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LTM-Going through it now. Now I am in my comfort zone. LOL
Post,
That is awesome. I guess what I am trying to wrap my head around is the way the street will value PPS without actual numbers. The way I have proceeded in this sector is from a revenue standpoint as pure settlements could take a long time to get.
LTM, Thanks
Not sure haven't seen anything from him. I just don't like being on main boards as its sounds like pumping. LOL
You may have seen this. Sure sounds a lot like Bascom just a bit different in patent.
http://secfilings.com/News.aspx?title=blue_calypso_(bcyp):_enforcing_its_social_media_patent_portfolio&naid=342
PI Great board. Over the last 6 weeks I have really dug in to this IP sector. I am suited perfectly for this sector. They trade almost by the book via charts, high risk but high reward. I always mitigate risk with TA. No guarantees but it helps me sleep at night. Since DSS just announced the 2nd settlement in the Bascom case (Prob NOVL/BVSN) since I do not think they have the resources for a fight and just want the noise to go away. How can I ascertain the value of these settlements other than the 4% and 5% residuals. The nice thing is that is ongoing revenue stream but I am not quite sure how the street looks at this for valuation. I am also following VRNG, MGT, VHC, and MARA. I think I have pegged the model (VHC) and then go from there. Any thoughts will be great.
LTM-Question
I am in another IP play. Just got an alert that a second company just settled. Since the IP sector is fairly new for me can you advise as to how the settlement amounts can be located. As you know they basically can't identify anything initially. Since two settlements have been reached an RR is 4% and 5% what would you suggest I use for potential revenue numbers. OR is this something that will come out in SEC filings? Thanks
2nd settlement reached today.
MCLEAN, Va., May 14, 2013 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Lexington Technology Group (LTG),an intellectual property management firm that has entered into a definitiveagreement to merge with Document Security Systems, Inc. (NYSE MKT: DSS),announced today that its wholly owned subsidiary, Bascom Research, reached a settlement with a second defendant in its ongoing litigation in the Northern
District of California.
Terms of the patent license are confidential as stipulated in the agreement, but include an effective royalty rate of approximately 5% for use of the four Bascom patents currently in litigation.
Bascom Research is a software development company focused on building solutions for the management of complex and distributed data in healthcare and other fields. The company owns patents that are instrumental to social networking and aspects of enterprise networking. In 2012, Bascom Research brought claims for
patent infringement against five defendants, including Facebook, Inc. and LinkedIn Corp. Previously, on April 23rd, Bascom Research entered into a settlement agreement with a defendant in the case for an effective royalty rate of approximately 4%. This case is still pending against the other defendants (including Facebook, Inc. and LinkedIn Corp.) in the Northern District of
California and a Markman hearing for the case is scheduled to be heard on October 2nd, 2013.
A team of senior licensing experts from IPNav, a leading patent licensing and monetization firm with more than $600 million generated in legal settlements and licensing revenues, is leading the licensing efforts and strategy on the current
case.
We held the 200DMA so harder for them to go lower.
Only 7% of the O/S float. VRNG has over 30% I think. Volume takes care of that. However, I like the chances of short squeeze if it presents itself. This would be the ideal candidate based on movement with light volume.
Post,
Thanks for the info. I saw the Bascom filed amendments but was just looking for sanitized version as I have nothing legal in my background. Thanks
Any Legal guys on board?
Here is the latest filing (Although DSS has since submitted new amendments). Obviously FB and others want dismissal of several things. I have absolutely no idea what it means except it looks like Bascom conceded on one thing but reinforced others. (Let everyone do their own DD and surmise). Once again, just trying to make sure I have all the info. It does give you insight into how these fights take place though. Enjoy
http://docs.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/california/candce/3:2012cv06293/261664/71/
Having seen this scenario a few times I am sure the company has war gamed this out down to the last minute. Obviously no crystal ball here but Thursday is setting up to be an interesting trading day. It is sandwiched between earnings (Wednesday) and Merger Price Requirement ($3)(Friday).
UBS has locked that 500 shares at a time at $2.79 all day and I am waiting to see if they will raise that. LOL-someone just spent their last $75.00. That $3 PPS will spark some play I think.
Agreed, However there are 5 days left and this is close enough to wait until last second. UBS sold some during last quarter 2012 and looks to be buying some back. Plus there can be individual investors (money types) waiting to go through their brokers also. It only takes one of the biggies like NITE to come to the party and then it is game on. I truly believe it is right where it should be, Should be an interesting week either way. Wednesday's early volume will probably dictate the earnings call.
