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CPSH-
Yes, thanks for the alert yesterday. I was going to bid some in the AH but it got away from me. Turns out it was still a good opportunity.
HTZ - Any opinions on this one? Upside? With less flights, more demand for rental cars?
researcher (UNM) - What do you mean expected to some extent? Isn't that dated back in 2018? What would be different now...the environment in which to do it?
UNM - Looks like an overreaction to me. I get that they missed their numbers and some analysts were expecting higher. The Moody's downgrade probably hurts too. I'm bidding more in the AH. Like SSK says, I have no idea why this one is always the red headed stepchild.
SCIA - Nothing special in the report but I think people may be waking up to the fact that it took a bigger hit than it should have, even with COVID-19. They have very little debt and even though their profits/net income are down, they are still doing well and should be good for the future. Value stock.
CUBI - This is exactly my problem as well. There are a lot of other depressed stocks in the same industry that pay dividends and will probably go up just as much in terms of the recovery.
HYDI - Keeps moving - lots of traction (doesn't take much). Boy am I glad that I pulled that 1.50 sell order last week.
This Mr. Cooper Group presentation should shed some light on what we are likely to see from NRZ next week:
http://investors.mrcoopergroup.com/Cache/IRCache/785da0f9-c402-75c6-4f7b-155387faecb4.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=785da0f9-c402-75c6-4f7b-155387faecb4&iid=4401869
Not as bad as originally thought.
Obrien - I was tempted also...but still holding. Have some NLY and REML also in the mREIT space.
NRZ (Obrien) - Wish I had some trading shares. I just have a core position. I've sold several of my other stocks - was about 5-10% margin and i'm trying to get back to just cash positions.
You've been on fire lately with all of your calls. A lot of things are going up. Wish I had some of that PVAC. I even sold my FTSI too early.
That's why I think shorting is kinda risky right now. I mean why fight the Fed/market trend. There is a chance this thing goes down again, but it seems like all the huge drops are done. Any good news and I believe there's even more fuel here. Treatments/vaccines/back to some kind of normalcy. Sure there is a lot of bad news coming, but it seems like the market has already digested it. Thoughts?
If a vaccine is ready by September, that will do a lot to quell the fears of this.
CNXM - where did you pick that one up at? I saw you had a fill this morning, but not sure what your cost basis was? I've been avoiding this one and CADE. Trying to stick to some others I feel a little bit better about. But they probably all come back at some point.
Obrien (IVZ) - Looks like another good add, long-term. I just have my shares at 7.20. Since the big drop i'm holding CTHR, CVU, CVV, EBIX, FHN, IVZ, LNC, NLY, NRZ, PPL, RML, UNM and several others. I freed up some cash over the last couple days just in case the market drops again. Not sure what's going to happen. Your thoughts?
I feel like there’s too many people expecting the market to drop again. Without stimulus, yes...definitely
But is there a lot more bad news that hasn’t already been priced in? What is it?
Wade - I used to compare past stock market cycles to try and apply that to the future. However, it's a lot more complicated than just saying- "Well, in 1929 it did this, so that's probably what it will do here also". It was a different time and they didn't have the Fed injecting all this $ into the thing. Based on what I saw after 2008/09, the market just kept going up and up and I stayed short. It was a good lesson. The market could drop - who knows? Sure seems like we are headed for the route of inflation. Only time will tell.
TMMFF (TMAC Resources) - I started adding this last week. It has been one of the more beaten down names. It's doing pretty well today. Been combing through all of the different gold stocks out there.
MGI (Mermelstein) - do you still like it here? I'm on the fence with this one. I know their online presence has been increasing, but not sure how much of a revenue hit they are going to take.
HYDI- Cool! This is one of my largest holdings. Was actually tempted to sell some this week but held off. Got all my shares in the low .40s.
Bought IVZ at 7.20 in the AH. Next bid at 6.70.
Obrien (IVZ) - I have my first buy at 6.8X, but i'm tempted here to get a small block of starter shares. When I look at the chart, it just seems like it has more downside. Hard to say in this environment.
Added ARNGF, SKREF, TMMFF and GORO today for additional gold exposure. Have some lower bids to put in if they head lower. Gotta like gold over the next couple years with all this stimulus.
yeah Wade- makes sense to sell a gold stock with gold surging and probably going higher. Just because it’s up 100% doesn’t make it overvalued.
