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Lehman Expected to File for Bankruptcy Protection
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/14/lehman-to-file-for-bankruptcy-protection/
Fed’s Sunday Statement: Eligible Collateral Broadened
Here is the text of the Fed’s press release out late Sunday.
Release Date: September 14, 2008
For immediate release
The Federal Reserve Board on Sunday announced several initiatives to provide additional support to financial markets, including enhancements to its existing liquidity facilities.
“In close collaboration with the Treasury and the Securities and Exchange Commission, we have been in ongoing discussions with market participants, including through the weekend, to identify potential market vulnerabilities in the wake of an unwinding of a major financial institution and to consider appropriate official sector and private sector responses,” said Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. “The steps we are announcing today, along with significant commitments from the private sector, are intended to mitigate the potential risks and disruptions to markets.”
“We have been and remain in close contact with other U.S. and international regulators, supervisory authorities, and central banks to monitor and share information on conditions in financial markets and firms around the world,” Chairman Bernanke said.
The collateral eligible to be pledged at the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) has been broadened to closely match the types of collateral that can be pledged in the tri-party repo systems of the two major clearing banks. Previously, PDCF collateral had been limited to investment-grade debt securities.
The collateral for the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) also has been expanded; eligible collateral for Schedule 2 auctions will now include all investment-grade debt securities. Previously, only Treasury securities, agency securities, and AAA-rated mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities could be pledged.
These changes represent a significant broadening in the collateral accepted under both programs and should enhance the effectiveness of these facilities in supporting the liquidity of primary dealers and financial markets more generally.
Also, Schedule 2 TSLF auctions will be conducted each week; previously, Schedule 2 auctions had been conducted every two weeks. In addition, the amounts offered under Schedule 2 auctions will be increased to a total of $150 billion, from a total of $125 billion. Amounts offered in Schedule 1 auctions will remain at a total of $50 billion. Thus, the total amount offered in the TSLF program will rise to $200 billion from $175 billion.
The Board also adopted an interim final rule that provides a temporary exception to the limitations in section 23A of the Federal Reserve Act. It allows all insured depository institutions to provide liquidity to their affiliates for assets typically funded in the tri-party repo market. This exception expires on January 30, 2009, unless extended by the Board, and is subject to various conditions to promote safety and soundness.
Source: Federal Reserve
Fed’s Sunday Statement: Eligible Collateral Broadened
Here is the text of the Fed’s press release out late Sunday.
Release Date: September 14, 2008
For immediate release
The Federal Reserve Board on Sunday announced several initiatives to provide additional support to financial markets, including enhancements to its existing liquidity facilities.
“In close collaboration with the Treasury and the Securities and Exchange Commission, we have been in ongoing discussions with market participants, including through the weekend, to identify potential market vulnerabilities in the wake of an unwinding of a major financial institution and to consider appropriate official sector and private sector responses,” said Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. “The steps we are announcing today, along with significant commitments from the private sector, are intended to mitigate the potential risks and disruptions to markets.”
“We have been and remain in close contact with other U.S. and international regulators, supervisory authorities, and central banks to monitor and share information on conditions in financial markets and firms around the world,” Chairman Bernanke said.
The collateral eligible to be pledged at the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) has been broadened to closely match the types of collateral that can be pledged in the tri-party repo systems of the two major clearing banks. Previously, PDCF collateral had been limited to investment-grade debt securities.
The collateral for the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) also has been expanded; eligible collateral for Schedule 2 auctions will now include all investment-grade debt securities. Previously, only Treasury securities, agency securities, and AAA-rated mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities could be pledged.
These changes represent a significant broadening in the collateral accepted under both programs and should enhance the effectiveness of these facilities in supporting the liquidity of primary dealers and financial markets more generally.
Also, Schedule 2 TSLF auctions will be conducted each week; previously, Schedule 2 auctions had been conducted every two weeks. In addition, the amounts offered under Schedule 2 auctions will be increased to a total of $150 billion, from a total of $125 billion. Amounts offered in Schedule 1 auctions will remain at a total of $50 billion. Thus, the total amount offered in the TSLF program will rise to $200 billion from $175 billion.
