IFU, my expectations for Peregrine success are relatively modest. I have said if the SP exceeds $5, I will start to cash out.

When I read some of the scurrilous crap that the complainers post over and over again, I occasionally feel the need to balance their uber negativity with some uber optimism. I do this sparingly, but I confess the impulse overcomes me at times.

Last year I apparently feel prey to impulse and guestimated Sunrise results would come in sooner than possible. Mea culpa.

However, more than 18 months into the 24 month projected enrollment seems like an early look-in triggered by 33% eventing of these very sick patients is not more than a few months away at most. On Tuesday Peregrine may tell us otherwise, but as of now we can expect that first look-in soon.

Also the second look-in only requires 17% more eventing. And, with the Bavi arm patients also eventing at this later state of the trial, this small additional increment should happen only a few months after the first look-in.

So, whether anyone pro or con likes it or not, unless we hear the enrollment is behind expectations, Sunrise will speak in months, not years. If Sunrise does not produce irrefutably, positive results, look out below. If it does produce irrefutably, positive result, I think we longs will do just fine.

GTLA, especially Bavi-arm Sunrise patients,
Paul

IFU, unlike some here I do not predict certain success for Bavi or Peregrine. Not yet. In my view we don't have enough data.

I don't see any harm done by the mega-optimists who talk about $20 or $50 or $1000 a PPHM share. Anyone taking that seriously has probably already lost their money on other get rich quick schemes.

On the other hand I do not understand how anyone would invest serious money in a company and question the truthfulness of its management. You and many others seem to be in that camp.

As often as I have expressed my optimism for Bavi and Peregrine management, I have also complained repeatedly that management fails to meet its shareholders reasonable expectations for information. I too have specifically complained about the lack of information on the dozens of collaborations. Unlike you I believe they exits. I am disappointed that they can't find a way to share anything about them. They don't seem to realize this just feeds doubt about the company. They just don't get it.

Meanwhile Sunrise is running around the world with hundreds of patients. We will see in months, not years, whether Peregrine has the goods or will die a slow, but sure death.

GLTA, especially Bavi-arm Sunrise patients,

Paul

IFU, a few questions if you don't mind.

Number 1.

Do you think Bavi will bring Peregrine commercial success? If so, how soon?

Number 2.

Do you think your continuous repeating of your anti-Peregrine line will somehow turn the company around to achieve great success? If so, how long will it take for Peregrine to learn from your helpful criticism?

Number 3.

Do you think Peregrine is a lost cause and we should all sell as soon as possible? If so, why not just plainly say so.

TIA and Good Luck to the Bavi-arm Sunrise patients,

Paul

Cotara was a project that didn't payoff. I was there for the entire sorry ride.

Peregrine today is all about Bavi. Unlike the radiation tainted Cotara project, which was focused principally on the somewhat rare Glioblastoma Multiforme brain caner, Bavi is in the immuno-oncology sweet spot with a Phase III trial well in process in the much more common lung cancer. Completely different projects.

I haven't forgotten Cotara or the other earlier efforts that did not pan out.

Bavi may succeed or fail, but Cotara and the earlier efforts will have no impact on the results IMO.

GLTA, especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise patients,

Paul

Complainers love to complain about irrelevant events from many years ago. The Duke report mentioned referred to early Bavi studies in the anti-viral realm. Peregrine not active in this area for at least five years.

Let's talk about Cotara. Cotara was a radiation-Mab approach to brain cancer that lead no where. Years ago, not Bavi. Peregrine not active in this area for about five years.

Any other ancient irrelevant stuff we should focus on?

GLTA, especially Bavi-arm Sunrise patients,

Paul

ArchieK, I suspect you are in the majority of shareholders. SK probably was expressing a hope that a good deal would emerge in the next year. Complainers are always looking for something to complain about.

Meanwhile IMO Peregrine management is focusing all the company's resources on achieving commercial success for Bavi. I like that.

GLTA, especially Bavi arm Sunrise patients,

Pau

Couch, save your breath on the other PPHM kind of long. More importantly, stay tuned for developments next week.

