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Back in 2010 when Regenicin announced the deal with Lonza the stock was at $2.20 and a market cap of $185K. Since then there is DoD backing, ODD, IND, Phase 2 trial starting, other orphans, potential PRV(s) valued at $300M each, etc.
Additionally, an award from ASPR or purchase by BARDA down the road would send this through the roof where it would be too late to get in. GC mentioned on the call they presented in May and will come back next month with more data.
Many startup bios hope to have one billion dollar opp. AMBS has 4 - Dx, Elto, ESS & MANF. Not a bad problem to have.
Sell two to fund the other two? Accelerate one to fund the other three?
Also consider if you sell one of them, what's the chances of finding an equivalent replacement asset for your pipeline a year from now when you do have extra dollars.
You could bet if they sold ESS tomorrow for $500M, there would be people bitching here how stupid that was.
That's just a fraction of highlights and just what I started noting towards the beginning. There is so much to be pulled from what GC said and the presentation.
For example, no one here even mentioned CTE. No one mentioned the slide about Lympro partnerships. I guess it's too easy to make defamatory comments about the company and poke fun at people who suffer from horrific conditions. What goes around will come around eventually.
I wouldn't worry about them. Some very immature posts as usual. They were all pumping this morning and sold out this afternoon. Goodbye for now. Gives me more time to continue to accumulate.
More importantly, the recording is up and running.
Here's a few notes as I'm starting to listen to it again.
- 3 orphans and two more on the way. A year ago none. - Opportunity for PRV which are selling at a average of $300M - ESS operating under non-diluted funding from AFRIM. - Potential for continued support. $130M awarded just yesterday. ESS was presented to a special panel in May. The data will be presented in Q4 - First gen ESS likely and immediate benefit for patients, but other things can be added to make it truly revolutionary and expand into a number of other areas
Good to hear the shift in focus to one of the company's most valuable short and long-term assets. There is a reason why ESS was valued at $1.8 Billion four years ago, even before DoD backing, ODD, IND, Phase 2 trial starting, other orphans, potential PRV(s) valued at $300M each, etc. Hats off to management for untangling the legal mess so this product can be brought to market now.
Additionally, in 2010 Vectoris/Regenicin was valued at One Billion, Eight Hundred Million Dollars ($1,800,000,000.00). However, as of July 2012, Regenicin was valued at One Hundred Fifty-Seven Million Dollars ($157,000,000.00). Accordingly, Regenicin has been damaged in the amount of One Billion, Six Hundred Forty-Three Million Dollars ($1,643,000,000.00).
I'm to lazy to look it up, but they haven't been using fly by night legal firms in the past so I don't think that's changed. On the other hand, if they went with the top law firm in the country, people would complain about the money spent per hour.
or the wrong proxy solicitation firm
Gerald Commissiong ?@G_Commish Aug 26 Thank you to proxy soliciting firm @LaurelHillAdvGp for the work you've done. Looking forward to next week. $AMBS
Was Laurel Hill Advisory hired to begin with or after the fact. Don't know, but assume the latter based on the tweet.
I don't give them a free pass, but s--t happens that's not always in ones control. Was the proxy a good example or not, we'll never know. This is not the first time I've seen a proxy screwed up with a company and unfortunately, probably not the last.
Here's where I think the team made two errors in judgement in my opinion.
They may have planned for best case or average case timelines and execution. Likely best case-ish. The proxy screw up, which was out of the company's control is just one example of where worse case happened. Now if they added all the contingency for worst case, people would have jumped ship anyway due to timelines being so far off.
They didn't expect the market reaction they got. Many shareholders didn't expect it either so not many come out smart on this one. You got a handful of analysts that have done extensive analysis on the company and value it as a multiple many times higher than it is, but yet the sp is what it is. You end up with a tsunami effect of selling, shorting, conversion, whatever.
There is a link posted on a few of the boards of getting rid of the overhang before an uplist/IPO. As painful as it's been, maybe the selling is over and onward and upward. Would appear the bottom is in. Oh to be a lucky new investor jumping in now at these levels.
Why has the company been unable to secure any Non Dilutive funding or any major grants (when Bio companies across the industry are doing so)?
