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Yes I was. I sweated it out and was able to talk to the CEO a couple of times during the onslaught. He told me everything was on plan and not to worry. The message boards were slammed with bashers. I doubled up and made a huge profit. I sold too early at $15 per share.
I think the same is happening here. I have done the same thing in terms of talking to mgmt (as recently as this week). From what I understand, everything is on plan. I have also added more.
I talked to someone in the know today. Don't want to be coy but if I revealed my source I would be cut off. After my conversation I added more. I hear good things are about to happen. Someone is shaking the tree. Reminds me of the SNIC days.
What's the difference if both are subject to share price and the lower the share price when granted, management benefits?
The reason I said that's all I know is cause that's all I know. The person I met is very busy and was aware of the meeting with the portfolio analyst. The executive asked the question regarding investing their own money in PPHM and the response from the portfolio manager was he liked the stock "long term". I do not know what long term means to the mgr. From what I understand, the mgr is technically savvy so he could be seeing what we're seeing now.
As for when will the tide turn? IMO when India data is ready. It's hard for me to believe the price reflects bavi potential, Cotara, and to a lesser extent Avid. If the recent short interest number is up and institutional interest is up, we have a SNIC redo. Mallette, IMO, is noise because his fund is so small relative to others, he trades in and out of things to tweak is returns.
I also think the stock is under accumulation and is being shorted to keep the price down for accumulation. IMO mgmt is aware of this and is going along for the ride because they get option grants when milestones are met. The lower the stock price when milestones are achieved, the more money they make.
I had breakfast with an executive with a major fund that has a healthcare fund. Her healthcare portfolio manager met with PPHM mgmt while PPHM was in New York in December. The healthcare port mgr likes PPHM long term. That's all I got.
As I said months ago, PPHM reminds me of Sonic Solutions when Sonic was "being discovered". Sonic had the software for DVD authoring and was clearly the major player. As the DVD recorder story started to unfold, Sonic stock started to go up, was shorted ad nauseum all while institutional ownership increased and bashers showed up on the message boards. It took a couple of quarters but the fever finally broke and the stock really took off. PPHM reminds me of those days. I think accumulation is well under way at the expense of weak hands and with the help of shorts on behalf of the accumulators. It's too bad the SEC is worthless cause this shorting of small caps is hurting the entire economy. Another story for another day.
Retired with a lot of money. He recognized the company is in a rut because of the lack of institutional interest and coverage. The share price was the key factor. It's a catch 22.
A retired investment banker friend is somewhat knowledgeable of the company. As for institutional interest and brokerage coverage, he said the share price below $5 hurts the company. Most analysts could not recommend what's basically considered a penny stock. His solution would be to do a reverse split. He invested in PPHM and is somewhat frustrated in management's lack of financial savvy.
Action today smells like another PIPE. When I talked to IR just after the holidays, they said they wanted to get a financing behind them. Getting tired of the same old crap. This reminds me of the movie Ground Hog Day with Bill Murray. I want to jump out of the building or punch the insurance salesman. Oh well.
IMO the news confirms what King has said before, Bavi's most effective use will be as a combo therapy. I look at it like a UPS delivery to a specific address versus mass mailing. The drug goes where it's needed. I think the safety profile comparison as compared to IFN is key in today's announcemnt. Now we need to find out what drug is most effective in combination HCV treatment.
I spoke with IR just after India trials were announced. Someone (BP) was holding their hands walking them thru the process.
I don't know the answer. I can only speculate on financing options and why. 1. The data's bad so finance now. I don't think that's the case. 2. Do a small financing now to keep the acct's and cfo happy. 3. Get a shelf ready and do the financing as you release news. You get a pop in share price but immediate suppression with the financing news and dilution. Shareholders and markets are tired of this story. 4. Release the news and announce a partner deal with BP where the invest $30 mil for x shares. I think whatever road they take gets them enough dough for a year to get through the next plateau of milestones.
I don't know the answer but something is brewing.
As I said earlier, I spoke with mgmt earlier in the year. Mgmt wants to get the financing out of the way before getting the data out. I was expecting the financing to be completed by now but it was a guess on my part. With the shelf reg paperwork, it looks like it's in progress.
My confidence is not necessarily with mgmt, more with the technology (Thorpe et al). If bavi works, I'm done working. Overall mgmt is starting to "get it". IMO they made some tactical errors, particularly on the finance side. We'll see over the next six months. I look for a financing deal before the next move up. From what I understand, mgmt wants a healthy cash balance to keep the ball moving forward. What has hurt the company in the past is one step up with good news followed by two steps back because of a PIPEs. The market is tired of that cycle as well.
What you think, what I think and what mgmt thinks are not the same. I just reported what I heard, not what I wished.
I posted a little over a week ago and the post was deleted or censored before it made the board. I had a conversation with mgmt about financing and timing of the data. The post provided the cliff notes of what was going on.
Time will tell who is on target. I'm very confident in my prognosis. I also think the company is prudent in what they are doing. Don't like the price action, but added more. Once the PIPE is out of the way, the party starts.
See the after hours trades. IMO this confirms a PUT is in play for the 5.8 mil shares.
From the last 10Q for the quarter ending Oct 31 06, the company has 5,893,000 shares available from the last filing. They were restricted until Jan 2 on any additional financings. They also state that they have enough cash to operate thru July 07. Given that the quarter ends Jan 31, do you think they want to say they have enough cash for three more months? I don't think so. The last couple of weeks smell like a put.
I don't think they used up all the available shares from last filing. My guess is they have about 6 mil available.
Right now I'd have to say it's a big fart.
