Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Frustrating as usual. Hopefully mgmt starts their plan to get the price more in line with potential. When I spoke with IR 5 weeks ago, they acknowledged the impact of the warrants on price. Now that the warrant BS is almost over, maybe we'll see some progress. I think mgmt has been sitting on their hands until after the warrants are exercised. Me thinks Dec 12 is big in that Thorpe is one of two keynote speakers at a three day conference. Check the lineup in the agenda. Some pretty big hitters like Amgen etc. Do you think the conference folks want the keynote address "Bavi was safe and well tolerated in Phase 1" or do they want some red meat? IR also said don't be too excited about the liver conference Oct 30, wait for the repeat dose data. Maybe we'll hear something Dec 12.
http://www.ibclifesciences.com/D3173/2099.xml
The mechanics of the warrants is very simple. Given that the warrants were probably granted to the investors whose MO is to make a quick return on investment and not hold stock, the warrant holder shorts (ie sells) the stock at $1.30 (or whatever) and covers the short position with the warrants when exercised. The investor pockets $.30 per share or $405,000 for this transaction. This was probably a decent pop relative to the original financing amount on this deal. Remember we were dealing with pawn shop type players vis a vis the investment banking world.
The warrants were issued some time ago so it has nothing to do with mgmt right now. They were in a difficult financing position and the warrants are what they are. I think mgmt is waiting for the warrants to be exercised before the next pr blitz. Why do it now and just have the warrants slam the price with no benefit to PPHM. They get $1.00 per share whether the stock price is $1.30 or $5.00. Why line the pockets of the financiers? I've spoken to mgmt about being stuck in first gear because of the past financings. They are aware and hopefully things will be different over the next few months. Thorpe is the keynote speaker in San Diego on Dec 12. I hope Santa at the least stuffs a stocking.
Jazz,
Where do you think bavi fits relative to the chart? Also, my guess is bavi approval odds should be better in that it is a second/third generation mab (ie some of the bugs have been worked out on earlier versions of other mabs)
Thx
I remain very bullish on the company. I won't post other details of my conversation but I believe the next six months could be very rewarding for those with patience. All IMO. Big on Tarvy seems to be plugged in.
I spoke with someone at IR several weeks ago. I mentioned the Oct 30 presention as a key date. The response was that Oct 30 was important but the real value drivers will be repeat dose data and combo therapy data.
I looked it up the other day from the annual report. Sometime within the first two weeks in Nov (Can't remember the date). Total shares 1,350,000 at $1.00 per share.
In regard to mgmt holding back the PR's and media blitz, could they be waiting until options related to milestones are granted? Or are they waiting for real tangible results?
Thanks for correction. My error on Thorpe when Godofsky was mentioned. The point made to me was Oct 30 presentation was good but don't get expectations up. Real value is in repeat dose and combo therapy where bavi is expected to perform well. Thorpe speaks in Dec. In summary, be patient cause good things may be on the way.
Very frustrated. Talked with someone very close to company. Next 4 months should be worthwhile. Thorpe talk on Oct 30 good but not the big value driver. hep C repeat dose study is what will drive value. Combo therapy trial out of India will be other key driver. BP wants to see results. As well as investment banks and institutional investors. I will sit tight until then.
Big on Tarvy
What's your take on the APTT and PTT issue that is being discussed?
TIA
I had heard that mgmt retained the services of an investment bank earlier in the year. One of the tasks was to determine the value of the company.
I don't know the value. I used $5 as an example of how much an acquirer can save by trying to contain the price thru shorting, bashers, etc. The potential for bavi could be much higher but to get there would require much more funding and time to go thru the trials.
Hedge Funds. IMO, They will do the heavy lifting including shorting. Also, if an agreement is in the works, the downside is covered in the event the price takes off. Reporting? What reporting for hedge funds? If BP can buy the company for $5.00 per share vs $10.00, they save $1 bil. With the constant downside pressure of the shorts, it frustrates the retail investors so at the end of the day, $5 looks good. All IMO but with a realistic view of how corrupt our markets are and how worthless the SEC is.
Why can't they develop all the potential uses for bavi now? Cause they ain't got the funds or manpower. They need to pick their best horse and ride it to the next base before they get tagged out.
Speculation on my part and relative to my estimate that FDA would require much more given three types of cancers with three different chemo treatments. Do the math on how may samples for each type.
Exactly. Twelve patients doesn't do diddly. Unless it's a special audience and the audience spells out what they need. I also think the patients will be more mainstream and geared towards answering "does this work in real situations" and not the worst of the worst patients that failed all other treatment.
