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I feel your (understandable) frustration.
Why not looking in them (your) charts and derive from them a TIME-line for "it's going to be doing this (or that)"
I can't explain yet why, maybe because how you talk, but there is an element of urgency in your presentation whereas there is absolutely nothing like this in reality (technically) to support any type of urgency.
And the "nothing like this" is in your chart, staring us in the face, TECHNICALLY.
So let me clear it again as you tend to go astray with interpreting my posts, into question is not the what but the TIME-line.
In other words WHEN to expect the this or that.
Think two things :
1. cycle
2. the bottom of your chart
Stay calm (especially with those charts)
p.s. I have the gold on my watch as well (!)
367 right now a daytrade with calls
should be a win
Go get them tiger. I don't have that courage.
Most I can do I may sell (close) longs.
Does it shock you that they ALL play games?
SCharts has TYD
Yesterday close 58.685
Today 58.83 (or +0.15 or +0.25%)
BTW, yesterday's low was 58.666 (no comment Lol)
You do it puts, you may be luckier than me..
367.5 doesn't contradicts my resistance band estimate.
But yeah, what's thereafter the resistance hold (if)..
I notice more bearish development in my charts today.
Not a thousand cuts yet tho..
so the st resistance appears to be 367.2 (lower band edge) to 368 (higher band edge) area.
Algos are set for now like that (where to sell into buying).
A breach of lower band would open up the upper band for a tag.
BB seems also tighter when forward correlation is low
like now
also ATH of SPX status is missing from the pic
Simple things are good but we can add another 2 and still keep it simple
Like bonds?
(RE and bonds vs SPX)
One of the few sane things said here
Dude, I don't want to read anything..
It's ALL money printing.
It's all they have, it's all there is.
I don't need or want to read anything.
If you have something about TA maybe I'd read that.
Simple. That's it.
It is true, and I do plan to be a billionaire, thank you sir.
Long live TA
Long live strategy and planning (which you dismissed and/or forgotten 100%).
I can't show my work, but even simple things work , like buying calls when hourly BB is up and average down. IT MAKES REALLY GOOD MONEY I MIGHT ADD !
Whining and complaining, OR trading ---> Only ONE of them is making money !
Only ONE of them is bringing satisfaction and happiness !
nonsense, the market has been with fed cash support for TWENTY YEARS now.
NOT from September.
NOTHING BROKE in September since all there is it's printing money.
It's all for the show.
Market is in uptrend PERIOD !!!!!!!!!!!
The reverse is true too
There are NOT enough lines
Lots of pivots and points left out and ignored
By all of us I might add
I don't understand frustrated/juvenile talk made on a (supposedly) technical board when technical things are still out there in plain sight and not discussed yet.
For example, the price bounced off support is a textbook such example.
duh
or
"Trend is up, and that's what we expect to continue.."
duh
I don't even go into fundamentals which are in the same line of thinking.
... so where is to read anything like ... "I buy support , or I buy mid BB , I buy dip ---> in this easy to trade UPTREND"
Nowhere, that's where
[sigh]
I see this board as a carriage where horses are sitting inside the carriage and expect the one two horses to do all the pulling
Yeah, lurking works and things moving foreword, NOT
OMG
That's what it would seem, but that only in places that is a match more or less.
So I tried a moving average (5, then 7, then 10, then on lower CCI like 7, then on higher like 20) - no dice, you are better off with simple CCI.
And then...
...mid October to mid November no match, very apart, almost opposite.
I also tried indicators over CCI (even CCI of CCI), no deal.
What I can say is that whatever it is it seems to make CCI more of an oscillator.
So I think the formula was altered to allow it to oscillate more, while also smoother more.
In the end it might not even resemble a CCI, I feel it to be more like a stochastic.
In the middle of the post I thought of the fact of RSI, so I thought, yeah, that 'might' work. And tried RSI 14 with CCI 10, and the CCI 10 then started to resemble more appropriately except still not exactly and still not smooth.
Hi, speaking of indicators, I spent some time struggling to make sense of an indicator but only going nowhere.
Maybe you (and/or others that like charting) can see the light ?
I couldn't.
Here's the thing:
On a daily chart, there is this plain vanilla CCI(10) indicator.
Here's the problem:
The darn CCI(10) (chart above - someones') seems DIFFERENT ("special") than the NORMAL CCI(10) (chart bellow - my chart)
Notice the November and December 2017, there the difference is more outstanding.