The Board also adopted an interim final rule that provides a temporary exception to the limitations in section 23A of the Federal Reserve Act. It allows all insured depository institutions to provide liquidity to their affiliates for assets typically funded in the tri-party repo market. This exception expires on January 30, 2009, unless extended by the Board, and is subject to various conditions to promote safety and soundness.
Source: Federal Reserve
AIG (AIG) has turned down capital from a private-equity consortium that would have effectively taken over the firm. CEO Willumstad reported to be requesting help from the Federal Reserve, though it is unclear what the Fed could do for an insurer.
AIG (AIG) has turned down capital from a private-equity consortium that would have effectively taken over the firm. CEO Willumstad reported to be requesting help from the Federal Reserve, though it is unclear what the Fed could do for an insurer.
WSJ, CNBC reporting that Bank of America (BAC) purchase of Merrill Lynch (MER) is official. Boards of both companies have approved deal at $29/share. SEC has also approved
Live coverage of Lehman Bros. (LEH) New York headquarters shows steady stream of employees entering, exiting with boxes.
29$/share MER from BAC
Lehman (LEH) is preparing to file for bankruptcy tonight, CNBC and Bloomberg are reporting
MER 29$/share from BAC
Lehman (LEH) is preparing to file for bankruptcy tonight, CNBC and Bloomberg are reporting
HOLLY COW !!!!
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/update--greenspan-big-finance-firms-fail/
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/14/news/economy/greenspan/index.htm?section=money_latest
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=amVkrOCQNBQs
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/09/14/national/w071218D78.DTL&feed=rss.business
HOLLY COW !!!!
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/update--greenspan-big-finance-firms-fail/
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/14/news/economy/greenspan/index.htm?section=money_latest
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=amVkrOCQNBQs
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/09/14/national/w071218D78.DTL&feed=rss.business
After reading this article, I'm convince that commodities is the place to be.
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080909.wheinzl0910/BNStory/SpecialEvents2/home
Copy/paste of a message I post yesterday in the peak oil section.
What people don't get is that even in a recession, the mix of Peak oil + Asia growth (India, China) will offset EU and USA recession.
2.5 Billion people growing at 5 to 10%/year against 750M with 0-1% = OIL GOING UP.
I keep my target of 500-600$/Barrel for 2015 (300$ for 2012)
This is amazing....
Scary stuff.
In the end, strong trends will prevail.
China + India pushing commodities higher.
Very very interesting.
I plan to stay here with you guys.
I like your work.
Thank you for receiving me.
Same here.
Will appreciate chart analysis on CLR, GDP, HK, GMXR
thks
I was talking about that subject with a close friend.
What people don't get is that even in a recession, the mix of Peak oil + Asia growth (India, China) will offset EU and USA recession.
2.5 Billion people growing at 5 to 10%/year against 750M with 0-1% = OIL GOING UP.
I keep my target of 500-600$/Barrel for 2015 (300$ for 2012)
They will not renew it, another web site will be released.
Sib is not gbdx anymore...
CAT 4 CONFIRMED
Who is using Zecco and is it a serious broker ?
Thks.
They expect CAT 4 on HOUSTON with winds around 130-140 mph.
CAT 4 BY FRIDAY HITTING HOUSTON
CAT 4 BY FRIDAY HITTING HOUSTON
CAT 4 BY FRIDAY HITTING HOUSTON
Tacoz happy to see you here.
Always a good sign......:)
CHART
GMX Resources (GMXR): No position yet but its on my list of dance partners that will shine when the commodities stabilize. Highly concentrated, gassy play with high leverage to the Haynesville and little if any value in the stock for it. They’d make a nice stocking stuffer for any mid or large cap E&P that finds itself behind in the resource play game.
Price as of 8/13/08: $62.19
GMXR - East Texas Cotton Valley Lime player with Bossier/Haynesville Shale underlying their acreage. 94% gas with a strong balance sheet.
