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Let it settle into a rhythm for a while, then it will slowly proceed upward. It might proceed upward more quickly than what I think, but I see some sideways action before the upward.
Today we begin the slow, steady climb. I expect a little sideways action, and then the beginning of a slow climb up to the lower 20's. I see this thing resting in the .19-.23 range until the pre-feasibility study comes out. Once the study comes out in July, I see this thing popping to the .35-.4 range and remaining there until the end of the year when we receive more progress updates. Of course, any good news from management will raise my guesses quite a bit. Great potential here: the offering has closed; the debt agreement has been amended; now Prospect can get to work developing the mine. I like this one now. What some often fail to understand is Karlsson Group does not want PGRX to fail. Karlsson will do whatever it takes to make sure PGRX starts producing potash, because when they produce potash, no one more than Karlsson benefits as they get a small percentage of all the profits. The fear factor has largely been removed from this stock now. Now it is just a matter of time and patience. Short term, give this at least 2-3 weeks. Medium term, give it until beginning of August. Long term, give it until mid-2014.
If you're short, you better cover!
Get ready to fly folks!!!!!
Prospect Global Announces Closing of $5 Million Equity Offering
Now - BusinessWire via Dow Jones News
Financing Will Support Continued Development of Holbrook Basin Project DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 26, 2013-- Prospect Global Resources Inc. (NASDAQ:PGRX) announced today that it has closed its previously announced underwritten public offering of 41,666,700 units at $0.12 per unit. The gross proceeds to the Company from the offering were $5 million. Each unit consists of one share of common stock, one Series A Warrant to purchase one share of common stock, and one Series B Warrant to purchase one share of common stock and one additional Series A Warrant. The underwriters have exercised their option to purchase up to an additional 1,173,190 warrant units consisting of one Series A Warrant and one Series B Warrant at an exercise price of $0.0001 per unit, less underwriting commissions, solely to cover overallotments.
When they let this run, this is going to run like crazy!
Now we run.
Wow...over 3 million traded in 10 minutes! This thing is going to explode!
Read today's announcement!
I would sure hate to be short this stock right now. Today's announcement is HUGE! Nothing but up and forward from here. And wait until July with the pre-feasibility study released!
Prospect Global Completes Senior Debt Amendment
1 hours 46 minutes ago - DJNF
Pre-Feasibility Study on track for July Delivery
DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 26, 2013--
Prospect Global Resources Inc. (NASDAQ: PGRX) announced today the amendment of its senior secured debt with the Karlsson Group.
Key highlights include:
-- Removal of all interim financing milestones
-- Removal of interim principal payment of $30 million due January 2015;
full debt maturity on July 2015
-- Required interim development milestones to ensure the continued
development of Prospect Global's Holbrook Basin potash project
-- Issuance of five year warrants to purchase 3 million shares of common
stock at $0.12 per share
"This amendment will provide us with more flexibility in capital raising by eliminating the interim financing milestones," said Damon Barber, PGRX CEO. As previously announced, Prospect Global expects to release the results of its Pre-Feasibility Study in July 2013.
The deal is closed and finished. No more dilution. It is nowhere but up from here, and the feasibility study due out sometime in July will send this thing even father through the roof. Get in while you can.
We won't see what around today?
Another reason this will run is most are heavily invested at much higher prices.
No one ought to be sorry they sold yesterday if they took profits. If you want to make a ton of money, buy at the beginning of the day today...you won't regret it!
I'll try to answer my own question: today I guess we hit .25. At the release of the prefeasibility study I guess we hit .5. This thing is going places now! I am also guessing there will be some fairly major investors who come running through the doors very soon here. This thing just turned into a very good short term and long term investment! Be sure to take profits on the way up, but be sure also to hold a bunch...in one month this will likely be over $1.
Anyone have any idea how many days this might run, and how high it might go?
FWIW, my suggestion for those trying to increase their holdings, or initiate a position, is to put in staggered buy orders. When Iroquois shorts, they aggressively hunt down massive buy orders, go after them, pick them up, and continue rolling down until others follow suit, then they buy back the shares of those selling at the bottom.