Also, the last CCI(10) number, in his chart close CCI(10) value is 115.27 , while in my chart the normal CCI(10) closing value is 92.07 (Yes, both charts close in same day, July 13, 2017)
Good Luck
Going to work now, watching from my phone..
y'all have a wonderful day
imo they changed their mind and postponed the correction
next week boys and girls, next week
(although the day/week is not over yet, so a close bellow yesterday can still happen)
If I had full control of a country , i would avoid USD as any type of reserves except maybe for my countrymen to have a LITTLE for travel needs, therefore no dumping on my country will take place. And i will peg my currency to a basket of commodities not just gold.
My country would be able to compete as currency will be realistic, while no other country including US will be able to dump their inflation on my country.
I will only have the inflation my country creates and wants.
I'm no economist, but just like I'm not a singer, I still can call a bad one if I see one.
Target Nr2 -> 1.10
Target Nr3 -> 1.05
Target Nr4 -> 0.95
Going bellow 0.90 is gonna be lots of pain if it happens.
I remember very well the parity times of 2008 to 2012
But targets may not be reached also, or can be violated right through
Yes, that's exactly what it means in regard to dumping on others.
Astonishing that inflation of 100% can happen in an oil rich country.
I guess Chavez had the right data so he was right, but was powerless nevertheless, amazing again.
The second part I understand (Chavez). The first part I don't (100% inflation).
But looking at the chart is clearly shows that the bulk of the inflationary problem is in covid time-zone.
The problem is that Venezuela's printing had consequences we can all see, whereas US printing didn't as it was all dumped on others.
Also possible they play (the people/traders/us) on FOMO concept.
People remember the market superbullishness after Trump was in, so they naturally expect the same now (disregarding the negativities all around including the tax increases policy threats)
When all in, then close the doors...
But how do I know "all in" thing, that data is not for us..
So I go to the charts, it's all I can do
By the way, USD is not crushed, let's keep things calm and hyperbole-free now if we want to win here
I like good sarcasm. You should read on US constitution portions of finance and stuff on central banking.
I didn't read as I don't have time, but I listened to podcasts where this subject was discussed now and then.
Boy it's an eye opening.
But sarcasm aside, I think that we should put our heads between our legs defensively if stocks AND Gold go up. IMO THAT will be the collapse of the dollar they try so far to avoid while abusing the dollar status continuously.
I don't know of what 'pretty accuracy' you are referring to as there were ridiculous failures people were laughing at too, and periods where he was not surfacing on the board because of that.
There were periods with good forecast? yes.
But then we all have ups and downs.
My attention above NN noise (boy that was difficult), was for a little while to the OEPM since I understood it from my own studies, then at forward longer term forecast which I never attempted (and probably never will).
To the latter, while could be few things, I suspect it to be a plain vanilla copy-paste of common formations and extrapolated into the future as trend has been up and up and up and only up.
If you will think of it as a river where the water flows in only one direction with very few left and right (and few spots towards back). Now if you observe the occasional branches and other things felt into the water floating down the river, they follow the same left-right pattern around stones and turns, and maintain the same course as the main stream. So while it seems impossible to map it, you can take a bet and forecast the trajectory of a floating object pretty accurately.
Same in charting. And that what I suspect here.
You noticed probably many instances where portions of charts from some periods are eerily similar to another period. Some people point it out now and then too.
So based on these FACTUAL REALITIES , then establishing (and betting) that the trend is uni-directional (uptrend at that), then collect most common price model structures from the past, and just throw it out there and form a 'forecast'.
The trap here (that I see, for me anyway) is it may induce/develop trust in that forward painted 'future' and brainwash me and make me bet on those forms and stick with them through wrong bets.
So then a smaller on the money as we go model has to be implemented to avoid that trap. Something like OEPM or say following hourly BB to manage while expecting market river to continue to flow upwards.
But nevertheless as I said, I was intrigued of the far ahead forecast even though I don't use it nor I have time to attempt playing with such things.
OEPM stands out, I know it personally, and makes sense too.
But I do not look at it as a forecast. I look at it as a step by step if-then, similarly to a moving average, with the major difference that this can be quantified whereas moving averages is a following momentum thing.
On other fake news I think I saw that puddy cat (EOD strong drop) yesterday morning before I went to work.
That was exhilarating.
IMO the reason for today new-found strength is to maintain the effort to violate on a weekly basis November 09.
But why the effort ? THAT I do not know - interesting question though.
Don't be hard on yourself. Be your friend.
You are like me and like the next guy.
We are being played masterfully. I think they did it scientifically - it is much easier nowadays.
