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Yes and yes. Thank-you.
Those are signs that I should be off the boards for a few days.
Have fun.
No, but I'll make a note to see it. There's the pessimist, the optimist and the realist. Being too optimistic about a stock has caused me money so I try to keep an even keel and temper it with some humour once in awhile to stay sane.
IMO, the only saving grace for MSLP (Brad and Cory) is to make the company profitable.
I thought we went over unchecked optimism before?
4,500 x 6 = $27,000. If you're orgasmic over this number, then BACK TO THE DUNGEON YOU GO!
This is deep in the oversold territory. Probably on traders' screen looking for quick 10-30% gain. Maybe a trading opportunity, but I'm sitting this one out.
"Frost didn't want to look like a thief!"
Or he's using the incremental strategy. Get your feet in the door, see how things go, and decrease or increase your investment depending the company's progress. This is a very common strategy that Warren Buffett uses.
MSLP has no bondholders or secured creditors, so if it goes belly-up preferred shareholders (after payroll) get first claim to its assets.
Also, if you keep pouring money into MSLP, you're essentially saying that of all the thousands of stocks out there, MSLP has the most potential. That's far from being the truth. You should hedge your bet because although MSLP has potential, it's not the only game in town.
Never get emotional attached to a stock.
I don't follow this board that much but from what understand today, there's some good melodramatic soap opera going on here.
"Sales from a fish or cattle farm can continue for decades."
Precisely why I like SIAF's potential. 1.3 billion people need A LOT of food. Studies have shown that as a nation's GDP increases, so does its consumption of beef.
Thank-you, Bohica. A very informative post by RealDutch.
"The JV partners pay for the whole construction."
Okay, the JV partners pay for the whole construction. But SIAF has been paid tens of millions for "construction and consulting" services during that time (over $100 million revenue). On top of that, SIAF has raised tens of millions on the open market. On top of that, SIAF continues to raise millions on the open market. Where did all that tens of millions(maybe up to over two hundred million, including revenue, now) go?
I get the impression money has been shuffled around as revenue between the parties involved to window dress the company until revenues from products are realized.
Before I go all-in, I want to have all my bases covered.
"The percentage of sales from products is dramatically increasing."
This is very reassuring and makes SIAF legit. The "construction and consulting" services revenue didn't sit too well with me. People can charge different prices for the same "services."
Thanks, Snow. I added some shares awhile back and want to do some further DD.
At this point, most of the $100 million in revenue is not from sales of prawn, fish, fertilizer, or cattle, but from "construction and consulting services."
When the facilities are complete (the construction projects are done) we can expect the "construction and consulting" revenue stream to drastically decelerate? Then revenue from prawn, fish, fertilizer, and cattle to accelerate? I think there's gong to be a huge gap in revenue once the facilities are complete since construction and consulting services are currently a large part of revenue.
Thanks, Treit.
"...a lot of revenue comes from construction and consulting."
I'm assuming that at the end of it all SIAF will end up owning those facilities. If that's the case and they're booking most of the $100 million revenue from "construction and consulting services", this tells me that most of that revenue is from accounting gain and little to do with their product sales. They're charging themselves and booking it as revenue. This is a practice not considered normal according to most accounting rules.
This is the norm as I understand it where I live:
--get money from investors.
--build facilities.
--book spending as capital expenditure. This should show a massive loss until the facilities are completed.
--generate sales from products at facilities. Then book revenues.
Company still has huge potential, but I think there could be some funky Chinese accounting going on here.
Thanks, Snow.
Who are they charging for these "consulting services"? And who ends up owning the facilities?
I would think that in the normal course of business, SIAF pays the construction companies to build the facilities, books the expenditures as capital ex. and shows massive losses until those facilities generate revenues. And SIAF ends up owning those facilities.
I'm not sure about this business of being paid "consulting services" by another party while having their facilities built is normal. Maybe I'm missing something here?
I have a concern and hope a long, especially anyone who was on the investors' tour can address.
I've looked at the facility pictures on SIAF's Facebook page. With the exception of one cattle farm and the restaurant, the remaining facilities appeared to be in a state of construction and incomplete. If SIAF generated about USD 100 million the last four quarters, what facilities was the revenue from?
I have taken into consideration that maybe not all facilities were posted on FB. If that's the case, what other facilities are there?
If everything is legit, in the right market condition, SIAF could be a 30-50 bagger, IMO.
