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My momma always told me not to trade on holidays.
Did I listen? Of course not?
[16:25 USD/CHF: Hedgers Take Advantage Of Low Levels To Cover] New York,
November 22. Dealers reported an increase in multi-national corporate activity as the buck dropped to its lowest levels since end-August. Corporates were actively covering year-end dividend payments from offshore subsidiaries, as well as fixed asset balance sheet hedging. USD/CHF has bounced back from its 1.2257
low, to 1.2270, in what some dealers are describing as a "dead cat" bounce, whereas others are a little more cynical of the timing of this latest move. "It seems to me that if you really wanted to unwind carry trades that concerned you, you would not wait until the day before two of the three largest trading
centres were going to close to execute, and just days before the US investment banks close their books for the year" commented one old salt. Traders are wondering if this move has more to do with frustration at narrow trading ranges,throttled by option plays, and the opportunity to knock the dollar out of the box while liquidity is at an ebb - it"s an interesting observation.
The Dollar selloff was extremely exagerated by the holiday conditions. It could have gone either way. They picked a side and with momentum went with it.
That's it thats all!
There was a 50/50 chance.
The games we play ....
Brutal! Absolutely brutal.
Thu. 11/23 2:00am EUR German GDP q/q (f)
3:15am CHF Employment
4:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
4:00am EUR Current Account
Fri. 11/24 tentative EUR German CPI m/m (p)
4:30am GBP GDP q/q (p)
Alot of data still to be released this week.
The news out of Europe is not that good. Their exports went down because of the high EUR/USD rate. There are many forces at work here but the central bankers do not like the EUR this high.
I beleive volatilities will pick up in a couple of weeks bit for we range trade.
There are alot of EUR/USD DNT options 1.2700-1.2900 out there.
Alot of people will lose money if it breaks 1.2900
That is why I am holding. And like you said, even if it does break it will retrace.
You do not wanna know ... LOL!
I am in a pretty bad spot but I will hold.
At least I am collecting interest!
Jobless claims and Michigan will decide our fate for today. I hope it is good news cause I am long USD/CHF. May the best man win!
You mean long on both or short on both right?
FX Correlations (October): How Do Currencies Move In Relation To Each Other?
Here you go ...
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/fx_correlations/FX_Correlations__October___How_Do_11629...
EUR/USD 1.2900 is pretty much the line in the sand. If we see a CLEAR break then this baby is really goin up. Ebery bought their lottery tickets? I ahve been long USD/CHF for quite some time now.
At 50% odds I would ply FOREX anytime over the lottery!
HA! Great story! I am awake now!
American Economy
Pretty interesting. Good points of view.
Doom and gloom baby! We gotta buy some EUR!
LOL!
http://www.freeforexebooks.com/Audio/Jim_Puplava-Ask_the_Experts_with_Warren_Brusee_March-18-2006.mp...
Gross profit was $45,754 compared with $16,178 in September 2005, representing a 183% increase.
And do you know how much it COST THEM them to make that measly 45 grand?
Much more than the gross profit.
Read the company filings at sec.gov
They have a VERY LONG way to go before they become profitable.
Shame on you for MISLEADING all the newcomers and lurkers of the board!
Ultimatepick
Eurozone official resistance to a strong EUR will soon give way to efforts to promote a lower EUR. The EUR cannot break out from the 1.2500 - 1.2900 channel it is in. It is in a stalemate with the USD. Sure the Americans want the EUR to increase but the Europeans NEED to protect their exports. I believe the Europeans will come up with actions and ideas to lower the EUR/USD. It should be a battle of the central banks with us retail dudes in the middle making 20 pips profit at a time!
LOL !
French prime minister Villepin has some interesting comments :
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/11/14/business/EU_FIN_ECO_France_Euro_Zone.php
France's Villepin: Europe needs a 'monetary shield'
LABEGE, France: French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin on Tuesday called for euro-zone countries to devise a foreign exchange policy to promote growth and jobs and protect industry.
"Europe needs a monetary shield," Villepin said.
Citing the difficulties at European commercial jet maker Airbus as one example of the consequences of a strong euro, Villepin said "the euro permitted the creation of a stable environment between all European partners, but its current level penalizes some of our exports."
