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Agreed. Our first pallets are coming in next week. Reminds me of last September when I picked up our first KGKG pallet. I was only the 6th distro at the time. Fast forward 8 months, and they have 50 distros now, and more requesting product every day. VATE will get there, but without a beverage industry pro like Chris at the helm, they will undoubtedly be slower to 50 distros. Soon as revs start pouring in, VATE will get their pop too. Until then, KGKG's current run, could be the place to be for you, especially if you can get a good price before the next leg up.
This could be a good re-entry for folks.
Very nice. I just read it, and realized I completely missed that email or overlooked it as I had already sold and was out of position. Thats on me, asking for an analysis then making an impulsive emotionally driven trade before reviewing it, not a very smart move on my part.
Either way, looks like I was wrong here, you were right, at least so far. Glad we are all making money on our facorite OTC stock though. This is a good example of why people shouldn't listen to everyone on the internet, including me, many of us are amateurs or educated amateurs, know enough to be dangerous kind of thing. I know for one that I am wrong as much as I am right.
Luho and his group do technical analysis to hit projections. This is the smart way to trade. With my limited time for analysis, I look at a few basic indictators and make a judgement based on these few indicators. I was wrong though the catalyst to all of this is what has been driving my recent sentiment, which realistically, the underlying catalyst doesnt matter if the trend continues. I still think we should look at what I emailed you too. There has to be something to it.
I just hope we dont get the bearish doji star candle today. To be fair, she is overdue for a hard consolidation day, not these soft intraday resets. Then again, does this really matter to those who are long? Of course not, its a micro snapshot in time. Risky to buy this high up on all time highs, but if volume can keep picking up may end green. Tomorrow will be interesting to see where we end the week.
Luho/anyone know which wave of the Elliot Wave theory she is in right now? I recall last fall she dipped hard after initial run, but then surged again within a few days. I think the wave theory completed like 5-7 waves back then right?
I'm still overall bullish, just not right this moment.
Cheap shares always good, no agenda here, just calling what I'm seeing, on a trading forum. The beautiful thing is that agreement isnt required.
But sentiment on this board doesn't matter. It's not the "positive only" board. If you want that join the nutters on the FB group. (I.e. chip mouth guy, shirtless guy, same pics every day, etc...). Positive, neutral, and negative views allowed here and welcomed, though we try to stay a positive group since that's the position most of us have, but that's not a requirement here as long as its within TOS.
Yeah must be rough seeing new all time highs after 1 of his videos. Whatever explanation it takes to fit the myth though right? I dont know why I even bother replying. It's clear as day the myth is fake, irrefutable after today's action.
Its misinformation, I'd ignore that post. The only relevance it has is the 900m auth. The splits if you check the date are ancient and pre-KGKG, literally meaningless.
I do recall that post. I made 1 similar when I dropped a big chunk of my original .018 investment after the monster run last fall. Had a kid on the way (due any day now literally), and fix up our house for sale, pay off some bill's, etc...
All of this stuff is a matter of perspective. I do tend to lean more towards long, heck, I was 3 months from the 1 year mark on my original shares, but realized that I dont have to ride the dips and still make money. I'm by no means an expert swing trader, and lately been holding for a few months at a time. Sure I sold a little early but still made bank... for the 3rd time now. It's all good, like they say, "you do you".
I'm getting burned out on watching daily, so next re-entry I will buy and check back every month or 2 to see where things are at, like many folks here have posted before. Really no need to check daily as a long if you dont plan to sell until 2020 and beyond, unless one enjoys the chat of course.
"Yes. It’s going up. We will take profits when we see fit. "
I completely agree.
"Wait. So you reference “doubling” but yet downplay holding long term. To double, would imply a hold. Usually long term."
So I actually have a very good example. A young buddy of mine at work found out about my distro biz from another coworker and was asking me about it. I told him about my biz and how I got started as an investor first. He had never traded before but loved my story, so he opened an etrade account, funded it, and bought in at .078, which funny enough it dropped to .075 that day before the start of the run. Keep in mind he literally bought in like a week ago. He sold today at .132. Yes not quite double, but it was a month's wages for him and hes going to Europe in December, which is now paid for.