Good intelligent question. My take:
F. Randall Grimes was hired two years ago to do just that. He had a track, record especially around Lympro. For whatever reason, it appears he came up short. Does that make GC a liar. Not in my book. Is everyone disappointed including me. Yes.
(when Bio companies across the industry are doing so)?
Not so sure about that. The ones that do, are usually a little further along. Tx also grabs more the the attention & dollars that Dx. I think GC said that in a CC or blog as well.
When you are a penny stock everyone wants to take advantage of you. It's the Shark Tank premise. The assumption is you are desperate for money and will agree to anything or go out of business. IBs/VCs look at tons of deals. They don't cry over the ones that didn't take a low ball offer.
But based on their dire need and precarious financial situation
It appears dire, but is it? I don't know. The analysts seem to think the company is worth potentially more. Wonder what the IB think. They are the ones that matter. I'll believe dire when they dump an asset for half of it's value.
To support the theory that the companies that are getting funding are a little further along, I posted before about AGTC which has parallels to Amarantus MANF Ophthalmology. Now that AMBS has two MANF orphans, this is why they get excited. Note AGTC doesn't have ESS, Elto, Dx, etc.
AGTC is at an early stage in their ophthalmology programs (RP, AMD, etc.) but this will give an idea of what it's worth even now.
AGTC Announces Strategic Collaboration With Biogen Effective and Biogen Equity Investment Closed
Under the terms of the agreements, Biogen will make near-term payments including an upfront payment in the amount of $124 million to AGTC, which includes a $30 million equity investment at a purchase price of $20.63 per share. AGTC is eligible to receive upfront and milestone payments exceeding $1 billion in total. Biogen will be granted a license to the XLRS and XLRP programs and the option to license discovery programs for three additional indications at the time of clinical candidate selection.
If you could go back to the point in time of the company you first invested in with Lympro, not even knowing the game rules would change along the way (e.g. gold standard benchmark measurement), what would you do differently in hindsight? Keeping in mind no one has brought a Alzheimer Dx tool to market so there is no "how to" guide.
Should they have passed up ESS, put Eltoprazine on the shelf, sold Lympro early on for $10M? Wouldn't be much of a holding company or long-term business model.
GC did promis several important milestones would occur in Q3
I missed where he promised anything. You can believe that, but it doesn't make it true.
Expecting a milestones does not equal a promise or a guarantee except in upside down land. Last time I checked, you don't go to jail for missing milestone dates.
Your first point had everything to do with the proxy going out late. Can't fault the company on that. In hindsight, they probably could have called an audible and pushed the date out right away, but maybe they thought they were close and was worth the risk moving forward.
Your other two points come down to which is greater. The dilution or the increasing asset value. The only question remains, do they sell something, partner or continue to hold for the gold.
Reminds me of a chicken. How long does the company hold.
The game of chicken, also known as the hawk-dove game or snowdrift game, is an influential model of conflict for two players in game theory. The principle of the game is that while each player prefers not to yield to the other, the worst possible outcome occurs when both players do not yield.
Your first point had everything to do with the proxy going out late. Can't fault the company on that. In hindsight, they probably could have called an audible and pushed the date out right away, but maybe they thought they were close and was worth the risk moving forward.
Your other two points come down to which is greater. The dilution or the increasing asset value. The only question remains, do they sell something, partner or continue to hold for the gold.
Reminds me of a chicken. How long does the company hold.
The game of chicken, also known as the hawk-dove game or snowdrift game, is an influential model of conflict for two players in game theory. The principle of the game is that while each player prefers not to yield to the other, the worst possible outcome occurs when both players do not yield.
The majority of shareholders with a long-term view have weighed in less than 30 days ago. I assume they are not panicking because of the value of the assets the holding company owns. Those that did panic, likely have sold and moved on.
I've already posted what ESS and the other assets are worth. A sale of ESS along would be a high multiple of the market cap today. No one saw ESS purchase coming and many said there was no way the company would close the deal.
The company has an exciting "de-risked" pipeline. If they only had one asset, then I'd be panicking.