One way to win with them is to put your buy order in and walk away, or put 3 buy orders in, staggered 2 cents from each other, and walk away. They may fill one, or two, or all three, and you've benefitted. But whatever you do, don't chase the ask at this point. If you find yourself chasing the ask, stop and wait a day to buy. They're just luring you up so they can sell some shares and then short.
I think this will end soon enough, but while this game is being played, learn how to play it and you will greatly benefit.
Well, folks, I would like to see this go up as much as anyone, but get ready for one or two last "crushes" to the share price. Today's buying was superb (obviously), but the financeers want it low on July 1. I cannot predict the future better than anyone else, but if I had to guess, one of these days is going to be a huge red day again, and it will coincide with the conversion of shares. Once that takes place I think we are golden, but in the grand scheme of things today's "up" will lead into tomorrow's "down" and so it will go until the shorting manipulation is gone. Once the diluted shares have been converted and a portion sold off, this will go somewhere; until then it will be capped and always subject to a drop as massive as the sellers care to make it. We'll know more by the end of the week, and for sure by Monday. Tuesday will also be telling, for then we will find out how many of those shares Iroqouis wants to get rid of to protect their investment. Look for this thing to trade in a range for a while, like it did the past few months. Who knows where the range will be, but it might be in the mid-20's (bottom) to the lower-30's (top). FWIW. Cheers.
If you bought in the 24's and 25's, good buys! You might want to sell quickly while this thing is in the 30's. If you've been around the block for a while, you know more shorting is to come, and a lot more selling, and especially before July 1. 10-20% is what you made on your purchase...don't waste it. You'll be able to buy back in at a lower price. This is not bashing, but reality. There is a good future for WDDD, in my opinion, but it is going to take a rather long time, and between now and then the price is going to have some pretty low lows.
This stock is not on a long-term death spiral, but short term it is going to suffer some major blows, in my opinion. The reason I am guessing the price will drop to the lower 20's and/or high teens within the next 3 weeks is due dimply to the fact that the financeers will start dumping many shares on the market in order to lock in 15% profit. That will really hurt, in one of two ways: it will either drive the price down another 5%, or it will prevent the price from going anywhere North for a while. This is my opinion only. If you bought in the 40's, I would hold the stock long. But if you have not yet taken a position, I would wait and look for a bargain to come very soon.
I would stay out of this stock this week. By next week it should stabilize. My guess is this thing continues to drop due to shorting and selling and all the unsurety. Wait until after July 1, and maybe even wait until after the shareholder meeting in mid-July. It is very possible, even likely, that this thing hits the lower 20's soon, and maybe even the high teens, before it stabilizes.
If anyone cares for my thoughts (I don't assume you will), I think this stock is going to return back down to the levels of .17-.19. I don't think it will drop down to .1 or even .15, but to just under .2. Prior to this thing taking off it spent a lot of time in the upper teens, so for those of you who may not be aware, the financeers are not at all opposed to selling their shares at .17. They did it for quite a while. Floorless means floorless. Do you own diligence, but come August you'll have a much better idea of things than now. Come July, things could get pretty ugly around here, far more ugly than today. This doesn't mean the case has changed, but it does mean with more shares to be authorized, and the possibility of a reverse split, things are not looking up here anymore. If it gets down to the teens or lower 20's I'll be back, but not before then. Later.
I might see you all at the beginning of August. I think July 1 is the beginning of a slow move down. I might come back after the big dogs are done selling their diluted shares. For now, the prognosis between today and August 22 doesn't look all that great. The Markman was scheduled to be before the beginning of dilution, now it is after, and with the July 15 meeting to approve 150MM A/S and an R/S, I don't see this stock doing anything between now and mid-August. Dead money in my opinion, or even worse, diluted money. The great advantage of this was supposed to be the timing of the Markman relative to dilution. Now everything is backwards. We'll know more in 6 weeks how this plays out.
I'm out. Lost a lot as I bought a bunch in the .40's. Hope anyone who is taking financial advantage of the situation is happy. I have two children and am now down $8000. If you were trying to take money out of my back pocket, it worked. Hope you're proud of yourself.
If you're short, now would be a good time to cover.
