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This region is starving for refining capacities. They sell raw oil and buy back refined products, which can’t be produced over there. Iran is renting huge tankers to store the excess of oil production. Iraq, Syria, Iran are looking at NWOG with hope: “Help us!” :)
But the real surprise would be creating NWOG-Carlyle JV for buying Yukos/Slovakia/Transpetrol (thanks euddoggwyn for the hint). It would be the news comparable to today’s Syria deal.
Regarding world wide attention... Imagine what happens if Tobin Smith recommends it to his “aggressive growth buy” portfolio. As one of his “alliance members” I have been recommending NDOL for some time now. He may realize that I was not kidding after all. :)
North-West Oil Group (formerly Nord Oil International Inc.)... that's all we needed to know. Pinky NDOL has $3.5 bln contract with Syria... I really don't care about tomorrow's open or close.
IMO.
I don’t think individual investors can or want short NDOL (AURC) at this time. When the stock price is so depressed and any next PR could be so explosive - risk/reward ratio is just not good enough. You need a real conviction that the stock is a scam to short it at this point. So, most of the flippers (“swing traders”) are playing the long side, but for them “long” means a couple of days. :) I would do this myself for part of my position if I had time to “watch the tape”. People who expect $2+ as “fundamentally fair” price but, at the same time, are complaining about flippers, need either to lower their expectations and start trading themselves, or ignore daytraders, who are here to create liquidity for long term investors. OTOH, big institutions (hedge funds, MMs) could create a real long term problem, but, again, this is part of the game, which we can’t control.
IMO.
Actually, these links give:
Director: Vasilyauskas Boleslav
address and a few phone #s. But... I am not sure they are current, especially after I found this one:
http://www.avias.com/news/2002/10/21/38262.html
about liquidation of GOK in 2002. :)
We can make some estimates of Klyon production schedule looking at Bema's Kupol page:
http://www.bema.com/308/Kupol_Project.htm
"A potential large low-cost producer in 2008" What stage (1-4) are we in? The first one would explain 2009 target.
OT. johnson, please check your e-mail.
Oh, yes... forgot to mention my 300K SPRL position. Deep under water... With all my respect to Sam (based on testimonies of other posters) this is the most risky position of all. IMO.
Hi, Brent.
I am doing OK, playing “Russian roulette” :)
AURC – recent Krong acquisition eliminates all questions about coming production. I have upgraded it from “Speculative buy” to “Buy & hold”. Small position.
NDOL – nothing changed. Big position and big hopes. Buy & hold.
SIBN – has moved up recently. Patiently waiting for EOY news. Hold.
NNRF – solid long term investment completely unknown to investment community. Zero volume and zero interest. Buy & hold.
SERG – my new play. Lucky purchase (up 50+% in a few days). I am still researching this one, so not rated yet. Actually, I feel it went up too fast too soon, so took some profits today.
I also own pennies: GLE, TDYH, PGRIW, CWRN (re-entered today, flipped a few times, so have a good return despite of sharp price decline), NNYG (holding and getting tired), and bunch of other more solid NYSE stocks.
Leaving to Europe for 2-week vacation in a couple of days. So, trying to bring my portfolio into autopilot mode: raise some cash, eliminate margin, etc. It was proved many times in a past that my stocks perform much better when I leave them alone. :)
You did that "for a couple of months" and are now broke. Do you want us to get broke too? Just kidding... I am sitting on the bid right now. :)
I don't have a subscription, but it's probably:
"Russia: Sanctions Against Shell Not Ruled Out
October 16, 2006 11 11 GMT
Russia does not rule out major sanctions against Royal Dutch/Shell for environmental damages during the development of the Sakhalin II oil and gas field, Russia's natural resources minister said Oct. 16. If the Sakhalin energy project produces a comprehensive plan that is approved by Russia to halt environmental damage, there would be no reason to cease the project, the minister added. "
http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=278046
"The Company reports that it expects annual revenues of USD 300 million from its three properties by end of fiscal 2007 and when consolidated with the companies other reserves annual revenues are estimated to reach $700 million by fiscal 2009."