European aerospace companies are hurting because their costs are in euros, while they get paid in dollars for the products they make and the services they provide.
Today in Business
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On Advertising: Bolloré at the gate
"All the great trading powers have a foreign exchange policy, sometimes even an aggressive one," Villepin said. "We must not let the euro be used as an adjustable variable for global monetary equilibrium."
"Let's create a real foreign exchange strategy that integrates the targets of growth, protection of our industry and, of course, employment," Villepin said. "It's a major subject that we must address at the European level."
In a wide-ranging speech on the need to foster innovation in industry and thereby contribute to job creation, Villepin said the United States is dominating innovation because of "massive" financing from public and private sources, as well as a lowering of the barriers among researchers, entrepreneurs and financiers.
Villepin said there is a need for Europe to make a clear choice in favor of defending its interests, "rather than remaining the only trading power in the world that doesn't have effective rules against the excesses of globalization."
The foreign minister said European industry needs large industrial groups with a global reach, citing Airbus parent company EADS as one example and the future Franco-Belgian group Gaz de France-Suez as another.
It is "imperative" that European rules go in the right direction, especially as regards competition regulations, he said.
"There must be a better balance between the objectives of consolidating industry and defending consumers," he said.
Villepin reaffirmed his proposal to create a special European representative for energy to act as an energy diplomat with non-EU countries. He also has proposed a coordination of strategic energy reserves among EU countries.
Noting that the United States and China both have systems for defending strategic interests in trade, he called for a more systematic effort by the European Commission to apply a principle of reciprocity when it identifies imbalances in either trade, capital or investment flows, as well as in accounting norms.
Villepin said France must aim to get its economy growing at an annual rate of 3 percent, and should target an unemployment rate of 5 percent. The unemployment rate has been hovering around 9 percent.
The government has forecast 2006 GDP growth of as much as 2.5 percent, but after a flat performance in the third quarter, most private economists have scaled back their forecasts to around 2.3 percent.
That is great but next time you can maybe go to a broker that charges you WAY LESS interest than FXCM. Their rollovers are killer. I started out with Forex.com and am still with them cause their rollovers are decent with a 200:1 account.
Here are some samples:
11/15/2006 5:00:00 PM 0022945 Buy EUR 20,000.00 1.281 USD -25,620.00
11/15/2006 5:01:00 PM 0022945 Sell EUR -20,000.00 1.281180 USD 25,623.60
Shorting EUR/USD makes me 1.281180-1.281 /3 = .6 pips (divided by 3 cause it was a wednesday)
10/24/2006 5:00:00 PM 22474216 Sell EUR -50,000.00 1.2565 USD 62,825.00
10/24/2006 5:01:00 PM 22474216 Buy EUR 50,000.00 1.256600 USD -62,830.00
When going long EUR/USD they charge me 1 pip interest! Those bastards! But since I am on a "high roll" account they warned me that I will get charged crazy interest if I was on the wrong end of the carry.
Maybe you should look into getting a "low roll" account and go long on the EUR/USD with forex.com or something.
Hate to see you losing money on interest charges. That really sucks.
Hope this helps!
Ultimatepick
Very good for you! I did the calculation for myself and your cost for 80 lots of EUR/USD is $95400 real american coin.
You got balls holding for so long.
You weren't kidding about getting the kids through college!
I salute you brother! may you make millions!
I am not there yet but I am slowly getting there!
Ultimatepick
Naw he is telling the truth. Guess you are too LAZY to go to sec.gov and see for yourself.
All you new people wanting to invest in this POS ... LOOK OUT!
Read their financials and see for yourself.
Don't listen to these idiot (paid) pumpers. Go and see for yourself and you will discover what a disaster this company is.
The proof is in the pudding ... uhhmmm financials!
Good luck!
Ultimatepick
Go ahead and THROW GOOD MONEY AFTER BAD.
You are gonna get really rich that way.
Good luck ... you are REALLY gonna need it!
Ultimatepick
I found this quite interesting. You GOTTA LISTEN TO THIS!
Alright ... what currency will go up and go down in the next few years 2006-2008(when the last baby boomer turns 47)???