Bobwins- been doing a lot of research on gold miners this week. What are your favorite juniors? I was very active in this space a few years ago but right now just holding physical. Waiting for silver to catch up also.
HAUP - This company definitely has to be worth more than zero. I have some shares and bidding for more. I'm sure there are a few skeletons in the closet.
CADE (Obrien) - This one just isn't acting right. There are other opportunities out there and I gotta agree with the guys...too much exposure to areas that can really hurt them. Probably not of additional downside at this point, but who knows.
Added FHN this morning. Haven't been trading any of my NRZ shares lately. Added a few days ago in the 4s. My 4.51 bid never got filled. Too bad, I think it was only a few cents above that. REITs are a little weaker today after the big run yesterday. HYDI has been my biggest gainer for the day.
Bobwins (GORO) - is this your favorite gold stock? I'm actually looking to add one to my portfolio right now. Hold physical gold also. Thanks!
I’m wondering the exact same thing. Wade just hates tech. Lol.
CVU just keeps trucking. I sold a bit on the way up as I was a tad overweight.
OBrien- any predictions for market behavior over the short/long term? Your calls have been pretty good lately.
Wade,
I think a lot of companies are doing that just for CYA while this thing is going on. They want full disclosure in the event they don't meet expectations.
I'm just telling you that technology is making a HUGE push right now as a result of this. Stimulus checks are out there. Webcams are completely sold out. Can't find them anywhere. They are more than double MSRP on Ebay. I'm seeing AMD Processors selling out at local computers places. These are facts. If you want to short - i'm just not sure doing it in the technology sector is the right place to be.
Wade,
I think this is a dangerous sector to short right now. You have better earnings coming in. Just for anecdotal evidence- I was putting together new computer parts the other day and they are selling out of this stuff like crazy (especially AMD - their new Ryzen processors are great). Think about it - more people working from home. Computers, webcams, technology...all things that people need right now. Not the right sector to be short in.
SEAC - Tough to say whether this becomes a real issue or not. Probably a lot of CYA too. I know a lot of people might pump the brakes in terms of existing negotiations, etc.. Many companies will have an adverse reaction to COVID-19. It's definitely a wait and see for me.
SOXS - Aren't there better ways to short? Chart kinda says it all...
michael,
Do any of us really know what the consequences will be? Japan has been carrying a huge debt/gdp ratio for awhile now:
Name
National Debt to GDP Ratio
Population
Japan 237.54% 126,476,461
Venezuela 214.45% 28,435,940
Sudan 177.87%
Greece 174.15% 10,423,054
Lebanon 157.81% 6,825,445
Italy 133.43% 60,461,826
Eritrea 127.34% 3,546,421
Cape Verde 125.29% 555,987
Mozambique 124.46% 31,255,435
Portugal 119.46% 10,196,709
Barbados 117.27% 287,375
Singapore 109.37% 5,850,342
United States 106.70% 331,002,651
Wade-
I get what you're saying and the market should be going down. However, I learned a HUGE lesson in 2008/2009. Don't fight the Fed. The government HAS to create an environment where the market goes up. Everything is dependent on it. Eventually, you will see a much bigger event...but then your money won't matter much anyways. I missed out big by thinking the market would go even lower when it went under 7000. Cost me a lot.
NRZ - I should have scooped some up yesterday in the AH once I saw the NLY press release. It was available in the high 3s for a bit there. Would have been an easy 20-25%. Shoulda woulda coulda!
What are you guys liking right now for value plays? I'm still hesitant to buy anything until I see the next couple of weeks. The market has rallied quite a bit, but it's hard to predict the impact of this stimulus and any good Coronavirus related news.
NLY - Press Release after hours is really driving this higher. I own some. Also driving REML higher because of the exposure to NLY. I told my NRZ earlier, but may look to add some back. I am less bullish on NRZ because of the Moody's downgrade but feel it has been pretty beaten down. I must admit I got a little scared a few days ago and lightened my positions a little early on the upswing...it's just hard to judge the impacts in this sector at this time.
SEAC-
Put a stink bid out there but didn't get any. Much of the revenue they expected to see this quarter should translate into next quarter when they get some of these deals done. Should see continued growth into the next year or two. Should have taken some off the table today, but this is a long-term hold for me.