"They actually have a very positive cash flow"

Not sure what you mean by this. They have no revenue. No revenue automatically means negative cash flow.

I agree on the low debt; but low cash in combo with a nice cash burn every quarter in combo with a drug that so far only failed trails: i'm sure you can do the math here.

Good luck!

dry eye disease failed in May 2015, allergic conjunctivitis failed in Jan 2016. ebio has nothing immediate left in the pipeline.

they present the data because if they want to give this drug another try, they need money (and lots of it). to get money they need to keep their share price up until they do an offering.

previously, EBIO announced it was looking at all options. when talking about a catalyst: this definitely was one. however, now the future seems pretty clear all of a sudden, with no real catalyst in the horizon for a long long time.

no you might have misread that report. they paid off a loan of 14.9 million, which you need to deduct. do a search in the filing on "Silicon Valley Bank" and you'll read what i mean.

that pr is pretty interesting.

suggests EBIO wants to go on developing Isunakinra, despite it failing a Phase 3 (which, last time they talked about, they considered dropping). it sounds like they're thinking of cherrypicking the trial data and are considering doing a different set of trials with a new (smaller) target group.

not sure why investors are loving this though. that pretty much tells us the company is not going to be sold/liquidated/whatever and it will need a boatload of funding (and therefore more dilution) to fund these trials as they have nowhere near enough cash to do this, with yet another couple of years of waiting ahead, and a smaller target group eventually looming.

the stock did 2.50 - 3.00 awaiting phase 3 results previously, now they're much further back in the process, with not enough cash and a medicine which already flunked a phase 3 and now might/might not work for a much smaller part of the patient population.

let me repeat: they don't want the ships, as they can't PAY them. those ships are ready, Paragon is trying whatever it can NOT to accept delivery as they have NO money.

because Paragon doesn't have any cash to actually pay anything back. that's why the only way they get any financing right now is by doing a convertible loan in which the party loaning them the money is allowed to convert the loan into stock against a 33% discount to the share price. the loaning party makes a nice profit dumping stock, and the loan is paid off that way.

just review the transaction done last January to see how this works: http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=11132100

the company wins (gets 500K to pay management), the loaning party wins (gets to buy shares 33% below the market price and then sell it in the open market). the only loser is the shareholders who gets 1. diluted, 2. the loaning party taking down the share price by massive selling.. everybody's a winner, except you guys.

but.. how come you are replying to this? after you send me a few insults over PM yesterday you claimed you had blocked me?

sure.

with regards to your first question: creditors (bank, debt holders) want a company to declare bankruptcy to get at least some sort of a payout on their investment if the company is liquidated. in this case, the company admits is has no assets whatsoever. if you liquidate it, there's still nothing. so creditors have no way of getting their money back in a bankruptcy, so why bother forcing the company to declare one. obviously, the company does still have costs (auditors, management fee, etc), and who is going to finance a company that admits it has no money to pay you back? well, for now, the stock price solved this for them, but trust me, this is temporarily.

your second question: short term stock price and fundamentals don't match. you bought shares because the price went up; if a lot of people like you do the same, the share price will skyrocket for no intrinsic reason at all. this was 30 cents, it went to 4 bucks for no reason at all. long term these moves even out though, and the price will go back to what the company is fundamentally worth.

again, i invite you to listen too:

http://public.viavid.com/index.php?id=118685

this is the CEO speaking in March 2016:

at 03m 09s he says "at this point the company has no vessels on the water and it has no cash"
at 03m 25s he says "so the assets are worth aprx 12 million below what the company owes the yard. so effectively, on a liquidation basis, the value of the company is actually negative"

he says a lot of other interesting stuff, just do the right thing, protect your own investment capital (or what's left of it), listen to it and then come back to me.

their website obviously hasn't been updated in quite a while, you can copy-paste all you want from there, but it's all old. ALL vessels have been sold, just listen to the tape. The company has no vessels on the water, three vessels on order, but owes the yard more than what the vessels are worth and does everything it can to avoid delivery as it hasn't got any cash WHATSOEVER (well, maybe they have a little bit of cash now from issuing shares into this share price spike, so they can pay the salaries of management for a little while longer).

