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SAC Capital now holds 7.9 million shares of ARIA
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884731/000089914012000283/ssched13ga.htm
Not really.
But an entire new generation of investors/management companies/traders, whatever, are all using it. And all have their algo's pegged to historical technical levels.
I really hate the new algo-world. But we all live in it now.
Doesn't take a genius to see where an algo would place an offer or sell program, just looking at past levels (yes, going back 10 years - they still work).
You can stop speculating on a Phase 3 underway in ovarian - the data you guys are using from the biocatalyst site is absolutely 100% incorrect.
I didn't know we had another phase 3 underway
or just retail driven, speculative BS over at Reuters article saying Bayer is going to takeover a biotech company.
the 105% ownership is probably due to convertible shares or something.
When 80% of the float is held by solid hands (with a large percentage of those being well known HC funds) its generally a good thing - in that, it leaves on 20% of the float out there for public consumption - any 'not known' news is going to cause a panic buy-in from anyone who wanted to own it, but doesn't currently.
However, on the flip side, generally, the dumb money is the last to buy (all the smart money has already bought, making most of the best gains behind).
Ariad's institutional ownership, currently, is among the best in the "who's who" category of healthcare funds - all the best ones are owners. Incredibly impressive considering where this thing was back in 2007 - when Wellington sold their entire 2 million share position under $2 (actually, probably closer to .75 cents)(LOL - f' them)
Is Erwin, Dr Williams?
Didnt they have to close down several stores in China last quarter because there were riots when they released one of their new products?
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jan/13/business/la-fiw-apple-china-20120114
Just sayin'.
I think a lot of stupid people take a look at the "price" and make the dumb conclusion that because its $600/share, it must be expensive.
LOL, no.
I want to see some '113.
Yes, it would be like large pharma to wait until ARIA is trading at $40, and then offer $65.
Merck....those guys are the worst, probably will be them. Large pharma = total buffoonery.
Reuters Article
ANALYSIS-New Amgen CEO must win investors with payouts, deals
7:02 AM Eastern Daylight Time Apr 24, 2012
* Bob Bradway to replace CEO Sharer in May
* Dividends, stock buybacks have boosted shares
* Other investors eager for new drugs
* Reports latest results later Tuesday
By Deena Beasley
LOS ANGELES, April 24 (Reuters) - Bob Bradway hasn't even taken the helm at Amgen Inc <AMGN.O>, but the clock is already ticking on how the world's largest biotech will compete with rivals, including Big Pharma.
Powerful value investors, who helped push up the stock 26 percent since it took a page from traditional drug companies last year with a dividend payout and stock buyback plan, are clamoring for more.
But other shareholders still hope Amgen can keep growing, possibly by spending some of the firm's pile of cash to bulk up the pipeline of new drugs.
The stakes for Bradway - a former Morgan Stanley investment banker who takes over as Amgen chief executive on May 23 - could not be higher.
Some industry experts warn that the bedrock of California biotech could be for sale if he fails to drive revenue and its share price higher.
"If nothing comes out of the pipeline, then the company is going to be rolled into a bigger, global diversified company," said Sanford Bernstein analyst Geoffrey Porges. "That tends to be the nature of this industry. I don't think the time is right for that now ... but sooner or later investors are going to ask: What have you done for me lately?"
Earnings growth at the Thousand Oaks, California-based company has stalled in recent years, hurt by safety concerns linked to overuse of its anemia drugs Epogen and Aranesp. Amgen will report its latest quarterly results on Tuesday.
Of the 29 Wall Street analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters, 16 rate the $53 billion biotech company as "hold," six rate it as a "strong buy," five as "buy," with one each at "underperform," and "sell."
Its market valuation is in line with those of the most well-entrenched and slower growing traditional drugmakers, including Johnson & Johnson <JNJ.N> and Merck & Co <MRK.N>.
Amgen is valued at 11 times estimated 2012 earnings. The average price to earnings ratio for the pharmaceutical industry is just over 12, compared with more than 32 for the biotech industry.
Amgen's current growth driver is bone drug denosumab - sold under the brand names Prolia for osteoporosis and Xgeva for cancer patients. Another bone drug has just moved into a pivotal-stage trial.
An experimental cholesterol-lowering drug in a new class known as PCSK9 inhibitors has shown promise, but it has yet to be tested in a large-scale trial.
"This is an excellent opportunity for the new CEO to come in with a new slate and a new take on getting more innovation out of their pipeline," said Morningstar analyst Karen Anderson.
COMPETITION LOOMS
Amgen's need for new drugs is particularly acute given expected new competition, both branded and generic, for its biggest-selling products. The same is true of the drug industry as a whole, and Amgen faces a crowded field of potential suitors for many desirable takeover targets, driving up deal prices.
