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This stock has come a long way. Doubled in less than a month, on relatively small volume. There is a window after news that Shorts sense weakness and sell borrowed shares to try and spark more selling. If it works they buy later at a lower price, if it doesn't they will have to cover and could spark a new trend up. This stock has dealt with this forever. Could be different with a black net income folks may be a little harder to scare off.
Hitting Break Even was HUGE!
lol, you don't want to acknowledge that. therefore I don't feel the need to chase your rabbits. Bottom line is after last quarter any money put back into the biz will earn 40% less interest cost and dividend. The new volume will likely increase margin with larger production runs. The positive income will hopefully invite more cheap debt for this money maker.
When this company submits their new financials, they will likely get increased credit line from suppliers. (free money with volume price breaks).
Some folks recognize the significance as stock price doubled. Can the shorts push it down? It is protected by a small float and i am sure new prospectors.
Do you have a Subpoena?
Here is why it is positive.
First you have to look at the 700 aside from the whole. Without the $700K there would not have been a build in inventory and an offering of Credit line to customers. Without that there would not have been the related growth of sales. All other cost already exist and are covered at break-even volume. the key to quarter 4 was the established break-even volume. (I didn't have until 1st qtr 2015) In short, any new cash spent now At should earn 40% margin after the interest any left would go to cash flow or used for further growth.
Market Cap Would be?
What would Kezzek Put as a fair market cap on this one?
Then use your Method on GOPRO and MNST...Whacky huh!
I have noticed Credit Line. And I believe their return on that seems to be positive and contributing to fixed costs. With conservative proforma's it pays back by Carls due date. (funny how that date was chosen a while ago) I also notice there are several significant functions coming up on the docket and they involve fish that are a little bigger and swim a little deeper than you and I. I understand that there is a risk, but this Company does not resemble SKNY lol.
I wouldn't be afraid to buy here at $1. I believe the risk reward for this over a year period is quite a good one. Especially with a capital gain strategy or a Roth IRA purchase. However, I believe with current electronic trading in the OTC that bets are better placed at different points on the chart at this time. I would rather be long $1 than short $1 looking for a bottom.
No prediction in cash flow. In a corporation where cash can be accessed upon need (ie CDS enterprises and other strong Companies) Cash flow becomes a decision by management based on the return. If there is an acquisition, capital project or Growth initiative that would utilize cash flow above the IRR with an acceptable payback, I would expect the cash to be utilized and managed. In my pro forma there could be free cash of between $3.5 and $1.5 myn depending on depreciation. Which I am sure is marginal.
My calc has a conservative 1st quarter 2015 Net Income to common at black $378K. I really think if we get to see the financials it will beat that. My portfolio has these shares at about a third of what you say. And, I know that the float is very small and Short traders are borrowing at extremely risky levels. I am extremely comfortable owning this stock and holding for retirement. Owning this stock and following this company for so long, I recognize how exciting these times are for this company. Here's to hoping long term holders don't give in to marginal returns.
Sales Margin more than pays debt by Dec. 2016
Even with marginal steady sales Growth and fairly aggressive increases in Sales and Marketing expense I have calculated Net income to common stock between $16myn and $68myn over the next 2 years.
But, I think you know this and have some urgency to push this baby down. Viva Las Vegas Baby!
OMG Shameless! Lol!
Somewhere someone will soon wake up with Sellers remorse! You guys may, maybe have another couple weeks of this if you're lucky. Way too stable in the financial expense, and Revenue is going over the top. Sweden consumes 1.5myn cans per month alone. Brazil is ramped up with the same model to follow, and Fittipaldi at the helm. It Won't be long before Rapid Growing Revenue swallows up your balance sheet concerns before anyone truly notices.
Operating Cost remains Steady at $1.5 myn/qtr and Ebitda improved $650k (to $400K in the black) quarter from last quarter.
This team worked to be traded on the NASDAQ not so long ago. It was a disaster because they just weren't ready. However, I'm pretty sure it is still their vision.
If not $22myn cap on black bottom line then what?
I look at the players on this team and the talent is incredible. Not the kind of folks that will let others down. I'll leave the flipping to you guys until it appears extremely overbought with a larger float. As for now. With a late last quarter earnings, the new quarter is not far away. I will sit back and watch the show while I sip my Celsius Cola! AAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!