The only good thing is near term BK seems unlikely, as nobody gains anything by doing that, as the company has NO assets so creditors get nothing either way. So Paragon will likely sit as an empty shell (so obviously you can forget about any "earnings surprises", they have no actual earnings anymore) paying the bills by issuing shares for as long as they can until they are forced to liquidate, or the Baltic Index dramatically recovers. Then they are still an EMPTY shell with a negative value, so it seems unlikley they'll get financing but who knows. We're talking years into the future here, not months.

i mean there's no denying this, you can't just erase this conference call based on something you see on a website. or you think "shorties" kindnapped the CEO and forced him to say this with a gun against his head???

earnings?

they don't actually do anything anymore. where are those earnings supposed to come from?

please, all i'm asking from you guys is 15 min.

go to: http://public.viavid.com/index.php?id=118685, leave your e-mail and it will start

it's the last Paragon conference call (from March), and you have the Paragon CEO (and 20% + shareholder) explain they have NO ships, NO activities; that the company has negative value. don't take my word for it, take his word.

roadtojourney, because i think it's fun. because lots of people are posting BS and I want to counter that. and because i hope i can save a few potential bagholders from financial disaster (like the losses potentially incurred today that could have easily been prevented). how altruistic of me.

i can counter that: why don't you prove all of this selling are those "evil" shorts?

i can show you a CEO going on record saying this company currently has no intrinsic value. i can show you a tender PRGN made for its notes (PRGNL) which was taken up by some holders and created a lot of extra shares PRGN. i can show you a press release of Maxim being asked in 2015 by the company to sell new shares for them. i can show you a press release of the company selling a convertible note to some Cypriot entity called Kyros Investments which allows them to buy shares from the company at a 33% DISCOUNT and based on a 21 TRADING DAYS AVERAGE (before dumping them on to you of course). very soon i can show you an SEC-filing which shows the nr of shares that were added those last few months, and that will help the company pay its bills for a few more months.

i can show you all that, but you are still going to think "shortie" (or whatever you call it) did it, so why bother.

those are not shorters. that's a third party dumping stock they bought at a hefty discount directly from the company.

if by selective negative crappola you mean facts. then yes, you're right.

which they haven't even started paying for

give up. the company is worth 5 cents max, the CEO knows it, the whole world knows it. the difference between 5 cents and the current share price is people like you doubling down.

the company won't even survive to see the end of the trial, is that really such a difficult concept to understand.

you do know where all that selling is coming from, right guys?

that's the company taking your money to keep the lights on for another quarter.

you think it's a disgrace a company even its own CEO admits is worthless doesn't go up in price every day?

http://www.paragonoffshore.com/investors-relations/investor-news/investor-news-details/2016/Paragon-Offshore-To-Announce-First-Quarter-2016-Results-And-Provides-Fleet-Status-Report/default.aspx

yours more recent i guess. we will see.

yeah right. no shorts available again today so don't worry about me.

pretty sure that info is wrong.

Paragon itself said in April they would announce earnings May 9th. Conference call May 10th.

good info. i did not know that.

sure i agree. but their decision to delay delivery of the ships has nothing to do with the Baltic index, but the fact the company has no cash and has no possible way of paying for the ships. you talk about positive cash flow: they only have negative cash flow. the company is dead broke. again, the CEO was very honest about this in the March conference call. you should listen to it, it spells out the bear case word by word, and it's spoken by a guy who actually owns 20%+ of this.

No, that's generally not how it's done. A company generally doesn't try to pursuade the manufacturer to delay actually delivering the ships for as long as possible, because the company has no cash whatsoever to actually pay for them.

again, 3 new vessels that Paragon still has to pay > their market value. The net balance on these vessels is DEBT DEBT DEBT, not assets.

