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So, what do we have left? Samsung, TSMC, Intel and Globalfoundries, all competing for the foundry business. I see chip prices falling. TSMC and Globalfoundries are in the worst position since they depend highly on mobile which Intel and Samsung both are trying to dominate at all cost. Samsung has memory andbits own chips to cover its expenses and Intel has PC and server. That's going to be a rough fight. Samsung, Glofo and TSMC have all to lose, Intel has only share to gain in the foundry business - and in addition they are leading technogically. We'll see how that ends. I placed my bet ...
Just my personal, non represantative, observation this weekend in an electronic store: Almost noone was having a closer look at tablets but many people were checking notebooks. That definitely was different some months ago, at least in that shop. But the weakness seems to be in emerging markets anyway.
By the way: Is there any study about why emerging markets don't seem to buy PCs anymore? I mean aside those non supported claims as "larger phones replacing them"? I guess these people also need to do some work on a computer and PCs were growing there nicely some years ago.
@FPG
You still didn't answer that one: Why do you think Intel isn't cost competitive in mobile?
Was Lenovos new yoga tablet line mentioned already?
This is a line of new tablets of various sizes, starting from 8" to 10" up to 13". The 8" and 10" model will be available with Android and Windows, starting at 230€ for the 8" Android model. The Windows 8" model costs just 20€ more. They all feature an Intel CPU. LTE is optional for another 50€.
The largest model, 13", features an integrated pico beamer. Battery lifetime is great with up to 18h for the 10" model. All use Intel CPUs (Bay Trail) which seems to be doing great in terms of battery life.
Intel x86 gives those manufacturers lots of options and allows them to build a line of devices with many selective features. Building one device and offering it with Android or Windows is a big advantage for x86 and if the classic PC manufacturers, like Lenovo, Asus, Acer, Dell etc., capture a big chunk of the tablet market, which kind of looks like they currently are, Intel is in the best position to be selected as supplier.
Let's see how the smartphone market changes. This is starting to be yet another commodity market and Lenovo is gaining share each year. If Intel provides better value, they will definitely select them as their supplier also for phones, which makes Intel's entry there easier. I doubt Lenovo is going to select Samsung as its supplier since there is direct competition.
Cherry Trail ramps in march 2015.
That's late but should still be competitive with the Android high end in terms of performance. If Intel really gets the price of it down significantly (no BOM issue, 14nm) they can reduce their mobile losses signficantly and gain share.
@FPG
What is Intel's lead then when TSMC will have 16nm Finfet devices in the market by mid/end of next year which is actually a 20 nm node? How long does Intel have its 22nm products in the market? Sure, TSMC 16nm is denser as Intel's 22nm process was, but you can't compare it to Intel's 14nm node, which is a full shrink and second generation finfet process. Don't you call that a lead? I'd call it a multi year lead actually.
TSMC will call its next shrink 10 nm I guess, which is actually their 14nm node. When Intel comes out with its full node shrink calling it 10nm, which it really is, TSMC will claim that it is on par with Intel.
Not true. Rendering internet pages stresses the CPU a lot. It's one of those "enough CPU speed" mythbusters.
@simplytom
Couldn't that just be related to the large SRAM cache in the A7? Would explain it very well. That cache may help nicely for mobile micro benchmarks but not for complex applications. Anyway, there is not the one and only benchmark and Geekbench definitely isn't.
In the end, for the customer the speed of web browsing and software robustness as well as regular updates will matter most. Stuff Intel can provide better value for than ARM cheapos. Let's see what people will choose.
So much about benchmarking. One can prove whatever he wants by selecting the corresponding benchmarks. In the end, what matters is real life performance. Something Intel is doing fine with, especially at high work loads.
Intel claims twice the GPU performance of Bay Trail for Cherry Trail. Guess that should be on par with the fastest ARM SoC GPUs.
Samsung uses Bay Trail for its new Chromebook. It seems that Intel is not willing to give Chrome OS to the ARM crowd and they are obviously willing to price agressively to achieve this. I think this is very important. If Chrome OS really manages to gain significant desktop and laptop share, Intel needs to dominate this ecosystem in order to make ARM the incompatible choice here. The more popular Chrome OS becomes, the more people will be willing to pay a premium for Intel's Core I processors, which maintains Intel's high margins.
By the way: Since Chrome OS is about to integrate Android Apps, Intel's mobile efforts for Android once more pay off. Also the lowest end Chrome devices couldn't economically be equipped by Intel without Bay Trail. This is how Intel keeps ARM out of its major business - the PC.