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Cj,If I understand it correctly there seem may be at least 3 ways Bavi is superior to other technologies in prolonging patient survival.
1.Drugs which target a specific pathway may be effective for a short time...but when the cancer switches to another pathway....that drug loses its effectiveness.
BAVI on the other hand, calls upon the immune system to attack all inside-outside phospholipids...it doesn't care which pathways have signalled the cancer growth.
2.VEGF encourages new new blood vessels helping tumours to grow. Once you stop giving a VEGF-blocking therapy revascularization happens within days.
BAVI on the other hand appears to be attacking an up-stream target and thereby PREVENTS excess VEGF from appearing in the first place.
3.It is often said that it is not the original cancer but the metastases which kill people. There has been a lot of pre-clinical evidence that BAVI PREVENTS or ATTACKS metastases.
I think these are 3 reasons why we may see better PFS and overall survival data form BAVI than from Avastin. Do you agree and are there some other aspects of the BAVI mode of action that you might add? Thanks for all your hard work...this is getting very exciting and todays information is very interesting and encouraging!
Jake, we agree that worldwide Avastin sales were $4.8(U.S.)billion last year. I applied a 25% increase to worldwide sales to get the $6(U.S.)billion figure for 2009 sales. In 2008 Avastin sales increased 37% Worldwide(17% in the U.S. and 67% in Europe and RoW) according to Roche(my source).
The only reason I raised this issue is because I had previously misinformed this board by stating that Avastin sales were going to be $3 billion in 2009. That is not a bad guess for The U.S. but IT IS NOT THE WORLDWIDE AVASTIN SALES FIGURE. That figure will be closer to $6(U.S.) billion.
The reason I remind people of this figure is that if PPHM can get a good partnership we should expect a sliding royalty rate that would give at least a 33% royalty on multi-billion Bavi sales. By the time Bavi gets to market Avastin worldwide sales will almost certainly far exceed $6(U.S.) billion. It is important for shareholders to realize the ballpark we are playing in. So far the safety and ORR rates for Bavi have been significantly better than Avastin. Will the PFS and overall survival data also be superior? That is why we are are waiting for the phase II data updates.
Meanwhile retail investors should hold on tightly to their shares and not be frightened by bashers or whiners into letting them go for a few dollars! Bashers have an agenda. They want our shares as cheaply as possible! Why do you think that "silly little man"(quoting JGal) posts over 1200 bashing posts.
Jake, Avastin sales were $4.89(U.S.) billion in 2008....and they grew at a rate of 37% worldwide. I am projecting those sales to grow at a more modest 25% rate in 2009 ...hence my statement that these sales would be $6(U.S.) billion in 2009.
I SAID AVASTIN SALES ARE $3 BILLION IN 2009.
They really are closer to $6 billion. The $3 billion figure is only for the U.S.... Avastin sales increased 17% in the U.S. last year and 67% in Europe and the RoW.
Herceptin sales in the world are now close to $5 billion.
So if Bavi really becomes a threat to Avastin it is challenging a $6 billion product...and if it challenges Avastin AND Herceptin it challenges some $11 billion in sales.
I wonder if Roche or Genentech or any other big pharma might be interested in Bavi? We are not the only ones awaiting the results with great interest!
KT, I also remember that Widhorses had an interesting post (#32257) that dealt with this issue.
KT, thanks..good point.
Mojo, do you have any idea why they would choose to do a Bavi+Doce lung cancer study when the SOC is Avastin+Pac? I can see that Avastin+Doce did very poorly. Are they hoping that Bavi+Doce will do better than Avastin+Pac in lung cancer? Is there perhaps some benefit to the Bavi+Docetaxel combination that they discovered in phase I?....otherwise I find it puzzling.
FF, I understand your point. However the chart shows that Avastin reached the 22% Progression-Free Survival rate at the 8 1/2 month point...so there is some room for a margin of error. But I certainly agree that the data is looking very good and cj's point that the ORR could be even better than the 71% last reported is interesting.