It's an interview of Tony Robbins, who is brilliantly explaining the future of the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar.
http://www.secretforexsociety.com/TonyRobbinsInterview.html
Some people looking for fight with the coppers? They had nothing to do today ...Like motley crue says in Girls, Girls, Girls
Friday night and I need a fight My motorcycle and a switchblade knife ...
lol!
Agreed! Can I ask you why you are holding EUR/USD for so long? You pay intest every day.
Do you think it is worth it? You could have covered when it got to 1.2900 and rebought at say 1.2700.
Maybe you have 2 accounts ... one for long term trades and one for short term hourly chart trades. Is that the case?
I am beginning to see more and more that I need a second account for the long term trades.
Thanks for sharing.
Ultimatepick
Dude, no matter how shitty the numbers out of the US are, there is no way the people holding US dollars will let their money go down in value. You gotta look at the big picture. The housing numbers are down in the US and they are so ALL OVER THE WORLD. If the US goes down so will the rest of the world.
The way I see it .... people are more scared of the US having a HARD LANDING than anything else. That is why they bailed the week of nov 6-10and sold off the dollar. The releases this week showed that if the US will go down it will be soft.
I am not saying the EUR will go down to 1.20 .... it will down a couple hundered pips where we can make lots of money and then possibly go up.
You stubborn fool. When are you gonna get that they OWE more than 4 MILLION dollars and do not even make enough PROFIT to cover their expenses much less pay down the debt. You are a pumping fool employed by who knows to promote this company. 15 million in revenues means nothing! Their GROSS PROFIT is MINISCULE.
Ultimatepick
EUR/USD correcting and on it's way down. The setup still seems perfect. What do you guys think? Am I full of it?
I have been known to be wrong from time time ... right Atagalnce?
Actually wrong most of the time .. lol!
Happy trading! May the FOREX gods award you millions.
I guess I can go to bed now ... my EUR/JPY should be good to go to at least 150.00 if not 149.20.
[08:52 EUR/JPY: All The Hallmarks Of Another Barrier Play] London, November 16.
A healthy bull run from levels around 151.10 but again 151.50 proves to be a level just too far. PBOC"s Wu set the stage for a stronger Yen but the market is now well conditioned with regard to the reserve diversification story. Interestingly the Asian market continues to be more sensitive to any mention of
reserve shifts. Away from the Chinese rhetoric the other main issue was provided by the BOJ with its rate announcement and press call. No surprises from the Bank with no change in policy and a less hawkish than expected delivery from Governor Fukui.
EUR/JPY has been rejected at 151.47, just shy of the rumoured 151.50 barriers. The pullback has reached 151.33 and fresh bids have surfaced. As we saw last session with EUR/CHF the market is likely to keep knocking on the option barrier door and it will probably open today but profit taking usually cancels out any expected stop loss follow through when knock-outs are targeted. On the option expiry front large 149.20 and 150.75 strikes roll-off today.
[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]
Elderwolf, for GBP/USD do you think they will pull one last short squeeze towards 1.9100 since the GBP CPI data tonight must be high since they raised interest rates? And there is talk that the German GDP should be good. Also retails sales for USD have to suck. What is your view?
Thanx!
Ultimatepick
GBP/USD - Waiting for the trendline break and then open your parachutes. Look at the pronouced bearish divergence on the RSI and MACD. Is this a great setup or what?
It might have one last run to 1.9180 but I doubt it.
The British exporters would really hate a 1.9200 GBP/USD going into the US holidays.
EUR negative news is starting to hit the wires LOL! Just like clockwork. It is density ... uhmmm ... destiny I tell you. :)
Get ready to short the EUR. If the data out of the US is goodish this week watch out. I bet you the Q3 German GDP is gonna suck like the French. Most times you know the outcome of the news before it is released .. this may be one of those weeks.
cya kids
==============================================================
[10:39 NEWS: ECB To Wait For Clear Inflation Evidence After Dec Hike] London,November 13. The EU"s Lobby UNICE Head has noted that before the European Central Bank embark on a series of rates moves in 2007 they must for wait for "clear evidence of inflation". Matthew.Foster-Smith@Thomson.com
===============================================================
EURUSD: Shooting Star Pattern Characterises Reversal
Monday, November 13, 2006 5:50:28 AM EUR:Weaker
USD:Positive
Author: Taso Anastasiou
An interesting observation in EURUSD suggests that the past few months range-bound activity is likely to continue to dominate and that we are about to see a period of USD strength unfold with pair close to the top of its broad range. The following are the points that support this argument:
1. Each time the Euro has turned since its high on June 5, the turn or reversal in the trend has been confirmed by a Japanese candlestick pattern known as a SHOOTING STAR. This pattern is characterised by a sharp rally in the direction of the up-trend and then followed by an inability to hold onto gains which forces a close near the base of the days range. The result in price action has been a move towards the base of the range i.e. towards the 1.2500 to 1.2450 area.