Well, I'm not selling a share until it's all said and done. That was a very helpful article, confirming what I thought I already knew from reading up on the case, but wasn't really sure I knew and wasn't sure I ought to believe it. Now I'm sure. I'll have my ears tuned into the Markman one week from today, and especially to the results.
Here is the web address to EDVA's chart breakdown of projected share price for WDDD: the low end is $5.41; the high end is $8.14
http://www.scribd.com/doc/148826979/EDVA-Group-Damages-Analysis-WDDD-v-ATVI2
EDVA on WDDD. I cut and pasted the section on WDDD below:
Worlds litigation: There are 55 claims at issue in the Worlds Inc. vs. ATVI case covering five patents. In light of what happened to Vringo, must investors worry about a successful laches defense in the Worlds case? Nope. Worlds does not face the prospect of a laches defense as laches requires a longer period between the earliest date of constructive notice and the filing of an infringement suit. Anything greater than six years may be considered an unreasonable delay.
In Vringo's case the Lang-Kosak '420 Patent was issued ten years prior to the filing of the complaint and the Lang-Kosak '664 Patent was issued seven years prior to the complaint. The date of constructive notice for Google cited by Vringo was in 2004, still over six years from when the complaint was filed. While time is only one of the elements that factor into a judge's decision, it is considered something of a prerequisite for even attempting a laches defense. The earliest constructive notice cited by Worlds of the patents in suit is February 20, 2007, the day the '690 patent was granted. The original complaint against Activision was filed on March 30, 2012. The patent statute states "no recovery shall be had for any infringement committed more than six years prior to the filing of the complaint or counterclaim for infringement in the action" (35 USC section 286). A successful laches defense, by way of differentiation, means that no damages will be awarded prior to the date of complaint but that fire-breathing dragon may be checked off the "unwelcome surprise" list here.
Worlds has claimed that the infringement by Activision has been willful. Under 35 USC section 284, if a jury finds that infringement has been willful, the judge may offer enhanced damages of up to 3X any jury award. Worlds CEO Thom Kidrin stated in a February interview that he had past discussions on a joint venture with Activision CEO Robert Kotick but that Mr. Kotick and Activision decided instead to willfully infringe.
Games in suit: World of Warcraft (WOW) launched in November 2004. Call of Duty (COD) launched in November 2006. Since we know the earliest date of constructive notice being asserted by Worlds is the grant date of the '690 patent, we review revenues from February 2007 forward.
Estimated damages (what Worlds is likely to seek):
To skip to the actual damages chart immediately click here. Background commentary follows below:
The two Activision game franchises in suit have accounted for $15.1b in revenue for Activision between 2007-2012, an average of about $2.5b a year. WOW $7.1b: (2007-2009: source: 3/1/10, 10-K p. 11, 42 & 2010-2012: source: 2/27/13, amended 10-K p. 11, 46) COD $8b: (2007-2012: source: 2/27/13, amended 10-K p.8).
Should this case make it to trial it is likely to be scheduled sometime during the first half of 2014. We assume a final order by the court at the end of 2014. Each franchise released a new update toward the end of 2012 and we postulate that $3b is a reasonable total addition for these two games in 2013. 2014 remains flat (no growth). There is a bit of guesswork in trying to divine trial dates and final orders but the substantive points remain valid. To that end over 90% of patent suits settle before trial (Georgetown law journal v. 99 p. 667) and we have some confidence in saying that Activision, should they lose this Markman, can ill afford to play the scorched earth game that Google (with seemingly unlimited funds) has played with Vringo.
A damages expert will need to decide to what portion of Activision's revenue a royalty number should be ascribed. After observing the VRNG trial firsthand I am reasonably convinced that Dr. Becker, Vringo's damages expert, could have settled on the high end of his apportionment (apportionment being the percent of the defendant's revenue that plaintiff feels is attributable to the patented invention) range (40%) and that is the number we would be discussing today instead of 20.9%. His apportionment went "unanswered" by Google other than to simply deride it as fantastical by utilizing "experts" quickly exposed on the stand as something short of expert by the litigation team from Dickstein Shapiro (plaintiff counsel). Quinn Emanuel, counsel for Google, seemed to fear that offering their own number might be seen as tacit admission of infringement, or if the number they offered departed too much to the downside from the norm, they would be viewed unfavorably.
