is...hopefully making money
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It is discouraging to see how strong resistance has become around $12.40. Any time hits that price, sellers come out of the woodworks and it drops off like a lead balloon. I guess a lot of people figured out the pattern and they trade out at that price knowing they can pick it back up later that day in the high $11's.
I hope we knock their socks off one of these days. I know it sounds petty, but I am tired of shorts and traders being the only ones making money on CCME.
Volume is looking good today. The new currency policy could be the trigger that we needed to bring favor back to our sector. A little analyst coverage with good price targets could finally set CCME ablaze.
I like it! We can be the CCME Motley Crew. We can call our program Due Diligence Gone Wild :)
In all seriousness, we need to come up with a creative way to celebrate when CCME hits $20. We'll all have a lot more money then, so let's get creative. Perhaps we can upload pictures of ourselves passed out drunk from champagne.
Value, the source of my handle is not quite that high class, it is actually from a very different type of classic - Blazing Saddles. Hey, beauty is in the eye of the beholder ;)
I agree, I'm only partially serious. If I were solely a TA trader I would have dumped CCME a long time ago. I'm in it for the fundamentals.
The personal struggle becomes immense when a stock with such potential under performs because frustration is cumulative, compounding on a daily bases. At some point it becomes so painful that you sit there with you finger on the sell button trying to talk yourself off of the ledge. Lately I've felt like I could be a jumper, but have had to good sense (I hope) to talk myself back down.
Maybe we should start a CCME therapy board for investors that are close to quitting and need support :)
I've come to call this phenomena the CCME pop-then-flop. Predictable doesn't begin to express the monotony of owning this stock over the past 6 months. For the same experience I'm considering just moving all my money to cash and kicking myself in the balls every day.
Another bearish article out today from small cap network -
http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/Time-To-Be-In-The-Minority-Outlooks-for-ZIXI-CCME-and-TASR/s/article/view/p/mid/3/id/332/
I don't agree with a buyback. Buying the shares back for more than they sold them to Starr for just 6 months ago would send a clear message that management has no idea what they are doing. That would mean that the Starr equity investment was a colossal mistake because the net result would be a transfer of equity out of the company and into Starr's pocket for the difference in share price. Let's just hope that they have good expansion plans that they are going to capitalize on soon.
Their past ROI implies that they know how to put money to good use. I think we all wish they would quit dragging their feet though.
I have a different theory, and one that may upset some people. This stock is range bound, and everyone knows it so nobody is touching it. What's worse is that retail investors who were looking for a 2-3 month pop are learning that this stock is completely stuck in the mud and dumping in mass to pursue other opportunities. That is why we can't get any momentum even when the market is up huge.
Nothing moves this stock because there is absolutely ZERO institutional interest in it at this time. Don't ask me why, I don't have any theories to explain the absence of interest.
If there was any substantial accumulation going on there would be price movement. That is not happening and you're lying to yourself if you try to tell yourself otherwise. Why would every other stock move when it is accumulated but not CCME? We don't trade in a different universe with different laws of supply and demand. There is no covert operation designed to undermine us.
What we have is no demand. What we have is a lame duck. Period.
I wish. They are a sole proprietorship otherwise I would be buying in. They are a shop of about 200 and their latest deal was a $50 million contract. They are in some money for sure.
I'm trying to have that same "problem", but CCME is refusing to help me out at the moment :)
Though I have fast become a short term pessimist, I would be remiss if I did not mention that my uncle owns a large metal yard that deals raw materials (steel, copper, iron) and my father manages a company that builds solar cells and carbon fiber ovens, and both of them have told me that their orders from China have ramped up significantly over the past six months. In fact, both of them said that they have more orders than they can handle at the present moment. My father's company has already hit their full year revenue targets, almost solely from business in China.
The Chinese market seems very sound from a production standpoint, it is just a matter of favor amongst traders. Investing in our space right now is like discovering a diamond mine only to find that every woman on earth now prefers cubic zirconia.
