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Very long post:
It's incredibly simple. I was regularly losing money in dribs and drabs day trading the SPY. Instead of day trading now, I swing trade by accumulating puts at overbought levels and vice versa for calls. I really don't use stops as I am looking for profit, not for the strike to hit.
I was greatly influenced by Netneutral's style of trading and adapted it to my own style. I was also influenced by Squeezemetrics,an expert on gamma, who states that as long as gamma is over 0, price will mean revert and the market will have a solid floor over the gamma flip point (not sure of the flip point at this moment, last time I checked it was 292 on the SPY).
That's the beauty of trading the SPY, it's a slow pokey train compared to other issues, but there's a 90% of success because of this tendency to mean revert if you accumulate a position rather than day trade.
Longer term ATR charts are great for this style of trading. I primarily depend hourly breadth charts ($ADSPD on ToS for SPX and $ADNDDC for NDX).
I use indicators on the breadth charts just like I would on any stock and also on $TRIN, $TICK and $CPC charts (hourly). In fact, I mostly rely on those (plus breadth) now, and use actual price just for entry.
I take partial profit on shorter term time frames such as the 30 minute or 1 day ATR and reload the position as the shorter term time frame returns to it's overbought or oversold level.
One has to be willing to lose money on a position for a while and trust in your indicators, which was hard in the beginning for me.
And finally, I rely on Hurst cyclic methods. The current one has a low due anywhere from now to the sixth or more (if bearish).
I am also slowly accumulating September puts and will roll over as necessary. I think the SPY will achieve 245 or 250 by December.
GLTY
TT, Noticed you don't have anything displaying under 319. So you're not considering that as a possibility yet?
SPY overshot 323 projection as support to 320 and rallying. Two possibilities include my original, long held, hypothesis of 1) up till tomorrow, then decline towards August 6th Hurst low, or 2) Decline has started and bad earnings will shoot market further down.
August 6th is a 20 week low and not insignificant, stated before.
There's a third possibility that today was an early Hurst 20 week low, which must be considered as the market has been so incredibly bullish. I have this quirky indicator I jerry-rigged that has reset itself to oversold on breadth during the last couple of weeks and is starting to turn up.
Hey Dr. Jerry,
Your personal fav, Pfizer, looks like it's about to jump the creek.
~d
Good luck to you. Catching the top intraday on the SPY is tricky. Bottoms tend to be easier for me.
Thanks for the kudos. My strategy is based on the SPY's tendency to mean revert. It's somewhat challenging to day trade for me because of that, and I'm not smart enough to place weekly iron butterflies (wouldn't know how to tweak them due to lack of advanced knowledge of Greeks, skewness and kurtosis).
so I have to build positions based on support/resistance, oversold /overbought and trending indicators on a 4 to 6 week basis.
On the other hand, as a friend pointed out could go up tomorrow (bull trap) and down on Friday with bad earnings from FB, Amazon and the rest of those hoodlums.
In any case, I think 323 may cap it if we decline at all tomorrow.
Should have held on to the courage of my conviction, as it turned out to be the correct course of action: weakness early in the week and strength at the end. Turned around and shorted based on several other posters in various forums and lost money.Only going to check forums from now on at end of day. as I said, I'm too easily influenced by other posters.
No offense to yourself and I wish good trading to you.
Speaking of weakness and strength, may see a dip to 324 or slightly below tomorrow to test the bulls courage of their conviction, lol.
I read once that the big CEO's get together and when they play golf tell each other what's happening in their respective companies with the understanding that the second CEO would use the information from the first CEO to trade and vice verse. No one can get accused of insider trading that way.
No wonder Martha Stewart got caught - she didn't play golf!
Well, she was also a girl and not a member of the club.
Possible bull trap tomorrow, then bear trap by Friday.
323 should hold and looking for 328 by Friday.
Just musing and thought I'd put it out there.
Still accumulating 330 calls for August and 320 puts for September (much slower accumulation on that one), which I will roll out (puts) if necessary; also Aug 5th puts and July 31 calls.
I would imagine the same bots that trade can also read the statement in a millisecond, look for key words and make a decision to go long or short in the time it takes us to blink.
Having said that, I actually believe this was predetermined a while ago.
I would imagine the same bots that trade can also read the statement in a millisecond, look for key words and make a decision to go long or short in the time it takes us to blink.
Having said that, I actually believe this was predetermined a while ago.
Up after Fed till end of July (30th or 31st), then down a bit to Hurst low early August and reset your dailies (I dunno...anywhere from 314 o even to 302 to really terrify the bulls), then up for the final hurrah in August to satisfy the stimulus happy dance and max out your weekly charts?
Then some thing terrible will happen in September.
IWM finally looks like it's playing catch up and
good for a long here.
NVDA looks like a good short here.~d eom
Excellent point. I should have also said that I was staunchly long, and then was influenced by another poster, which is also characteristic of me.
Dark pool buying on QQQ all day, has flattened out for the moment. Eveyone waiting on Fed.
NVDA back filling the new highs.
OT: Thanks, Spartex, how humble Not joking. You are an inspiration to little, fiery, hot headed me.
I will post another link this weekend if Ok with you. Don't want to interfere with market analysis.