Some of you might be wondering about the recent silence from MSLPP management. A new group photo of John Bluher (notice the position of his hand), Brad, and Cory may shed light on the subject.
http://boxofficebuz.com/content/movies/379/posters/full/3Stooges_UK1Sht_AW3.jpg
If I was in this deep already I would hold until the Macular Health clinical trial announcement and/or any possible large distribution deal (possibly 7-11). IMO, it may be premature to sell before one or both of those events. We may even get surprise announcements along the way.
I used to have high regard for Seeking Alpha articles. I recently came across its "POLICY ON ANONYMOUS CONTRIBUTORS." I'm not sure if the policy is new but I don't recall reading so many articles written by pseudonyms as I do now.
IMO, paid pumpers using pseudonyms are now rampant on the site.
"While Seeking Alpha editors greatly prefer that our authors use their real names, we recognize that is not always possible. Due to regulations at their workplace or other factors, some contributors are not able to reveal their real names. In addition, many well-known, veteran stock market bloggers (some of the finest, in fact) write under a pseudonym.
To allow these writers to reach a broad investment public that's interested in reading and discussing their ideas, Seeking Alpha permits our contributors to remain anonymous to the public if they prefer. Our assumption, as always, is that our readers desire rigorous and insightful research and opinion on the stocks and sectors they follow - the author is ultimately less important than the ideas conveyed.
There are firm limits to this anonymity, however: Seeking Alpha holds our anonymous contributors to the same compliance and biographical standards as contributors who write under their own name. We insist on receiving the author's real name and contact information (which we keep confidential) and maintain a correspondence with the author, forwarding the author any questions or concerns that may emerge about their articles. Stock positions held by anonymous authors must also be disclosed..."
LIWA Inching up under the radar for about a month now.
"Despite repeated quarters of double-digit growth, Lihua's stock has failed to rise. A combination of short selling and skepticism towards Chinese RTOs has left LIWA with an unreasonably low stock price despite two independent financial reports confirming the validity of their operations. In their last quarter (3Q)..."
LIWA reported 53.5% year-over-year revenue growth as well as a 27% increase in net income. With a market cap of 160mm and a share price of 5.20, LIWA reported an adjusted EBITDA of 23.6mm, which annualized equates to a 1.43 times EBITDA. Lihua International's balance sheet also shows a lack of debt and $130.5 million in cash on September 30, 2012. As of right now, the company has a book value of $8.00.
Their most comparable Chinese peer, Fushi Copperworld Inc. (FSIN), traded at roughly 5x LIWA's P/E before the company was taken private in December. American peer, Encore Wire Corp. (WIRE), trades at about 8x LIWA's P/E. Both of these comparisons would equate to a value of at least mid 20s on LIWA without even taking into account their cash or growth rate.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1177821-lihua-international-looks-significantly-undervalued?source=google_news
I haven't a clue what happened. But if the pps hits $10 on a trading pop, I have a suspicion he'll be back.
If your assumption is right about the
3 months ending 2013-March-31
Then go all-in in early March.
I'd like you to put your money where your mouth is and make that announcement.
"And do not be fooled this stock is bigger than one thinks!"
I have one foot in the door. IMO, there's no safe time to go all-in with MSLP. Management is too unpredictable.
And please don't get me started with companies with strong brands and hundreds of millions in revenue are safe bets...Kodak, AIG, Kodak, GM, Polaroid, Hostess...
From my experience, the sustained movement of a stock price is always preceded by fundamental changes in the company.
So, let's do a mental exercise together of what these fundamental changes may be.
It's already a given that the 2012 annual report will show a massive loss, based on the first 3 quarters alone.
----------------------------
3 months ending 2012-December-31
----------------------------
This quarter is expected to show a massive loss. Strong sales growth, though.
-----------------------------
3 months ending 2013-March-31
------------------------------
What will this quarter bring with the new cash infusion from Mr. Frost? CFP? Profitability is out of the question, IMO. The quarter's already 1/2 over.
----------------------------
3 months ending 2013-June-30
----------------------------
What about this quarter? Profitability if you're an optimist, accompanied by continued sales growth? Dilution if costs aren't under control.
--------------------------
3 months ending 2013-September-30
--------------------------
And here? Profitability if you're an optimist. The pps usually moves ahead of news, so the company's profitable, the stock will surge...
You can play the pops based on the technicals and make good money, but long-term, it's quarter-to-quarter improvements that will determine if MSLP becomes a 6-bagger.
It does appear to be in the oversold territory and a spike is possible based on technicals alone. Even if that was the case, what would sustain it?