KT,
Excellent summary. I'm in the camp that mgmt has something cooking and they have to earn the valuation thru milestones. I view the India trials as a key benchmark if my theory is true. I think the mgmt boys are tired of the financing battles so prove bavi up sooner than later. Also, say a deal was negotiated as far as value (ie $1 Bil market cap); the more shares an acquirer gets on the cheap, the more they can pay on the end price which is where the mgmt boys would be selling. I could be very wrong but things are not adding up. And who would be foolish to be so short with limited upside on shorting a $1.30 stock and huge downside risk at this juncture?
I spoke with King about six months ago and he indicated the next phase is creating value thru trials. The context of the comment was a sale of the company. This is their chance to cash in. Thorpe is the engine and he doesn't work for them. You can't ride that pony forever so cash in while you can. All IMHO.
Mgmt made some comments yesterday that there was a disconnect to the price and fundementals of the company. This is true and mgmt can only blame themselves. I also think mgmt benefits from low prices while their "milestones" are reached. Although I believe in the technology, I have lost confidence in mgmt's ability to deliver. IMO, the company should be sold as soon as the data is available to get to the next level of value. Listening to King read his script was like listening to an eighth grade remedial reading lesson.
When mgmt was asked about shorting and price, the response was bothersome as to the laughing etc. My suspicion is that a deal is already in the works or mgmt knows some big players want in and at a discount. I also suspect mgmt benefits from a low stock price while these "milestones" are achieved (of which mgmt has some control of the timing). Is there anything in the 10k's or otherwise which spells out how and when options are issued and at what price?
Things don't add up. Potential keeps moving forward and stock price moves backward.
First, Big on Tarvy is on target. Thanks BOT. Second, mgmt appeared to be a little cavalier on the stock price and the shorting situation. My guess is mgmt knows what's going on and I think they know accumulation is going on. I heard thru a very connected banker that mgmt met with an investment bank earlier this year. One of the issues talked about was getting more institutional ownership. With the huge float, it doesn't take a lot to push this thing around and discourage retail investors.
I also think the company is positioning itself for sale next year, thus the reason for advancing the trials, All IMO.
I'm hoping Godofsky has some good things to say in October. My bet is that he does.
This was posted by Westjitter on RB. Excellent summary IMO.
Things that makes sense, and things that don't make sense!
What doesn't make sense??
1.)10 million shorts on a $1 stock...pulleez give me a break.
2.)PPHM doing virtually nothing to support the share price.
3.)Breakthrough results with a completely novel non toxic approach in treating virus'and cancer albeit pre-clincal and ph.1 and trading in the $1 range.
4.)A full batch of employees(90+)working at Avid and continually advertising for more....like are they all having coffee all day??? Who is paying for the doughnuts??
5.)One of the top SRB boards in the country if not the world.....sitting on the board of a $1 stock...pulleez give me a break.
6.)ES remaining as Chairman of the BOD of a $1 company that is going down in flames....pulleez....check his resume and credentials...he knows the hedge fund game as well as micro cap turnaround game....likes the 20 baggers+. Worth hundred of millions...why is he here?? DOESN'T MAKE SENSE!
I could go on and on of all the anomalies at PPHM, but now let's look at what makes sense.
1.)The only reason a large fund or equity shorts a $1 stock is because they are accumulating shares having already made an agreement to finance and/or partner with this company.....NOTHING ELSE MAKES SENSE! I am certain the deals hinges on final results of our 1B which we will hear about in the next 30 days.
2.)They are not supporting the share price because a deal is done in principle. That does make sense(although it may pis-s off some of the longs)
3.)The PPHM BOD and management know what they have in Bavituximab...results will be released to support share price in due course(30 days)
4.)Avid employees and new hiring....the only thing that makes sense is that they are producing a ton of BAVI for ....trials...flu...etc., for coming contracts and undisclosed contracts in principle.
5.)SRB board...we attracted the best because of the prestige of being involved in a novel approach to fighting cancer and virus'...oh yeah...these guys have seen a lot more results than we have...they also know what we got.
6.)ES remaining on as PPHM chmn of bod...think about it. Would he stick around if he wasn't sure of what we have in BAVI?? Remember that Bavi has been around in research circles for years. With all the lawsuits and liability these days directed at BOD members...why would he stick around to see PPHM go down in flames, because he would get his A-ss sued off. Yes my friends, yes...ES too knows what we have.
Again I could go on but I will leave it at that. We will get some major news before our shareholders meeting that will give our share price a boost.....Why??? BECAUSE THAT IS THE ONLY THING THAT MAKES ANY SENSE!!!
Big On Tarvy
If everything is hunky dory with the programs, any idea as to why the price is getting slammed? Very frustrating. My hunch is accumulation by some hedge funds. Is everything on track?
