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Revenues have been increasing and expenses have been coming down. They are better than what they were and hence that cannot be a reason for the downward spiral. At best the price could have remained in the high or mid teens.
I feel that their dire situation with respect to finance available for operations, the huge RS ratios announced and the impending dilution post RS are responsible for the current situation. I feel their fiscal management has been poor.
I do agree that the revenue jump should be far more than what they are currently managing.
A1/Pasta,
The fact remains that marking components only provides traceability whether the DLA marks it or the supplier marks it. Marking does not guarantee authenticity.
Hence even if the DLA chooses to mark components, they can still ask APDN to provide a unique marker per supplier. This way they can still trace a component back to the supplier. What they have done away with is simply the setup cost at each supplier, which was really what some of them were objecting to.
So while APDN will lose the setup revenue, they can get to mark a much larger volume of products as it will now be easier for the DLA to bring more classes under this rule( no objections from the industry as it couldn't care less.
What is critical is for APDN to not get bullied by the DLA and price it's markers and ink appropriately. APDN should also start projecting some revenues based on future authentication opportunities.
The dam spread is so much that even .0950 is difficult to reach. 10/11 seems far away.
God knows what games are being played.
The way this stock trades, it can bore us to death.
Guess that must be the strategy to get all the small timers out so that the big guys can come in and rake the moolah
Yes Buccos. You are right. All I am saying is that they have some guys lined up in all probability.
As expected. A drop back to 9 cents. This is surely manipulation at its best.
Quite possible. In any case there is no other logic that can explain the way it is trading. 2 million one day, 800,000 or less the next and now 2.4 million today.
It must be that. With all this volume the price has not risen much. This does stink of manipulation.
Yes but they probably have some guys lined up.
Regarding lasting through the RS, I am not sure about where they stand. Hopefully they will manage.
Yes that's likely to be the scene, unless we see a rapid climb in a day or two.
Not the way it is trading right now.
The spread is too much. That can cause a slump with even a small trade at the Bid price. Hope that does not happen by end of day.
This is the link to it.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=63907322&symbol=APDN
Yes Mike.
Anything to get the volume and pps up. LOL.
We have already had a PR on financing options to the tune of $12 million recently with an option for more. You must have missed that.
It will be post RS.
No kbar. With a proposed RS ratio of 1:40, just 10 cents can get us to $4. The problem will be with sustaining the $4 price for some months, to remain listed.
Hence a cushion above $4 will be welcome. Hence APDN might use the highest permissible ratio of 1:60, if the share price is low. If the pps is in the teens, then we benefit in two ways:
1. We could do with the lowest ratio of 1:40 and
2. Even a pps of 13 cents will put us at $5.20 at this ratio.
Anything higher will be even better. Unfortunately, I understand that the lowest ratio to be used will be 1:40. Hence even if we reach a pps of 15 cents by luck, we will be listed at $6 but they will not reduce the RS ratio further.
Surely the guys buying today, particularly the 555,000 deal, must be seeing some sense in buying now.
I would be happy to see mid teens before the RS.
Yes. A simple 100 share trade at a lower price point is enough to drop the price.
The climb up seems difficult. Yet rather surprised to see volume cross 2 million already. But we seem to be struggling in the 9 cent range.
Hope we break the 10/11 cent range. If that happens, we might see an upward move into the teens.
Need some good PRs now.
Please read as vol and not Bol. Dam this auto correct feature.
Wow!!! Bol of 1.1 million already but not much of a price swing.
Perplexing!!
Hope so. High time.
Buys of 600000 and 300000 at .095
Good comparison.
These guys will say that the stock options in those other companies are worth a lot more.
Then APDN should also make their stock worth a lot more. No point in taking both, fancy salaries and stock options too.
That is what I have been saying. Based on the comparison, we should be at least in the high teens of 20s.
The current price is no way justified cause APDN's situation was never better. Than what it is now.
Why then, is my question.
Their technology is great. No two thoughts on that. They lack a in field reader, which they are working on.
They lack fiscal control is what I feel and their revenue model is not the best. Just my opinion.
Yes but then they can't be a one trick pony.