I've talked to King and Lytle several times. Keeping working cash available is important. I don't think they wait until the last minute because data results could be delayed. Again my guess is they top off the tank one last time with the slam bam thank UU mam boys with the expectation they have enough cash to go one more year without BP's help. I don't like it but you gotta do what you gotta do. Remember a lot of small biotechs got the financing window closed after 9/11.
My guess is they do a put to keep the accountants from issuing a going concern statement is a quarterly report. They need to keep a year's worth off operating cash in the til.
Me thinks a put is in progress. Me also thinks mgmt is about to release some milestone news and get their options on the cheap.
Thanks. I'm not pleased with mgmt's ability to hold their ground vis a vis stock price. If the story is so great, these guys aren't very good storytellers. That's a key part of successful management. As I mentioned a while back, a retired investment banker friend told me about about a meeting w/ bankers and mgmt. The comment was that mgmt is good from a technology standpoint but over their heads from a investment community standpoint. It's starting to show.
As of 9/30/06 Zimmer Lucas had a position of over 4 million shares. Zimmer Lucas was involved in a PIPE financing for PPHM in 2001 so they know a little about PPHM. I talked to a friend in the hedge fund industry about PPHM and he looked at the institutional interest. His comment was that the Zimmer Lucas folks were very sharp and they focused on utilities. My question is why would they invest outside their area of expertise? Are they involved in another PIPE?
Thanks BOT. Any idea as to how company funds itself for the next twelve months? I smell a put coming. Or is something bigger and better in the hopper.
Happy Holidays
I can live with bonuses based on milestones but part of the milestone would be stock price. If mgmt achieves all these great milestones but the price has not increased, than a key aspect of mgmt's job was incomplete, ie getting the story out. This is where guys like Carl Icahn earn their pay, doing a job that mgmt fails to do. I will do my best to communicate to mgmt my displeasure. I also talked to an investment banker very familiar with the company. The person expressed frustration in that mgmt is in over their heads when it comes to the financial side. A good example is the PIPE just before last years Russell rebalance when the company got booted when they missed by about $400,000. A very rookie mistake.
Very frustrated with PPHM mgmt on one aspect. IMO, they are not doing their job in having stock price match the potential of the company. Lytle admitted this on one of the recent CC's. I also believe they don't care about price because the lower the price is, the more mgmt benefits when they are awarded options based on milestone awards. I would like to see the criteria for the awards and have stock price as compared to previous quarters be part of the criteria. One can say a small cap is easy to push around. IMO, they are not getting the story out or they are not good at telling it (or they don't want it to be told until they get their options). It would not take that many institutional players to maintain the price. Mgmt needs to be held accountable for the poor performance.
AH large trades provides more evidence of a put in the making. Just calling it like I see it. Get it over with, put $5 mill in the bank. Ho Ho Ho type financing.
From what I hear, BP guided them thru the India process where BP had experience. Also, I've heard the India trials are for BP first and foremost, FDA second. BP wants too see the goods before they belly up to the bar.
No but I follow the company closely and have a substantial position. I have plotted a graph over the last three years of share price, volume, put price, put volume and major news. The company has historically done their puts at the same time as they released major news. This is one reason the stock price has failed to gain traction. In mgmt's defence, they were able to get the financing and move the number of shares for the type of slam bam financing they have done. I have talked to IR several times about how the financing has kept the stock price down (and they agree). I am hopeful we are within 6 months of breaking the cycle of destructive financing. I consider it a negative when they raise $6 mil and knock off $25 mil in market cap from the financing. At the same time I realize mgmt needs to keep the cash tank full to fund the next twelve months of operations.
After yesterday's action, I smell a put coming. Also, in the cc Lytle said they have enough cash to fund thru July. IMO, they need to keep topping off the cash tank until they pull the trigger with BP or BB. Otherwise the big boys smell weakness, cause a delay and than pounce when PPHM is weak. Another theory is mgmt already has a deal and they are letting BP accumulate on weakness. The more shares BP buys on the cheap, the higher end price. In any event, mgmt is not doing anything to support the price. I don't think they really care about the retail investor.
I don't have a problem with mgmt earning options. I do believe that there is no incentive to keep the stock price up until the options are granted. If the price of the company is not reflective of value, IMO mgmt is not getting the story out to the institutional crowd. I think their holding this pony back until they have their bets placed vis a vis option grants as milestones are achieved. I could be wrong. But I doubt it.
Why would mgmt jump the gun when they have all the options to earn via milestone achievements? Is the option award program/process public information? This could give clues to when mgmt pulls the trigger on any buyout or partner deal.
Bulldog, unlike Deal or No Deal, you can take the deal ie share price and sell at any time. I don't think mgmt wants the stock to run until they get the financing deal in place and sell into strength. Also, mgmt gets cheap options as milestones are reached. If they didn't have the goods they would have done a deal by now. I don't like it, I'll have to wait it out like everybody.
My best guess is company needs more dough and they are waiting for the data for the next financing. As BOT pointed out, they need to start swimming in the big pond. My guess is they are encouraged by the results so far and are willing to wait it out. Right now they are playing Deal or No Deal and they are in the position of knowing what the suitcases (trials) may contain. They keep hitting the no deal button cause the banker is lowballing them. Now's the time to hold out for the big score. I think mgmt knows the pawn shop financing gig is over. I wouldn't be surprised if they did one more slam bam thank UU mam financing to round go and collect $200 one last time.
I believe they can if they get approval from the last financiers. If they do the financing it will probably be with those folks anyway.
My guess is they do a small financing in the range of $5 to $8 mil before the qtr conference call. IMO they need to keep topping of the cash tank until they have the results to negotiate with BP on PPHM's terms.