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Friday might be nice as well. Usually don't want to hold short positions into the weekend in case of news on Monday.
Dr. Hakim said the sales of the twice daily OC would generate 500 million in sales. Using a reasonable 30% net profit estimate. ELTP will generate 150 million in profit off of one drug. Which would be .27 EPS. Giving ELTP a low P/E ratio (for a biotech with 15 drugs in its pipeline) of 15 ELTP will be worth $4.00 per share. This would be a 10 bagger from here in less than 24 months. Even if the new A/S became O/S because a parter has not been found ELTP would still be worth $2.37 a share. This is off of 1 drug. There are 2 others that should hit the market in this time frame earning more revenue as well as the 12 ANDA's.
The PPS is up %250 over the last 3 months. Management has hit every goal on time, and has been direct in what they have set out to achieve. This stock is on the otc and will be very volitile, but dont loose sight of what you are invested in.
Can not ask for much more than management continuing to break through the red tape to get these game changing drugs to the market. It has been a slow steady grind over the past year with many ups and downs, but we are so close. 12 MONTHS from now we could begin to see revenues off of the first ART drug. It is so close and we are about to enter a summer and fall that will provide us with key insights into how we will market these drugs, fund future drugs, and how effective we can be against addiction and abuse. Great Cause, Great COMPANY, GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR INVESTORS. GLTA
Found this today. Is this a similar concept but for a different drug or cancer?
11:16 am NewLink Genetics presents data at AACR: Data demonstrate synergistic anti-tumor activity of ido pathway inhibitors indoximod and NLG919 in combination with other checkpoint inhibitors and cancer immunotherapies (NLNK) : Co presented preclinical data related to the immunostimulatory and anti-tumor effects of its two clinical-stage checkpoint inhibitors targeting the IDO pathway, indoximod and NLG919, in combination with anti-PD-1/PD-L antibodies. The data was presented in a poster session at the American Association for Cancer Research (:AACR) 2014 Annual Meeting. In addition, new compounds that mediate TDO (tryptophan-2,3-dioxygenase) activity were presented.
In a poster presentation entitled "Synergistic antitumor effects of combinatorial immune checkpoint inhibition with anti-PD-1/PD-L antibodies and the IDO pathway inhibitors NLG919 and indoximod in the context of active immunotherapy," NewLink researchers and collaborators at Georgia Regents University presented preclinical data demonstrating that combining IDO pathway inhibitors with agents targeting immune checkpoints provided enhanced anti-tumor effect compared to either agent alone in mouse models of established tumors.
•Demonstrated synergistic effects of combining NLG919, indoximod and anti-PD-1/PD-L1/PD-L2 antibodies to block both the IDO and PD pathways resulting in enhanced anti-tumor effects compared to blocking each pathway independently. This synergy was demonstrated in the context of established tumors treated with otherwise ineffective chemo-immunotherapy regimens.
In a second poster presentation entitled "Novel specific- and dual- tryptophan-2,3-dioxygenase (:TDO) and indoleamine-2,3-dioxygenase (:IDO) inhibitors for tumor immunotherapy," NewLink researchers presented preclinical data demonstrating novel TDO-specific, IDO-specific and TDO and IDO dual inhibitors as potential new anti-cancer compounds that could function individually or in combinations to control TDO and/or IDO activity.
•Discovered a novel class of compounds that show potent and selective TDO inhibition with 10-200-fold increased potency, as well as compounds that show potent IDO-specific inhibition and dual inhibition of TDO and IDO.
I have read that as well as anything on SA.com. Message board post can be great, but must be taken with a grain of salt. I was looking for something a little more official and reviewed. Thanks for the link Lasers. This is a great board with very well informed posters. Trying to catch up.
Any suggestions on a place I can find more reading on the tech of ONCS. Read quite a bit, but still trying to wrap my head around this without having a Bio/Chem background.
Thanks
That turned the price right around today. Should be a very interesting month. GLTA.
Thanks for taking your time to share this. Great post.
I will not have doubts until I see inferior results for an ART trail. Everything else is just noise. I think this companies ANDA's should produce enough value to hold ELTP in the 200 million market cap range. In addition I think ELTP's patents are worth far more than many of us expect. It is a difficult item to value, and lasers would know more, but I would think they could be sold straight up to a big pharmacy for far more than ELTP is trading for now. With the current valuation of ELTP, and what the sum of its parts are worth, it is a value play us much as a speculative biotech.