I am waiting to see when we get some MMs in here to finally get the stock moving. The only company playing right now is UBS and they have been buying. Almost all orders coming through NSDQ trading desk which would still mean mostly retail play to me. Could be very good week if earnings in DSS (specifically revenue) has increased and merger positives. The next thing will be to see what the settlement amount was. Chart rends appear bullish but still pretty thinly traded.
PI, Great Call. That takes all the merger uncertainty out of this. I hope I am right when I said they want to have it ready for earnings call. LOL
I am going to take a first look over there tomorrow. Who is the heavy hitter on MARA if you don't mind me asking?
LTM,
Are you getting your MMs off LVL II? Thats the only place I currently know of. Trying to see if their is another source I can cross check with.
Tste,
Here is a site that recognizes candle patterns when charting. It is very basic and they will not get you daily price moves or anything. However, they do have a pretty good buy/sell recommendation for beginning. Just look when they recommended to buy/sell here on DSS.
http://americanbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=DSS
Years ago I used stockschart.com to learn the basics. Now I use them to basically tailor my criteria.
I like blackjack too but this is actually more profitable once you learn the rules. Remember the Market Makers are the dealers, and the market is the house. You are competing against both. I decided to be more of a swing trader who builds long positions in good companies. Between computers and experts I cannot pick the daily winners and losers like day traders and people who have done this for ever. I have only been investing for about 16 years and just have found a comfortable niche. Have fun, don't stress and NEVER invest in a stock more than you can afford to lose. .
I don't like answering for other people's post but what I think he is saying is that the S4 (I think the fifth) was released and that means the SEC has still not approved merger based on some required change. Until there are no more S4's issued then the merger will not be completed. The majority of street investors will never jump into something that major until there is absolute certainty in the transaction. No one knows if this is just one thing from an SEC list or are there other more difficult things that have to be addressed. Just another piece of info for you to use when deciding to invest or not.
tste,
Remember, always use bulletin boards as just one source of information. I like to read opinions based on facts and not the "noise" that is prevalent most of the time. Also you want info that is both good and bad. Nothing is always rosey and if it is, run from the stock IMO. I used to like to gamble also and about 15 years ago I found penny stocks, lets just say I learned careful DD will always improve your odds vice just following the chatter. I normally follow one or two posters on a specific stock if I think they have a handle on the company to help me understand quicker what I am dealing with. I am a retired military guy and the stock market is like a battle. The exception is, we (investor) ALWAYS have the odds stacked a against us. You need to add more powder (information) to your weapons. Learn how to read a basic chart, how to understand basic aspects of an SEC filing and if not sure just ask. I always do regardless of how long I have been doing this.
Those numbers would account for 35% ownership of DSS.
Per March S4 look at the beneficial ownership numbers if you are concerned: The unidentified company is IPNAV in Texas. This is post merger:
Name and Address of Beneficial Owner Amount of Beneficial Ownership Percent of Class Amount of Beneficial Ownership Percent of Class
5% Stockholders (Preferred)
Hudson Bay Master Fund, Ltd.
777 Third Avenue
New York, NY 10017 — — 4,171,052 100 %
Barry Honig
4400 Biscayne Boulevard
Suite 850
Miami, FL 33137 80,645 (16) — 3,802,290(11) 7.59 %
5% Stockholders (Common)
Hudson Bay Master Fund, Ltd.
777 Third Avenue
New York, NY 10017 725,805 (3) 3.3 % 5,081,830 (9) 9.99 %
1960480 BT, LLC
2515 McKinney Ave
Suite 1000
Dallas, TX75201 — — 4,495,405(10) 8.99 %
One my email is chasshear@yahoo.com. Please feel free to tag me in an email as I have a few questions regarding IP sector and would rather not clog up the board and respect its members.