* What’s To Like:
o Highly concentrated: 1 core asset in 2 counties (Harrison and Panola in E. Texas)
o "Soft guidance" for 100% production growth next year. They have grown production by 100% in each of the last 3 years.
o Large inventory of highly economic drilling locations (read on)
o Proved Reserves at YE 2007: 434 Bcfe. At $3 per Mcfe in the ground that equals $1.3 billion vs a current Total Enterprise Value of $1.25 B.
o They see 3P reserves at 3 Tcfe (7x current proved)
o Operating costs : falling below $1/ Mcfe and looks to fall more as production runs up
o Deal already out of the way, they are saying taking the deal fear off the table for the next 18 months and took debt down to 32% debt to cap.
o Bread & Butter business is Cotton Valley wells
+ low, low F&D costs of $0.79 per Mcfe …just about best in class
+ only 15% of acreage drilled up so far; 890+ locations remain
o Haynesville/Bossier Shale Exposure:
+ 38,455 haynesville acres - with two targets,
+ 480 net locations on 80 acres,
+ acreage in fairway of the play
+ 350 foot thick section, EURs of 4.5 to 8.5 Bcfe estimated by others in the play; is about 10 miles west of CHK’s big well and just east of PVA’s wells.
+ Have drilled multiple vertical wells on their acreage back to 2006, waited for industry leaders to crack the code on horizontal development and to share data - goes to management intelligence.
+ Porosity of 12 to15%, maybe be underestimated due to presence of dolomite. It’s going to flow.
+ Gas in place in this area is in the 170 to 200+ Bcf range per secton
+ 81% operated with a 79% net revenue interest
+ Plan to spud first horizontal well in 3Q08.
+ pre purchased OCTG for near term program,
+ 5 rigs now, 6th rig coming Nov., 2 will drill vert cv wells, 3 now drilling cv and they will be repurposed to finish the current well and then go Hs, sixth rig goes hs immediately on delivery in NOV. HP flex rigs show up next year (2) and go to drill HS. 9-11 rigs by end of next year with 2 to 4 of them in the CV.
* What’s To Knock:
o Small caps are going to be extremely volatile in the near term
o "Gas glut" thesis not yet resoundingly defeated
o Hot money still in the name may present overhanging supply as it tries to rally
o The stock is up 90% since the beginning of the year but see valuation metrics below
* Where’s It Trade:
o P/CF of 6.7x on a 2009 CFPS estimate of $9.31. Not expensive given their growth and that CFPS number is not based on 100% expected growth.
o Debt to cap of 32%, not bad at all.
o They had 435 Bcfe in proved reserves as of YE07. Putting a 6 Bcfe EUR on its acreage risked 50% with an 80 acre spacing and their royalty guidance yields a net potential reserve estimate of 1.2 Tcfe, or 2.75x current reserves. In their presentations they are not risking the play 50% which would double the reserve number to 2.4 Tcfe or 5.5x their current reserves
o The stock is trading at a TEV of $1.045 billion:
+ If you assume they could garner $2.50/Mcfe for their in the ground booked reserves which is beyond reasonable that leaves the Haynesville acreage for free.
+ A takeout at a 50% premium to yesterday’s closing price would probably get the deal done and would still only value the Haynesville/Bossier acreage at under $10,000 per acre, a far cry from the $20K to $30K per acre deals we have been seeing of late.
+ I think they could get $3 /Mcfe for the in ground proven reserves and $25K per acre for their Haynesville acres which would yield a triple digit share price as calculated below.
+ They have mapped out a potential price that is much higher but for now, the easy math gets you a double and isn’t such a stretch to the Summer-weary energy investor.