45% Apportionment: We believe Worlds will seek an apportionment in the 40-55% range if its argument for implementation of the Entire Market Value Rule (EMVR) proves fruitless. Because the nature of the infringing element(s) are such in the Worlds case that they could be considered a central reason for game participation, absent EMVR (explained in detail here), we see an apportionment argument for 45% or better (of U.S. revenues which we approximate to be 50% of worldwide over the damages term).
The reason for this, and the reason we think too that an EMVR argument may prevail, is that the Worlds invention may well be compared to a 3-D theme park ride in which one feels like an active participant in the experience. While the "theme" of the rides may change, just as games do, we think any well-crafted survey would reveal that the "active participant" feature is the primary reason for participation, which sure sounds like what a "scalable architecture for a 3-D virtual world" seems to provide.
What royalty would a damages expert for Worlds suggest to a jury? It seems logical that a royalty might land anywhere from 3-10%, perhaps more due to the commercial success of these particular games and/or any relevant contract for royalties. Our model utilizes 7% which is somewhat paltry in comparison to contractual evidence which we provide later in this article. Using this data point we get $332M in past damages. If Susman Godfrey (Worlds counsel) makes a convincing case for willful infringement the award may be trebled (which our chart assumes) leaving $997M. We do not currently see how infringement will be separated in this case from willful infringement; therefore we submit that if there is infringement at all, it will be deemed willful.
What about a future royalty? The '690 patent does not expire until August 2020. Using $3b per year in revenues (with a conservative 3% growth rate) for the two games, a 45% apportionment and a 7% royalty we get another $296M on U.S. revenues. Collectively, total damages would be approximately $1.29 billion. Project 35% for Susman Godfrey ($452.5M) and Worlds is left with $840.5M of which another 35% goes to pay taxes, netting them $546M. But wait, Worlds has approximately $41.5M in net operating losses that we project will reach $43M by the end of 2014. Therefore, $797.5M will be taxed. The net-yield with an after tax add back of $43M becomes $561M (this calculation may be performed several ways).
What about other infringers? The MMORPG Market is expected to grow to $17.5 billion in 2015 (source: Superdata Research & Newzoo 2012) from about $13.8 billion in 2013. We expect that Worlds will aggressively pursue license agreements in the event of successful litigation, most likely closely following a successful Markman order.
Should Worlds successfully license to companies producing half of these revenues (beginning in 2014 until the patents expire), they will profit from nearly six years of licenses. Following the same apportionment and royalty formula from the Activision case, this would yield another $126M annually on average. We calculate another $319M to Worlds after legal and taxes, which would add another approximately $4 to Worlds share price at current outstanding share levels.
We suggest this is a calculus that Activision may be focused on if they lose the Markman. They could offer Worlds $250-275M to purchase the patents in suit, (and any other of the continuation patents to the '690), and have a fairly strong likelihood of recouping that money through licenses instead of facing prolonged and potentially costly litigation. For Worlds and its longtime investors it would offer a clean exit at an attractive multiple.
Should Worlds win the Markman and be forced to play this out we see the potential for a $10 stock based solely on awards in the Activision case. A prevailing Worlds' motion for application of the EMVR would have Katy barring that door - $10.55b x 7%, yielding $738.5M in past damages. Treble that per the willful argument above and we have $2.2b in past damages alone with another $658M in future royalties.
We are not really suggesting this is going to happen; on the contrary we take a fairly conservative line in our calculations. We suggest only that there is a path to such a number. The question for investors is whether a billion dollar award is achievable in this case? It certainly appears so, in no small part because Worlds has prosecuted its patents carefully and has strengthened its hand through what it learned from its previous litigation with NCsoft. Given this, we view Worlds as the preferred high-growth investment in this space and we suggest, at minimum, that investors take a hard look here.
Caveats:
1. The sensitivity analysis at the bottom of our damages chart reflects the percentage likelihood that the litigation does not support our specific case for Worlds. It also reflects our thinking between a 45% apportionment (more likely) and the EMVR (less likely).
