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AAPL-I understand, you could very well be right but IMO I think the lower gap is more likely. Just not liking the - divergences and at the moment this has a target closer to $116 than $120. Now with that being said it's really irrelevant if you're holding long term like many of us are. As I said last night I'm not suggesting a sell here just trying to point out how the correction may finish because this is only a 4th wave retrace meaning new highs should follow this low no matter where it finishes.
APPL- This is a perfect chart to explain a basic EW concept that I use.
1. If you look at the RED 1-2-3-4-5 you'll notice that it completes the BLUE Wave 3.
2. If you look at the RED A-B-C you'll notice it completes the BLUE Wave 4.
3. Many times 4th wave retrace back to the area of the 4th wave of one lesser degree. In this case that right around $119-$104. You can narrow that range once you have enough of the correction printed to measure and project. However my point for posting this is just to show hoe you can use the 4th wave of one lesser degree as a quick reference.
Tell me more Mike, are you saying a $120 entry could be a short term long?
Very good Rose, I know you play this often. If you have any questions at all please don't hesitate to ask.
SPX, this has been a very complicated pattern to try a call correctly but it appears it's starting to take a more traditional trajectory. I'm not going to get going on volitility because just like this pattern it's not as easy as it appears. TVIX and UVXY have performed terribly since inception but once you understand they performed exactly the way they should have I'm hoping some of you guys will see past what was and see what can be. You don't hear me say this much but when it comes to charts and volatility any older than a few months really isn't that important. All I can say is that I'm thinking SPX is very close to putting in a local top and we're pending a major correction before we see new highs. I'll be posting on my TVIX, UVXY, and CVOL positions as we approach the next top.
Man I hope ES is finally going to finish this last leg up.
I understand, just trying to point out the positive aspects of the chart. That's what I like about a lot of the plays we make together. It seems you're more interested in the fundamental aspects and as you know I'm more of a technical player. Anytime you get a fundamentally sound small cap that has a bullish technical set-up the combination can be very profitable. As always, good luck.
This is the chart I use to generate buy and sell signals for long term investments. The 10 and 40 week time frames are what many professional funds use and at the moment INUV is nowhere near a sell signal.
I tell ya it doesn't seem nearly as long as it's been and you're right, being consistently profitable as a trader is not easy on any level. I used to work a day job on top of trying to trade and it next to impossible.
You're welcome, I'm a little hard headed at times but it's crystal clear what needs to take place.
I posted this chart last night and got a few questions for CBeeson. I hope I understand what he's asking because I promised to reply. Now I want to answer his questions but I think the best way to go about this is from a general approach first.
Questions
1. How do we know 4 is done upward and not going to r1?
2. How do we know 4 is not actually (1), where it dips to $54 range for (2), before going up to (3) at r1 high 60's
AAPL-Anyone still in this?
Thank you my friend, I'm keeping it close to the chest for now because I still can't believe it myself. Once everything is official I'll spill the beans$$$. For now it's business as usual but I really need to concentrate on commodities and getting my 1 year charts as dialed in as possible.
You're right, I don't like to use the leveraged EFT charts for entries or exits but at the moment DWTI is targeting $103.
That's what we need to work on, If we're have trouble communicating the last thing I want to do is compound it by trying to make both long and short term calls without clarity. You know how some of these folks can be and if you make a call it better go straight up or straight down. The concept of retracements along the way sometimes get's lost in translation. However it's part of doing business and we have to figure out a way to make this work or I simply can't continue to try and make everyone happy. The whole reason I do what I do is the try and help traders out not confuse them even more, if you know what I'm saying, no worries, we'll figure it out.
LOL, tell us how you really feel......Maybe we can change your mind.
Going to be working this weekend trying to get ready for next week. I'll be posting both long and short term target for Oil, Nat Gas, Gold, and Silver. We'll start with those and add to the list as we go. It's very important to me that you guys understand the difference but I'm not sure it's going to be that easy. I really need you guys to provide feedback so I know what needs to be done in order to make what we do easier to follow. I hope everyone had a great week, enjoy your weekend and we'll see you on Monday.
I applied to be a mod on the DWTI board so I can add some charts to the ibox.
It's $2.70 now IMO. Once we hit our higher here between $2.90-$2.95 I'll be looking for a retrace to $2.70 followed by a move higher which I'll cover once we get close to finishing the retrace.
This move from OIL was not unexpected, I thought we were waiting for this bounce, am I confused?
NG came up just short of my $2.90-$2.95 target area today. I'm thinking we still have OMH before the start of the wave 2 retrace but downside is starting to look more attractive than upside "short term". I believe that once we strike my target we'll see a wave 2 retrace followed by a wave 3 moon short. All just my opinion of course. Good Luck.
I received some excellent news today and I'm putting this out there because I have a feeling it's going to have an impact on how I conduct my trading. I need to start looking at my commodity trades from a longer term perspective but I'm not sure how I'm going to manage this shift just yet. At the moment this will only effect commodities but if all goes well I'm hoping it'll incorporate all of the trades we make here on EST.
Thanks Wrinkles, UGAZ, XIV, DWTI, all worked well this week. Even NUGT turned out to be green but I'm certainly not happy with the return. No worries, it may be taking it's sweet azz time but I'm still u8nder the impression it's going much higher.
I've been staring at this chart ALL DAY and just can't stop the drooling. Do any of you guys follow futures? I guess a better question would be what do most traders here on the board use to track the price of oil?
First, not a long message at all and welcome back. It's been awhile and I'm thinking much has changed around here since the last time you posted. I enjoy intelligent dialog with anyone that has an agenda that reaches further than pumping or bashing the play at hand. Those are also great questions concerning my EW analysis and I'm not just saying that. Absolutely legitimate and fair without sounding like someone just trying to pick you apart because they have a differing opinion. It's late and your answers require a little work so I'll reply in the morning but I will reply. I'll also address your question on rig counts and oversupply because that's certainly a big part of what's going on.
Yeah, I still have 2,500 shares that I was planning on selling on a break of $2.12 but couldn't bring myself to put in the sell. I mean this has been a great play and I'm riding freebies so no pressure. I wouldn't even have considered holding if I didn't think the company had promise but IMO they're an investment grade small cap under $5 which is rare these days. That and the fact I made a mistake with my count and realised $1.80 was support and not $2.12 so still holding and actually plan on adding if it's holds $1.80. Now I've been over the chart 20 times since mislabeling the first go around and $1.80 is an absolute must hold IMO. If $1.80 holds $5 is a real possibility, all just my opinion of course