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FB call volume is very brisk from 79 to 83 strikes in the Jan30 weeklies. Put volume lags a good bit. Needless to say but the Feb 80 calls are very busy with over 10k contracts traded. Call volume looks to be topping put volume across all expirations. If FB does a YHOO then there are going to be a lot of unhappy call buyers after they get violated by IV bleed. I think that FB would need an AAPL like beat to get above 80 and hold. That seems like long odds to me.
YHOO calls revist. As expected IV bleed did the damage. Feb 50 calls bought for 2.33 are now trading for 1.55 and YHOO is up 1.86. Lesson is don't buy calls going into earnings when IV is elevated. Sell premium instead or just wait and pick some calls cheaper if you believe in the story.
Thank AAPL for saving the day. This market was heading down and needed a save. It is temporary.
I am not too familiar with WDC. I am not sure how it trades after hours. Some issues don't trade any volume and as such the spreads blow out. Those after hour numbers can be ignored in that case. Other stocks see decent after hours volume and as such better pricing. I think a remember an option seller poo pooing WDC for not enough premium. They were looking at selling puts on the gap down the other day. They didn't seem interested in buying calls. Said to look elsewhere. That said there does seem to be support at the 200 dma. Might be a long trade there depending on what the grail averages say. The 50 and the 20 dma are kind of saying maybe not so much.
AAPL saves the day...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102372969
YHOO options done for the day. See what shakes out tomorrow. Watch IV fade. Look for action further out as weeklies should calm down I think.
After hours somewhat muted. Up 7% to around 51. That's not good enough for profit on the Feb 50 calls with the expected IV fade. Want to see more... up.
YHOO... Post away. They are more likely to pay attention to you as you are a frequent poster there.
YHOO is looking a bit dodgy here. There does not seem to be a lot of confidence going into earnings, but you might not know by the call volume in the Jan30 calls. Over 21,100 calls traded at the 55 strike and that is not the only strike seeing big call volume. The 52 jan30 calls are over 19,000 contracts traded and amazingly the 57 strike is seeing over 18,000 calls traded. Put volume in the Jan30 weeklies is much lighter across all strikes. Looks to be some gambling going on.
The Feb contracts are not as hot and heavy as the Jan30 weeklies. The busiest strikes are 45 for the puts and 55 for the calls with over 11k and 13k contracts traded respectively. At this point YHOO is a big crap shoot.
YHOO - Options are not that bearish either. My guess is that there is some nervousness over earnings and the weekly puts are for protection. Since they fall in the range of 46 to 50 with an expiration on Friday how bearish can they be? Longer term through March, call options are seeing the biggest volume, so that leans bull. The bottom line is don't hold too big of a position over earnings and there should be no worries.
YHOO - Selling the strangle is not a bad idea to take advantage of the inflated IV, but most would need to own the stock as the calls would be naked otherwise. The puts are naked too, but don't require as high of trading privileges as required for the naked calls. Another choice would be to sell some put spreads or just naked puts if not afraid to acquire some stock on a big disappointment.
I bought some Feb 50 calls for the paper account for 2.33. Currently down a bit. Let's see what IV decay does to these calls barring a price explosion over 52.33. Volume on these calls is 3849 so the action is hot and heavy.
Monday I should buy some YHOO calls one strike out for my paper account just for a learning moment. I don't often track options over earnings, because I usually don't play earnings. I have bad enough luck as it is, no need to push the envelope. We could do this for some other earnings plays as well. Wouldn't it be great if everything was NFLX. IV's be damned, this thing is going to the moon. Lunacy.
By the way, I was out riding my bicycle doing a package delivery and I thought I saw a unicorn. Must have been a lack of O2 not to be confused with Fed monetary fantasy.
