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Although it is tough to stomach, I really don't think that the technicals mean s#@t right now. 50 day/200 day/ascending wedge/pitching wedge, had the overall not crapped out in the last hour we would have had a nice up day. The politicians may not like the twist, but the US equities market eventually will like it.
The overall strengthens and cross your fingers that Rida clears, this stock should really take off by next summer.
It's a shame that Aria is firing on all cylinders at this awful time.
Excellent analysis, but in the future, please refer to the .85 OS by it's officially scientific name, "the Dew point". LOL Do you know if follow up data be available by AC?
Ahead by 3.5 games (vs TB) with 16.5 games to go is not such a bad place to be. However, the Red Sox have to get some key people back from injuries to have any chance to do damage in the postseason
Maven,
What the hell ever happened with the endometrial trial??
They announced positive results, did the financing THAT NIGHT, and that was the last we have heard of it.
Ok Mr. Diligence. Having said that, what's your opinion on Rida approval? Yay or nah?
BTW, are you a Saux fan? Cause the wheels are coming of that bus real fast.
Nevertheless, I've mentioned on the ARIA board before that I am nervous about its approval chances. I'm not excited about ridaforolimus' commercial potential for sarcoma either. Ponatinib is undoubtedly ARIA's crown jewel. For me, any success with ridaforolimus would be a bonus.
RE: Ariad from the BMO report
We are less optimistic regarding prospects for mTOR inhibitor
ridaforolimus in sarcoma and believe that SUCCEED phase 3
data, while positive, may not be sufficient for FDA approval.
We believe, however, that Merck's commitment to development
beyond sarcoma is signi? cant and should ultimately support approval beyond sarcoma.
Dew,
Would you (or anyone else) care to opine on the circumstances by which this Mrk guy has come to work for Ariad?
Would you believe that this was done under a friendly arrangement between Mrk and Ariad or do you think Ariad wooed him away? If the latter, why would Berger look to stick his finger in Mrk's eye at such a critical time for the company?
No Mrk buyout conspiracy theory here, just would like some feedback on the dynamic between the companies.
Never really filled that gap in the 5's
I am in the group that believes there is more to the story than just picking up another Merck employee on the open market
I think you should go over his resume on Linkedin again. 2 of those companies were bought out. His last 10 months were with Mrk. IMO, this is an excellent hire.
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/marty-j-duvall/6/73a/223
That's all? The way you have been posting I thought you bought at 13.49. Just chill out and let this crap clear out.
Fyi, most were bought in the $2's, but I have some margin shares in the low $8 range if that helps.
Sentiment will change again.
I'm guessing you mean 2012, correct?
No real reason to buy Ariad right this minute if you are a fund manager. Might as well wait to see how the macro plays out. Stocks look cheap today but could end up being 10-20% cheaper in a few days/weeks.
Just for laughs, if all continues to go well, when do you think the earliest Aria will be able to submit an NDA for Pona? Mid to end of 2012?
I'd say we definitely qualify. This last heart stomping has been a little tougher than the others only because of the amount of money this time around. This market sucks, but I believe patience will be rewarded here. I also pushed into a bunch of Dew's favorites in the last few weeks. I believe those moves will prove to be smart moves as well when I look back down the road.
Let's see if old Warren's favorite investing theme works out this time.
What is it that you agree with? My opinion of Ariad or that I am not trying to be a d@#k?
I am not trying to be d#@k, but I am not so sure that you have the constitution to be investing in speculative biotech. This is a heart breaking stock to say the least. Basically, if you believe that Rida and Pona will be approved (and the world is not coming to an end), then you hold until the end of next year and you should be rewarded. Perhaps it was a little overvalued in the 13's, but other than being a high beta stock, this awful trading has nothing to do with the fundamentals of Ariad. The overall is a mess, but this too shall pass. Ariad should respond nicely when risk comes back in favor.
If I did not own too much already, I would be buying on weakness here. Maybe quit watching it everyday or sell if it makes you sick to your stomach. Your health is not worth it.
GL
Don't feel bad. I'm not new to this and I am trying to understand it as well.
You're joking right? XOM is down 5% and you are wondering why ARIA is down 8%.
I know it's not very well liked on this board, but anyone willing to comment on the PR put out by Arna today?