Or maybe most of the day. Or maybe until Wednesday morning, lol.
I find it always good to re-examine the thought, 'Never happen' when another poster posts a projection opposing mine. When the thought is instantaneous and kind of a knee jerk reaction, my position is often incorrect. Took a look at my charts and breadth/SPY weaker than i thought. QQQ too.
Still think we go up after Wednesday, until the 31st. Drop and pop.
Thanks, Schneidku.
Or maybe most of the day. Or maybe until Wednesday morning, lol.
I find it always good to re-examine that inee jerk thought, 'Never happen' when another poster projects something opposite to my projection. When it's knee jerk, my position is often incorrect. Took a look at my charts and breadth/SPY weaker than i thought. QQQ too.
Still think we go up after Wednesday, until the 31st. Drop and pop.
I don't believe it. I think you knew that word all along. It's a conspiracy theory.
OT: There I go making friends and influencing people again.
LOL
OT: Are you 'name dropping' your credentials to bolster your arguments? Oh wait, there are no arguments except that you don't agree with me.
Speaking of scientists, I am the daughter and also, sister of world famous scientists and was trained in observation, analysis and critical thinking since I was three years old.
With that in mind, how much time did you give the website, which by the way, is run by a scientist?
I wish you the best too, glty, blah blah blah...the situation is too dire to ruminate in niceties and platitudes here.
Sorry, Spartex, I like you otherwise, but your post is completely specious.
Early morning.~d eom
I dismissed this possibility and then had to reconsider it based on the fact I dismissed it so quickly.
But still, if it happens I don't see lower than 315, give or take.
SPY call volume at the end of the day session looked a little weak today.
~d
Very short term weakness, short term - until the 30 or 31st - strength. I would really like to get that early August Hurst low behind us.
Posted on Friday that the market was looking to ultimately gap fill with potential AM weakness on Monday (today). Thought we might gap down, but had an early morning decline instead.
Can't tell if weakness tomorrow will be AM or PM. Anyone care to guess?
Continue to accumulate August 340 calls and September puts. Added calls for July 31st and puts for August 6th.
Hey, Spartex, how do you think the virus spread so fast?
https://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/
215, first Hurst projection towards 20 week low. But I think we go higher first to make another stab at that 328 on Monday, or Tuesday.
FAANG earnings week too this week. Dark pool selling on AAPL, but may be finished with this decline.
It also may end up being a peak to trough within just a few days or so, much like the end of July to early August, 2019.
First projection for 20 week low due soon, 3150 +/-.~d eom
Terrific conversation on Squeezemetric's thread on Twitter. Read the responses too:
Sometimes, selling an ITM call is a better hedge than buying an OTM put.
— SqueezeMetrics (@SqueezeMetrics) June 16, 2020
The lemon's site not as bullish as the end of day options data. Only slightly above negative gamma and DIX flip points:
https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix?
Agreed.~d eom
OT: Spartex, the times we are now in were prophesied by at least four major religions: the Hindu, the Mayan, the Hopi and the Christian (although they did put a different spin on it).
Also very famous psychics such as Edgar Cayce, Dannion Brinkley, Nostradamus and others.
The good news is that we do have immortal souls and that after another dark age, things will be better than ever before.
I am a Buddhist and believe in reincarnation. I also have friends who have out of body experiences every week. It's really no big deal to them.
There's a CD set I can recommend if you're interested in that (OOBE's). It's phenomenal, and the first CD just concentrates on relaxation. it was created by Robert Monroe, who invented what we now call binaural beats. One of the unsung avatars of the 20th century.
What I don't understand is that these high ups in the government know we have immortal souls and can exist outside our physical form - they have done tons of research since the 60's on same, also research on remote viewing, time travel, etc. Why would they commit such evil if they know what's coming to them after death? Can they possibly not believe in karma and retribution?
I simply don't understand it.
End of day options data looked like the big guys were positioning themselves for a rally Monday. If we gap down, could be a big buying opp.
~d
OT: Hear, here. I'll post this link now, the link to the CDC directive some time in the future and then I'm done.
Here's another last one. I warned about this happening years ago and was laughed off another board. Guess how they're gonna' employ all those unemployed people?
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/whitehead-federal-coup-overthrow-states-and-nix-10th-amendment-underway?utm_campaign=&utm_content=ZeroHedge%3A+The+Durden+Dispatch&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zh_newsletter
OT: Coroners open up very few hospital patients. It's far too expensive. It's the nurse or doctor that writes the death certificate.
Would you like to see the directive from the CDC?
The data is deliberately falsified before given to the CDC, that's what I am trying to make clear here.~d eom
OT: Or know that Bill Gates, who is active in the roll out of Agenda 21, donated $13 million to the CDC either this year or last year.
~d
(edited) I can't talk about this any longer, it makes me sick to my stomach. Everyone just believe what they want.
OT: You obviously didn't read the CDC directive ordering hospitals to list unknown deaths as deaths from Covid.
Look like the big boys who ever bought the 321 and 320 calls/puts earlier, recently sold the 322 calls and 319 puts.
Up for Monday, ya' think? All the way beck up to 326, maybe?
I take the fifth in response to that. While it still lasts, anyway.~d eom