Not Good strategy for the weak conviction.
Gotta love the shorts and the stop loss traders with high volume. They can keep things exciting for everyone.
Sometimes the best fruit is found at the very end of the limb.
Your perspective is interesting. But, Carl has more than just shareholders invested at this point. There comes a time in a teams existence that momentum takes a big swing and a large group of players are committed to make the team work. Although he holds the final decision, Carl is no longer alone in his interest to ride this one out. Holding a leveraged play or uncovered play on this one is uncharacteristically risky at this point in the business' life. I believe this company realizes how important time is in capturing value and market share for this product at this time.
I would agree with what your saying. But there are a lot of factors that de-categorize this stock from your typical OTC reference. The largest, among other keys, being aspects surrounding the unusually small Float.
$22 million is still kinda low.
Just Sayin,
The sales growth trend is extremely promising.
Increasing margins.
They now understand where the break even to positive income volume is
Product has proven sustainability.
Not to mention You never know when a deal with a major, who has distribution and advertising, will come into play. (KO sent an interesting message with MNST deal)
I lean a little more toward your latter camp.
Haha, You really don't want to listen unless it fits your doomsday strategy. As for reading financial statements, It really doesn't concern me that the increase in $3 million liabilities, when A/R cash and inventory account for most of it. With 40% margins and decent positive sales growth, there is not an accountant in a normal business that would get in the way of using that debt. As for the Negative Cash flow of ($700) You need that Inventory and A/R to grow and grow. Not ready to be a chicken little yet.
Thanks for teaching me a valuable lesson. a 12year corp accountant can always use good advice. Good Luck. Btw a Good INVESTOR doesn't worry about squeezes. lol
Haha, the one who self proclaims true analysis is using short numbers from a 1 1/2 months ago. A lot has changed since then. I love a nice little washout before the next move up. Very healthy stock move in the making.
Good luck with your trading. (Bash and Cash)
The $700K is a bargain for the value gained.
Im beginning to understand your blindspots, given your analysis paralysis issue. If you look at this companies financial structure and performance you will see that $1.00 is the number. This company has until Dec 2016 to show positive performance. Holding it at positive income statement translate to anything below $1.00 is an absolute value steal for an "Investor".
btw your number of 1k shorts is over a month and a half old. If you follow the daily short report you will see the giant increase in short activity since your report.
Thank you for your analysis Kezzek.
Your analysis is somewhat astute, but lacks completeness. If you look at the balance sheet, the $3 million additional debt is used to build cash, inventory, and boost revenue with increased customer terms and limits. You are failing to look at both sides of this budget. Growth in Revenue and Margin continue to be the most important story for this valuation. A 2015 black quarter exceeded any expectation that any shareholder has for this stock. In my opinion $22 million market cap is still extremely cheap. This product has been successfully resonating in every market it has entered. The company has also identified and implemented plans in new markets. This company has an extremely strong and talented leadership team and is showing they are capable of growth and profit in a market place that has been primarily relying on Advertising and Distribution. This is a new generation and It looks like this company understands what the new generation is looking for.
btw, I am a big fan of shorts in a market place.
Does anyone know anything about a Russell Simmons deal in the works?
That 50k shows up and disappears in short time. It may not be what it seems.
Is something on the horizon? Yahoo message board is heating up...
TRENDS
Sports and energy drinks remained very dynamic in 2012 and sales were underpinned by both new product launches from 2011 and 2012 as well as marketing campaigns by leading companies like Red Bull Nordic. The latter increased off-trade volume and value sales by 28% and 31%, respectively in 2011 and strongly contributed to the overall growth in energy drinks. The 2011 release of Femme Natural Boost by Femme Natural Energy also increased, but is it is still a small player. Volume sales were also further boosted by larger packaging sizes in energy drinks, such as Monster from Coca-Cola Drycker Sverige. Sport drinks were positively aided by wider distribution of the Celsius brand from Peoples Choice (Celsius). The brand became more widely available in the grocery channel and this boosted sales in 2011 and 2012. However, the brand is highly debated as it claims to reduce weight and have a very high content of caffeine. Some local city authorities have even banned sales of the brand and the Swedish Consumer Agency is investigating if the claim of weight reduction is within regulations.