Amgen spent close to $1.2 billion earlier this year to acquire Micromet and its technology for linking cell-destroying T-cells to cancerous tumors, paying a 33 percent premium. Last year, it acquired privately-held BioVex, which also developed drugs aiming to harness the immune system to fight cancer.
Both are seen as legacies of Roger Perlmutter, Amgen's long-time research and development chief who was replaced in February by Sean Harper, previously the company's chief medical officer.
Initial results from a pivotal trial of the BioVex melanoma vaccine are expected late this year, but most of Amgen's pipeline products are still in earlier stages of human testing.
"Amgen has a relatively large and deep product pipeline, however, we do not think many of the products are good," Stifel Nicolaus analyst Joel Sendek said in a March research report.
If that is indeed the case, the company will need to bring in more drug candidates, either through licensing deals or a more aggressive acquisition strategy.
"They are likely to announce a more focused, strategic R&D strategy which includes more in-licensing, acquisitions and focusing on their core strength," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Yee. "I don't see the company undergoing a major restructuring and divesting drugs."
He and others say Amgen's spending on R&D, nearly 20 percent of sales revenue, is too high.
"If you kind of put them in the bucket of mature pharma companies, that model has been cutting back on spending," said David Heupel, senior equity research analyst at Thrivent Financial, which holds Amgen shares. "Amgen spends more like a growth company, but given the mature nature of most of their products, it's hard to move the top line."
A recent partnership under which AstraZeneca <AZN.L> will share the cost of developing five of Amgen's inflammation-targeting antibodies is seen as a signal that the California company aims to streamline.
DIVIDEND EXPECTED TO INCREASE
In the meantime, the temptation may be high to stick to a "shareholder friendly" strategy of paying out its cash.
Amgen's share price, flat for most of current CEO Kevin Sharer's more than 10-year tenure, has risen 26 percent since the company announced its first dividend a year ago, compared with an 18 percent gain for the Nasdaq biotech index <.NBI>. Investors also cheered a $5 billion share buyback last year.
Amgen is authorized to repurchase another $5 billion in shares and investors are betting that, with 2011 revenue of $15.6 billion, it will raise the dividend payout further.
"Just give me a good dividend increase each year and I am as happy as a clam at high tide," said Bill Smead, portfolio manager of the Smead Value Fund, which owns 32,784 shares of Amgen. "People are learning that that is how you attract shareholders."
He also expects Amgen's stock to benefit as record-low interest rates inevitably start rising, and cash-rich companies not dependent on borrowing come back into favor.
At the end of 2011, Amgen held $20.6 billion in worldwide cash and marketable securities, spurring speculation that some of that money could be used to acquire other companies.
RBC's Yee said a company like Ariad Pharmaceuticals <ARIA.O>, which has later-stage candidates for treating leukemia and lung cancer, would be a good synergistic fit with Amgen.
"They need to focus on drugs that could come to market in 2013 or 2014," Yee said. "I don't expect them to do a transforming acquisition."
Since most of its cash hoard sits overseas, acquisition of a foreign company would be less of a tax hit to Amgen, which has said publicly it is seeking to expand its geographic footprint.
That has driven speculation that Belgian drugmaker UCB <UCB.BR> or Swiss biotech Actelion <ATLN.VX> may be in its sights.
"The question is how is the new CEO going to take a look at M&A and how that fits into Amgen's strategy," said Thrivent Financial's Heupel.
Do you know what makes PX-866 unique (according to ONTY)....the irreversibilty of the drug? I am not a biologist so I would love to hear thoughts on it.
http://www.oncothyreon.com/pipeline/small/px-866/overview.html
There hasn’t been a big Phase III clinical trial yet to prove that blocking PI3k can have a big impact on cancer patients, but a number of companies have been working on various small-molecule drugs in earlier stages of development. Gilead Sciences paid $375 million up front last year to acquire Seattle-based Calistoga Pharmaceuticals, which developed a specific PI3k inhibitor aimed at its so-called “delta” variations of the enzyme that are implicated in blood cancers. Millennium paid $190 million up front last year to take over San Diego-based Intellikine and its portfolio of PI3k-inhibitors against lots of different variations of the target.
Actually, its probably Biomedreports. LOL. Oops. Small mistake.
Lets hope. Because if the markets keep churning like this through the summer, its really gonna suck.
If this stock "sells off" on the news (when ponatinib is approved), this board is going to be hysterical. I have no idea whats going to happen and really believe that if '113 shows results like '534 did, this thing is going much higher. But, this board is batty-land right now...