SAN FRANCISCO and GENEVA, Sept. 3, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Amarantus BioScience Holdings, Inc. (OTCQX:AMBS), a biotechnology company developing therapeutic and diagnostic product candidates in orphan indications and neurology, announced that at its 2015 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held yesterday in New York, New York, the stockholders approved the election of Gerald Commissiong, Dr. John Commissiong, Robert Harris, Donald Huffman, Dr. David Lowe, and Dr. Joseph Rubinfeld to the Amarantus Board of Directors,
Did your lawyer recommend you keep posting on the message board, creating fake IDs, calling into Shareholder meeting pretending to be a stock analyst, posting lies on a message board and making defamatory comments. All public record even though you deleted some.
Not saying that to make you defensive, but usually lawyers may be a little risk adverse to those type of things.
At least we know why you and a few others have been 24x7 on this hoping to do a smear campaign to blackmail the company.
The irony is if you sold out, put the money into a lawyer and the stock goes up to $45 next month.
I understand that but what happens if pps goes down 100%. They have to issue twice as many shares.
That's the risk you take making the deal. No different than if you get in a IPO and there is a 6 month lock up. It's not like your strike price is guaranteed, insured, etc. and you get twice as many shares if the sp tanks. There is no readjustment or oops I goofed clause that any of us know about.
Those shares are kept in escrow and should be out sometime don't know when.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA and GENEVA, SWITZERLAND – January 12, 2015 - Amarantus BioScience Holdings, Inc. (OTCQB: AMBS), a biotechnology company focused on the development of novel diagnostic tests in neurology and therapeutic products in the areas of neurology, psychiatry, ophthalmology and regenerative medicine, announced that it has acquired DioGenix, Inc. DioGenix will be merged into Amarantus Diagnostics as a foundational asset of a growing neuro-diagnostic business.
The shares of Amarantus common stock being issued to DioGenix, may, upon the request of Amarantus, be made subject to lock-up agreements precluding sale of such shares for up to 180 days.
Those were issued 100 mil @ 0.08 pps. Now they have to issue additional 8 times shares to Diogenix alone due to pps decline.
Not sure I follow. They got the 100M shares 8 months ago.
The internet is filled with cases where a message board poster felt they were immune to the law and could say anything about a person no matter how untrue. Opens themselves up for some major pain.
'Anonymous' Posters to Pay $13 Million for Defamatory Comments
"You can't post anonymous lies on the Internet without suffering the consequences."
You didn't say how many of the additional 1B were actually used for what. Some may have the impression that they were all used which is far from the truth.
If we bought $34M of 3 recent assets and the market cap is $17M than either the company is much smarter than the emotional retail investor or a bunch of chumps. If the people believe the latter, then they should have sold while they are ahead when the first acquisition was announced. If they spent $34M on $340M of assets, then good job. Not as great as Vivek, but he has his Mom helping out.
they don't have the money - nor the means in which to obtain it if they remain on the OTCBB
This is a holding company. At anytime they could sell an asset to fund the others. The question is, how long do you hold out (i.e. why take x today when someone will pay you ... down the road.) Longer you hold, the more unnerving it can get.
One thing is for sure. If you held this long, you're likely to hold a little longer and this will all be a mute point. Just keep in mind. What's the biggest mistake in investment. It's getting out too soon.
Thanks for posting. You got some very worked up here.
So you have a young CEO in his 20's, with no BIO experience, that is running a company with 10 employees, and get this, two of which are his Mom and Brother and he buys undervalued assets and turns around and IPO's them for a exponential gain. What ever you do, don't mention what nationality he is or what country he's from.
In United States business law, a forward-looking statement or safe harbor statement is a statement that cannot sustain itself as merely a historical fact. A forward-looking statement predicts, projects, or uses future events as expectations or possibilities. These statements can often be misleading, as they can be mistaken for factual statements, while they are actually speculation.
We have done an extensive and exhaustive survey of the institutional investment community and they have resoundingly indicated that in order for them to buy shares of a Company in the market, the Company’s common shares must be listed on a national exchange with a healthy ratio of outstanding shares to authorized shares. We have surveyed the landscape of OTC-only listed companies and have not identified any biotechnology companies with $1B+ valuation that have significant liquidity. We believe the reason for this is because the pool of capital on the OTC is insufficient to support the liquidity of a $1B+ market cap company, as approximately 95% of institutions are prohibited from investing in stocks that are not listed on a national exchange, and of those that are allowed to invest, most cannot invest in penny stocks. This is the reason why we believe it is important to up list to a national exchange in the near-term, so that our shareholders can benefit from an appreciation in the institutional investment interest in Amarantus.
