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Don't forget Shrotker became more confident about ownership of mill. Anything else?
sam
Shrotker,
This is imo great for future direction of stock price. Maybe this explains partly why you were so angry with Rawnoc. Rawnoc is very sharp, but he enjoys bashing and particularly since he distrusts Matin.
I hope you continue to read the board in order to be aware of defencies in information.
Can we direct future questions to you or to whom and how regarding Veltex in your official capacity?
sam
Doubloon,
I am guessing you are using based on $40 oil, the $1.19 ebitda estimate which includes acquisition.
Excluding acquisition, I believe they say ebitda of $11 million for year based on 22M = 50 cents/share.
How does one get net income off $1.19 ebitda which is probably going to be conservative as far as we know?
Just a totatally uneducated guess of 60 cents/share.
Established p/e is perhaps 15-18 and depends on reserves.
If for this company I picked a pe of 20 on the 60 cents, then $12.
Lots and lots of guesses on my part.
sam
sam
How much would net income be versus an ebitda of $1.70? Also should this be valued more by earnings or reserves?
Actually ranking 3 ways, which is best to evaluate by
a net income
b ebitda
c reserves
What is typical mulitple by ebitda(think 2005)?
I think 30-50X for net income(think 2005) but net is hard to guess and perhaps least valuable measurement.
sam
Hello Mushroomman,
Be prepared for an interesting time on this one. It is a gamble, for buys don't pay over $1.20 in my opinion.
sam
Shrotker,
Did you contact company about fax?
sam
Hubbynubby,
I missed info inside that page, what did you see?
sam
Rawnoc, Fax straight? Yes, no, don't know?
I enjoyed sentence 2 eom
Rawnoc,
How locked is the first question? Second is there a way to siphon the funds off indirectly, ie sell at cost to U.S. operation?
sam
How will timeline play out for May 31st. News on this before or after?
sam
I consider needing government permission to move funds a negative. Not as bad as money is on moon, whether ultimate value deserves the tiniest of discounts or a very significant discount I don't know.
The most important point though is if this is a legitimate enterprise, a vertical operation known as Veltex, then this is not fully valued yet in my opinion. To be legitimate the rapid share increase will have to come to a stop.
sam
Shrotker,
What you know about mill is big news, as that was major source of confusion. Can we move funds?
If so then this is a company I predict will have $45-55 Million revenue for 2005.
sam
Nobody knows the ultimate value of this eom
No room to bash the pr imho eom
Shroker,
I am assuming even pink Veltex must report buying on open market for insiders and also report buys contributing to treasury as well. I also am thinking Matin has not done any form of buying.
However, considering that he had 1 million shares 6 months ago and probably more now, I believe some of 5.5 million went to him why should he feel the need to buy?
His friends, that is another question.
Like it or not this is not a way to determine the future value of this company in my opinion, excepting if he had bought then that is a positive indicator, as is no indicator.
sam
Since this is not a reporting company, would insider buys be known or sells either?
sam
INVEST1980,
The biggest focal appoint on criticising Matin is his credibility. That is a nice way to put it. Clearly he has a very bad track record.
That is why the reported orders last week giving names and dollar figures is very important. This is hopefully a reason to believe somewhat. For big orders to come from other companies, this has to lead one to think that Veltex is not a complete scam and really does have potential.
What though is the company ultimately worth. I don't think any of us can know at this time. It is a reasonable speculation whenever it can be bought under $1.
sam
Invest1980,
Just the opposite. Miamimice claimed in my opinion there was really NOTHING in Bangladesh. Then there has always been the question, what is the status on owning it?
We have made progress if there is something substantial over there and we own it, but the final doubt then is, are we cut off from getting money out of there which is maybe still a smoky situation but not Miamimice version.
sam
Shrotker,
Rawnoc's observation about money made in Bangladesh is an excellent point. Could you bring this question up with Matin as to transferability and why we should be happy if they can't transfer money?