The only catalysts I could see that would sustain any potential rally are:
--CFP
--profitability
--buyout offer shocker
I like the potential of strong technicals combined with pending news releases of distribution agreements. Makes for a good run.
I've written about this issue a few times in the past. For a $3 product, we need to move massive amounts of it to make money. It needs to be in thousands, then tens of thousands of retailers.
For a $3 product:
--the manufacturer gets how much?
--the distributor gets how much?
--the retailer gets how much?
What does that leave us after those guys get a cut of our $3 product? Not much. It's a numbers game.
This type of retail strategy has already been mastered by 5hr Energy. There's no need for management to reinvent the wheel. IMO, management is courting disaster if they intend to position this as a niche product (Dick's, CVS, Walgreens only). It needs to be in mainstream distribution.
Back to the dungeon for you suffering longs. lol.
UNCHECKED OPTIMISM.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=84097403
Bajista, I'm in Edmonton, Canada. We don't follow baseball that closely. But photography and videography are my summer hobbies and I'm a big fan of working with hot models.
http://www.youtube.com/EncognitiveVids
E-Z FUSE money in the next two months. Looks like the stage has been set for the next run, IMO.
Oh, I forget, another bombshell catalyst may be a buyout announcement. One day you look at MSLP's ticker and see a 180% increase. What the...?
Just keeping all options open.
The Frost honeymoon is over.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=84097043
A NASDAQ listing is not a fundamental change in the company. If anything, the company's history will get scrutinized closer on a larger exchange.
The only catalyst now is CFP or profitability.
Avocet used a very apt analogy: Long-term shareholders took MSLP to the dance but it may be leaving with someone else. If there's another round of large dilution, as Justlovethegame predicts, the company may become a wildly successful supplement giant but long-term shareholders won't share in its success.
Just my opinion.
IMO, a 6-bagger is still possible at this price, providing the company is profitable in the next two quarters and there's no further dilution. If there's another round of dilution, it's hard to see the pps at $15, and Mr. Frost and his team will walk away with the company.
The stock recent ran from $4.20 to $7.95, that's about an 85% gain in 10 days. I'm surprised no long has said they made e-z money during that run. I managed to make 30%, not quite the killer instinct but still e-z money. Being a long shouldn't preclude anyone from trading the stock when the opportunities present themselves.
MSLP lyrics for suffering longs, “Ooohhhhh, I know I didn’t mean to cause you any pain but it looks like I did it again.”
Doubled on CSIQ and still holding.
The only safe Chicom play I feel comfortable holding right now is CXDC. Morgan Stanley Asia seeded the company with USD 150 million, so it should be safe. Amazing fundamentals and phenomenal growth.
torackmon, it's "prokopton." You crazed passive-aggressive MSLP animal.
Have fun, everyone.
I don't know how much Mr. Frost has lost. But I know I may be losing about 30% of all the profit I've made in the last 5 months in this one stock I own.
I'm off the boards for awhile.
Get along and have fun!
Neuronal, my friend, where do I even begin with this one?
Skype was a pioneer in voice IP and has a patent portfolio. High barrier to entry.
Skype has the "mass effect." One user added to its network adds considerable value to the network. Think facebook. Once people have a Skype ID, they have their contacts, etc. It's hard for them to move to another service.
There is no barrier to entry in MP's market. If they were to disappear tomorrow, 5-10 companies are ready to take their place.
"So you didn't even check to see what the truth was you just trusted some hack Seeking Alpha bloggers word for it?"
But haven't you re-posted several Seeking Alpha articles in support of your position? And several "unchecked" articles from other Internet sources?
All those positives are great. Kudos to management. But there's one thing that trumps them all: profitability.
If MP doesn't show a profit soon it will go the same way as companies with strong brands and high revenues: Kodak, Polaroid, Hostess, etc.
Bajista and Rjanderson and have been kind enough to point out specific metrics that need to be improved and the canned replies are always copy and paste pump articles and "$100 million revenue!"
Maybe some of us here should consider what their dd.
There was an article posted a few days ago by someone on this board. I won't waste my time finding it. I have more important things to do.
Turokman, my friend, where do I even begin with this one?
Comaparing USG to MSLP
If you looked at USG's income statement you will notice that there were periods in which it made insane money (when the housing market was good). Then there were quarters it didn't do too well (during the housing market downturn). So, buy construction stocks during the downturn and reap the rewards during the upturn, which has always happened. This is known as an industry "cyclical" play. Not to be confused with a "turnaround" play.
Now, look at MP's income for the last 4 years. A loss every year.