Peregrine has a history of finding some good news to share before their CCs. Maybe we will have some pre-CC PR to chew over.

At the CC I will be listening closely the atmospherics put out by management. If things at Peregrine are going well, I don't think management is very good at concealing their optimism. If they come on all businesslike, I might look for a chance to reduce my exposure.

GTLA, especially Bavi arm Sunrise patients,

Paul

Thank goodness Bastille Day is almost here. At the CC Peregrine management will have an opportunity to share some factual information with us.

Speculating here is diverting, but what we longs are starving for is information to support our continuing patience.

Management has never been that shareholder friendly in the information sharing way. Maybe it's time for a change.

We'll see.

GLTA, especially Bavi arm Sunrise patients.

Paul

Does anyone seriously doubt that we will have Sunrise look-in data this year? Anyone other than the permanent Peregrine doubters? Admittedly, the Data Monitoring Committee's(DMC) might not share much. As we are not privy to the DMC's instructions, we can't know how much they might share.

We do know that irrefutable proof of real benefit to patients has triggered early trial ends with "the other" arm patients given the new drug. We can't know this will happen. If it does, we will finally leave these depressing share price levels. Soon would be nice.

GLTA, especially Bavi arm Sunrise patients,
Paul

IFU, that post sounds a little off to me. Maybe the post was made by that inveterate optimist, pphmverylong, not me.

Do you question that Peregrine's fate will be determined by the Sunrise trial?

Do you question that the trial will be fully enrolled by year end as management has told us as of today?

Remember the Sunrise trial has been running more than 18 months. How long do you think it will take for 33% of the lung cancer patients, who already failed their first treatment, to event, years?

In other words the Sunrise trial is at or past its midpoint. Therefore, Peregrine is close to the learning its fate. Whether it is a happy ending, as I would like, or not.

GLTA, especially Bavi arm Sunrise patients,

Paul

On January 1st, 2016, the PPHM share price will be:

1. Above $5

2. Above $4

3. Above $3

4. Above $2

5. Above $1

6. Below $1

While it doesn't look likely now, I pick No. 2. I expect great Sunrise results will be public by year end.

GLTA, especially Bavi arm Sunrise patients,

Paul

The share price sucks. Now we can move on to the fact that Peregrine is closer to success or failure than ever.

All these years folks have been buying and selling PPHM as though something important was likely to happen in a few days, weeks or months that they might profit from. Turns out they were really, really wrong. The Peregrine story is only now reaching the climax.

In the next few weeks to months, not years, Peregrine will ride Bavi to big time success or oblivion. Like everybody else I am very nervous, but I like our odds. The clinical sign posts say success is more likely than failure. We will soon see.

GLTA, especially the Bavi arm Sunrise patients,
Paul

Nice to see that some Sunrise sites are having no trouble enrolling patients.

I just wonder if the other "visible" sites are doing as well.

Thanks for the input.

GLTA, especially Bavi arm Sunrise patients,

Paul

cheynew, it has become abundantly clear that the only winners in the CSM lawsuit will be the lawyers.

From a practical point of view Peregrine has already lost. By the time this thing concludes, the Sunrise trial will have established whether Peregrine has a future or not. Whatever piddling cash Peregrine could get from a judgment won't make any difference to Peregrine or its new owner.

GLTA, especially the Bavi arm Sunrise patients,

Paul

Let me the first to say it. The Bastille Day, July 14, conference will be a big disappointment and the share price will end lower than it began.

I said it, but I didn't mean it. First, because at the last CC the share price did not finish lower. Well, it was flat. Second, because I believe management is flogging the troops to push Bavi toward the finish line. I believe the troops are due to produce some good news.

Might be before, during or after the CC, but I am confident these hard charging guys will produce something soon. Unlike some, when I look at the last few years effort from Peregrine, I like what I see.

I know the share price sucks. I know with good news this can change quickly. Soon would be nice.

GLTA, especially the Bavi arm Sunrise patients,

Paul

With the CC coming on Bastille Day, July 14, maybe we will see some news in the next few days.