"Not everyone.....wait a second. Not wasting my time here."
Not sure why this would anger anyone, it's a very generalized, basic true comment. Nothing more, nothing less.
"If I’m long, wouldn’t I expect consolidation to be part of the normal process? And wouldn’t volume be more valuable than time? "
Of course, but not everyone is a long was my point.
I'll be honest Luho, I think you missed the entire purpose of the post. It was to make a point that there are multiple perspectives and ways of thinking to every method of trading. Not every method works for every person. Opinions, methods, are all welcome on the boards. That's the beauty of a trading forum.
Everyone here needs to keep in mind that everyone has opinions, whether it's short term, intermediate, or long. This is a trading forum and opinions WILL be stated on every front, we dont have to agree with each other but respect each others opinions. If they are factless or baseless, that's a different story, BUT technically they are still allowed per iHub TOS. I disagree with that, but it's not my platform or rules.
Stating analysis for short term is as useless to long term traders as analysis for long term is as useless for short term traders. Doesnt make anyone right or wrong, just depends on your play.
I think 99% of us know where this is going long term, and many will take profits. Taxes are almost meaningless if you are doubling your money every trade... yes there are most definitely benefits to holding to get in on the long term capital gains taxes, but that's not for everyone. Not everyone wants to hold a position on a Pink sheet stock for 5 years, no matter how godly it is or where it most definitely be in 5 years, that's just how it is. Not everyone enjoys riding consolidation phases. That's the beauty of an opinion and freedom to trade any method we want.
The best traders are able to consistently buy low and sell high, that is the game we play. I also heard from a little birdie that the news releases by other companies that mention KGKG will be gone soon. :) Go KGKG!!! (and Go Bucks! ;)
Fair enough, solid play.
My next buy I plan to keep long term. Becoming too tough to time a perfect flip on the upswing, and end up leaving money on the table. Long term we know where this is going. I have no clue how you and Luho can keep millions of shares without some big chunk profit taking. Would drive me nuts as a daily watcher. Lol I know those dips dont feel too good at your share count level, but I bet days like today are glorious.
Lol I remember you guys talking me out of dropping my 401k into it haha. I shouldn't have listened! In all seriousness, you guys gave great advice, only invest what you can afford to lose. All about managing risk. I just wish I didnt slap those .018s at the time and waited for the .01 to get in, which was around the time RSP was screaming sub penny. Glad he was wrong. :)
I remember the DD on the VATE asset that Luho sounded crazy on, turned out to be true!
We'ce seen some good times. I feel naked without my shares, she needs to dip soon, so I can get back in LOL!
Off the top of my head, SLNN Dec 2015, SHMP Feb/Mar 2019, KGKG Sep/Oct 2018. Few more times since for KGKG. You can tell because every big run has been during a time they report a change in share structure. Even small runs, where she goes up a penny out of no where, you check the SS and sure enough, a change. That's OK though, goal here is to make money, and every time they issue/convert shares, the PPS sky rockets out of no where, sometimes paired with news but nothing crazy.
Last fall, we had weeks after the hiring of VP news, then she went on a fantastic tear similar to this, low and behold, SS increased I believe 160m at that time. Yes, dilution long term lowers the shares value since more shares, but upon conversion/issuance, it has a counter effect as the MM tries to get their client top dollar for the shares, like we are seeing now. I'm sure L2 shows this behavior too. Most of the volume is from MMs and not ETRF or other known brokerages I bet.
Dilution shouldnt be a scary word, that's the entire purpose of raising capital and being on the market in the first place, as long as it's used for good things, such as a new truck for distribution, branding, production runs for product, etc... just be prepared for when it stops as it will drop back down to consolidate and stabilize, guessing around 9 or 10 within the next week.