All they had to do is collect data and extract models.
Very simple (for them) to do it.
Make a move - extract data of participants' reaction.
Make another move - collect that data too.
And so on.
After a while a combined picture emerges.
The next step is to provoke moves that makes us traders (HUMANS!) feel stupid and then take our money.
I have one of the files about myself. I don't put often things in it. No time, otherwise I would. So I try to map myself. For example, market gaps up 2% , so I ask myself "what do I feel?" "What do I feel like doing?" "What I felt day before?" and so on.
You can say/answer like "I feel like crying, envious, angry, happy -- because ..."..
Then later on read (and re-read) your comments vs what the market did and what you did, and how you felt, and you can discover a side of you.
It's almost like a trading journal but emphasis is on emotions vs market situation at the time, so more like an emotions of trading journal.
I like it, seems to add to my efforts.
One of the things I loved lots was a small map/chart I extracted about myself that reveals my patience "charted". I also added what I experience similarly in games.
Then what do you know, it can be used back in both in trading and in games.
Like anything else is NOT 100% chart/indicator but far from being zero - after all , it's derived from my own persona, so it must be real, and is.
It's worth the effort in my opinion, for me it does.
Diluting implies benchmark by default of the idea, So that one is down automatically. You just have to find the right reference to look at (imo Gold and RE and purchasing power of employees among others, not just ONE thing but a basket)
As for time - well, if I dilute your desperately needed life saving medicine slowly you will go down surely but a bit slower than if i dilute it fast.
So the end effect is still unchanged by the time speed of dilution.
is dilution IS relevant regardless of time taken.
Now in our case it is a ... FAST and getting FASTER and FASTER pace of dilution. We deal with politics and numbers put in front of us that we frankly struggle to even comprehend that's how monstrosity of numbers of dilution they are..
My post the other day about "islands" explains conceptually why the patient is still alive for now (American economy and life).
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=159792873
-----
- "Does current levels scary" - Nothing to get impressed let alone getting scared of. Comparing fiat vs fiat is moot point, all in the same diluting boat, all fkd, it's like comparing passengers on Titanic , saying the upper deck are much better off remaining on Titanic as they are 50 feet higher than next lower deck. It's ridiculous and preposterous. Only a abandonment of the Titanic will save life.
-----
- By definition Gold should obey TA like everything else manipulation or not. NOT different TA. And it does follow!
speaking of killing the momentum
SPY moved in last TWENTY-ONE DAYS what it moved prior to that in just mere ... 2 days...
Momo is dead, and so is the lucrative volatility (that they try to sell)
(Premiums) Meat almost gone from the bone, just some leftover scraps left.
So consequently I assume the crowd now is on the fence and popcorn sales are up...
I know you are right (unfortunately) , you didn't need proving anything.
I mean, they OPENLY (and shamelessly) admit now of diluting the dollar with no stops in sight.
One day they will lose control and the Gold will explode to the upside vertically.
No, I won't be happy as I know what it means and how bad things will be.
The only escape will be a "sugar-daddy" country(/es), but I just can't see who could possibly want to and be able to at the same time.
I think it's a fair request.
Who cares what if any local BS laws is violating.
House rules for all not just some!!!
I'm surprised it went on for so long WITHOUT compliance - this is actually a stinky point and blame on us not them.
it's All politics and fake news for the masses
That study is not finished. Only the surface was scratched.
YOU can compile data and program (this all is actual elbow grease work).
I have restarted myself, pure coincidental as I don't miss these people a bit, although TT was a respectful member.
I finished compiling data for all 2020.
Unfortunately I can not find my previous work (file/s), so I have to rely on my memory and that's bits, good bits but bits.
On first glance some of my former beliefs were dismissed in current environment. I'm thinking because the quite big discrepancy in prices (much higher now).
I worked based on this suspicion and I have some nice results.
Unfortunately at this time I did not (re)crack the forecasting side of this scheme, but instead I am limited to few potentially good if-thens.
If anything it is an interesting work, it completes and complements the chart in a way - if you have the time to take to study it's worth it. I have very little time. I hardly find time to sleep. maybe one day a week I sleep 7 hours, and 8 hours is a rarity, usually 3-5 hours.
Just no time, plus plus plus life.
Nothing comes easy, not to me.
I have never used any of NN work to lose or win, so personally I have nothing to miss to be honest. I don't think anyone made any money (maybe lost) using anything there , so any wins were mere coincidental as I never saw a person stating every other day "I made X $$$ with (whatever) "this". TT neither, but on the other hand it is something intriguing about TT take and I will look at it when I will have the time.