Zacks #1 Rank Additions for Monday
Monday September 8, 8:15 am ET
Here are the stocks added to the Zacks #1 Rank ('strong buy') List today:
* AeroCentury Corp (AMEX: ACY - News)
* Aeropostale Inc (NYSE: ARO - News)
* Atlas Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE: APL - News)
* Badger Meter Inc (NYSE: BMI - News)
* BlueLinx Holdings Inc (NYSE: BXC - News)
* CARBO Ceramics Inc (NYSE: CRR - News)
* CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO - News)
* DXP Enterprises Inc (NasdaqGS: DXPE - News)
* Enbridge Energy Management LLC (NYSE: EEQ - News)
* First Cash Financial Services Inc (NasdaqGS: FCFS - News)
* GameStop Corp (NYSE: GME - News)
* Hewitt Associates Inc (NYSE: HEW - News)
* ICON plc (NasdaqGS: ICLR - News)
* Insight Enterprises Inc (NasdaqGS: NSIT - News)
* Key Energy Services Inc (NYSE: KEG - News)
* Kindred Healthcare Inc (NYSE: KND - News)
* Leggett & Platt Inc (NYSE: LEG - News)
* LHC Group Inc (NasdaqGS: LHCG - News)
* Lufkin Industries Inc (NasdaqGS: LUFK - News)
* MainSource Financial Group Inc (NasdaqGS: MSFG - News)
* ManTech International Corp (NasdaqGS: MANT - News)
* Olin Corp (NYSE: OLN - News)
* Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd (NasdaqGS: SNDA - News)
* Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd (NYSE: SHG - News)
* Smith International Inc (NYSE: SII - News)
* Team Inc (NasdaqGS: TISI - News)
* Telecomunicacoes de Sao Paulo SA (NYSE: TSP - News)
* TOTAL SA (NYSE: TOT - News)
What does a small oil producer do when local selling prices are temporarily low and inventories are growing? Well if the company is Continental Resources (CLR), it will scavenge around to find storage facilities and sit on the oil until prices come back in line. This is exactly the situation that Continental faced in the fourth quarter as the local Rocky Mountain markets experienced seasonal price differential from the standard WTI crude contract. The company simply refused to sell at such discounted levels and stored roughly 125,000 barrels until the price came back into equilibrium. The strategy paid off well as the company realized much better prices in the first 2 months of 2008 and the inventory was distributed bringing in significantly higher profits.
Contenental Resources is a US based oil and natural gas producer that operates primarily in the US western states. The company issued its IPO mid-year last year at $15 but has impressed investors enough to nearly double the stock since then. One of the primary drivers of growth has been a project in North Dakota that had many skeptics. Despite some negative feedback during the company’s road show leading up to the IPO, management continued to pursue the promising development and has begun to see very positive results. Production in this area is ramping up and should be a strong addition to 2008.
Successful exploration and production (E&P) companies know that their success is largely a function of the difference between the sales price of their oil, and the cost to the company of bringing that oil out of the ground. While most have very little control over the end selling price, efficiency is extremely important to building a sustainable franchise. Continental has been able to successfully acquire properties and set up rigs to drill the wells while maintaining a very attractive cost per barrel. When asked about cost issues this week, management stated that with the exception of some moderate steel price increases, the rest of their cost structure appears to be very stable. With rising prices being fetched for the production, this equates to growing margins and more value for shareholders.
On the sales price side of the equation, Continental is looking forward to the upcoming expiration of a fixed price arrangement. A portion of their production (10,000 barrels per day) had been fixed at $72.90 and when this contract expires the company will be able to recognize even larger margins with this additional production being sold at market rates. Management gave no indication as to whether additional production would be hedged in a similar manner, but it would make sense for them to lock in at least some of their future production at these attractive long-term rates.
Financial leverage can be a dangerous thing in any business and the oil industry is no stranger to the game. Analysts consider Continental’s balance sheet to be conservative with a 20% debt to cap rate. Since the industry is very capital intensive, it often takes significant financing to be able to fund a drilling project as wide as CLR’s. The debt should be able to be serviced through cash flow and the company continues to keep spending in check so as not to incur larger debt levels. Still, this is something to keep a close eye on as large debt levels can have a tendency to come back to cause trouble.
