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If regular traders short a stock, I consider that above board market activity. Noteholders and delcath type companies live in murky waters, and the longs too, so enjoy
I suspect more sell volume from noteholders but both works for me
So far this qualifies as a bad company to invest in, so to win through adversity, etc..
I can't diagnose Turn's private messages to you, but your point is you are willing to risk a HOLD via rights, but not really buying rights with any alternate fresh money, which seems neutral
I can't diagnose Turn's private messages to you, but your point is you are willing to risk a HOLD via rights, but not really buying rights with any alternate fresh money, which seems neutral
Noteholders are like a virus, they just want to live, which means their goal is to make as much money as fast as possible here, same with momo players. $1.75 limits imo the upside as indeed rights folks are in the money if above $1.75.
Maybe $10 can hold, but it would be a huge difference from history
Stock price is extraordinarily fickle. Probably it is noteholders encouraging rights offering, so noteholders can get paid back for loans some in cash, some in warrants. If there is anyway the warrants can come into play between sep 26 and when rights are delivered, warrants are likely going to be converted and sold hard and fast, but that is a guess like all things here. It is a killer to analyze filings, I have mostly given up on understanding these finance deals
Except I don't treat as a certainty I can sell rights shares at $2.00 or better, probably better than 50 percent. How high I could sell for, I have no idea as I have first no idea about how much money from rights. This is like a game of poker where I only know one card is an ace, that is current share price
To do the math, one has to know where share count has to go as company is flat broke. I think many would agree that share count needs to reach somewhere at 30 million plus, may be 50 to 60 million shares, assuming the company gets adequate cash at all.
Rule of thumb on rights: retail shares will probably not be available until probably at least a week into October and if not all distributed at same time, last in line will face selling of many before. But the worst part is if company raises anything less than $10 million gross from rights, that would be a certain failure of delcath financing efforts. One may certainly do $2.00 or better though
To say it simple, nobody has a 30 day price target really, could they? I don't have any faith
Other words unless one is maxed out on rights, AND IF they believe post rights price would be even just $3 … not likely to hold strong
Your good post is the most likely explanation imo, certainly financing has been the perpetual anchor until proven a successful financing is in the books
The likelihood is quite strong now for $10, but fundamentally that would be like the old $500 million market cap scenario, if $50 million was raised to drive up share count. Or a more modest share count with a lousy level of cash
"Who the hell knows", related to rights, story with noteholders can't be ignored, so I am not going to assume the best. I want proof that rights deal is working well
The runup could imply concern over rights offer volume or else outstanding volume. The noteholder/concern theory seems more likely along with their future shares perhaps at .01
Because I can't predict I believe if I executed rights, probably would not be able to sell over $2.00, don't blame those that pull the trigger on rights
I'll just say performing very well. This might mean a bright future all the way, something that has eluded delcath though for over 8 years now, impossible to predict
The short answer is this company loses money at close to $25 million per year, clinical trials have been sadly lengthy, or another way to view $200 million is the likely price tag to get from failure in 2013 to success maybe 2021 or 2022, and then still could be bankruptcy during the next decade. That's the stock market, get over it
I want to know about delcath financial status most, 2ndly I want to know how many shares are given away essentially to noteholders. The $1.75 warrants stuff is okay I think, since it is like the rights
Noteholders are too hard to figure here. Rights Holders are a different group, for sure rights holders would like to sell above $1.75 if possible
I am going to say you could be right, trying to guess every significant move is beyond my pay grade
I believe it is a bad investment decision to hold at $3 even if best case scenario gobs and gobs of money at $1.75 and phase 3 is a winner.
However, upside could still be a whopping $500 m or so market cap, so any share count below 100 M...
Those holding some at $3.00 may be fairly okay if vast amounts of money are raised from rights offering, but absolutely nobody as an outsider knows how this or alternatives will play out. I don't mind any kind of money raised at $1.75 as time passes, bankruptcy I mind a lot.
Bad investing decisions are a big part of the picture, even if was proved delcath was the most corrupt company imaginable, which I don't believe
I can't say too often I think the source of many opinions is the devastating collapse in stock price when the air is cleared. I do believe there is deception which comes with desperate companies and this company has been desperate for cash for over 2 years now, that has to end to reduce risk. LWE is confident of bankruptcy soon, too difficult to forecast imo
But the fact is delcath got to the point of FDA hearing for approval before, now there is no doubt the product is better than the previous. Europe likes the product, just not a lot imo. We are 2 weeks away from knowing more I think about the current delcath, also we shall see how much the share count changes, and if insiders here were serious or playing
If that is the case, I don't think it will work for a large sum of money. Big boys need to be in on this, poor excuse for big boys to just look at current trading.
I think best case scenarios would justify $2 only as phase 3 is still a little distant on delivery
I can't PM either. I support this website through a cheaper monthly dues of $6.99 per month. It is not a perfect website but the best for delcath imo. I may be a buyer at some point, but nailing down any answers can't be done for now
lwe and I did not if I presume correctly, it still means potentially a lot more than 30 million shares so if one uses:
65 million shares and bargain $100 million market cap then $1.75 is not really cheap plus other less savory outcomes still possible
So possibly rights will raise a lot of money and is on track, except this stock move still prompts me to wonder, momo boys as source or a rights offering trap play
One percent chance rights people could see any shares at $2.00 or better, if they are other than first in line, still less than $5 million total raised on rights would not surprise me. I will resist likely empty temptation
some people today are going to be tempted for rights, I might if the price held over next 10 calendar days, interesting storyline, but then still the massive dilution would be fact so Katy bar the door when shares zoom up as selling down to $1.75 and further
If this encourages $300K of rights commitment today, that would raise over 1/2 of 1 percent of needed cash
One of the hard lessons I learned about delcath over the last couple of years over and over, short term share price is not an indication of the future. This acts like the last big runup to $6, pull the sell trigger no later than 10:00 am tomorrow imo
While the float is still very low, momo boys who have no interest in fundamentals whatsoever might run this to $5, intrinsic though headed below $1.75 as bankruptcy or 70 plus million shares outstanding down the line or both
No more, back out with sell of all 394 at $2.50, why such a good price????
Got 200 sold at $2.50, 194 remaining
Close enough to stock price with the one in 2016 before the convertible being the worst, but surprisingly instead of price shrugging it off, price continued to decline before the reverse split and convertible deal
delcath has been on the high wire ever since decline of market cap during 2016, hard to say why that year, just did