Try Fruit of the loom boxers briefs. They offer some good downside support ;0)
ARIA has been hit harder than almost any other biotech I follow besides DNDN. BTH, 2DA, have you guys got any idea why? In my worst nightmare I didn't see this coming
I saw it when it was ateast 194k, so it was more than 100k.
bottoms are hard to call
things needed and not yet seen
! gas under $3
2 housing values up
3 jobs
4 GDP 4%+
You know, I always wondered what it would look like if/when one of the whales decided it was time to go. Now at least I don't have to wonder any more.
I am fairly certain that some whale(s) is/are unloading heavily onto the market. They have been since the opening bell. Almost 7 million shares traded so far today indicates to me that there has to be significant buying interest. The seller(s) are just unloading as fast as they can. You can't fight this, we are not going anywhere until they are done.
I heard on CNBC tonight while I was driving that the RSI on the S/P 500 is currently 17ish. The last time it was at that level was March 2009. The panic is just absurd right now.
I have sold some of my dead wood already and I will continue to sell some more in the next few days. Hell, if Ariad keeps going down, I will not have any choice, Ameritrade will be calling!
From the perspective of a small business owner, I am seeing/hearing a little buzz that has been absent before. I am a commercial GC in NY and I see that clients are starting to push some chips on the table. Those build outs/capital improvements that were non-existent before are starting to come back again (slowly). Margins still suck, but that's another story. I hear other small business owners saying similar things. Iandy mentioned today on this board that he is in retail and he is not doing all that bad. Neither is the TJ Maxx and some other big retailer next to him. Point is I am not as fearful as some and have started preparing myself for the comeback. If these idiots in Washington could stop playing politics and do something constructive for this country, we might see a little glimmer of hope in this $hitstorm.
Anyway, good talking to you.
Hey Blade,
The macro environment has really never been strong throughout this last 2 year run. I think that while you guys are waiting for some clarity, the market might just surprise you and bounce back. Earnings have been good, S/P is trading cheap right now and inflows are bound to come back to US equities b/c these fund managers are going to need to get some returns for their clients. This has been the nature of this recovery. Nothing really to get excited about. Anything positive and these whores will start falling over themselves to buy back in. I will admit that September is a long way off and August does make me nervous.
Another reason I am still moderately bullish is that the fear mongering in the last 2 weeks is off the charts. I am sure a lot of people did what you and BTH did. Nothing wrong with that. That makes me skeptical about selling and hoping to buy back when things are more certain. While I am waiting for $8-$9, it will be back over $11-$12, IMO.
I may regret it, but I am holding on. I am still optimistic the overall will bounce back and we will see $15 by the end of the year.
GL because we will need it!
Right now, I kind of feel like a guy stuck in the middle of the ocean, paddling his arms just keeping his head above the water. Just hoping to weather the storm here for a while until things clear up.
It's scary how the mood has gone from euphoria to despair so quickly. I thought about selling some in the 13's for many reasons, but I have to admit that I definitely did not see this one coming.
Appreciate the feedback.
GL
Hey Mcb
When we last spoke, I believe you had mentioned Mrk's lack of commentary on Rida and concerns about it's potential approval as to why you were not invested in Ariad. Now that Mrk has filed the NDA in the EU and the PPS has pulled back considerably, have you or are you considering a position here?
Thanks, Joe
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=DNDN+Insider+Transactions
It's not like the longs haven't had their cue to sell. These insiders sure took advantage of the huge run-up. Planned/automatic or not, that's a lot of selling.
Still anytime you see a company get sawed in half after a halt, you have to feel bad for the shareholders. Helpless!
Agreed on all points
I was referring to the volume yesterday being over 6 mil compared to the over 3 mil average. According to your post, it was pretty much all retail selling (26-1). That's pretty remarkable considering the constant downward pressure yesterday. Good to know.
Wow that's interesting. 2X the normal volume and it was mostly retail? So much for my institutional selling theory.
Incy has become real attractive down here, IMO.
Perhaps, but there have been a few dilutions that resulted in no decreases in pps. I think $100-$125 mil or so in the coffers would pretty much guaranty that Ariad will keep the lion's share of 534 and 113. Could be viewed positively. All speculation (by both of us).
$10 is not far away and is certainly possibility. I don't see your $10 PIPE being a reality, however.