Clearly it can be frustrating to be down on an investment. Looking back at why you bought the company in February, and reviewing what has changed since then can be helpful. If you did your investment and valuation research again would you still buy? I think most would. Watching the PPS drop can be emotional, but do not loose sight of the end game. Since February ELTP has had nothing but good news, and come closer to achieving the lofty goals they have set. They have completed trials, transferred their fist ANDA, hired more experienced management, and obtained an international patent. The pps will catch up. It will just take time. GLTU
I AGREE!!! It will take time, patience, and a strong will. Nothing worth having will come easy.
Does the market not like the PR or were people expecting something different from this weekends conference?
All stocks have a certain level of systematic risk. Eltp is not without exception. I'll clarify my previous question. Do you think Elite will get on of their ART drugs on the market? PPS is impossible to predict. If one drug is successful you have no worries because you will make a profit. Its just a question of how much. If not than you should find another speculative investment. This one is really simple to get.
Where do you think Elite will be in 2 years? Also you have to have noticed the market is red across the board.
If that's all that's needed we might be able to do them all alone using the revenues off of the twice daily oc to fund other trials. As long as the human trials are successful I don't see a losing scenario.
To obtain a partner Elite management created series I preferred shares that have characteristics of common stock such as voting rights. This allows them to obtain a partner or funding and keep the deal out of the O/S, protecting their investment as well as ours. Increasing the A/S is mandatory to make a deal using these shares. It allows a partner or financier to know they can get their investment out of Elite if need be. It is a great move for us. I'm excited and voting yes. Takes a strong gut and DD to make the real money in the OTC!
This information was released on march 18th through a statement for a shareholder meeting. This is not new news. Just management showing that they value shareholder opinion by releasing a statement of their intentions and where they stand to date.
A no vote could put an end to getting a partner. Elite needs a large enough A/S to handle the conversion of the series i preferred shares before they can use them to obtain a partner. They also need leverage in negotiations. These shares can have a dual purpose. Without these shares your shares become less valuable. Dilution is going to be the last option. The largest share holders are management and Epic. The people making decisions would not want to lower the value of their investment unless it was necessary, or would produce a higher return in the future. Patience will be rewarded. GLTU.
He would have to be confident to begin putting global pieces into place. I think he sees the light at the end of the tunnel. FDA approval feels close.
Quote: We have additional patents filed and pending in the U.S., Canada and Europe. Elite’s technology can be applied to any of the current opioids in the market place, and our goal is to broadly use our technology to reduce the current epidemic of prescription drug abuse.
You can tell Dr. Hakim is thinking really big things are ahead of this company.
I'm not sure how the new O/S and A/S will break down so I was using 200 mil market cap as my base. New shares could be held by a partner and change everything. Hard to project.
WHY I INVESTED MORE INTO ELTP
Elite currently holds a 200 million market cap at its new support level. I think this valuation is only valuing Elite as generic company. This market cap mostly consist of the current drugs on the market plus the 12 ANDA's that should hit the market soon. I’m not sure what the profit margin on these drugs will be, but 13 million a year with a P/E of 15 is not out of the question. I think this is what the analyst was projecting as the worst case scenario when the valuation was done last year.
Elite offers such good value because it is trading at what should be its base for the generic company. In addition to the generic drug company you also get a biotech that is offsetting R&D cost with current sales. This helps to avoid further dilution as well was giving them the option to go at it alone. In biotech funding clinical trials is one of largest factors. Elite has offset cost and set into place 39.5 in alternate funding if needed. This is very prudent of the management to tackle these problems before they become big issues. With the change to the BOD and the poison pill contract Elite has safeguarded my investment from an untimely and unfair takeover. This is the strongest corporate defense offered in the U.S. A forward looking CEO is a must in an industry this competitive.
As in investment I cannot find many better. My downside risk over the next two years is having stagnate money. The generics are already approved and the deal with Epic is in place. My upside is a booming biotech with multiple triple patented products that should be on the market in less than 2 years’ time. Even a small percentage of sales will give me a more than adequate return on my investment. Investors should always do a risk reward analysis before investing in a company. These are some of the things that made investing in Elite a no brainer.
I made the change. Will you delete my previous post?
Fourth quarter of 2014 is over. Eltp has exceeded my expectations.