I did sell too early, though based on previous history where .12 was had been a huge resistance point, and the fact the all time high was .125, I would have been right to sell in the .11s like I did, especially without huge news to back the volume up. I've always been a neutral voice on this board (especially the early days), sure usually pumping most of the time, as I love this company and sell their products, but it makes no sense to me to hold through consolidations like I used too. It does suck leaving money on the table, but it was the smart move based on the way its traded until today. I still doubled my money since I last did this, so it's all good. I'll get back in on a dip, it will happen.
Tbh, its dilution. MMs getting the top dollar for their client (KGKG). Until they are done it will keep doing this. I estimate about 100m in dilution so far, so they may be close to done, meaning it will drop like a brick here soon when that volume falls off and no more shares to convert/issue, or Q1 hits and people see she isnt a $100m+ market cap yet. That's my personal short term analysis.
For long term, it's going to the moon. Really depends on the play you are trying to make. This will be a national brand by end of year, and who know what deals come with that. Exciting times at Kona, but people need to keep their heads, be realistic, its OK to take gains, because the days she drops, its never fun to watch gains disappear. Sentiment on the board will change. I'd wait for the dip at this stage, if you plan to hold the position for even a little bit. This is just a preview of where she will be stable in a month or 2 :)
Anyone keeping count? Clay is 2 for 4 green days, and today was an all time high with huge volume. I think this ends the myth quite firmly. :)
It will drop as it has in the past.
Usually day of or after. See 3/28 for an example.
It will likely dip to 9s or 10s. We are at or near peak unless more shares to dilute for top price.
No, just giving potential scenarios. It depends on the size of their distros. We are only 1 of their distros, really small still but shooting for 250 outlets within the next year. Keep in mind we may only be 20+ outlets, but we went the quality over quantity route. So most of our customers will purchase way more than the 2 cases per month that I broke out for you. Plus our new full time position has sales goal of 5 outlets per week for the first year, to help us saturate our Milwaukee market. I just updated our FB page too. Hoping to have our shipment within the next week.
I havent broken out the numbers for adding VATE yet, but for us, looking at 250 outlets within first 365 days. Say 2 cases (24 units) avg each outlet, per month, conservatively. An established 250 outlet distro, would go through 60,000 units in 5 months. :)
Say there are 5 distros each with 250 outlets, drinking the 2 case per month average. The 60,000 units would be gone in a month.
Say 1 distro has 1,250 outlets, could be gone in a week, assuming they have staff to flush through their entire supply chain, and all outlets want the product
It's fun to look at how fast things will roll as they bring on distros, especially larger ones. Fun times ahead. Hope to have our split pallet within the next week.
Believe it or not, the scale of production isnt an issue yet. Its forecasting. KGKG has to forecast production runs, but a it's been difficult due to all the new distros, and learning their respective markets and what they will need.
I know I can't forecast accurately yet, though I have been breaking out numbers for our new full time position we are adding, with a sales goal of 5 outlets per week. Thing is until we have all established our markets, its impossible to accurately forecast what we actually need. 1st year goal is 250 outlets and a 3:1 Kona to HighDrate for sales. Avg of 3 cases HD and 1 case Kona per outlet, per month. Yes this is conservative but it's an average. I k ow shops that will do 20-30/mo and others 1-2/mo, at least here in Milwaukee so far.
Adding VATEs new product lines as well as additional products will make us more than profitable. We are also working on a potential shop above one of the partner's offices, to sell CBD/hemp etc.. the idea is that the shop can help with additional revenue and cash flow for the biz, especially short term. Plus events during the summer. We should be self sustained and profitable by end of summer, easily imo. Just need to keep establishing our customer base while also sourcing unique/niche products. KGKG and VATE are a perfect start for us!
Oh you mean those 5s, we keep hearing about?
Everytime there is dilution, we see the PPS run like this I am not surprised. It's funny how short term it raises PPS but long term lowers it.
Lol. Probably borrowing shares all the way up too. Gettin that squeeze on. It's all good though, it's going back to 5s right? Itd only have to bring a bajillion support levels including the 200 sma to get there hahaha
No. He posts after trading hours the next day it went down (Fri), then again posted after trading hours on Fri, today it went up. This isnt the first time it's gone up after vids, so it's all good. I would expect most of the time it goes down since the stocks he reviews are already on a tear. I think tomorrow we will have some consolidation, regardless if he posts or not.