What about the numerous other partnerships that they have announced. Why have they not succeeded in leveraging them.
Yes.
The quarterly results will be critical but going by past experience, they will not be sensational, which is what we need. Other than that they can only make some silly partnership announcements which get us nowhere.
I think Debbie Bailey is in charge of Investor Relations and Mitchell Miller is in charge of Communications.
Sure. Give it a try. Generally Debbie or Mitchell are quite responsive.
Yes Mark. They are in a fix and they are responsible for getting into this situation. One can't simply keep spending without a sight on revenues and expenses.
One has to balance the budget.
We need to seek some answers from Stony Brook. Why not blast them with some emails.
I have been doing that for some time now and they must be quite fed up with me.
Obviously we will get no answers but who knows. One of us may.
Where is the bottom.
Are we going back to the 4/6 cent days. God hope not. The climb back will be another few years then. An RS at these levels will be hell.
Thanks CK. Appreciate your point of view.
CK,
My viewpoint.
Maybe FMV is not appropriate for a stock like APDN as it does not have a mature business model. A lot of its value probably lies in its future potential.
Having said that, what worries me is that APDN has been around for quite some time now. Can we really say that it is a company in its developmental stage. Their core technology has more or less been there all these years. Yes they have found new applications and might have refined it here and there.
I am intrigued by the fact that this stock hit a high of 29 cents back in 2011/12 time frame. That was on the basis of one DLA contract. Outstanding shares were already high by then. Revenues were not high and expenses were hitting the roof. Since then, we have had multiple contracts from the private sector, the DLA, MDA etc. Revenues have been steadily increasing and hitting record highs. Expenses have been steadily decreasing. Things could have been better but then they have not been all that bad.
Why then has the stock price fallen from 29 cents to the current levels of almost 8.5 cents. Is something else wrong with the company. Bad financial management? Things which have not been disclosed to average shareholders? Why did the sentiment become negative over a period of time. Any other penny stock with the kind of announcements and progress shown by APDN, would have appreciated handsomely. Not the case with APDN.
I liked the analysis Kav. I was just having a look at their websites and coming to the same conclusion.
In all fairness, as you have mentioned, the PR has not been issued by APDN as they probably realize that it will not make great news. For all you know it might be bad news for APDN.
In hind sight, I should have bailed out when you did and got got in again if at all, at these lower price points. As it stands today, even 11 cents seems like a long way away now.
That's the problem.
We have no say and the board and don't have a clue about whatever is cooking out there.
It is a point of view and it is the reality. Just don't be positive for the heck of being positive.
This stock has been around for years now and some of these baby steps are not what is expected from a company which has been touting this technology for more than 10 years now.
People like us who have been around for years are sick and tired of promises and the hopes of a bright future. We would like to see some promising results not a PPs which falls from the high 20s to below 10 cents after all these announcements.
They are no longer in a gestation period. High time they come out of it. Being positive is fine for some who may have entered this stock yesterday but let's not ignore the past and bury our head in sand, hoping that all is fine.
Unfortunately even Agora has stopped pumping this one.
Well one of the positives is that if they succeed with this, they can approach some of the bigger online retailers like Amazon and umpteen others.
Too futuristic. This stock only has great possibilities and a bright future but no present.
Oh no TCMB. That was not for you. The news was welcome but I was simply responding to A1's post.
Invariably such partnership announcements have done no good for the stock. In fact none of their partnerships, even those with bigger companies, have led to any significant jump in revenues. I have never understood how APDN has benefited from them.
Some of them have been with such big names that one would have at least expected an immediate impact. Neither has APDN ever kept us informed about how they have been progressing with each of their tie-ups.
Just another one of their partnerships that they keep announcing with no significant impact on revenues. Makes no sense to me.
No wonder the market is not impressed.
Mike - I can relate to your frame of mind. I go through the same frustrations and end up being negative on the board but this stock has disappointed me a lot too.
Not easy to overlook the frustrations. We deserved a lot better. Nothing on this earth seems to move it in the right direction and I feel that we just don't have a clue of whatever is cooking behind closed doors.
Have stopped posting as a result. Not giving up but I just don't want to upset others.