I did use few pointers from other posters, from some people here and from other boards (one in particular is a struggle with a chart with a common and canned indicator, but I can NOT get the same chart, which is borderline crazy thing to witness), but I had to modify and sometimes severely modify concepts I like, but the ideas were first of all very few, less than finger, and promising if I spent more than an hour on it.
There are some smart people on board that are good chartists and traders. But the participation is extremely modest.
Life is more and more clear as we age and become both more knowledgeable and more wise.
I find that in charting and trading is similar.
Thanks for your posts
Perseverance71, I don't understand how there could be another format on this site. I have yet to see one.
I could NOT find any other format around this site.
Maybe you can post a link with another board using that other format you are talking about so we can understand?
Thanks
Quote: "non stock specific boards use a different format which is less suitable for this board"
Gold is in strong seasonality and is manipulated to nothing but trending down and more down...
Oil is in weak seasonality, and is manipulated to trades up and more up (even though the real economy actually NEEDS DESPERATELY a relief of Oil price, so they don't care about that either)
Something always gives.
Bad decisions always are paid..
what ticker you're looking at?
Vandal and others may only answer partially. Good to phenomenal question, but the answer is nearly impossible for regular people to answer not to mention is a long to super-long answer.
It has to do squarely with the reserve status. If any one thing threatening big time the US then this is it the hanging dagger of losing reserve status
The Gold vs dollar mystery is at the core. Gold is the only real dethroning threat. It is then no wonder that a lot of manipulation effort goes into it. Even so, as Vandal pointed, Gold still outperformed SPY ... AND the rest of the market. Not on a minute by minute but by overall.
This is a thing I was always asking myself how can be.
Then one day I took few memorable inflation incidents and compared them to one another, then the US dollar story.
Then it became clear the why.
But the how and when (mechanics of collapse) I can not answer as I don't have access to the data to work with. Also my education is not that high in this regard but I think I can manage decently which is fine by me, not need to be precise.
As a pointer in right direction for anyone interested:
I came up with one good story/example. I had to make it very simple to see the trees.
Few islands, with own dollar system, each with 100 people, and 100 dollars, 1 apple costs 1 apple-dollar, each had production of 100 fruits. The island nr1 that made apples printed 100 more of their apple-dollars. By nature the cost of apples will double, They can not use that printed apple-dollars and expect other island to give them entire production of say oranges for mere papers, UNLESS they can buy back the entire production of apples.
So essentially the value of the float of apple-dollars will have no choice but be correlated to production of apples.
Only two things can happen. The apple-island makes more apples therefore CAN have more apple-dollars, OR, fools the orange-island into believing that the (naked short) paper apple-dollars WILL be accepted bu other islands, so even though you can NOT buy 100 apples from us (because our dollars are phony BS), but you CAN buy other fruits from other islands, so there, there IS value in our apple-dollars.
Production did not rise (in fact diminished severely). If the other "islands" (countries) start refusing holding USD , then the apple-island will have no alternative but live withing their means of production of 100 apples or whatever.
Gold in this story is a spectacular BOTH -> a "fruit" itself, AND a means of exchange (dollar).
So the apple-island prints apple-dollars and uses part of that to sell fictitious oranges (gold) as to mask the scheme. As nothing is perfect, islands come to collect oranges (gold) so by dragging and kicking the price of oranges are going up.
At some golden point it will be a stampede of both -> orange claimers (with orange contracts in their hands) , and apple-dollars sellers to get different fruit-dollars.
The apple-island will have no saving alternative to go to.
So far there have been no country (fruit-island) in history engaged in fruit-dollar printing and living a high life on backs of other fruit-islands.
USA is the first and very likely the last too.
This continues, but this is sufficient to picture the situation.
Data needed will be something like real-time dollar deposits per country.
Real time merchandises exports per country.
How much dollars (and credits) in circulation in USA (and per each of other countries).
Real time goods and services per country.
And yes, similar for other countries, or at least the important ones (i.e. japan, China, Germany, Saudi(because Oil) and so on).
This all needs to be mapped, charted, then the picture will be pretty clear.
I am pretty sure the high positioned people do have something like this to watch out for... and dance this USD musical chairs situation.
We the people will be the very very VERY last ones to know.
Thanks for the clarifications perseverance
Although I don't understand how there could even be another format on this site.
Maybe you can post a link with another board having that other format so I can understand.
Thanks
Obviously we are all wrong and only one person decides for us