2. There is some question, which we continue to explore and debate internally, regarding Activision revenues from Europe and Asia and whether some percentage of those revenues may be subject to a damage award in this case. We believe that Susman Godfrey may be examining this very issue. Given what may be a not insignificant number of overseas players of WOW & COD connecting through U.S. servers, there may be a legal basis to conclude that this infringement occurs in the U.S. and as such would be subject to damages. A quote from the "faq page" of a service called Smoothping, which claims to offer a faster way to play multiplayer online games like World of Warcraft, appears below. The internet is rife with international players discussing connecting through U.S. servers for these games.
"For International players, your best option might be where your traffic first enters the USA. For example, if you are from Australia and play on a WoW Server located in Chicago, you might find you have better in-game latency connecting to a Smoothping Los Angeles server, rather than our Chicago servers. If you are from Brazil and play on a WoW Server located in Chicago, you might find you have better in-game ping when connected to a Smoothping New York server, rather than our Chicago servers."
We include several links to documents, one which is commentary on the royalty arrangement struck between Activision and NetEase (based in China) for rights to host and distribute the World of Warcraft game, the other a contract made public during legal proceedings between the founders of Infinity Ward and Activision. The contract is between Bungie and Activision Publishing (subsidiary controlling Call of Duty). Each provides insights into how Activision values its games. In the Bungie deal (summarized here) we see significant revenue sharing and incentives to create games, which they can only hope will be as popular as World of Warcraft and Call of Duty. In the NetEase deal it is reported that Activision was granted a 55% royalty, giving us a sense of what licensing the game rights is worth to Activision. We feel certain that Susman Godfrey will use these and other examples like them to draw comparisons between how they are valued and how the architecture central to the operation of these games should be valued.
Since you are the only self-proclaimed person on this board in the know, we'd appreciate it if you would inform those of us who aren't quite as knowledgeable. TIA.
Yes, flip-flopping:
Statements you made previously:
-Iroquois is done shorting; this thing is going to fly.
-If only you guys knew what I know about an investor, this thing would be trading at .6 by now.
Statement you're making today:
-This thing might trade down to .35, even .3.
Flip-flopping. Otherwise known as pumping, dumping, and filling up again when others are dumping because you scared them. In person, it's called stealing.
Thanks for your flip-flopping Joe. That will be the last time I lend any credibility to your writings. You're no different, and have no more integrity, than all the other flip-floppers, one of whom has left whose name was water from the sky. You can write whatever you want, but what you write, and how you trade accordingly, matters to your credibility. You just lost yours in my eyes. It's nothing personal; it's just learning who you can trust and who is in it to take money out of the back pocket of others.
The case hasn't changed an ounce, for those invested. The only thing that has changed is the pumpers decided to make some greedy, short term money off those holding.
Dow Jones Industrial Average...it's down about $500 in two days. That's what he is referring to.
If the Markman hearing is successful, .5 will be a distant memory. There are stocks which back up this fact. Just because you say something does not make it true. Chances are with a successful Markman this stock will hit at least $1.00, and any hint of a settlement with ATVI will send it soaring even higher. Take a look at PRKR and VRNG and learn something from their share price pattern.
Does anyone know who is selling at these prices? This doesn't make any sense unless someone is trying to manipulate things.
Anico, you seem extremely worried about this. Sell your whole position and enter something with a bit less risk if this is driving you crazy. Hate to see someone's quality of life decrease because of the stress of being overly invested in a stock like this one.
I mean well for you, not ill.
It really doesn't matter what any of us think. This has traded in a trench between .39 and .49 for quite a while now. It appears the ones in charge have sort of abided by these limits and don't plan to stray very far from them. .3 seems a stretch to me, even .35. My guess is we've hit the low now (within a penny), and we'll hover for a bit, and then slowly creep up. My suggestion? Play within these limits and don't get stressed. A positive Markman will break us right through the roof...a long ways through the roof.
Is .35 a magic number for them? Why .35 in your opinion? Just curious.
Here it is folks...fill out the rest of your position. These are bargain basement, garage sale prices! Next week Friday is the last of the trading days in June, so if EDVA's article does nothing, and the Markman hearing itself does nothing, then for sure July 1 will be a monumental day, marking the end of the share price suppression. Get ready. If history is any indication, the price should stay here for today and part of tomorrow, and then creep up. It is very possible that this is the last dip before a big run.