The marketcap is currently $2.3 billion. I suppose you think that is nothing, right?
'113 is really the game changer to get this stock to the NEXT level.
RE: ARIA
Technically speaking, me personally, I would like to buy it at the 200 DMA around 13.50ish, (OR) above $16.00. I know that sounds weird, but, I don't like it in between. I think it finds support at the 200 DMA. If not, it could go a lot lower (just on technical breakdown). Above $16 would be a pure momentum play, and breaking out.
'113 news would really get things ramping again.
Wow.
Talk about a pile of crap, mixed in with a few decent names (2-3, at best).
NWBO.OB .....LOL. I cant believe that company still exists. Their mail address is probably the janitorial closet in an office building.
So you don't believe in the ASCO "runup"?
I haven't really done back-testing about this "runup" theory; but, is it B.S.?
I can't really recall a situation where all oncology plays ran up big into ASCO. The only thing I can recall is all these stocks taking a dumper at the conference, regardless if they ran up or down.
That's exactly my thought.
No evidence that this was going to happen in the volume, options market at all.
What are your thoughts on '011 and Rindo?
Do you think an ORR of 10-15% would be impressive?
Who knows....maybe ARQL will be the surprise "star" of ASCO. I dnt know about anyne else, but I think $400 million is undervalued. I think they did a good job raising money where they did, there was strong demand. Celldex certainly isn't acting all that bright anymore.
Erivedge was approved on January 30, and in previous conference calls, Roche said it would take another 2 weeks to get the drug out there. $5.5 million USD in 6 weeks isn't a bad start.
I think that there are some real fools out there that think there were 14,000 patients waiting at CVS for the drug, on Day One.
Indeed, it is unfortunate that Curis management signed such a stupid arrangement.
ONT-10 is sure to be the talk of all mouse models and xenograft models.
The only reason ONTY should be a decent trade here is because of their PI3K drug. ONT-10 is a fairy tale as far as I am concerned - Stimuvax is a gamble. At least PI3K is a validated target and early results have been pretty good - good enough for them to hopefully extract $100 million upfront from a potential partner at some point. Wasn't it Gilead that paid nearly $600 million for a company that had one PI3K drug?
I am long, because I am gambling on STIMUVAX. I still think Bob Kirkman is an unbridled moron.
Yes, maybe by the year 2020, when ONT-10 is at its second interim analysis, we can rehash all the same conversations about p-values here on this board. Seeking Alpha statistians can write about how theres a 90% chance of success at the interim, and then, when it fails to meet the expectation, those very same statisticans will say the chances of success at the final are little, if any, based on the same flawed principles that led them to their thesis in the first place.
Whatever Bob Kirkman decides to do, rest assured, it will be detrimental to shareholders.
I wonder if Kirkman has figured out what a p-value is (not relating to his own trial, but ANY trial).
You understand that a $60 price is equivalent to nearly $11 billion in market-cap, right?
Maybe.....some day... way far off in the distance.
I owned it, bought more on the financing, and sold 2.75-2.80.
Would like to buy it back lower. Sold because of the chronic flow of what seemed like fluff pump pieces from the company. Also, it seemed like they were paying some really bad Seeking Alpha articles to write stories on them.
I think their compounds are pretty cool though, and they might make it work. Just wanted to take my money and run, and hopefully buy back later (theyre still only in early Phase 2-----but, their P2 enrollment is looking really strong). If you believe in immunotherapy, I really believe their compounds are legit.
WHY on EARTH would ANYONE listen to a word this clown has to say?
I swear, the dumber you are on Seeking Alpha, the more "followers" you will have (this is practically "Law"). His Ariad "piece" was just outright brutal. Say what you want about valuations now etc., etc., but when you start saying Ponatinib and Ridaforolimus are the same molecule and same target, then, you got problems. Not only that, but he couldnt even pronounce the names properly.
Why, what does poorgradstudent say about CYTK?
This is good stuff
Do you have the CLDX report from CANT?
This is just a small trial sponsored by MD Anderson.
ARIAD is the collaborator.
EXEL. do you mean cheap from a price perspective, or a marketcap perspective?
I assume you are referring to market cap :)
What do you think cabo is worth? I think it is a real drug, I just have a hard time thinking there is real big upside, even where the stock is now, considering where the market cap is. Personally, I dont think its that cheap - and management just loves printing stock.
Out of all the biotechs I know, this is the company that has done the least with the most. Even with cabo, some of the drugs that have recently been either approved, or nearing approval, show similar to possibly better efficacy, no?
(i havent been invested in EXEL in about a year, so, my recollection and knowledge here is currently lacking a little)
Would love to hear you thoughts.....