The stock is breaking to new highs after the positive earnings announcement this week. With earnings expected to grow quickly in 2008 and 2009, the multiple still looks attractive and the supply/demand dynamics are interesting as the newly public company is attracting the attention of large institutional buyers for the first time. The company does not pay a dividend at this time, choosing instead to plow cash flow back into its business, but the growing value for shareholders appears very promising.
I was working in Saudia Arabia back in the 90's.
To say it short.
They don't have soo mutch oil in the ground (30-40% less of what they claim).
Actually, they plan to invest all the oil profits in the Solar industry.
They've a huge solar project with Sunpower and a Norvegian company.
IMHO they will push oil until 300-500$/Barril, to be sure they will be the solar N°1 (cash).
Future ?
Algae oil, Natural Gas, Solar.
Ike is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico, home to more than a quarter of U.S. oil production, by midweek. Computer models show it reaching the Gulf's center by the end of the week, heading south of Louisiana and moving toward Texas.
Energy producers reported that personnel from 10 rigs have been evacuated, or about 8.3 percent of the 121 rigs operating in the Gulf, and 202 production platforms have been evacuated, the Minerals Management Service said today in a statement on its Web site. There are about 717 manned production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
MINIMUM CAT 3 WHEN WILL BE HERE
Ike Set to Hammer Cuba, on Path for Gulf of Mexico (Update4)
By Demian McLean
Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Ike weakened to a Category 3 hurricane as it approached Cuba and charted a course toward the Gulf of Mexico, bringing the region its second major storm in as many weeks.
Ike's winds slowed to about 193 kilometers (120 miles) per hour from about 216 mph earlier today, the National Hurricane Center said at 8 p.m. local time. The system was 100 kilometers north of Guantanamo, Cuba, after passing through the Bahamas. The storm is forecast to sweep across Cuba and move back over water south of the Florida Keys on Sept 9.
Local officials urged the 80,000 residents of the Keys to leave today for the mainland. Cuba is evacuating more than a half-million people from its northeast coast, Agence France- Presse reported, citing local officials.
``I haven't evacuated in 15 years' David Black, 47, a clerk at the Heron House hotel in Key West, said in a phone interview. ``It's less trouble to just weather the hurricane and if you go to Miami or Orlando, you can get hit by the storm you're running from.'
President George W. Bush declared a state of emergency today in Florida, authorizing at least $5 million in aid and the help of federal disaster officials, the White House said.
Heading for Gulf
Ike is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico, home to more than a quarter of U.S. oil production, by midweek. Computer models show it reaching the Gulf's center by the end of the week, heading south of Louisiana and moving toward Texas.
Energy producers reported that personnel from 10 rigs have been evacuated, or about 8.3 percent of the 121 rigs operating in the Gulf, and 202 production platforms have been evacuated, the Minerals Management Service said today in a statement on its Web site. There are about 717 manned production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Most energy output in the Gulf has been halted since Hurricane Gustav ripped through the area and made landfall in Louisiana on Sept. 1.
Initial indications are that 80 percent of homes on Grand Turk and North Caicos islands suffered damage from Ike, according to a statement from Risk Management Solutions Inc., which quantifies risk for insurers.
``A number of houses lost their roofs, as well as a prison,' said Stephen Russell, commander of the National Emergency Management Agency in Nassau, Bahamas. ``On Great Inagua, many homes also lost roofs and all phone lines are down.'
A Category 3 hurricane is in the middle of the five-tier Saffir-Simpson scale, and Ike is expected to remain a ``major hurricane' as it approaches Cuba, the U.S. NHC said.
Urging Evacuations
Officials in Monroe County, where the Keys are located, urged tourists to leave the islands yesterday, said Chuck Mulligan, a spokesman with the Tallahassee-based state Division of Emergency Management.
Officials from the Federal Emergency Management Agency told reporters in Washington today they had positioned supplies of food and water throughout the Gulf states and are ready to help.