"The estimated gold and silver reserves in the Klyon deposit potentially make it our single most prized asset yet with over 1.9 million ounces of gold and 4.9 million ounces of silver and with gold still moving beyond the $550 per ounce and with experts predicting $1000 per ounce, this deposit can become our cash-cow for the next 30 years," further added Mr. Feldbush.”
Klyon deposit is definitely “single most prized asset”, a real gem in Aurus’ collection of properties. However, don’t expect to see it among those “three properties” that will deliver gold by the end of 2007. Yes, we all know about that old 2002 statement with plans to start production in May, 2007. But it was completely different time, and it’s not going to happen. IMO. Here is the most recent Russian “Gold Report”:
http://gold.prime-tass.com/bulletin/files/200610/gold20061009.pdf
“Chukotka gold production is up 4.62% in 9 months… Currently we have gold production from Valunistoe and Dvoynoe deposits, Karalveem is prepared for re-starting of gold extraction, Kupol – construction and assembling of equipment, Mayskoe – exploration” (page 10) So, even Karalveem (which used to deliver gold) is not producing at this time. Kupol is on early stages of development, and Klyon (which is a couple of years behind Kupol) is not mentioned at all. Development of this asset requires major efforts and good financing. Of course, this could be resolved by creating of JV with “large Canadian and US-based multinationals” (per Mr. Feldbush), but my feeling – they would rather buy Aurus before it gets too expensive. I am still looking with hope at Bema. When Kupol produces it’s first gold they will look closely at neighboring Klyon. :)
IMO.
Good description of Sec rules that allow MMs to "legally" naked short an OTCBB or Pink Sheet stock into oblivion:
http://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/s72303/rseitl121203.htm
<<a subpoena will be delivered to I-Hub to obtain your personal information to take criminal action against you>>
OK, BJ, let’s assume his information is false (which nobody knows for sure). Who would be interested to spend time and money to bring him to court? I can not think of anyone except hedge fund that shorted the stock – they would have all grounds to do this because of financial losses caused by this “false” information. Is it what you mean? Question: Who would “take criminal action”?
Just for the record: I don’t think that shorting is illegal or even inappropriate. If shares are legally borrowed – it’s OK. Naked shorting is a forgery and should be treated as a crime.
IMO.
Direct link that will never disappear: http://www.bossmag.ru/view.php?id=1739
How will you keep him accountable for his statements in future if you delete them? That’s exactly my purpose: I keep reminding him that he is “on record”. Otherwise, he will claim that it was $0.7 not $0.07 (as he tried already). Anyway, feel free to delete my reference to BJ – I don’t assign any value to this, except tying him to his words for future reference.
He was talking about $0.07/sh placement to NewConsult:
$10 mln/0.07 = 142,857,143 new shares
$50 mln/0.07 = 714,285,714 new shares
So, according to BJ, there are ~250 mln OS. And this number can grow in future.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=13566578
All these numbers sound ridiculous to me, but… next time, when anybody decides to talk to Parkin, please ask if his OS numbers include warrants or other possible “future” shares, granted to NewConsult.
Well, quick research:
1. Russneft sold Volganeft in December, 2005 to "Samara-Nafta"
http://www.oilcapital.ru/comments/2006/01/091542_82659.shtml
There is no mentioning of VolgaNeft on Russian version of RussNeft website (the English version is outdated).
2. Amerada Hess owns 65% of Samara-Nafta now. Samara-Nafta is led by Simon Kukes, a former CEO of both Tyumen Oil Company (TNK) and Yukos Oil:
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=21280
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=101801&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=688437&highligh...
http://www.vremya.ru/2006/166/8/160856.html
Conclusion: we own completely different Volga-Neft.
Please, let me know if I am wrong.