By the way if you got an answer to every important question you should be Saint Shrotker.
sam
Was an imminent Disney decision hanging over their head at that point in time?
sam
I hope it is not a catch-22 where this company needs outside help but outside help doesn't want to take a chance without Disney renewal and Disney does not want to take a chance without their getting outside help.
Still looks like guessing.
sam
Am I missing the picture on peep?
Also, are those who like what they see going by the view that Trudy can make almost $10 Million revenue with its limited means and thus a better capitalized company can expect $25 Million revenue with $2.5 million profit in year.
2.5 mil expected * 8 (pe buyout)/ 450 mil would mean buyout of 4.4+ cents per share minus a little debt for 4 cents/share.
Is this more how others are thinking? What would be the risk to this thinking by the buyer or do you think buyer would be Disney itself?
sam
Gang,
I think the company will do everything it can to succeed and it might.
I will reveal part of my ignorance. Wasn't Peep initiated fall 2004? What do I not know?
sam
Gator, I hope you are right. It was a better quarter than the previous but has the growth topped out? If you were Disney, wouldn't you rather do business with somebody with more capital?
Seems like a quick rescue from the outside is the thing needed. Perhaps might happen, but maybe not. Seems like a gamble.
sam
The report looks disappointing to me. I figure only with a renewal with Disney that this might be worth 3 cents to somebody possibly and that does not look sure. Is it sure?
Is that the right way to look at this or not?
Also I thought the quarter reported would beat revenue for the previous quarter handily, not barely.
sam
Good point, but I think down to $200 I understand
I would like to see announcement on every deal over $100K eom
Pual,
I agree there needs to be regular, accurate reporting. Money should no longer be wasted on futile pumping services. Matin pisses people off with his second-rate approach to publicity if nothing else.
As to professional services the cost has to be evaluated but if there really is several million in profit and he can get his hands on it (definitely some ifs) then a few good salaries might be in order.
sam
More press releases like this and in addition if the rapid share increase can stop, if we get both this will start looking more and more legitimate.
sam
At this point I don't believe anybody knows what the recent 5.5 million shares issued has delivered for us. One can only speculate.
It could mean real assets or money in Matin's pocket or somewhere in between. This announced purchase either went to Bangladesh or United States, but I am assuming it went to one so a significant operation of some size exists somewhere.
Very unlikely to be a $100,000 front operation as Miamimice claimed. I believe that even if the money is going to Bangladesh we own some percentage of that but I am not confident about it or how it works.
sam
You should ask Matin if you could help with press releases. I know you could do a better job.
sam
Hapslap,
I agree with the idea that anybody would be an idiot not to be suspicious about this company and it deserves a low price but the heading of the press release claims sales more than 25% greater than 2004 posted sales results. Unless it is another Matin trick 2004 posted sales results I believe to be $41 Million.
sam
Yes you might be right about that Hapslap but you can't say anything bad about the announced deal. I sent an email to that company for confirmation. I am waiting.
sam
Cal/Hapslap,
For maybe the first time other than mysterious Miamimice I see unfounded bashing as this is not the same old press release.
That is a fact.
sam
Hapslap,
There is always valid reason to criticize their press releases but this one does have substance within.
sam
If after 20 years in surfing business this company likes Veltex, what is your interpretation people?
If this is true as reported, chance of scam seems much more remote at this point to me.
sam
If press release is accurate which at this point I assume it is, then even Miamimice should be at loss for words but probably not, he would say as soon as the company sees Veltex is fraud ...
For others, does anybody manage to put a negative spin on?
sam
Growth,
What is your interpretation of 2003 audit?
sam
What was learned if anything from 2003 audit?
Maybe nothing, as we don't knew enough about predicting future revenues and earnings and from where.
Mills are still not clear. Share increases are not addressed.
On the other hand, can one believe this company may have large profit margins on sales? Opinions on that?
A gamble definitely. Hopeless, that I don't know.
$5 in 12 months, my guess is 1 in 200.
sam