PM thanks for that insight. No position yet as I jumped into DSS in the last month and have been basically using this stock as an entry into the IP sector. I just like what MARA has done to date and like I stated earlier, they seem to be very aggressive in their litigation strategy. I have an idea where I think I might enter but will hold until then. You are absolutely correct on TA. Sure can't use my 600 MA yet. LOL
LTM, I kind of fell into this sector by accident. I actually like the charts of the main 3 IP plays. I feel that rather than get caught up in all the "rumors/inuendoes, it is just easier to try and work the charts. I use many indicators-Bolli is just one of about ten things we charters look at. In my heart these things have been by the book. The only thing that makes these different to me is the effect "rumors" of litigation have. Just seems to knock the model on that one thing at times. Thanks for the input as I am following you around a bit. LOL
PI as you stated numerous times. The street is treating this now as an IP play and I am now (slowly) beginning to understand a little more how to trade this thing. I just think everything is frozen until that merger. Right now this thing is EXACTLY where it should be and the pivot point is around $2.76. I wouldn't be surprised to see high volume Tues-Weds. If you noticed, this stock trades in extremes on high volume days. When its going up it goes up fast and when it goes down it goes down hard.
I think I have personally read every SEC document and new article ever written on this company. I am extremely interested in the earnings call Wednesday and would recommend anyone with serious interest take 45 minutes (can listen anytime), and see what is going on. They will have to discuss SEC filings and cannot sugar coat these. The real fun should be during Q&A. Heck they may pre-empt because they know everyone is going to be asking about merger. I will always say it isn't over until its over but I haven't seen one thing that would tell me merger is not going to happen. I am sure the tone of the executives on that call will dictate. Everything in these S4s has been adjustments to the proxy. If that is all there is then this thing is doing just fine. I am willing to bet that if they can in any way announce the merger on Wednesday they will want to. All I can continue to say is that this stock has traded by the book from a TA stand point. If you see volume and a break above $3, know the merger is imminent. I have bought in on three dips and held. My goal will be to build a position by taking profit and accumulating a free share load. If that makes sense. I am looking forward to this week and I just think the hand has to show itself in some way. Just for the record, I am a private investor that has a decent position but nothing at this point that will cause this stock to go in any direction. LOL Since this is my first IP play I am hoping not to get the smackdown.
BMU, I am not currently staked in MARA yet as I have a ton more DD to do. However it is interesting that the IP companies that seem to ascend in value get there after getting onto one of the main exchanges. Out of respect to the MARA board I won't go into detail of my other IP play but it sure looks a lot like this thing sans major index. It would just seem that they need a merger partner that is equal in scope or has some cash to bring to the table and you probably have a big winner. I will keep checking back and they are on my tracker. These guys have way more suits it looks like and patents compared to some others I track. Best of luck-
LTM, I also am a charter but am new in this IP sector. Do you think these things follow typical chart patterns or is their a catalyst that goes against convention? I own a different IP stock and it seems very much to follow all conventions of stock charting. It just seems simple in the sense of Mid-line bolli, 20 or 50 DAY , MACD, Candle Patterns. I use Candle Volume which has pretty much been spot on in movements. Any input greatly appreciated.I don't think I have seen one time that these things go outside Bolli that it doesn't come running back down. LOL Just seems to simple to me.
PI Putting it into basic terms these charts show you different information.
The formula used basically is telling you that buys (Longs) vs Shorts (sells). They employ huge algorithms to come up with what they assume are longs and shorts.
Chart One: Overview of all the information (charts/graphs) that follow.
Chart Two: Basically graph of Longs vs Shorts. (Percentage)
Chart Three: Daily price movement. (Close Each Day)
Chart 4: Graph Version of Chart Two but strictly based on volume.
Generally Green is better.
Without boring anyone to death. This stock typically has been trading on its 20 day moving average. It was WAY over bought last week on run up. So know that there was accumulation going on between $3.30-$3.50. It right now rests back on that line. What is interesting from a technical stand point is how fast it will move on buying pressure. That is a great sign. Alas, the inverse is true also. I guarantee you the volume will let you know before the news is released that something is pending. The street ALWAYS knows before we do. I really do not think there is any major action going on yet. My target for the big moves will be when this hits 1M in volume. At that point you will be bringing in every trader type known. Thats when the movement will be fun to watch. On a side note regarding the Merger and $3 strike price that must be there. I have only had two stocks in over 15 years that weren't at the required level when they merged. (This is #3) However, both times the companies had institutional buyers waiting to buy and force the price up. If this is under $3 watch if that occurs. I know they have the RS option but nothing I have read would lead me to believe that is a necessary option due to current low float.