Cj,I got out my measuring intruments and refined my estimation of the Avastin+Doce PFS percentage on that chart. My questimate of 24% was high. On reflection the Avastin PFS is closer to TWENTY TWO PERCENT in that 9-12 month period. I think if you or Mojo check it out that is a closer figure. As that is the relevant figure to compare to 9-10 month Bavi+Doce PFS percentage it probably is good to have it reasonably accurate!
Cj, if I read the chart correctly, I agree that it looks like the phase II Avastin and Doce hit 50% PFS at about 7.5 months.....and by 10 months the PFS was down to 24%.
If they do give us the 10 month Georgia Bavi plus Doce data soon we should compare the Bavi PFS data to Avastins 24%. Am I right?
Obama said he will fund a large program to find a cure for cancer. I hope he keeps this promise.
Cj, thank you for all your work. Between your posts and JBM's anti-PS blog those who are interested in the facts are richly rewarded.
Flg, the more I read this board the more I think Bavi CAUSES paranoia! But of course you probably already were afraid that that was the case!
There certainly is a lot of paranoia on this board. Some are paranoid about management. Some are paranoid about the very good data. Some are paranoid about other studies. Some are paranoid about the past. Some are paranoid about the future.
Many just don't seem to understand the method of action of Bavi. Because of its moa Bavi works well and safely with other agents in both the cancer and viral applications. Let's hope that there are other treatments that are better than Avastin! Bavi will very probably work well with them! Meanwhile Avastin plus chemo is the SOC.....so comparisons to Avastin in regard to safety, efficacy and the value of potential sales are VERY relevant. With all its limitations Avastin sales are $3 billion this year.
Now we only have data from 15.
Now we only have data from 30.
Now we only have data fron 45.
Now we only have data from 65.
Now we only have data from 105.
Now we only have data from 145.
The bashers will never have enough data.
"Avastin has been given to thousands of patients." Yes it has, and what have we learned. We have learned that it has a poor safety profile...so bad that women's breast cancer groups opposed it's approval. And many studies have showed that it had little or no improvement over chemo on survival data.
What have we learned from the 3 phase II Bavi studies to date? We have learned that Bavi has a greatly better safety profile than Avastin. We have learned that in all trials Bavi has a significantly better ORR than Avastin.
What information are we awaiting? The next Georgia report will give us a good look at some early TTP data. It may even give us some early insight into the survival picture. But even that will not be enough for the bashers....why ...because you can never persuade people who don't want to be persuaded.
The argument about the data will not end until there is a partnership deal. It is what big pharma thinks about the data that counts! And remember that they are getting a lot more detailed data under their confidentiality agreements than anyone in the public receives in press releases.
So far the data is great...and yes I would take Bavi over Avastin any day. Why? Not because of some vague feeling...but because of the very strong early data which I am convinced will continue to be strong. The next data from Georgia will be very interesting....but it will not convince those who don't want to be convinced. And Yes Bavi sales will exceed those of Avastin some day when the phase III(probably done under a SPA) proves that Bavi is both safer and provides for significantly better survival. But I am confident that Bavi will be partnered for the phase III trials and the share price will have moved a great deal higher than it is today. We shall see who is right. Time will tell.
SHOW ME THE MONEY.
Flg, I saw that movie too. I really enjoyed it. But you really have to learn to relax or you won't last 6 months. There have been 3 very good trial results reported so far....and you choose to discount it. If BOT is correct we might get some more Georgia data very soon. If not I expect a whole lot of data around ASCO time. If I didn't expect the data to be good I would sell right now and put the money into something safe like an American Bank stock or General Motors(ha,ha just kidding).
I have said that the kind of deal I would like to see is one that is back-loaded. A moderate amount of money up-front, moderate milestone payments and sliding royalties in the 30-40% range. But hey, if there is a bidding war and even the up-front payments and milestone payments are large I will just have to live with it.
And by the way I also expect some good news from Cotara, Duke/Haynes, DTRA and AVID in the months to come.
Meanwhile they are SHOWING us the data. It is excellent..and I expect it to get better! I'm not selling. I'm buying. I'm betting they are going to SHOW US THE MONEY.
flg, at this point the people that matter are not "the analysts and fund managers". The people that matter are the scientists and statisticians employed by the big pharma! And PPHM's CFO Paul Lytle has said that the company is "...in discussions with probably every big pharma out there." Those are his words, not mine.