I also like the chart and Friday's volume. Holding my recently purchased shares.
BTW, I am not sure that VolgaNeft you are referring to (open company in Russneft structure) is the same Volga-Neft (limited company with 2 owners. Did they buy it from Russneft?) that was acquired by Star. Address doesn’t match. VolgaNeft has a subsidiary OOO Kondurchaneft and a bunch of properties, which was never mentioned in PRs.
http://eng.russneft.ru/structure/info_5052.stm
http://eng.russneft.ru/structure/info_5053.stm
They give very detailed list of properties acquired
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061006/20061006005352.html?.v=1
and never mentioned “seven oils fields in Samara Oblast, which are Bulatovskoye, Kazakovskoye, Vvedenskoye, Erkulskoye, Smorodinskoye, Chernoozerskoye and Yuganskoye ones”! Volganeft’s total recoverable reserves are about 11 million tons of crude oil (~80 mln barrels). But Volga-Neft’s only Rodnikovsky field has 95 mln barrels of extraction reserves.
As to the "pink flags", I was referring to the article http://www.assoneft.ru/press/press.html?id=918 (Samara Review - in Russian)
Which indicates that nobody ever heard about Star Energy or Volga-Neft in Samara, these companies don’t produce any oil there, there is no real estate properties in Chapaevsk worth $8 mln, etc.
Pretty confusing, I will look at this, when I have time. If you can clarify all this, please, let us know. Welcome aboard, jephtah! Looking forward for your posts.
Well, stock added ~12% since the first post… and today’s volume was kind of impressive. I’m looking at some Russian sources now that are not negative but raising some “pink flags”. So, I will refrain from pumping SERG for now. :) IMO: Keep holding if you own a position (as I do), or wait for a pull back for the first entry.
Could you give us exact question you asked him? Did you mention NewConsult deal? There are different forms of financing that don't require immediate dilution, but can suppress the stock price.
<<A country can be judged by the quality of its proverbs.. Do not be born good or handsome, but be born lucky.>>
The correct translation is: "Do not be born handsome (beautiful), but be born lucky". Means nice face won't make you automatically happy. So, what's wrong with this? I like this proverb. :)
This is my take as well. I didn't expect them to sell Surgut-7 at all. This is very perspective field with big potential. I thought they will keep buying property in neighboring regions (like Magma). We all know they had problems with MOL, and JV NWOG-MOL would not survive anyway. But I always believed they would kick MOL out and keep the property. IMO, this definitely shows that something changed in company’s big strategy (like Syria deal, maybe Transpetrol?, etc.). With Surgut-7 NWOG has demonstrated it’s daytrading skills. :)
IMO.
<<This is being done to address considerable investor interest in Star being observed in Germany. >>
Yes, researching the company, I have noticed that "above average German interest". The stock is discussed on German message boards and is followed by German analysts. They call this Volga-Neft merger breathtaking and set the 12-month price target 2.1 EUR (about $2.65).
It’s obvious that Krong acquisition was well-timed and thought out. One of specifics of gold production in Russia, especially in regions like Chukotka and Magadan, this is traditionally a seasonal business – production basically stops in winter time, and workers (“starateli”) are heading South to spend hard earned money. Most of them have families and homes in Central parts of Russia. Krong’s former parent “Puma” was the first company that broke this habit. Starting 2004 they produce gold practically w/o interruptions the whole year, including freezing -40-50C days. Their technology (Puma module) keeps workers warm and happy. :) The only problem – it’s hard to find people willing to work in cold months. Tradition of “winter vacations” exists too long to be broken that easy. Krong uses the same Puma’s technology, that Aurus plans to expand on all other branches. Besides, Moscow weather is more gentle, local workers live with families, and more likely to keep working through the winter to make money for AURC shareholders. We can see this from today’s PR. :)
I’ve just started position on this one. Have done some research, and am pretty excited. Will post details and update info-box during weekend. If you have something to say about the stock or company – do it! :)
It was posted already. What's new - the price they got. As I recall, they paid $11 mln.