You know I couldnt resist Knife LOL! It's all good, we are making some great money here yet again.
So im hist gonna point out that we got a clay vid on Fri. How is that myth working out for folks? KGKG was a rocket today!
Loving the volume this morning too.
Picked up some .03's this morning. Bottom seems in or close enough, she has to churn up eventually, especially with beverage season in full swing and 2 new hot products available.
Received a call from RM yesterday. Sounds like a lot has changed since our preorder 2 months ago. Pallets of the CBD coffee are 104 cases not 250 like originally planned. Basically the manufacturer palletized the product and determined 104 cases of these 24 packs. As a distro, we get an avg unit price of ~$1.80/unit. I usually like 35% margins so that puts my sell to retailer avg unit price at ~$2.50/unit (40% technically). Retailers usually like 50%-100%, so these will sell for ~$4-$5.5/unit to consumers. That sounds expensive at first for a 12 oz can until you remember the CBD raises costs, and of course premium coffee.
I talked to the business partners last night, and after they saw the web site and product packaging, I was told to get the full pallet! Shipping is included on a full pallet, nice bonus! I just hope when the time comes for a reorder, we can get it without delays. Time will tell. Glad things are starting to work out. I always said I wanted this product as I know it will be a hot seller. Hoping to get half tea/half coffee on the pallet.
Lol. Though I know you know we will never be at their level. KGKG wants to keep their hemp/CBD niche, even if it's only 1% of $3.1b market. They are perfectly fine with $31m per year. I totally understand that. Sound familiar? :)
Done deal. For those interested, I just put another order of HighDrate in, and not these weak 110 case pallets like these new guys are getting! I'm still on the OG 120 case pallets! LOL! Better margins to spread the shipping costs per case by ordering slightly bigger anyways. The fun news though, is that this pallet will have the new Blue Island Punch and Sour Apple with it! Expected delivery is 2-3 weeks.
On a side note, has anyone noticed the tropical coconut tastes better than it did in the old days? That's because it is slightly sweeter and pineapple like now. I wouldnt be surprised to see it renamed to reenergize the flavor with existing retailers who may have struggled with it originally :) I can tell you that 1 of my bigger shops, now carries the tropical coconut again after the tweak.
There's my distro tidbit for the day, it's been awhile. Haha!
Fair enough on the boiler room theory, as I cant prove that of course. I'm not going to dig through thousands of posts to find the 2 times it went up. I'm sure its lopsided where it goes red more than green after a vid since the vids come out when stocks are on fire. Also with all this negative stigma and rumor spreading over the years, maybe some truth in the way that people associate his bids with the negative stigma, so they sell based on that alone, who knows on that though. Just saying, from what I've seen, heard, even researched about the guy, it's all a myth. Yes part of that is opinion, but part is fact too.
His paid subscribers literally request this crap because they are novice. Sure for us it's a recap but for them it's a learning experience they pay for, to help them understand support/resistance. He doesnt say, "this stock is going down, or this stock is going up", he stays neutral even responding to my comment, and states the facts.
Last fall he was here alot, and I remember calling it out, and people still were ignorant. Facts aren't opinions. It blows my mind how simple the explanation is, and no one gets it. He does vids on hot stocks, hot stocks always consolidate at some point, usually by the time a vid is out it's already rising or at its peak. Think of when you first started trading, how many times did you join a rally just for the stock to take a dump the next day? Its poor timing but we all look for an excuse instead of being honest with ourselves that we made a bad decision and should have waited for the consolidation.
Why would there be alot of requests for a vid to analyze a stock that is flat? Of course the stocks he does vids on are hot, and all hot stocks MUST consolidate, simple as that. The poor guy has dealt wwith this stigma for so long he even has a bid up on his site about the Clay myth, eexplaining it in detail.
Or could it be that all of this clay talk is off topic?!?! Or is it a conspiracy too now?
False, I know of at least 2 times it went up, but no one comments unless it goes down to fuel the myth. It's literally superstitious non-sense.