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TMDI being the David faces the challenge of upending Goliath, but that's not to say it cant be done. So ISRG has a head start, so what? In the scope of things, they are validating the market and I believe TMDI will have a competitive advantage in that ISRG customers are HUNGRY for competition, and TMDI offers a smaller profile and arguably better (instrument wise) alternative at a lower cost. 2 arms is fine and they can articulate like snakes where Si is like 2 jointed rigid sticks.You don't have to have a $2.5 million Xi to run SPORT. Customers are sick of ISRG dictating prices because they have a monopoly. Un-docking from the bohemoth is just what the market needs.
Yea, a turd tree
Thanks for the clarification, I stand corrected. This is good news!
The counter argument to that point is good tech can still go by the wayside for a number of reasons, e.g. beta - market adoption of vhs, lasersisc - sabotage by disgruntled employees, pinto - design flaw, to name a few odd examples tumbling around in my head. The risk is high at this point still...why I'm out until more points of validation come to pass. I still believe in the tech and am hopeful it reaches it's full potential. It's much needed in the market for both patient care and economics.
Another consideration, and maybe I'm thinking this because I'm still early in my career and more " 'po" than others here, but the 2018 minimum standard deduction was raised to $24k/married filing jointly...even with losses I won't breach that deduction amount. Perhaps many people are easing up on the tax loss sales for the same reason?
We all saw this coming! No shockers here
Am I the only one who suspects willie12345 is Honeycomb777's other login, and he's just having a conversation with his other personality?
I worked really hard to earn that share count.
You raise some valid concerns but I'm not convinced of a conspiracy. It seems the company is just not yet ripe for the plucking. There may be a strategic rationale for no poison pill - has the board been asked why?
To describe Trixie yes. It will never be a candy bar, always a turd. I'd not describe TMDI that way, I believe it's a seed. Could be a tree one day.
It's not so much the price as the internal rate of return. Since any asset should yield a profit, it's the best use of capital that is of concern to firms. A lot of buyers could justify a $1b purchase if the yield is favorable. The opportunity cost of a high risk $25m purchase is great. They could use that same money for cash flow positive assets. Current state it's a guaranteed negative return with no guarantee that will turn around anytime soon. To encapsulate: in general firms care about rate of return, not necessarily price of asset.
Speaking generally, SPORT is not worth it's weight in salt until it has proven it can sell and will generate a profit. Look at trixie...FDA approved and no buyers..has not proven a profitable acquisition yet. We all see the potential in sport but Savage was right, buying a majority stake means they now have to dedicate resources to oversight. Its more cost effective to let it sink or swim and if it swims buy it as a fully functional unit that will cash flow from the start. But what do I know.
Spoke with medtronic high ups today. They ARE releasing a multiport robot next year apparently. Not sure how this would bode for Titan - if medtronic wanted a full portfolio - that is to say single and multi port - to fully compete with intuitive, it would make sense to acquire titan . And the timing is coincidental.
First rule of finance: the value of any asset is the present value of all future cash flows. IP in and of itself comprises only part of the picture, it's how well the firm utilized the IP that builds a high valuation. I agree the value of TITAN will grow to the billions, hard to say what % if that will be atteibuted to IP. It's usually a smallish % of firm value.
Ha I live not far from that building. Fills me with rage every time I drive by it!
Once again Mc is thrilled. Anyone want to play a drinking game on the conference...shot every time Big Mac says thrilled?
Just saw this... bid ask are higher than mark....some people knew this ahewd of the announcement?
No kidding...$0.07 is a steal.
TMDI was mentioned on benzinga's top movers yesterday for the 9.37% increase, and the outperform rating from northland was reiterated. Good times ahead. I am anticipating a raise Friday but it's getting harder to stay on the sidelines. Seems a leap is around the corner.
I played with some rough numbers and a long who bought a few years back at $2.50 would be at ~97.5% loss currently. It will take a share price of $75 to break even...one consequence of the R/S that i tried to elaborate but probably didn't do well...sure the % gain or loss os ultimately what matters but it's a lot easier to get back to purchase price if all you have to climb is $2.30 versus $73.08. Its going to take a lot longer after the R/S even though it's the same % you need to regain.
Apple just became the first company to eclipse $1trillion market cap, so how could that be? According to TD JP morgan chase's market cap is $381.5 billion.
Not yet because when I do get back in, it will be bigly. Not ready yet, I think my opportunity will be greater later.
As long as their wampum spends, I don't care who buys us out!
Yea looked like a poor man's SPORT. The instruments articulated only at specific joints, looked clunky and inefficient. Google doesn't yield any news on it since 2015, I wonder if they gave up.