Of course the first small results could be better or WORSE than a larger study...but when all 3 studies all end up with markedly better safety and ORR results than Avastin then you have to be blind to deny that something very good is happening. The company itself has admitted that they have been surprised by how good the results are. So am I. I think we all underestimated the effects of naked Bavi!
Yes, Avastin has been given to thousands of patients....and what are the results? VERY SCAREY SAFETY DATA AND LITTLE OR NO SURVIVAL BENEFITS. Yet it is part of the SOC. And it's sales are $3 billion this year.
I look forwad to the TTP and survival data from all 3 studies because I am confident that they will all be better than Avastin results. If you don't agree fine. Just wait and see. Big pharma is watching and it is their opinion that counts. After that the analysts and fund managers will follow. I am really surprised that anyone would expect leadership from those sources!
Cj thanks for explaining the viral side. It seems to me that both in regard to cancer AND viruses that targeting the phospholipids means that Bavi continues to be effective even if the cancer OR the virus changes! Bavi is going to be used as a vital part of a cocktail(combination) of drugs to control or cure cancer and viral diseases even as cancers and viruses change.....so it will never become outdated!
I hope there are new discoveries of drugs or antibodies to add to the cocktail. They do not threaten the future of Bavi...they will only make it more effective!
For those interested in the investment side of the situation the cancer picture is clearer. We know that Avastin has $3 billion in sales this year. We know that in regard to safety and ORR Bavi is better than Avastin. The next time we get data from Georgia we should see that it is also better in regard to TTP. And survival data should also be better and better as time goes on. Are big pharma interested? Of course they are!
But how do we value the viral side of Bavi? This is more difficult as there is nothing out there that you can easily compare to Bavi. I can see Bavi being part of combination treatments for HIV, HepC, malaria, flues,neglected African vruses and potential terrorist viruses etc.,etc. Surely more multi-billions in potential sales. And governments, big pharma, WHO, and foundations like Gates will all be interested.
Since Steven King has 1.27 million shares if the company is sold for $10/share he receives $12.7 million; however if it is sold for $100/share he receives $127 million. It seems to me he has a big incentive to maximize any buy-out offer...and his interests seem to be very well aligned to mine.
MARY BOYD IS HEAD OF BUS.DEV.FOR ASIA AND EUROPE.
Maybe we should take this job description seriously! Maybe this gives us a clue that the company intends to partner first of all in Asia and then in Europe and then finally in the big North American market! Dr. Boyd has vital business connections in Japan. Japan is a very big market on its own but because of language and cultural factors it is very hard to penetrate. You must have personal connections. You must have personal trust and respect. Mary has been there and has these connections.
There are some very big, knowledgeable and progressive Japanese pharma. I know other biotechs who have signed their first partnership with Japanese pharma...then partnered up in Europe and then then finally in North America.
As far as Europe goes, she has Roche connections. Roche owns 55% of Genentech(Avastin) and is trying to buy up what it does not own. It has about $40 billion in reserves and just the other day floated another $18 billion in bonds. It has also told Genentech that Genentech is overvaluing future Avastin sales. Do you think Roche knows about Bavi? Do you think Roche might be interested in Bavi?
I bet Mary has been speaking to Japanese pharma as well as Genentech and Roche(Swiss) and other European big pharma. You know it just could be that the management of this company are doing a good job!
You are correct Geo. I think Mary Boyd's background is outstanding...that she has personal contacts with big pharma who are interested in Bavi...she has put deals together before...and she has contacts and experience in Japan and Europe where PPHM may want to do some preliminary deals. And yes I do believe she is very busy...and will be busier and busier as the longer term data from the 3 Bavi trials rolls in.
I think management made some very shrewd decisions, including an obvious contrast to Avastin. Once the data reveals that Bavi has better safety and efficacy than Avastin by a very wide margin...the whole world(excluding a few bashers on this board)will know that the potential sales of Bavi are also greater than the $3 billion sales of Avastin.
This very clearly will result in some very nice partnerships or very attractive buy-out offers. It all depends on the data....and we have already received some very exciting early data.