With that being said, we recognize that it is not optimal to up list from a position of weakness, and therefore we will only consider an up list from a position of strength while the Company is making good progress in the market. We believe the milestones we’ve outlined above – for the end of 2014 alone – will put us in that position. However, if we do not believe we have achieved sufficient shareholder value creation, we will consider delaying the up list until such time as the market recognizes our true value.
With all repetition posts, questions, name calling, etc. it's hard to separate out the issues, having a discussion or take someone seriously. But I'll give it a shot. Straight question:
Can can think of five ways off the top of my head. Replacing the CEO isn't one of them. People would just find the next thing to complain about.
It matters little in what I think nor do I want to be a monday morning quarterback. You were at the shm. What questions did you ask? Was this one of them?
Back in 2010 when Regenicin announced the deal with Lonza the stock popped to $2.20 and a market cap of $185K. That was at the time Dr. Joseph Rubinfeld joined the Board of Directors. After that, the company ran into all sorts of issues.
Fast forward 5 years. What's the product now worth with the litigation cleared up and all that has transpired since that date: DoD backing, ODD, IND, Phase 2 trial starting?
Pharma-economics (Savings) for burns >50% only: Low End: (500 Patients) X ($10K Savings/day) X (60 days) = $300M High End: (3500 Patients) X ($15K Savings/day) X (120 days) = $6.3B
June 19, 2015 - 2015 Impact Investor Conference
18:05 - "The most important thing about this asset is it as a wealth of human efficacy data that has been out there and the key opinion leading physicians love this technology. We're talking about 3 out former past presidents of the American Burn Association are going to be involved in this 10 patient phase 2 clinical study and we think there may be some means we can get an accelerated pathway from a market perspective."
20:00 - " Near term commercial opportunity . There is no competition in terms of technology that have both layers of own skin. This is the ownly technology out there. We think in the US it's a $500M market opportunity not to mention other things diabetic foot ulcers, burns that are less than 50%, 30%, as well as ultimately some kind of cosmetic opportunity..."
June 16, 2015 - BIO International Convention at 2:30 pm ET
15:00 - "We believe this program will significantly mitigate enterprise risk as well as expose us to tremendous upside because of the data that has been produced since the physician sponsored study that is publicly available ."
11/19/2014 - AMBS: ASTUTE DEAL BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHOT ON GOAL FOR AMARANTUS BIO
11/18/2014 - Amarantus Business Update Conference Call "And with ESS-W, we feel as though we have found just a tremendous opportunity."
4/10/2014 - Development of the Mechanical Properties of Engineered Skin Substitutes After Grafting to Full-Thickness Wounds
11/23/2010 - DoD awards Regenicin and Lonza $18 million to develop PermaDerm for severe burns
8/18/2010 - Regenicin Completes Acquisition of Worldwide Exclusive Know-How Technology License from Lonza Walkersville
Additionally, in 2010 Vectoris/Regenicin was valued at One Billion, Eight Hundred Million Dollars ($1,800,000,000.00). However, as of July 2012, Regenicin was valued at One Hundred Fifty-Seven Million Dollars ($157,000,000.00). Accordingly, Regenicin has been damaged in the amount of One Billion, Six Hundred Forty-Three Million Dollars ($1,643,000,000.00)
RAO was also on the July agenda. Meeting minutes should be posted in a day or two. Assuming this is Amarantus which I do, it's a good sign they are back on the agenda for the following meeting vs. being sent packing.
RP seemed rather straight forward. A number of companies have submitted for RP orphan over the years. I haven't see the same activity for RAO. Actually none, but haven't spent a very long time looking. Two orphans on MANF would be incredible. One is great. Two is even better. I already posted the deal AGTC got with two orphans in ophthalmology with one reaching clinical (pipeline -> http://www.agtc.com/products)
Here's the July meeting:
Committee for Orphan Medicinal Products (COMP) Draft agenda for the meeting on 14-16 July 2015
2.2.13. - EMA/OD/079/15 Treatment of retinal artery occlusion Action: For adoption Documents tabled: Draft Summary report
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