By what is almost surely coincidence Peregrine management seems to comes out with a positive nugget in the days before a CC. I hope they can do so this time around. The SP could really use a boost, as could our over-worked optimism muscles.

GLTA, Paul

Sunrise enrollment period rolling along toward Dec. 31, 2015 expected completion.

Assuming on time enrollment, is it time to update those simulated dates for the interim look-ins? Maybe that should wait for an update on the enrollment at next week's CC.

I know some suggest excitement over this trial is either premature or doomed to be frustrated, but I disagree. I think every day we don't hear anything, patients are living longer with Bavi helping their immune systems fight their disease.

I like to think about Dr. Thorpe's MAB proving its value in hundreds of patients all over the world.

I can't wait for news. If Peregrine management knows anything it can release without offending the FDA, they should spill it at the CC.

GLTA, Paul

Here is the thing.

Peregrine management is 100% behind Bavi. No knowledgeable person doubts this.

The Sunrise trial is "on track" for full enrollment by Dec. 31, 2015, according to management's last statement. If this is not contradicted in the next CC, we can expect the first look-in in the next few months, with the second only a few months later. We will know if Bavi achieves major success in Sunrise in a short period by my standards.

If Bavi succeeds to the extent many of us expect, Peregrine management will push commercialization very hard. The only thing that could stop Peregrine is if the torch is passed to a new owner. In either event we longs will make a lot of money.

GLTA, Especially Bavi Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul

Lets have a look at the current state of Peregrine. A very brief look.

Pivotal Phase III Sunrise trial is 3/4 through the expected complete enrollment by December 31 of this year. First interim look-in could occur at any time, preferably later rather than sooner to predict better than standard of care survival numbers.

Avid greatly expanded. Probably for new customer needs = more revenue. Or, management has huge confidence of early Bavi approval. Either looks pretty good.

Bavi-Yervoy trial in ISP for quite a while. ISPs are notoriously slow, but who know how soon or how good the results could be.

Research with MSK starting up.

New trials in breast cancer and with Opdivo announced to start soon.

You might think the SP could go up, rather than down. The fact that it didn't is annoying, but hardly anything to worry about in view of all the above positives IMO.

GLTA, especially Bavi arm Sunrise patients,

Paul

TOG, whatever Peregrine's goals for the MSK research, they are all good as far as I'm concerned.

GLTA, especially Bavi arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul

MSK. I haven't notice anyone point out that Peregrine wouldn't pay MSK to research Bavi as an immunotherapy if they weren't supremely confident of the results. Kind of like the lawyer never asking a question that he doesn't know the answer to.

On these days of doubt easy to forget that Peregrine management operates as though they have no doubts. I like their confidence even though "the market" doesn't seem to notice.

GLTA, especially Bavi arm Sunrise patients,

Paul

Duh, of course Peregrine is paying MSK to do the research. I just hope the millions coming Peregrine's way after successful Sunrise results emerge dwarf the MSK expense.

GLTA, especially the hundreds of Bavi arm Sunrise patients,

Paul

I hope Peregrine can come up with some news before the July 12 CC to quiet the chorus of critics. Amazing how they manage to re-cycle the same old material.

GLTA, especially Sunrise Bavi patients,

Paul

cheynew, no one is happy waiting for anything. Everyone knows the process of commercializing a new drug takes more than a few years. I expect the majority of the remaining longs understand this is a slow process and do not blame Peregrine management for it.

The one thing about Peregrine management that is abundantly clear to me is their single-minded, all-out effort to push Bavi to the finish line. They have dropped every other effort, wisely so IMO.

I am very critical of management's inability to share information with us. I think the IR department is defensive rather than helpful. This really irks me.

I have invested more money than I should in PPHM, because I approve of their approach to Bavi. There is no guarantee that Bavi will kick NSCLC butt in the Sunrise trial, but I like our odds. If it does as we expect, the long wait might not seem so bad.

GLTA, Paul

very, let me count the ways this particular post, like most of your others, should not be considered useful information.