JGal you apparently have given the market cap issue some thought. Would you like to share some preliminary thinking with us? There are some very good minds on this board(and some which might be good if they were used).All I know is that the number of indications in cancer and the viral area is very large and the potential combinations are also extensive. And when you look at what unarmed Bavi can do just think of all the armed possibilities. If unarmed Bavi proves to be superior to Avastin(and so far it is in both safety and ORR)and Avastin sales this year are $3 billion.....perhaps that is a valuation starting point. But perhaps you have a particular approach to valuation in mind?
Havn't heard much about MARY BOYD recently. It is interesting that she has worked for GSK, Novartis and Roche...and has done deals in Europe and Japan. Here is what PPHM says about her.
Mary J Boyd, Ph.D.
Head of Business Development for Asia and Europe
Dr. Boyd has more than 20 years of international pharmaceutical and biotechnology business development experience with large pharmaceutical companies including GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis and Roche. Dr. Boyd was previously director, Asia, worldwide business development, R&D for GlaxoSmithKline; head of business development and licensing in Japan for Novartis; and head, licensing and patent group for Roche in Japan. In these positions, she identified new opportunities, negotiated global agreements and maintained productive relationships with other companies. Dr. Boyd holds a Ph.D. in Developmental Genetics from the University of Cambridge, UK and a B.Sc. in Biochemistry from the University of Sussex, UK.
Thanks cj...duly noted.
BOT thank you for sharing what you hear and your interpretation of that information. Everyone interprets what we hear or read. Your posts are really appreciated by most of us on this board. And all of us interpret them as we read them! Thanks again.
It would be great to get another Georgia update soon...and as you don't control the monkeys...I know you can only give us a questimate of the Duke/Haynes release but it would be great to get that before the next Conference Call. If what you hear bears out then the news flow over the next few months should include the following (not necessarily in this order)
1. Georgia update.
2. Duke/Haynes publication.
3. March 9-11 Biosquare 2009, Lyon,France. Attended by many Europeam big pharma.
4. March 12 or 13 Conference Call. Date not yet announced but last year it was March 11.
5. March 30. Philip Thorpe presentation in Whistler B.C....on pre-clinical and CLINICAL results of targeting tumour vasculature. Could have some interesting updates on the scientific data in humans! Conference co-sponsored by Genentech(the Avastin people)
6. April 18-22 AACR, Denver.
7. ASCO May29-June 2 Orlando. More phase II data...whether in abstracts and/or press releases.
Anyhow that is how I understand it. There could be lots of other news at any time (Cotara,Bavi solid tumours,HCV/HIV, DTRA, AVID,partnering, etc. etc.)Please feel free to add, correct or interpret any way you like.
I hope they are at AACR April 18-22. On the Dec. CC Steven King certainly made it clear that they would be at ASCO May 29-June 2. He said "As far as ASCO goes,our goal is to be at ASCO this upcoming year and that could come ON A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT FRONTS, so that's a priority and we recognize that that's an important meeting and a presence there is a good thing for the overall program...". We should hear the date of the March CC very soon. Last year on March 4 they announced a March 11 CC. Private investors have the right to phone in and ask about these conferences and what news we can expect.
Wildhorses, I agree it is the DATA that counts. If it is great data I don't care if it is in the form of an abstract or a press release.
I have no idea if PPHM management has attempted to get permission to present an abstract at ASCO. If you look at mojo's post #33126 you will see that there are policies that apply to incomplete phase II trials. They are generally restrictive but in my opinion leave a crack in the door by saying "...incomplete phase II trials are OCCASIONALLY OF MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE...". At the next CC you can ask whether they intend to submit an ABSTRACT.
This really doesn't matter as they have the right to put out a full press release with the trial results at the TIME of ASCO. I have never said that they would present an abstract at ASCO....but I do expect them to keep their promise to release more updated trial information at the time of ASCO(May 30-June 2). At that time I also expect them to present a lot more data to the many potential big pharma partners under their confidentiality agreements. I expect the data to be good and I expect this data to heighten partnering or buy-out interest. Once ONE of these big pharma starts to make reasonable offers I expect to see some responses from other big pharma...if Bavi is better than Avastin in safety, ORR, TTP and survival data there will be a lot of interest in my opinion...after all, Avastin sales are $3 billion this year.
IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE DATA
By ASCO time (end of May)there should be the 56 week data from first 15 in Georgia and 7 month data available from the first 21 in the Indian lung study and the first 15 in the Indian breast cancer study. This should give a good indication of the TTP and point to better survival data than Avastin. We already know that safety and ORR is better than Avastin.
PPHM may not want to do a world-wide partnership at this time as the longer they wait the better the data and the better the partnership terms. However they could do a regional deal. I have seen other companies partner for only Japan or only Europe and get very nice up-front and milestone payments....more than enough for another year.
On the other hand it all depends how anxious the big pharma are to do a world-wide deal after they see the ASCO data. It is up to them to pull the trigger ...if one of them starts to make a move...there could be a bidding war. IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE DATA...if it continues to be superior to Avastin in all regards then PPPHM is holding all the aces in the partnership or buy-out poker game!
Genentech(DNA)the Avastin people...are a co-sponsor of the March 30 Conference(in Whistler,B.C.) where Philip Thorpe is presenting his update on targeting blood vessels..."Preclinical and CLINICAL Studies." This is only a little over a month away and may answer many of our questions about safety, efficacy, method of action, metastases etc.etc. And it is nice to know that Genentech(DNA) will be very aware of the latest scientific studies. DNA has the reputation of having a very able crew of scientists and researchers. I'm sure those scientists would love to see what they could do with armed and unarmed Bavi with their multi-billion dollar resources.
Geo, I hope we all do well. I have followed this stock for many years...but did not invest until I felt they could produce some results that would attract big pharmas attention. I think that time has come. So far the phase II data is exceptional. I think it is even better than the management expected.
It is nice to have Avastin to measure Bavi against. Avastin has problems in the areas of safety and survival. I think those are the most important areas and precisely the areas where Bavi is strongest. I hope for the sake of cancer patients that all continues to go well as current cancer treatments are brutal!
Wildhorses, there are a lot of options.
And I agree that in the long run partnerships would probably benefit shareholders the most. But I can see big pharma making a run to buy-out PPHM, precisely because it would be in THEIR best interest. There are shareholders who would choose to take $30-40 a share this year rather than receive well over a hundred dollars a share 3-4 years from now.
We have to be patient to see the survival data mature,and then, we have to be patient to maximize shareholder returns.
Wildhorses..How about a buy-out?
With 5 or 6 big pharma interested in Bavi because their biggest selling drugs are coming off-patent, with very modest pipelines and with multi-billions in their treasuries.....the bidding begins to partner Bavi. The companies realize that the same drug has multi-billion potential in both the cancer and the viral area. Plus it has other assets they like (e.g Cotara, 2C3, AVID etc.).
Once it becomes clear that partnerships will cost the companies billions(because Bavi-cancer is the biggest breakthrough in cancer in 30 years...and Bavi-viral is the biggest breakthrough in the treatment of viruses in history)they turn to making buy-out offers. If they have to make partnership offers that cost several billions then why not just buy the entire company. So the bidding begins at $3 billion for the entire company. Some of these companies have $20-30 billion sitting idle. Others start to offer billions in cash and something in shares to sweeten the deal.
Could this happen? Yes. It all depends on the data. If Bavi is as safe as it has been in all its trials to date....and if Bavi blows Avastin out of the water on survival data(which is not hard!)...then yes it will happen. And yes, DNA will be one of the bidders!
Cj your post(#33385)is really important! "Metastatic disease is what eventually kills most patients."-Steven King. I have heard this said before by others...but if Bavi succesfully kills or delays metastatic cancer its impact on overall SURVIVAL will be amazing.
Here is a drug which doesn't care if the cancer changes pathways....and prevents and/or delays and/or kills metastatic cancer. It takes time to get survival data...and the better the survival data the longer it takes to get the final results...but by ASCO time (end of May) we should get a good hint at what effect Bavi will have on survival.
With a lot of big pharma looking at this data under confidentiality agreements I expect some rustling in the swamp. Partnership or buy-out offers should start to fly. If Bavi continues to be safe and effective with just about any combination of drugs...its sales potential will far exceed Avastin($3 billion in 2009).