Thanks
Short position
Sonic Solutions went thru this process back in the third qtr 2002. They make DVD authoring software and the space was just starting to get hot with DVD recorders replacing the VCR. Over a four month period, institutional interest increased dramatically while short interest increased. Bashers were showing up on raging bull and yahoo using the FUD MO. I was able to talk to the CEO after leaving messages for a week. He told me everything was on track and don't pay attention to the message boards. I doubled my position and made a huge profit.
I think the same thing is happening here. It doesn't take a lot of dough to push this thing around. With Godofsky upping the presentation to an oral presentation at the Liver meeting, I don't think he has bad news to deliver. Somebody wants in and they don't want to pay retail. Everytime it starts to run, it gets slammed. All IMO.
Do some DD on Mallette Capital. Bought 500k shares. Quin Mallette runs a biotech hedge fund and is a Duke med school grad. Wonder if any ties to Duke on the HIV front.
My guess is that whoever shorted has a prearranged exit strategy to cover losses while the acquirer gains by buying a company for much less than actual value.
Italian Trader
I agree with you that PPHM is under accumulation and by a big player (or several). I think they are using the Russell rebalance day as a smokscreen. My guess is only 5 to 7 mil shares were needed for rebalance. As you indicated, they probably shorted the stock to get the position because as you said, nobody had 23m shares on June 30. My guess is the acquirer is using hedge funds to get the shares at a prearranged price. Unfortunately hedge funds operate with impunity.
Here are events/actions that support accumulation.
The poison pill by PPHM. King has said several times BP and BB have shown interest in PPHM. I spoke with King on a couple of occasions and he said the value driver is human data and they will not sell out until the value is obtained.
Institutional interest has been increasing along with short position.
The news has been positive and PPHM is on the verge of a tech breakthrough with human data.
I also think mgmt is aware of what is happening, they really can't do anything and they want institutions to own the stock.
As I said earlier, this is just like SNIC several years ago. The stock hit $8 than was shorted to $3.50 while short interest increased and institutional interest increased. The bashers came out of the woodwork all against a backdrop of great news. The same thing is happening here. All IMO.
Be patient and accumulate if you have the
Big on Tarvy
How about an update? It's been frustrating lately. I think someone wants us to be frustrated.
My guess is the stock is under accumulation and the PPHM boys know it. At the end of the day, the more stock the acquirer gets on the cheap means a higher price at the time of reckoning. On the final day of the Russell rebalance, 23 million shares traded. My guess was 8 to 10 mil shares were needed for Russell rebalance based on the previous year holdings. IMO, this is under accumulation and the big boy(s) does not want to pay retail or have the price rise while under accumulation. SNIC had the same pattern when their tech was finally discovered. Institutional ownership increased at the same time short interest increased and bashers came out of the woodwork. All against the backdrop of great news. Be patient and you will be rewarded. All IMO.
I don't think management wants this to run yet. My guess is they get more options under their belts at a low price.
Today's Action
suggests a put. How can you have close to 12 mil shares traded on blockbuster news and trade flat? A put is on the way. Very frustrated with management's inability to attract better financing. Also disappointed in SEC which is equivalent to FEMA. Hedgies and offshores operate with impunity.
I have a feeling mgmt doesn't want the stock price to move until they are ready, i.e. stock options related to milestones. I could be wrong but there are too many cozy relationships with financiers/directors etc. With all the potential the company has, why are we doing slam bam thankyou mam financing on quarter to quarter basis? I feel like I'm at a laundrymat waiting to put another quarter in the dryer.
Management needs to be a little more transparent, IMO.
Market Cap should be about 267 mil based on latest sec filing which stated 179,353,239 shares outstanding. Someone was trying to tube this thing at the close. I show AH trade of 40k at $1.57. Hopefully we make the Russell.
Look at the chart. See the pattern. Up than hammered. At least mgmt gets some mileage in raising cash off the pr's.
PR 3/7/05 Tarvacin Breast Cancer 3/11/05 3.1 mil share put
PR 6/22/05 Tarvacin antiviral 6/24/05 8 mil share put
PR 11/22/05 Avid contract 11/25/05 8 mil share put
PR 4/3/06 Tarvacin breast cance 4/4/06 4 mil share put
Any bets on a put in the next week?
KT
Good analysis. My guess is we just had another put or are about to get one. IMO King needs to keep the cash tank as full as he can for the next 12 months. Also, My guess is cash needs are increasing with all the avenues available for bavi. You never know when the market could tank and liquidity dries up for spec companies.
I've been invested in PPHM for several years. We are at the crossroads now. I only hope that mgmt looks out for the shareholders and not themselves at the expense of the shareholders. Would mgmt consider a LBO and take the company private? Would they withhold data to further their cause? I am watching closely. I am also disappointed at the lack of response of IR.
On another note, we are close to the Russell rebalance date. Hopefully mgmt will not blow it like they did last year. If we get added, there will be some buying pressure in June.