Touché...yes the line is complimentary to their existing portfolio but it proves my greater point that Stryker's strategy is growth through horizontal integration. They have the capital and leveraging ability. Ortho is their strong suit but they also do endo scopes and equipment alongside OR room equipment/integration. It wouldn't be un-complimentary to acquire sport and it would give them a competitive advantage through 1. Owning the technology and 2. Leveraging ability to combine offers with other OR equipment for greater discounts, nettting more capital sales.
Thats the hard part...no one knows the bottom and there's a very good chance you cannot time it perfectly. I have no clue as to when they will announce but my hope is that Mac will "delight" (as he likes to say) us with an announcement ahead of schedule. I don't think it will be before 2019 though.
Our beta since June is -6, if that holds, a downward market correction is welcome! I believe we will not be closely correlated with the market for a long time, if ever. ISRG's beta in the same time frame is 6.
Probably until the design freeze announcement.
Well I feel validated
Thanks. Good point. The tarrifs are leverage plays by the US, not likely to last as most countries are backing down from their counter tariffs. I know Trudeau is peacocking now but it's empty. He will play ball. I'm not too worries about lasting high tarrifs harming SPORT's prospects.
In terms of my short term net worth, I can't bear the risk any longer and have fared well with some alternate investments ( PM me if anyone wants to talk about the other tickers.) But, here's to hoping it will be quite the opposite in 10+ years!
A. My theory is, yes we are at a high recession risk point according to the "experts". But they suffer from group think, lack of imagination, and general delusion. I assert there MAY be a small recession, if not a breif contraction (<2 quarters neg gdp growth) as a correction at some point in the near future, But there may not be and in the greater scheme of things, there is no reason the US economy should not keep chugging along at the same or better pace. As long as the Feds keep getting out of the way by slashing tax and regulation, business should thrive. The business of America is business. So i don't believe in 2 years when SPORT rolls into the ORs, the economy will be weak.
B. Even if it were the case that the economy was stifled in 2 years, I doubt it would be to the extent that would destroy TMDIs valuation. I think it would take an industry event/shift that rendered the tech useless. Otherwise it should still be a good value proposotion, especially in light of the monster cost of ISRG.
Thank you 66 that means a lot coming from you. I could say the exact same about you - always enjoy your posts and your glass half full take on things. I am of the same persuasion...life is what you make of it and its too short to let things drag you down. No matter what you can always improve your situation with the right mindset. I think most would agree you are a pillar on this board who keeps it anchored.
It's going to be a longtai before this stock hits $60
Storz makes sense in that regard, they see themselves as the lap scope leader. But they have not done much in the way of expansion and they are a private company so it's hard to grasp their strategy. I'd guess on the boston consulting scale they're a cash cow...probably not a dog.
Thanks for the clarification, this makes sense. I agree and have long said no one would buy out until proven sales growth. Are there any companies you can inagine would see SPORT as a good fit, once its an established technology? Someone mentioned applied - they are hungry for growth and it would be a boon for them. JnJ and Medtronic are some obvious endo behemoths that could easily take on the investment. BD does not traditionally compete in surgery but they recently acquired Bard. They are growing like wild.
That doesn't make sense. The cost of training/hiring a sales force is not a good reason to forego a profitable investment opportunity. Relationships can be built, reps who have relationships can be hired. Also you're contradicring yourself. First you say they don't compete in the arena, then you say the reps just push through orders because they have little competition. Which is it? The reps in the long established total joints arena, about whom it could be said just sit on cases and push orders through, did not preclude the acquision of Mako. They would have had to learn how to cover the new technology. You are not making a compelling case as to why Stryker wouldn't be a good buyout candidate for Titan. You are just saying things.
Hit send too early....anyway stryker endo and stryjer instruments cover a vroad array of lap surgical products.
My friend, this is incorrect. Stryker instruments - lap suction/irrigation/instruments, lap fluid management (Neptune), scopes, towers, pneumatic scope holders (was
Great post - articulate, on point, especially about the sale/licensing. I agree being a warrant holder is a bettter strategy at this point. I see the service agreements that come through for these devices and they are making a killing on them. I have a hard time believing Stryker doesn't have a strategy in place - even if it's just licensing the tech. They are such a large player. Curious why you mentioned ACMI seperately from Olympus. They're part of Olympus for many years now and also being in the industry, I don't hear anyone call the Gyrus/ACMI products by that manufacturer except the old timers who "grew up" with it.
Do we anticipate only one more raise before commercialization?