Radiopharmaceuticals Market in US and Europe to Reach $5.4 Billion by 2015, According to New Report by Global Industry Analysts
Greater disease incidence, development of newer diagnostic agents, widespread awareness among practitioners and patients and continued breakthroughs, in research and clinical applications areas, will propel sales of radiopharmaceuticals in US and European markets to $5.4 billion by 2015.
San Jose, CA (PRWEB) February 18, 2009 -- The market for radiopharmaceuticals continues to gain momentum with heightened interest in therapeutic efficiency, acceptance and utilization of nuclear medicine equipment, as well as development of newer diagnostic and therapeutic agents. Besides oncology applications, the nuclear medicine field is presently exploring the possibility of extending the scope and functionality of radiopharmaceuticals to other disease applications such as infection imaging, nephrology and neurology applications.
Advancements in nuclear medicine technology is expected to represent a key strategic factor in opening up new clinical opportunities for radiopharmaceutical agents. Growth in Radiopharmaceuticals market will be based on the development of new products, and robust demand for cardiology procedures, sales of oncology products, in particular, FDG for PET imaging. Establishment as well as expansion of FDG-PET reimbursement to all cancer types and also for non-oncology applications is expected to further boost the demand for radiopharmaceuticals.
Radiopharmaceuticals: A US & European Market Report
The market for Diagnostic Radiopharmaceuticals in United States is expected to grow steadily by 2012, as stated by a recent report published by Global Industry Analysts, Inc. Therapeutic Radiopharmaceuticals market in the US will exhibit dynamic growth in response to rising efforts of companies in the development of their drug research pipeline. A surfeit of installations of PET and PET/CT diagnostic scanners is expected to boost the mature European radiopharmaceuticals market. Although regional markets offer scope for expansion, price sensitivity and unclear reimbursement policies act as a stumbling block for the European radiopharmaceuticals market.
Sales of FDG, the major PET radiopharmaceutical will continue to improve, enabling widespread use of PET scans. Increases in PET volume procedures are attributable to expanded usage of PET in oncology, novel PET radiopharmaceuticals in the research pipeline for specialized applications, efficient utilization of the NOPR and growth in cardiology applications. Closer collaborations between nuclear physicians and oncologists will help further the potential of nuclear medicine and will encourage conventional pharmaceutical companies to develop new and novel radioactive versions of available therapeutic products. Molecular imaging will increasingly be used in conjunct with therapy to determine optimum dosages, and thereby minimize side effects.
Key players dominating the US and European radiopharmaceuticals market include Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc, Advanced Medical Isotope Corporation, Alseres Pharmaceuticals, Inc, Astellas Pharma US Inc, Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals, Bio-Nucleonics Inc, Bracco Diagnostics Inc, Cardinal Health, Cell Therapeutics Inc, Cellectar LLC, Covidien Imaging Solutions, Cytogen Corporation, Draximage, GE Healthcare Limited, GlaxoSmithKline Plc, IBA Molecular North America Inc, Immunomedics Inc, Kimberly-Clark Inc, Lantheus Medical Imaging Inc, MDS Nordion, Molecular Insight Pharmaceuticals Inc, Peregrine Pharmaceuticals Inc, PETNET Pharmaceuticals Inc, Pharmalucence Inc, Triad Isotopes, Inc., among others.
The report titled "Radiopharmaceuticals: A US & European Market Report" published by Global Industry Analysts, Inc., provides a comprehensive review of industry overview, key regional markets, product overview, product introductions/innovations, profiles of major players, and recent industry activity. The report analyzes market data and provides analytics in value sales for regions including the United States and Europe (France, Germany, Italy, UK, Spain, and Rest of Europe). The study also analyzes the radiopharmaceuticals market by the following product segments - Diagnostic Radiopharmaceuticals and Therapeutic Radiopharmaceuticals.
For more details about this research report, please visit http://www.strategyr.com/Radiopharmaceuticals_Market_Report.asp
About Global Industry Analysts, Inc.