YHOO IV's will drop immediately after earnings. IV's always elevate into earnings and fall immediately after. Have to get a good move to be able to profit on long calls. If you are good and bullish, you could try a combo play where you sell a put to pay for the call. That will take care of the high IV. If YHOO falls on earnings, then you lose on both the short put and the long call. That's the bad, but if you are right you get a little additional boost off of the short put and the long call is money. A call back spread is another possibility. Sell one ITM call and buy two OTM calls for unlimited gain potential with limited risk. Bada bing.
YHOO Feb calls? Not with the elevated IV's. I'm not saying it can't work, just that the odds don't favor it. Now watch YHOO explode. lol.
YHOO - I posted a response on the YHOO board...
YHOO is seeing huge put volume in the weekly Jan30 put 46 strike with 19,999 contracts traded. There is also big volume in the weekly Jan30 put at the 48.5 strike with 9916 contracts traded. These puts expire in 7 days. The heaviest call volume for the Jan30 weeklies is at the 51 strike with 3512 contracts traded. How much of the put volume is for insurance is not known, but I speculate a lot of it is.
Further out, the action is more pedestrian. The heaviest call volume in the Feb calls is at the 50 strike with 4021 contracts traded. For the Feb puts the 46.5 strike has the most action with 1069 contracts.
The heaviest call volume in the March contracts is at the 55 strike with 3322 contracts traded. Put volume in the March contracts is low.
It is hard to keep up with the action in YHOO, especially in the weeklies expiring in 7 days.
Short term, options lean bearish for YHOO through earnings pinning the range between 46 and 50. Longer term through March, options are bullish. My guess is any earnings dip might be a good time to add if you believe in the YHOO story. I would avoid buying puts or calls right now as IV's are elevated going into earnings. Buying calls on an earnings dip would be a play to consider as IV's are bound to deflate a bit once earnings is past. Selling some OTM puts today could also work. Get some of that fat IV premium before earnings.
On a side note, I noticed FB wasn't seeing the heavy put action in the weeklies. It is seeing more call volume instead. I guess there is less worry over FB going into earnings.
YHOO is seeing huge put volume in the weekly Jan30 put 46 strike with 19,999 contracts traded. There is also big volume in the weekly Jan30 put at the 48.5 strike with 9916 contracts traded. These puts expire in 7 days. The heaviest call volume for the Jan30 weeklies is at the 51 strike with 3512 contracts traded. How much of the put volume is for insurance is not known, but I speculate a lot of it is.
Further out, the action is more pedestrian. The heaviest call volume in the Feb calls is at the 50 strike with 4021 contracts traded. For the Feb puts the 46.5 strike has the most action with 1069 contracts.
The heaviest call volume in the March contracts is at the 55 strike with 3322 contracts traded. Put volume in the March contracts is low.
It is hard to keep up with the action in YHOO, especially in the weeklies expiring in 7 days.
Eurofarce QE. This idiot believes it is already working. I can't make this shart up.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lagarde-european-qe-already-working-102203720.html
Believing in Eurofarce QE is like looking for one of these...
The Eurofarce QE rally is now in full swing. Euros will soon find out QE is only good for inflating equities and not much else. Crooks are crapping themselves with extreme joy, because without the Eurofarce QE, the market was going much lower. For now, let the buying hysteria begin. Rising ADX indicates the hysteria is growing.
HPJ been getting ridden hard by the shorts. Starting to shows signs of a turn on the daily. Could be the hard ride is done? Lots of chatter on stocktwats about energy storage initiative in Japan. Sharp is also launching energy storage solutions. HPJ is a supplier to Sharp. I think it is OK to add HPJ here, but it is early and the shorts may still need to be beaten into submission.
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/japan-pumps-cash-into-energy-storage
http://cleantechnica.com/2014/08/14/sharp-launches-smart-energy-storage-buildings/
Falling wedgie on light volume. Don't be short...
Algos decided to turn 1990. Once the algos turned 1990, there was no looking back, but 1990 is no more important than 2000 until the algos say otherwise. This volatility isn't about nervous investors, it's about HFT crook super banks and their algos. As such, there is no market except what the algos allow. They set the range and that is what you have to work with to scrape some coin out of this mess. Are the Eurocrooks going to QE next week? I don't know and I can't tell from today's price action. In the end it was just another volatile day that answered no questions. If 1990 was oversold, then is 2020 overbought? Why didn't VIX drop more? Will the earth spin into the sun? Find out next week.
Lots of damage being done by SNB currency move. How much selling is occurring in equities to fix serious damage elsewhere? Very uncertain market now. Fed is out to lunch. All rallies are suspect which is being reflected in VIX.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/swiss-shock-victim-forex-broker-101748519.html
JPM crooks won't be happy with this...
It seems there are some dip buyers lurking around 1990. Is it enough to get the algos to flip? Meanwhile 60 min ADX is rising so the bounce remains questionable. If the algos flip that could all change faster than a bankster can relieve you of your assets. Just ask Putin how that works.
Some commentary...
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2015/01/14/we-are-100-screwed/
BAS needs to start rising first to become a rising steamer trade. I am interested in a small flyer. There are better candidates though.
NE is very interesting. Recently upgraded by RBC Capital noting that NE has long term contracts in place for their rigs that will provide good free cash flow for 2015. Still has near 10% dividend that is not expected to be cut. This one could be money, but the bears haven't stopped feasting yet.
BAS... Don't hit that lever just yet. This steamer is definitely not rising, but what "drill baby drill" outfit is? Here's some commentary for consideration. I will be watching you BAS. I will be watching.
http://ibankcoin.com/mr_cain_thaler/2015/01/12/bas-keeps-the-lights-on/
Searching for the rising steamer trade. Only the finest steamers get to occupy the top of the punch bowl. Is AFOP it? Up on a dare I say weak tape. Pressing the top of a breakdown range. Is AFOP back? Does it deserve a coveted position at the top of the punch bowl? Oh but that 200 dma looms overhead. Get above that and own, no dominate the punch bowl. Earnings arrive 2/4 and volume is not strong with AFOP so apply caution. That which rises can also sink.
Crack! That was the sound of the bulls back breaking. The HFT crooks are pressing the downside. They want the weak bulls to cough up their shares cheap. They want fear. They want carnage. Investors have fear. Algos don't. They will sweep in and scoop up the bargains, then as fast as you can evacuate a Taco Bell happy happy joy joy meal, the HFT crooks will send the market careening the other way. Just at what level? At what level? What level?
ADX didn't lie.
5 min HFT crook psycho yoyo chew toy...
Rising ADX on the 60 min is troubling for any bulls. Indicates strengthening downtrend. 1990 could easily get tested. 1980 is now not out of the question. Amazing how the euphoria during the farcical Santa rally has turned to such doom and gloom when absolutely nothing has changed. It is all orchestrated by the crook bastards and their HFT fraud boxes. Throw out some contrived sound bite and let the algos take it from there.
Crooks. Crooks. Crooks.
YELP trying to breakout of a volatility squeeze. Might be a little room for a swing long to the 60 area. Feb calls are reasonably lively. There is big open interest at the 62.5 strike, but too far OTM for Feb IMHO. If playing Feb, stay ATM. Use May if want OTM or look elsewhere if wanting a meatier trade.
Where's the beef?
After the morning bear raid by the algos, 5 min yoyo can't pick a direction. Crooks are waiting to spring the next trap. I don't see enough meat on the bone for a daytrade with options. Too much slippage both in and out. e-minis would be the vehicle of choice for daytrade, but I don't have futures account so I'm out. I lean towards a swing long trade on the Q's with Feb calls into next week, but so far no trigger for entry. Last half hour should give a clue. Probably just sit on my hands and watch biotechs going parabolic. KITE for example. Not in it as it is extremely extended on news and hype. Definitely not on profits. It has none.
Yoyo spinning in space...