``The Keys and the very southeastern tip of Florida could definitely see some squally-type weather as the storm passes,' Chuck Caracozza, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami, said in a telephone interview.
Ike may dump as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rain on parts of Cuba, the U.S. hurricane center said.
Haiti was devastated by Tropical Storm Hanna during the week, after Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay struck in the past month. Gustav and Hanna killed 577 people in Haiti, AFP said.
As many as 600,000 people may currently need assistance in Haiti, according to the United Nations humanitarian affairs chief John Holmes.
Cuba yesterday urged the U.S. to ease its trade embargo and open private credit lines for food imports into the island in the wake of Gustav, AFP reported.
Ike Set to Hammer Cuba, on Path for Gulf of Mexico (Update4)
By Demian McLean
Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Ike weakened to a Category 3 hurricane as it approached Cuba and charted a course toward the Gulf of Mexico, bringing the region its second major storm in as many weeks.
Ike's winds slowed to about 193 kilometers (120 miles) per hour from about 216 mph earlier today, the National Hurricane Center said at 8 p.m. local time. The system was 100 kilometers north of Guantanamo, Cuba, after passing through the Bahamas. The storm is forecast to sweep across Cuba and move back over water south of the Florida Keys on Sept 9.
Local officials urged the 80,000 residents of the Keys to leave today for the mainland. Cuba is evacuating more than a half-million people from its northeast coast, Agence France- Presse reported, citing local officials.
``I haven't evacuated in 15 years' David Black, 47, a clerk at the Heron House hotel in Key West, said in a phone interview. ``It's less trouble to just weather the hurricane and if you go to Miami or Orlando, you can get hit by the storm you're running from.'
President George W. Bush declared a state of emergency today in Florida, authorizing at least $5 million in aid and the help of federal disaster officials, the White House said.
Heading for Gulf
Ike is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico, home to more than a quarter of U.S. oil production, by midweek. Computer models show it reaching the Gulf's center by the end of the week, heading south of Louisiana and moving toward Texas.
Energy producers reported that personnel from 10 rigs have been evacuated, or about 8.3 percent of the 121 rigs operating in the Gulf, and 202 production platforms have been evacuated, the Minerals Management Service said today in a statement on its Web site. There are about 717 manned production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Most energy output in the Gulf has been halted since Hurricane Gustav ripped through the area and made landfall in Louisiana on Sept. 1.
Initial indications are that 80 percent of homes on Grand Turk and North Caicos islands suffered damage from Ike, according to a statement from Risk Management Solutions Inc., which quantifies risk for insurers.
``A number of houses lost their roofs, as well as a prison,' said Stephen Russell, commander of the National Emergency Management Agency in Nassau, Bahamas. ``On Great Inagua, many homes also lost roofs and all phone lines are down.'
A Category 3 hurricane is in the middle of the five-tier Saffir-Simpson scale, and Ike is expected to remain a ``major hurricane' as it approaches Cuba, the U.S. NHC said.
Urging Evacuations
Officials in Monroe County, where the Keys are located, urged tourists to leave the islands yesterday, said Chuck Mulligan, a spokesman with the Tallahassee-based state Division of Emergency Management.
Officials from the Federal Emergency Management Agency told reporters in Washington today they had positioned supplies of food and water throughout the Gulf states and are ready to help.
``The Keys and the very southeastern tip of Florida could definitely see some squally-type weather as the storm passes,' Chuck Caracozza, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami, said in a telephone interview.
Ike may dump as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rain on parts of Cuba, the U.S. hurricane center said.
Haiti was devastated by Tropical Storm Hanna during the week, after Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay struck in the past month. Gustav and Hanna killed 577 people in Haiti, AFP said.
As many as 600,000 people may currently need assistance in Haiti, according to the United Nations humanitarian affairs chief John Holmes.
Cuba yesterday urged the U.S. to ease its trade embargo and open private credit lines for food imports into the island in the wake of Gustav, AFP reported.
BREAKING NEWS
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=13230
CAT 4 AFTER CUBA
BREAKING NEWS
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=13230