The reason why the dollar lost so much value last week was a knee jerk reaction by the retail traders and small specs to the china comments. I am sure the dude is getting a beating as we speak. Maybe chinese water torture.
The actually spot number of any currency pair varies depending on the broker. Forex.com registered 1.2899 for example. The real spot price is never portrayed correctly for us retail traders. You need to look at the interbank feed for the spot price and if you look at the recent releases you can see that the 1.2900 barrier remains.
From FXCM :
[01:36 EUR/USD: Market Eyeing 1.2900 Option Barrier] Sydney, November 13: The EUR/USD has edged above hourly resistance around 1.2870, as the USD/JPY is leading the USD broadly lower in Asia this morning. There is talk of a EUR/USD option barrier at 1.2900 that was defended on Friday when the high was 1.2898.
There are a few stops above 1.2900 and the next level of resistance is found at the August 21 high around 1.2940. The EUR/USD trades 1.2870/75. --
john.Noonan@thomson.com
[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]
What feed are you looking at? FXCM? They are a joke!
Look up an ECN and you will see it was 1 or 2 pips shy. The 1.2900 barriers are still in place. They will probably be broken in the near future though.
But then again ....
The China Factor.
We are getting some juicy discussions on the board. Love it.
One other thing to consider.
China has approximately 1 trillion in USD reserves. The Chinese are not stupid to let the USD go down in value too fast. In fact I firmly believe that the chinese dude that opened his big fat mouth last week got a beating from his counterparts.
Yes they will diversify but they will do it SLOWLY and it will not be a rush for the exits.
The USD will probably go up before the year is out so they can get more EUR,JPY,GBP for their USD.
Like Elderwolf said in one of his previous posts ... go for 15 pips on big lots ... and who gives a shit what happens in the long term. That is how the big boys make their money.
Ultimatepick
Mister Lava .... not to nitpick but we FAILED to break 1.2900 ... it came a pip or 2 shy.
Large option barrier at 1.2900 ... it is gonna be difficult to break it
And we can simply ignore the huge bearish divergence on the RSI?
Very nice post.
Based on what? The shitty data that keeps coming out of the Eurozone? French GDP for the third quarter was a whopping 0% increase. The head and shoulders pattern will hold and the bearish RSI divergence on the EUR/USD WEEKLY chart proves that.
At this point in time the only currency that will appreciate is the JPY.
All this is a play by the central banks to pump up the EUR to 1.30 ish and then take it down hard. All the finance ministers and their idiotic comments are taken out of context by the sheep traders. ie Governor Zhou Xiaochuan last week.
I completely agree with the assement below:
EUR/USD Positioning
Speculative positioning is correct for the meat of the trend but the herding nature of market participants eventually leads to a 'bubble' and a top (or bottom). In other words, extreme positioning inevitably leads to a correction / reversal. IMM futures data indicates that speculative Euro longs topped out on 8/11. Notice that the previous record for Euro longs preceded the 2005 decline in EURUSD.
Gross profit $479,283 for the year
Total operating expenses for the year ended March 31, 2006 increased by $1,327,910 to $2,327,238 from $999,328 for the year ended March 31, 2005, due principally to an increase in expense charges for stock issued for services to consultants to $247,100 from $8,000 and to two executive officers to $719,200 from $0, and employee compensation to $526,241 from $316,926.
They are losing more and more money!
Stop pumping this you frackin moron!
Can you imagine GBP keeps rates steady on Thursday?
Saddam Hussein Sentenced to Death
http://politics.slashdot.org/politics/06/11/05/1415207.shtml
Man! The riots this will cause. It will be an interesting month in Iraq.
Kinda makes you wonder why the verdict came out now before the midterm elections!!!!
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm