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Apparently completed "activation" of iPhone accounts on the AT&T network shows 600,000 active users.
http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/news.phtml/8504/9528/European-iPhone-one-million-sold.phtml
This is the last part of the article.
First part is at the URL below.
I am commencing to wonder if the iPhone will end up being quite a bigger hit than anyone has many clues about.
Photographic record
My roommates were more enthusiastic. I yelled, "iPhone!" and they came running. They waited patiently as I ceremoniously un-boxed the device, stopping to photograph each step.
Finally I let each of them test the iPhone. The unanimous reaction? "Wow, this is cool." Their fingers danced across the screen in wonder, just as mine had when I used the demonstration unit in the AT&T store an hour earlier.
The real power of the iPhone evolved over the weekend, as I used it in everyday situations. During lunch in Old City on Saturday, my roommate and I were discussing how Philadelphia is now the sixth-most populated city in the country. I wondered what the top cities in the world were, so I pulled out my iPhone and did a quick Google search. In a few seconds we had the list.
On Sunday, I felt like grabbing a snack-wrap for lunch. Since I wasn't sure which restaurant was closest, I searched for McDonald's in the Google Maps application and quickly found 10 locations, each entry complete with addresses and phone numbers.
The phone made a huge impact on my Facebook page as well. I quickly updated my profile with a picture of myself holding the phone, and soon after, I received a dozen or so inquisitive and congratulatory messages.
So, after my first weekend with my iPhone, was it worth the months of obsession? Yes! The screen is gorgeous, every detail seems like it was created after thoughtful consideration, and the touch interface is quick and responsive. It is unlike any phone, music player, or other portable device I have ever used - think of it as a mini laptop with a clean and simple touchscreen interface instead of a keyboard and mouse.
Plus, I have the entire season of The Office in my pocket. Pretty satisfying.
Nick Basham, 22, is an intern in the Philadelphia Inquirer's graphics department. He recently graduated from Ball State University in Muncie, Ind.
http://www.philly.com/philly/entertainment/20070703_iPhone_rocks_.html
Chas - thank you
AAPL and associated calls were up a little bit when I left for work. Overall portfolio up over 10% now. Holy crap Batman.
More red dots indicating no stock of iPhones on Apple's retail store list.
Marketwatch has a video segment of Gene Munster talking about the launch weekend here
http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid=%7B3E489EB9-C004-4494-B39F-96AEEA4E827A%7D
Explosive halo effect
Well now Tomm, that is that sleazy ChangeWave Research stuff and Lango has been telling us for years that they can't be trusted - and he knew that without detailed knowledge of their research methods, just cause Tobin Smith is a sleaze bag.
chasky, I think
It could go sideways to slightly down for a bit. I'm predicting that will last no longer than the earnings report on July 25- but I could be incorrect. I (and I think just about everyone else) expects to see good Mac numbers. iPod #'s may be a little soft, but iPhone should make up for that a bit - particularly if demand is good after this first wave of enthusiast buying is done.
We'll see :).
Those figures do not seem to include on-line store orders.
Not to mention, for the July, the fact that T will be ordering aggressively to re-stock (I would assume) all of their 1,800 locations.
Bloody good start
added Jan 2009 $150 calls @ 16.40. eom.
Posted Elsewhere, from briefing dot com. I added the emphasis at the end.
02-Jul-07 07:21 ET
Apple: Color on iPhone (122.04)
CIBC notes of those in the market for a PDA/Email device if the iPhone wasn't available (73%), 61% were considering a Blackberry. Mixed - on one hand, this suggests a growing brand awareness for RIMM and desire for better devices, yet on the other hand it shows the iPhone can take away from RIMM. Firm believes the average profile of Friday's "first wave" of purchasers (male, 20-40 year old, tech savvy) is likely to be different than that of future waves. Thus, their conclusions could very well change as the iPhone makes its way to mainstream and as the other carriers respond competitively... Credit Suisse believes omen will be the "upside surprise" demographic with the iPhone as
they growing increasingly comfortable with technology products owing to the success of the iPods. Firm notes that 30% were non-Cingular customers. They are told from their other checks that most non-Cingular customers went to the Apple stores. 25% had Blackberries/Treos. Every smartphone user firm spoke with has plans to keep both devices as their corporate email does not support iPhone.
Firm says the iPhone handset generates a gross margin of 40-46% before payments from AT&T are considered. If Apple receives a $100 to $150 payment over the life of the contract from AT&T, then the margin goes to 60-71%.
Notable Calls submits: We have several tier-1 firms out positive on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) this morning:
- Piper Jaffray spent Friday evening at Apple stores in New York,San Francisco, and Minneapolis, quantifying the iPhone launch. According to rough estimates they believe Apple sold 500k units over the weekend, which would provide upside to their estimate of 200k units in the June quarter. Overall, Apple met strong demand over the weekend with adequate supply. PJ was surprised by the rate at which Apple was able to sell the handsets, with 50 cashiers processing up to 1,000 iPhones/hour in some stores. Also, the setup process involved some hiccups, but the touchscreen, keyboard and battery life are better than they expected. Maintains Outperform and $160 tgt.
- Goldman Sachs notes Apple's iPhone launch, which started on Friday, blew through expectations that have been climbing since January when the product was announced and provides another example of Apple's ability to bring dramatic change to an industry. They now think that Apple unit sales over the weekend were at least double their prior 350,000 estimate (Apple's June quarter ended Saturday so Sunday's sales will show up in September quarter results) and they have increased their iPhone forecast to 5.25M for calendar 2007 and 12M for 2008, up from 4M and 10.5M, respectively. 2007 and 2008 EPS estimates go to $3.58 and $4.30 from $3.52 and $4.08 - still with the bias firmly to the upside.
GSCO is leaving their price target at $135 but they think all of Apple's key products - especially iPhone and Mac - have an opportunity to show upside over the next couple of quarters, keeping the stock firmly moving ahead.
- Morgan Stanley says they have strong conviction in their higher earnings forecast relative to consensus and continue to view Apple as a top pick in their group. While the success of Apple's iPhone won't be determined anytime soon, the successful launch over the weekend is indicative of their positive thesis. Perhaps the most important takeaway from initial research is Apple's ability to drive customer traffic, and therefore margin leverage, in its retail stores. If sustainable, they view their bull case of $7 C08 EPS and $225 stock price as more likely.
Notablecalls: I think AAPL will dictate the overall sentiment over the next couple of days or even more. If AAPL gets sold on this positive gaga, it won't be because of activation issues. This will send a clear message to the market we are headed towards lower levels.
http://ce.seekingalpha.com/article/39902
Notable Calls submits: We have several tier-1 firms out positive on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) this morning:
- Piper Jaffray spent Friday evening at Apple stores in New York,San Francisco, and Minneapolis, quantifying the iPhone launch. According to rough estimates they believe Apple sold 500k units over the weekend, which would provide upside to their estimate of 200k units in the June quarter. Overall, Apple met strong demand over the weekend with adequate supply. PJ was surprised by the rate at which Apple was able to sell the handsets, with 50 cashiers processing up to 1,000 iPhones/hour in some stores. Also, the setup process involved some hiccups, but the touchscreen, keyboard and battery life are better than they expected. Maintains Outperform and $160 tgt.
- Goldman Sachs notes Apple's iPhone launch, which started on Friday, blew through expectations that have been climbing since January when the product was announced and provides another example of Apple's ability to bring dramatic change to an industry. They now think that Apple unit sales over the weekend were at least double their prior 350,000 estimate (Apple's June quarter ended Saturday so Sunday's sales will show up in September quarter results) and they have increased their iPhone forecast to 5.25M for calendar 2007 and 12M for 2008, up from 4M and 10.5M, respectively. 2007 and 2008 EPS estimates go to $3.58 and $4.30 from $3.52 and $4.08 - still with the bias firmly to the upside.
GSCO is leaving their price target at $135 but they think all of Apple's key products - especially iPhone and Mac - have an opportunity to show upside over the next couple of quarters, keeping the stock firmly moving ahead.
- Morgan Stanley says they have strong conviction in their higher earnings forecast relative to consensus and continue to view Apple as a top pick in their group. While the success of Apple's iPhone won't be determined anytime soon, the successful launch over the weekend is indicative of their positive thesis. Perhaps the most important takeaway from initial research is Apple's ability to drive customer traffic, and therefore margin leverage, in its retail stores. If sustainable, they view their bull case of $7 C08 EPS and $225 stock price as more likely.
Notablecalls: I think AAPL will dictate the overall sentiment over the next couple of days or even more. If AAPL gets sold on this positive gaga, it won't be because of activation issues. This will send a clear message to the market we are headed towards lower levels.
http://ce.seekingalpha.com/article/39902
Sylvester, seems to have been mostly negative so far - that may not be fair and is not intended as an attack just a comment. EOM.
WSJ article says 2% of purchasers had activation problems.
Some iPhones Are Stuck on Hold
By AMOL SHARMA and NICK WINGFIELD
July 2, 2007
AT&T Inc. said it was working to resolve problems preventing some buyers of Apple Inc.'s iPhone from activating the device, illustrating the complexities Apple faces in working with a partner and in offering a consumer product that plugs into a cellular network.
The hiccup for one of the most eagerly awaited electronics products in years affected about 2% of those who purchased an iPhone, according to a person familiar with the situation. Phone activation also activates the iPhone's other features, such as playing music or movies and Web surfing.
posted on AAPL board in another investor site
Universal
HaHaHa HoHoHo HeHeHE
Listen there Mr. Third Largest Music Retailer(Apple)
We're not going to sell our music through you anymore.
Yeah, right.
Never mind
Activation problems
AT&T attributed the problems to overloaded servers as large number of customers tried to activate their phones over the weekend. After being hit with the initial onslaught, AT&T made technical adjustments to its activation system so that new users wouldn't face the same delays, Coe said.
Customers with corporate accounts might also experience delays because AT&T needs authorization from the telecommunications manager at their company to switch them to an individual account, he said.
Large numbers. Onslaught. I like what those words imply about iPhone sales.
EDGE speed, sylvester80
Are you reporting on your experience with your personal iPhone?
Keeping it on edge
We do not have wireless available in my office- it is in many public areas of the college, but not where I am.
I walked over to the Apple store again yesterday, to do another session with the iPhone.
I am going definitely going to purchase one.
1-To be completely honest - I think that having an internet device that leaves no footprint on work IT systems is a good idea :). While the college has been real loose about some level of personal web-surfing - I have also been a bit uncomfortable about my occasional excursions to travel sites, stock sites, my brokerage house's website etc....are available to my employer should they ever have an interest in it. Transactional stuff - I have not done there hardly ever.
There are a cast of other reasons, including just because I want one.
So, the iPhone is in my not too distant future.
Have many of you made a purchase decision?
Bloomberg story on first day sales-200k estimate for Friday
Apple's IPhone Sells Out at Most AT&T Stores, Swamping Network
By Connie Guglielmo
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc.'s U.S. debut of the iPhone drew thousands of shoppers over the weekend, emptying most of AT&T Inc.'s inventory and causing network glitches as the flood of customers began activating the device.
Shoppers snapped up as many as 200,000 iPhones the first day after the device went on sale June 29, according to Global Equities Research. While it was still available at all 164 Apple stores yesterday, AT&T said most of its 1,800 stores no longer had the phone in stock. AT&T is the only mobile-phone service that works with the iPhone.
``A lot of our stores have sold out,'' said Mark Siegel, a spokesman for San Antonio-based AT&T, the largest U.S. wireless service. ``We're restoring our inventory as fast as we can.''
The sales met the expectations of most analysts, giving Apple a foothold in the mobile-phone industry. Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs is counting on the device to become Apple's third major source of revenue, alongside the iPod media player and the Macintosh computer. The iPhone combines a Web-surfing phone with the iPod.
Some buyers had problems activating the phones because of the large number signing up at the same time, Siegel said. There also were delays switching customers from other carriers.
Wozniak's Test
``Some of my friends are having activation difficulties,'' Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, who got in line at 4 a.m. on June 29 to buy his iPhone, said in an e-mail interview.
He successfully activated his phone and said he's impressed with the software and how the device serves up Web pages. ``I was going to only use the iPhone as a test phone at first, but I'm ready now to make it my primary number,'' Wozniak said.
Apple stores sold an estimated 128,000 iPhones on the first day, while AT&T stores sold 72,000, said Trip Chowdhry, an analyst with San Francisco-based Global Equities.
The stores stayed open until midnight June 29. Customers could buy one phone at AT&T's stores and two at Apple's outlets. Shoppers can check Apple's Web site to see if the iPhone is in stock at any of its stores.
There's a wait of two to four weeks for customers who order the phone online from Apple, according to the site.
The iPhone comes in two versions: a 4-gigabyte model that sells for $499 and an 8-gigabyte version that costs $599. The phone requires a two-year service contract with AT&T.
Shoppers interviewed at Apple's stores in New York and California favored the 8-gigabyte model.
``For $100 more, you get double the storage,'' said engineer Rick Evans, 50, who bought his iPhone on opening night at Apple's store in Stanford, California. ``It's a no-brainer.''
Miles Barken, a shopper in Santa Monica, California, bought the 4-gigabyte version after the other model sold out.
``I was having trouble deciding between the two of them anyway,'' he said. ``This just made the decision easier for me.''
EBay Sales
The iPhone is already selling at a premium on the auction site EBay Inc., despite it still being in stock at Apple's stores. The phone has sold on EBay for an average of $978.75, the company said.
Jobs said last week that Apple tried to estimate demand and increased manufacturing. ``We've taken our best guess, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if it ain't enough,'' Jobs said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.
Apple's investors are betting that Jobs, 52, can deliver on a pledge to capture a least 1 percent of the mobile-phone market by selling 10 million iPhones in 2008. Anticipation helped propel the company's market value above $100 billion in May for the first time.
The Cupertino, California, company's shares rose $1.48 to $122.04 on June 29 in Nasdaq Stock Market trading.
Apple's annual profit has surged to almost $2 billion from $65 million in the past five years, while sales more than tripled to about $20 billion.
To contact the reporter on this story: Connie Guglielmo in San Francisco at cguglielmo1@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=AAPL:US&sid=aUIjMF2e...
Blue, this from Blackfriar's Marketing.
Yeah, they seem to be big Apple fans, but even if you discount their minimum prediction by 25%, it would still go down as a successful weekend. No surprise to me - I am more interested in sales rates in August to be honest with you.
The bold in the quoted material was bold in the original.
On the other hand, Apple's decision to decouple phone activation from sales was a strategic move that, in hindsight, now appears to be genius incarnate. We clocked people walking out of Apple stores with new iPhones at rates of one to three a minute, which means anywhere from 50 to 200 phones are walking out of each of Apple's 162 stores each hour. Said another way, based upon what limited data we've been able to observe and get from others, we're looking at peak physical sales in Apple Stores on the order of 30,000 an hour. But even more surprising is the fact that Apple iPhone stocks seem to be holding up well. People reported last night that they could walk into Apple Stores at 9 pm and buy an iPhone with no line or wait whatsoever. It appears that Apple's bet big on manufacturing lots of phones.
Online Apple sales have suffered somewhat from overloaded servers; in fact both the online Apple Store and iTunes were down after 9 pm EDT as customers rushed to make purchases. Even so, we've heard data saying that online sales rates were also in the tens of thousands of sales per hour during the first few hours. Delivery times have been consistently reported at 2-4 weeks from the online store; that has not changed as of 9:45 am Sat. morning, but may change today as stocks become depleted over the weekend.
The bottom line: some analysts claimed that the iPhone launch would be a failure if Apple failed to sell 100,000 iPhones during the first weekend. Based upon the limited data we have, we believe that number was exceeded in just the first two to three hours. Blackfriars' prediction is that Apple will sell 500,000 iPhones this weekend, and based upon limited sales rates reported, that number now looks quite achievable. The only question is whether the demand and iPhone supply is great enough that they might push past the million unit mark this weekend.
I think the number is too low for Apple stores
I'd at least double it to 500 per Apple store, at a minimum - maybe closer to 1,000.
I don't know if we will ever know, but I suspect is closer to 250-325k retail sales.
I don't think Apple has enough paranoids coding at present.
You angling for a job?? *grin*
from another board
aapl austin store
no lines, but the store was packed.I talked to one of the sale guys and he was happy to give info. Friday they sold 490 units. I was there at 1:00 and they already sold 160 units. Expecting to sell 3-350 by end of the day.
Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet
Munster will pop the stock on Monday. Wait and see .
Gotta figure out how much it will cost
To get rid of Verizon, and then I'm going to get an iPhone.
Consulting services check arrived today , I sure do prefer that hourly rate to the salaryman rate, but I sure do like the benefits with the salaryman job.
Mossberg on the Charlie Rose show link
http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2007/06/29/1/a-discussion-about-apples-iphone
Well, you know me, I'm a bit more bullish than that.
A 2008 estimate of 4.25 could turn out to be way low. The current high estimate of 4.68 could end up being low. Five bucks for 09 is flat silly :).
My initial thinking for this year, if you recall my posts, was that I'd have opportunities to buy for a year-end trade this summer sometime, thinking that the run-up would start this late summer / fall. In late April I changed my mind, and have been pretty heavy AAPL shares and options beyond a core position since then.
I think the slope of this year's second half AAPL chart will end up looking a lot like that of CY 2004 and CY 2005. I have hedged my long positions with some puts - but after the earnings report in July, given its expected Macintosh good news - and also with news seeping out about iPhone sales (from AAPL and from T and others), I suspect the upward movement continues.
I could be all wet, but I think FY 2008 earnings are likely to be around $4.75-5.00 and FY 2009 will be well over $6.00 - well over.
I'm frankly hoping for a dip next week - I'd like to use those July puts for something other than insurance :).
This piece from Fortune is probably worth reading
How the iPhone will change computing
This is a computer, not a phone, says Fortune's David Kirkpatrick. Finally, we'll be able to surf the Web anywhere we want.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/29/magazines/fortune/iphone.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007062911
MacSlash has a first impressions thread.
This is from it:
I went to an AT&T store in Plano, Tx at 6:00pm, I was out of the door by 7:10. Everything transfered to the iPhone without a problem. I was typing with two thumbs within a few hours, I still make mistakes but I'm really getting used to it. Videos and photos look beautiful. I set the iPhone's Wi-Fi up with my Airport Express, so I haven't tested EDGE out yet. Bookmarks from Safari transfered over without any setup when it was done syncing. It grabbed my gmail account from Mail, and I was able to setup my Yahoo account too. I'll test Exchange on Monday. What I noticed while I was waiting in line was out of maybe a 100 people, their were probably 10-15 true "Geeks". The rest were Soccer Moms, Business Men and even a Biker. If that line was any representation of who is buying the iPhone, it's gonna be huge.
Yeah, my point was ... why not check out att.com/mywireless on your iPhone?
Okay, I thought since you bolded PC, it was the old Mac v. PC thing.
On my PC
I have two - a Wintel PC at work and a Mactel PC at home. The former runs Windows XP, the latter runs OS X on a G5.
language, go figure I refuse to yield the term personal computer to one flavor of personal computer.
Soon I will have another run, running OS X on my handheld computer aka the iPhone.
I went to the Bridgeport Village Store at about 7:30 pm. Waiting line was gone.
Played with an iPhone for about 20 minutes. I want one, but first I have to find out about early termination fees etc. As far as I am concerned, it was freaking magical.
Did some finger and thumb typing. Not too terrible, but it would take a few days to get good at it, I believe.
Did I say I am going to get one before too long.
Sonics???
Trailblazers are the team of the not too distant future
Thanks Tomm
I remember that little Ronnie Howard. Heard he really made something of himself :).
I am pleased with our fruit company. My opinion is that they are knocking this product intro outta da ballpark. Does not mean it is perfect, but I think it does show some lessons learned.
It will be interesting to see how the phone sells.
Oregonian newspaper blog on iPhone line waiters in Portland - photos, words :).
http://blog.oregonlive.com/siliconforest/
EDGE speeds, from another board with no link
AT&T upgrades edge network before iphone launch This will no doubt have the conspiracy theorists crawling out of every nook, cranny and hiding place possible. AT&T’s EDGE network is now running faster than ever right before the iPhone launch. It’s a good thing too because most of the complaints about the iPhone centered on the slow speed of the EDGE network.
Maybe it’s because AT&T has begun shutting down their analog AMPS and TDMA networks that they have extra bandwidth to spread around or maybe it’s because it wants new iPhone owners to have the best EDGE experience possible. Maybe it's a little bit of both or someone finally hit the "on" switch for the Fine EDGE network.
Anyone with an EDGE capable phone will see the speed increase, not just iPhone users. The speed increase is not available in all locations but major cities are certainly seeing much faster speeds, in some cases, upwards of 200Kbps. Discussions have begun on various forums; this information comes courtesy of the MacRumors Forum:
Based on data from HowardForums:
New York City: 184kb/s
Queens, NY: 186kb/s-230kb/s
Chicago suburbs: 160kb/s
S. Florida: 176kb/s-204kb/s
Washington DC: 196kb/s-207kb/s
Philly: 191kb/s-264kb/s
Marion, Indiana: 186kb/s-196kb/s
North Seattle: 190kb/s
Dallas: 160kb/s
Half hour north of Boston: 50kb/s
West of East Orange, New Jersey: 365kb/s
That’s just data from people willing to share the information. I’m sure other cities are seeing the speed increase as well. Go ahead, hop on the EDGE network and see if your area has received the upgrade. In this one case, it certainly pays to live in New Jersey.
AT&T store in commericial development at NW 185th and Evergreen Parkway had about 9 people in line - no idea what's going on at our three Apple Stores or the gazillions of other AT&T outlets in the metro area.
Bought some July 110 puts at the open to, you know....just in case. EOM.
Sometimes I ain't too smart
and can't figure out what you guys are talking bout
but, I can tell you this
2007 - Year of da Mac
2008 - Year of da Mac and da iPhone and da iTV and da who knows what
2009 - Year of roni's retirement
That is what I know.
Tomm, number like those in the Macintosh business, the ones I have seen in the Chronicle of Higher Education on the % of freshman at at least one college taking Macintosh computers to school, those are the numbers that have me long AAPL.
iPhone is icing on the cake. I think we're going to have a fall and winter like 2004. I was out for at least half of that run. I am in for this one :)