Global Industry Analysts, Inc., (GIA) is a reputed publisher of off-the-shelf market research. Founded in 1987, the company is globally recognized as one of the world's largest market research publishers. The company employs more than 700 people worldwide and publishes more than 880 full-scale research reports each year. Additionally, the company also offers a range of more than 60,000 smaller research products including company reports, market trend reports and industry reports encompassing all major industries worldwide.
http://www.prweb.com/pingpr.php/Q291cC1IYWxmLVByb2YtSG9yci1Qcm9mLVNpbmctWmVybw==
Good find !
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I found a study where Avastin+chemo did have a CR in nsclc. However the ORR was only 27% compared to Bavi's 41% (part way through treatment!). The PFS in this study was 6.4 months and the MST was 12.5 months for Avastin +chemo. I can hardly wait to get the updates on all the Bavi studies. It is exciting to watch the Bavi story unfold.
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Table 3. Results of the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group E4599 trial: paclitaxel plus carboplatin (PCb) versus PCb plus bevacizumab for the first-line treatment of advanced, nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer PCb PCb plus bevacizumab p value
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ORR 10% (0 CR) 27.2% (1.4% CR) < .0001
HR, p value
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PFS (mos) 4.5 6.4 0.62, p < .0001
MST (mos) 10.2 12.5 0.77, p = .007
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Abbreviations: CR, complete response; HR, hazard ratio; MST, median survival time; ORR, overall response rate; PFS, progression-free survival; PR, partial response.
BAVI DOES NOT GET OUTSMARTED.
This very interesting article points out that cancers can change pathways and some targeted drugs get outsmarted. That seems to me to be similar to the way viruses can change and outsmart anti-virals which target the virus.
In both cases Bavi does NOT GET OUTSMARTED because it does not target a particular pathway in the case of cancer or some part of the virus in the case of viral infections. Targeting phospholipids produced by the cancer cell or the envelope of the virus it continues to mobilize the immune system to attack the cancer or the virus depite any changes in pathway or virus! BAVI does NOT getoutsmarted...and therefore continues to be effective longer than pathway targeted cancer drugs or virus targeted anti-virals.
At least this makes sense to me and leads me to expect a longer period of effectiveness for Bavi. That is why I am very hopeful of better overall survival of cancer patients and look forward to the Georgia results to produce better TTP and survival data than Avastin.
That will give Bavi better safety, better ORR, better TTP and better overall survival data tha Avastin. And remember Avastin will sell $3 billion in 2009. What do you think Bavi sales would be if these good results hold up!
That "going it alone" option is interesting and it can be achieved several ways. One way would be to do a partnership for only one part of the world(e.g.Europe or Rest of World and keep The Americas, or the Americas and Europe for PPHM to do by itself.)
Another alternative is that the Bavi results are attractive to many of the big pharma so you get a bidding war going on partnership and/or buyout offers. I suspect that some of these offers would be so attractive that they would be very hard to refuse! And a big pharma partnership will speed up the time to market and the marketing muscle when Bavi gets to market.
Any way it goes I expect some interesting times this year.
A basketball player who averages 30 points and 15 rebounds and 10 assists per game doesn't have to bad-mouth opponents! His statistics speak for themselves. It is the same thing with Bavi. The data speaks for itself. Just as every basketball fan can understand the greatness of great statistics,so every big pharma can understand the significance of the great Bavi data.
That is why I feel confident there will be a partnership or buy-out this year. So far the data is great. I expect the longer term data to be even more impressive. But the data speaks for itself. I expect some competitive bidding for a partnership or buy-out. This is the Lebron James or Kobe Bryant of anti-cancer drugs...and wait until we see some more anti-viral data. What big pharma wouldn't want Bavi on its team?
Cj, thank you for all the great work you do in keeping the data before us.
I am just as excited as you are by the data so far. And I feel confident about the safety because Bavi is working WITH the immune system and not destroying it. Our bodies are "fearfully and wonderfully made" and we have to develop treatments that work WITH the immune system and the cell cycle and not against them.
The reason I am so anxious to see the Georgia data is to see improved survival. The whole point of treatment is to improve quality and length of life. Avastin has scarey safety issues, is costly, and adds little or nothing to survival. We all have friends and/or family who have battled cancer. I think there is a good theoretical basis to hope Bavi will extend both quality and length of life in a dramatic fashion. That is exciting!
And by the way, I also think it is a great investment!