hauling away the overburden from the Hidden Treasure mine. In the start of my video,
Water Boy,
I have to defend Webtime here. I am a big proponent of CPRK and I hold quite a few shares. I think this will ultimately be a good financial windfall for me. However, they really do need to do some work on their PR's. They've basically missed every target date they have issued. I would much rather see them under promise and over deliver, instead of what they are doing, which is the opposite. It is great to have a positive attitude, but when your PR's don't have any contingencies for setbacks, you are setting yourself up for a hit to your credibility. And right now their PR's don't have much credibility.
With that being said, I am glad to hear the the invites are being printed and that the dates are set.
I also have to agree with Intel2, as I don't think they will be in production for the Grand Opening. That is only 2 weeks away and they haven't done a soft start yet. And once they do a soft start, it will probably take another month to sort out the flowsheet for production. I am hopeful that the soft start will happen prior to the Grand Opening event, but I am not counting on it.
FFF
Trueblue,
I am sure Mark Dotson has been to the mill this week. Is that what you meant by your question?
No, I don't know any investors who have been there this week. Is there something in particular that you want to find out?
FFF