100 million???? wow, you're completely delusional.

then show me, fundamentally, show me what's wrong about his piece. go into his arguments and show me, based on actual filings, he is wrong. you have the CEO of Paragon telling us in a Conference Call in March the company is worthless (his words, not mine). Give me some facts to help me change my mind, instead of all this stuff about who wrote it, which website published it, bla bla. Show me the fundamentals you like so much.

there are several parties that could have created this pump. with such a small float traders like yourselves do the rest, creating liquidity for the initiators to dump into. when all is said & done this stock will be back where it started, with a vastly increased O/S and everybody posting here will have moved on somewhere else, on to the next pump, posting wrong information.

i don't have a monetary interest in this thing no. i do have a genuine fascination for these kinds of pumps and the amount of misinformation spread on these kinds of bulletin boards. it's my weekend, i have nothing better to do honestly.

"hack pieces by the dozen"

the guy published 11 articles in 7 years, some of them short, some of them long..

are you attacking the messenger, because you don't want to address the message? is that it?

The author doesn't state that at all.

The author states that the price at which a convertible loan can convert is at a hefty discount, as well as to the average share price over the last 21 trading days. Do the math, the loan holder is making an absolute killing by converting now, because that average share price is only a fraction of the current share price. Those shares will hit the market. Not sure how the author determined this will happen in 3-4 trading days, but I can't find any flaw in this actual reasoning.

You guys are only looking at one side of the balance sheet. You do know a balance sheet doesn't simply contain assets, but liabilities as well?

With regards to the three ships on order: PRGN says this about them
"The balance due to Yangzijiang for the delivery of the three Kamsarmax new buildings is currently higher than the estimated market value of these vessels."

Let me rephrase, PRGN owes those Chinese more than the vessels are actually currently worth. Their net value to PRGN is negative. Come on guys, this isn't rocket science.

SA cares, because traders care. SA wants hits. When an author is willing to write an article, why not publish it. Check out twitter and see the nr of people posting about PRGN and you have your answer.

not the best example there.

Nobilis first cried foul, then had to restate earnings, had its CEO resign among others. let's not pretend this is a A-class company here. And besides just because someone sues someone else does that disqualify the person being sued? If so, ironically Paragon is currently being sued as well.

i'm a retail trader. i'm not a market maker. market maker can, to some extent, pull stuff none of us can. for a retail trader, this has been pretty much impossible short up until now.

yeah i know. i don't even have a bone in this fight, just trying to save some sheep here.

i already answered that. no shorts out there anywhere unfortunately.

well, let's be fair, the volume STRONGLY suggests the O/S is a lot bigger than most of us think it is. And let's face it, there are convertible debt liabilities out there that could have been converted over the last few months & could go a long way to bridging that gap. If anything, the impressive volume is bad news for any longs out there, not good news.

btw, contrary to what you might think, I'm not short. It's impossible to short. I just really hate to see a pump based on nrs presented as facts which they are clearly not.

I'm not questioning that this was massively shorted, I'm saying that the sources that are quoted to supposedly prove this actually prove nothing, as the numbers reported relate to something else entirely.

And if you are relying on a balance sheet from Sept 2015 (after which the company sold its entire fleet) and are not taking into account debts at all, it's my turn to say "Uhuh".

really, no offence, but let's discuss facts, not a completely outdated balance sheet from last september you don't really seem to understand in the first place.

Those of you arguing against the Seeking Alpha report: that's fine, but a bit more substance would be nice. The guy didn't read all the filings some of you argue... I assume you did? what did he miss? Please be specific, he definitely was.. All I'm hearing now is that it's a hack job, so.. prove him wrong.

Let's start with the O/S.

0.66 M shares per March 1st, 0.74 M from an exchange agreement, that leaves a float of AT LEAST 1.4 M (many of you seem to actually not have read the filings properly if you missed that). An April 6 exchange agreement could have already (if already fully exercised before the rise) added another 1-2M in shares.

also, there are convertible notes out there that can be converted at any given time at hefty discounts against the share price.

So what we're looking at is at minimum 1.4 - 3.4 M float (likely more), assuming no other shares were issued, which we have really no way of knowing until the next report. Don't get me wrong, Friday's 20M volume is still 10 times that and very impressive, but let's discuss actual O/S or at least a fair estimate, not fairy tale O/S.

Now that we've fixed this part, let's hear it. What assets do you think the SA-author missed? Facts please, not just one liners.