This stock has done exactly what it should do from a technical stand point. Remember all those stocks that were sold on the recent run up had to be bought back at a lower price. Thats the way market makers work. They do not trade on news or pending mergers etc... Remember, for every share they sell at a higher price they will buy back at a lower price. They make their money in the spread. This is the type of stock you cannot get caught up in green/red every day. (If you are long) As has been said here many times there are two important events coming up (although I think the earnings is important also):
1, Merger 2. Litigation. I have only been in the stock a month because it came up on my screener, based on criteria I set. However, I decided to just stay long and see how this plays out. Remember, I believe the price of the merger is already factored in to the price around $3.10. Can't really say until all numbers are released from both companies. (Markets will do that in about .5 seconds). The increase will be based on stock issued to Lexington execs, Hudson Bay etc.. and what the settlement amount is. I am very new to analyzing this IP sector. I will say it is like the wild west for sure. I believe you can make money short term and long term. Never invest based on news, hype or lack of fundamentals. Now I have absolutely no idea how this will all play out and I enjoy this board since it is devoid of P&Ders. Once again, I believe this stock is exactly where it is supposed to be from a technical stand point today.
I actually just went back and listened to last quarters webcast. A couple of interesting notes. After you get through all the feel good comments to brokers I thought the greatest insight came from individual investors. I will just add the following responses:
DSS wanted to be able to announce merger completion at next webcast and that there was nothing the SEC was stating that would indicate any hiccups. Now this may be delayed a bit as we know but with the target being the 18th there should be considerable comments/questions on that front.
Jeff stated that ALL litigants in the pending Bascom case have been in communication regarding the case. Now this doesn't mean anything really and I am sure a lot is initial due diligence. However, that is significant since one company has already settled.
What I like about the revenue model in their security product is that DSS has actually developed the product to customer specifications. The Beta testing will allow them to realize revenue in a shorter time frame.
I also didn't realize that there are several high dollar investors who got in DSS when it was $6-$8/share. Thats when it was losing money.
The legal hit on bottom line will be significantly less than 4th qtr.
The original valuation used from Lexington was $5.5 Million based on shares utilized for funding. I am particularly interested if that number will change at all.
As we know "projections" are just that. I am looking for variances. Like Noler said this is initially going to be an IP play and then settle in to probably something much different. I for one can't wait till Wednesday.
Not me-I am long and like I said the IP sector is a new one for me. Thats it.
AMEX Requirements:
http://www.venturelawcorp.com/listing_requirements_amex.html
Post-Just trying to think out loud as to why (if) the principals would want to do it for any other reason than the $3 mkt requirement. I know all the reasons normally for an RS (Poor performance, Share Price etc..) I am just curious as to DSS whether there are any other potential reasons. This was my first IP play and I only got in because of underlying business to support. However, as long as the merger goes through this seems like a pretty good long with very good upside potential. Once again, just war gaming out loud in a new industry. Thanks.
I would like to know if anyone has an opinion on RS. Is there an innate advantage for a merged company like DSS to come in under $3 to force a RS? I suppose there are pros and cons but since there really is not gong to be a huge float after the merger I am not sure why this would be an issue. With this stock, volume is always critical. I believe the story is now located in volume and charts. I do not believe you can trade this thing prior merger on anything else. (JMO) I do understand the fear of shorts if they did conduct a RS and the need to accumulate at these levels. Once again this is a $2.75-$3.10 stock IMO. (Right Now) Any thought?
Reply is nothing major. At least I know that what they are being asked to amend by the SEC is not a huge material issue:
"We consent to the use in this Amendment No. 5 to Registration Statement (No. 333-185134) on Form S-4 of Document Security Systems, Inc. of our report dated March 6, 2013, relating to our audits of the consolidated financial statements of Document Security Systems, Inc. as of and for the years ended December 31, 2012 and 2011, appearing in the Prospectus, which is part of this Registration Statement.
We also consent to the reference to our firm under the captions "Experts".
"We consent to the inclusion in this Registration Statement of Document Security Systems, Inc. on amendment No. 5 to Form S-4 [FILE NO. 333-185134] of our report dated March 29, 2013, with respect to our audit of the consolidated financial statements of Lexington Technology Group, Inc. and Subsidiary as of December 31, 2012 and June 30, 2012 and for the periods from May 10, 2012 (inception) through June 30, 2012, six months ended December 31, 2012 and period of May 10, 2012 (inception) through December 31, 2012, which report appears in the Prospectus, which is part of this Registration Statement. We also consent to the reference to our Firm under the heading “Experts” in such Prospectus."