OK, now we know how much MOL paid for Surgut-7. It's $15.5 mln. NWOG made easy ~40% in a year on this trade, which is not bad, but lost very promissing assets in perspective region... Hopefully, they will find better use for this money.
http://www.portfolio.hu/en/cikkek.tdp?k=1&i=9832
I see volume 84,904 (Ameritrade). :)
...and Dzhalovyan Artiir Andreasovich is a major shareholder of Star after Volga acquisition, and Dzhalovian Mikhail Ashonovich - vice-president of old Nord Oil could be related to him.
IMO: SERG is a buy below $1.0 - they are doing private placement at this price. I don't own it, and am not going to pay more than that.
Thanks, nendaz, for the tip.
and Armenak A. Safarov - vice-president, acquisitions in old Nord Oil: http://www.nordoil.com/our_team.asp#directors
is an adviser for Star Energy: http://www.starvolga.com/operations_executives.html
Wouldn't be surprised if they finish in NWOG family. :)
1. Elmar Ahmedov from ZAO «Intercom Holding» and Emin Ahmedov from Ahmedov & Co http://www.ahmedov.com/pdf/brochure/brochure.pdf are probably different people.
2. Malyshev is from Baku, which (you are right) explains many contacts in this region. Baku (Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan) has been an oil center of Russia/Soviet Union for more than a hundred years, well before any oil was found in Siberia (Tumen). Actually, geologists from Azerbaijan were behind this famous discovery. Their influence is still significant everywhere in FSU. However, Malyshev is not Azerbaijani. He is half Russian, half Armenian (I think I have posted links and my speculations about Armenian roots of NDOL-NWOG merger). This makes a big difference in today’s World: Russians/Armenians are Christians, and Azerbaijanis – Muslims. Baku used to be very friendly multinational city… Now it’s a capital of sovereign State that has problems and territorial conflicts with Armenia. What I am trying to say: Malyshev can not represent Azerbaijan today, he needs old friends and connections there, somebody like Ahmedov or Piriev, to get trust in Syria or Libya.
3. PH on AURC board reminded me about Malyshev’s military background (“educated at the Military Academy”). Today his buddies-cadets, probably, have some influence in Defense Ministry… and we need them for Syria contract. :)
Thanks, PH.
Do I need to tell you that this info about NewConsult would be extremely interesting? Don't forget to let us know. :)
BTW, Malyshev is president of NWOG (not Aurus), but we all are invested in both companies, aren't we? ... and this reminder about his military background is very interesting and makes sense.
2C, I just don't know. I agree, there are pluses and minuses. Just not sure about the total balance. Besides, this is not a math, this is market psychology: mathematically you are probably correct, but investment public doesn’t know about that. Maybe they should invite you to CNBC, or publish an interview in Barrons. :) I don't need any proof that Russian natural resources companies are a good investment - I am watching and own a dozen of them. Have you noticed, that I just raised Russia's investment rating by 6 points? :)
Warning: If you don’t like wild speculations, not supported by company’s PRs – don’t read any further!
Wild speculation for entertainment purpose only:
As you know NWOG’s bid for “Transpetrol” - Slovakia Yukos asset was rejected despite the fact that they offered highest price. Rusneft was announced the winner. After that Malyshev: a. said that NWOG may bring this case to court; b. predicted that results of the tender will be canceled by Slovakian government, and “everything can happen yet”. My interpretation of “everything can happen” was: NWOG is still fighting for “Transpetrol”.
As you know, Slovakia finally vetoed the deal and Russneft withdrew it’s bid – just like Mayshev predicted.