Elite ended the year initiating a large pivotal bioequivalence study for ELI-200 an unnamed abuse deterrent drug.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/elite-pharmaceuticals-initiates-pivotal-bioequivalence-182148823.html
Then better than expected earnings were released on February 14th. With sales of 1.7 million. A 154% increase over Q3 the previous year. This is without sales of many new FDA approved drugs that should be released later this year through Epic Pharmaceuticals.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/elite-pharmaceuticals-inc-reports-financial-144940105.html
A few days later successful pivotal bioequivalence study results were released for ELI-201. This is a twice daily abuse deterrent opioid product. This product could be on the market in 2015 and should be very competitive in the pain management sector.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/elite-pharmaceuticals-reports-results-pilot-120000788.html
Then on March 5th successful pivotal bioequivalence results were reported for ELI-200. This product was called superior to the product it was tested against, and further proved that Elite's abuse deterrent formula is safe and effective.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/elite-pharmaceuticals-reports-successful-pivotal-123000564.html
Since these results Elite has obtained a Canadian patient for their abuse deterrent technology, and hired Barbara Ellison into management with multinational experience. This could help expand the market that Elite can effectively touch with their technology.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/elite-pharmaceuticals-expands-abuse-deterrent-114634443.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/elite-pharmaceuticals-appoints-barbara-ellison-161505343.html
Lastly Elite has transferred Isradipine to Epic for sales beginning on April 21st. This is the first of many drugs Elite should be able to get to market this year. Dr, Hakim stated on March 24th
Quote:
"While Elite's primary strategic focus is the development and approval of our abuse deterrent products, Elite expects to continue to grow its generic product line revenue over time. We expect to announce additional supplemental filings later this year."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/elite-pharmaceuticals-announces-supplemental-application-120000692.html
Elite has also created 39.5 million in series I preferred shares that have voting rights and act like common stock. Voting rights allow for these shares to be held without diluting the O/S while still giving a partner say in the decision making. They have increased their A/S (pending shareholder approval) to compensate a conversion of these shares to common stock. This would raise funds needed to continue further trials on the 15 ADT drug pipeline if a partner could not be found. These shares allow Elite the opportunity to obtain a partner in the future. Which Dr. Hakim as stated he is in the process of doing.
The market has reacted very favorably to these developments. The stock pps is up 342% on the quarter. This should allow Elite to sign a deal giving up less for the 39.5 million in preferred shares.
Over the next quarter we should see more patents obtained, generics released, 4th quarter earnings, another trial start and potentially finish, and further developments on a partner and fast track status.
I'm very excited for what the 1st quarter has to offer.
The price action is so predictable. Drive it down 4-6% especially on Monday than cover later in the week and end about even. I will be really excited when we get on a major exchange.
Won't make much of a difference long term but that's a very exact prediction. Hope your very rich if you can predict stock movement and news precisely.
I added more at .735 yesterday. This stock has held above .7 with no news and the biotech sell off. I think this is a great time to jump in.
Got to love a second chance at shares in the .70s. This might be the last time. Oncs has been quite for awhile, and I wouldnt expect that to last much longer.
I would think if they are going to take the hit of a R/S they would get the price above $10. I know a lot of institutions have a $5 minimum, but why not give yourself some wiggle room and appeal to all?
Biotechs are having no fun this week. Hopefully this is the end of the dip.
If it does none of the longs will flinch. Its not about next week, or next month. Read the past two months of PR's, and have some vision. When you can see beyond the immediate gratification you can make some real money.
So you are assuming that none of the new FDA approved generic drugs will be sold, and none of the 15 ART drugs will hit the market?
You would factor in the value of patents and the potential earning ability of the asset they are related to. It's hard to place a value on an asset that is not tangible, but that is where this valuation comes from. It is also why the market has not yet caught up. These patents are the true value of Elite. Looking at what Google bought and sold Motorola for and the patents they got out of the deal shows how valuable proprietary tech is. Even the biggest players in any industry pay a premium for patents that can keep competition at bay. BTW your long factual post is awesome. Thanks for writing that.
How they arrived at the valuation is pretty standard in any financial assessment. The regulation of that industry is very tight.
No the poison pill contract and structure of the bod won't allow for a take over. More than likely the valuation that was done was for a starting point for negotiations.
I wonder what her compensation package looks like? I think that would say a lot about her intentions.
You insights have been really good. Thanks for your time.
I'm hoping that Nasrat is setting up his management and the new structure of the BOD to remain their own entity. I think having a partner to help with funding for a cut of profit will benefit the shareholders much more than a merger or buyout.
Who could take this job if it didn't have a great outlook.