Well, I’ve just discovered this April’s article (careful: Russian!)
http://72.14.209.104/search?q=cache:zctKi-mnjBcJ:www.dohod.ru/cgi-bin/news/new.cgi%3Fid%3D4%26nn%3D6...
that cites Malyshev: “Slovakian government is not going to approve Russneft-Yukos deal and asked us to start discussions about future of Transpetrol, but we have not decided yet whether we are interested”. Amazing! Thank you, we will think about this. :)
Transpetrol is still available. NWOG just won big Syria contract. Syria’s refining + European pipe will convert NWOG into big international integrated oil business. Another interesting fact: I see the name “Tatneft” everywhere now. They have business in Syria and wanted this deal. They were mentioned as interested in Transpetrol by Putin (!) himself. They could be interested in NWOG now!
This is an interesting exercise :)
My take:
Economic system: 4 (not worse than in Kazakhstan) +2
Political system: 5 (better than Kazakhstan and Mongolia) +2
Corruption: correct (if you think US is corrupted – you haven’t seen real corruption) +0
Currency Stability: 6 (not worse than Mexico or Mongolia) +2
Tax Regime: depends on type of investment; for gold it’s OK, for oil should be lower by 2 points. +0
Total Points: 28 (+6) which moves it to India level.
to pugdog and 2C:
I used 20% Russian discount (borrowed from wrongjoe) to get extra-conservative (almost impossible, as I said) scenario. I can't justify that 20% (why not 15 or 11?), but it's not my feeling. I already mentioned research
http://www.dolbear.com/Publications/CountryRankings2006.pdf
that shows Russia's "investment risk ranking". Russia #19, and (talking about South America) Peru #14, Bolivia #16, etc. Market assigns greater investment risk to Russia (not just for AURC). OTOH, cost of gold production is relatively low (for exapmple, for GLE it's about $300/oz) that could offset that general discount.
How can anybody deny that "Russian discount"? Look how dozens of stocks are valued. PKZ was treated like a dog all the time until they got buyout offer - then price doubled immediately. That's probably the case for AURC also - they will get "right" price when they are acquired. IMO.
Thinking about Krong...
1. Nobody in his right mind can question the fact that Aurus owns significant gold reserves. We can only argue about their fair market value.
2. Gold production is another question. Just looking at Bema’s Kupol development, I don’t believe we will see Klyon production anytime soon. Other Chukotka’s sites, with tons of “ready for processing” ore, are more likely candidates, and Krong looks like real production right now. IMO: Market values AURC as if they don’t and will never produce anything. The first PR that mentions some real production numbers: tons (even milligrams) will send the stock price “to the moon”. And I think those will be Krong’s numbers. "The $10,000,000 funding can easily turn into a $50,000,000 financing based on our performance and the price of gold " http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060925/0166418.html . They have to show “performance” = produced gold.
3. So, let’s assume that Krongs is producing gold like crazy. I will use realistic prices (lower than 2C keeps mentioning) – from my other holding GLE (GGG.TO). They do produce gold, their production is in South America – not 100% kosher, but safer place than Russia. Market values their reserves at $61/oz vs $155/oz for peer group (also undervalued). Krong’s “2,800,000 ounces of gold reserves” http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060921/0165126.html are worth then $170.8 mln – GLE equivalent; $434 mln – peer group. For IHDR’s 115 mln O/S count this gives: $1.49/sh and $3.77/sh. If they diluted to $250 mln during last placement (which I can’t believe), it would be: $0.68/sh and $1.73/sh. And using ultra-conservative 20% “Russia discount”: $1.19/sh and $3.02/sh - for “normal” O/S, $0.55/sh and $1.39/sh – for heavily diluted O/S.
So, ignoring everything else, just Krong in production gives PPS $0.55 in most pessimistic almost impossible scenario, and $1.4-3 in “normal” case. And I heard Aurus owns something else. :) Again, I reiterate my suspicion that terms of financing with NewConsult Ltd are not perfect (to say the least), and I don’t consider moving to Frankfurt as positive development, but… for me Krong is the first real almost transparent deal. And this deal alone values AURC much higher than current market price.
IMO.