I like the fundamentals of CCME too. Probably more than any other stock I have ever owned (hence my significant ownership in it). However, my concern is that nobody with big money seems to agree with us. The frustrating progression of CCME ownership has been:
1. Killer initial 10k. Nothing happened. Told myself "patience"
2. Killer 10Q and strong guidance. Nothing happened. Told myself "patience" and asked for an uplisting.
3. Got the uplisting. Nothing happened. Told myself "patience"
4. PR after PR announcing new contracts, possible new services and exciting news about increasing margins. Each time nothing happens. Continue to tell myself "patience"
And why has not one single analyst initialized coverage for this stock 6 months after the reverse merger?
So the question I am asking myself and cannot in good faith answer is - will I still be telling myself "have patience" 6 months from now with nothing to show for it but missed expectations?
I know I am venting but the magnitude of disappointment that I have in CCME is almost unfathomable.
If there was enough buy interest in CCME the manipulation efforts would be overrun. NOBODY on the institutional side wants this stock. Uplisting news hasn't moved it, new contracts haven't moved it, killer earnings haven't moved it, 100% growth projections haven't moved it. What the hell has to happen to get things moving?
Intitutional investors have had plenty of time to due DD and decide whether or not this is a good buy and it seems that they have made their decision for now. That doesn't mean that it won't turn around later, but CCME is definetly out of favor for now. I mean, Shanghai composite is up 2%, DOW is up 1% yet CCME is flat or in the red.
The performance of stock has been an epic disappointment all year and nobody, myself included, can explain why. The only thing that I can surmise is that the market is betting that CCME is a fraud like so many other Chinese companies and is pricing in that risk.
I'm beginning to exit my position for now.
Chinese stocks are getting no love these days. When I look up the Shanghai composite, I don't ask myself "What is it doing today?" anymore, but rather "How much is it down today?" And US traded Chinese stocks have been selling off for just about as long as I can remember (selective memory, but you get the point).
I'm glad to see that CCME is weathering the storm much better than many of its peers, but this is starting to get downright depressing.
Nice close near high of day. I'm looking forward to next week, and then the week after that CME begins trading on the NASDAQ. Good times ahead.
I am curious as to what is everyone's sentiment regarding how far the correction is going to go. I originally thought that 20% in the Shanghai index would have been sufficient to account for the expected tightening in China and EU meltdown, but now I am thinking the dust may settle closer to 30%. It also seems to me that the DOW wants to hit 9800, which it tested with the 1000 point intra-day dip. That seems overdone to me, however the market is very risk adverse right now and that doesn't bode well for emerging markets, or any market for that matter.
My strategy is to continue to weather the storm and continue to hope that when the turnaround does come that it will reward those with a big risk appetite. What does everyone else think? Are you moving to a healthy cash position or weathering it as well?
It does continue to dampen my mood that every bit of good news CCME announces is muted by global crisis news. Someone needs to stop feeding the market gremlins chicken after midnight. Sheesh.
As an individual that has been critical of this management team for "sleeping at the wheel" when it comes to taking action to help us shareholders, I feel compelled to start singing a new tune. Jackie has done an excellent job of late; giving us great Q1 results, a much improved conference call, two recent PRs about acquisition of new bus contracts and now a NASDAQ up listing.
Management has done everything that we have asked for, now it is time to let the institutional investors do the rest - which I am confident they will. I am going to send Jackie an email expressing my appreciation for the steps that they have taken recently to help the stocks valuation.
These actions are going to pay big dividends in coming months, of that I am sure.
I was not implying that CCME should be trading inline with the Shanghai index. I was simply implying that today is a terrible day for Chinese small caps (major Chinese indices were way, way down), and for CCME to be showing strengh on a day like today is a very bullish sign.
Making a nice comeback on healthy volume. I like where it is at right now given that the Shanghai index was down 5% today. A close at or near green would be an incredible sign of strenght.
Yep, I am aware of that and, like you, still feel that their EPS for 2010 will meet or exceed $2 per share. We certainly have to account for the additional dilution that will come with the share conversion. Given that Q1 is their weakest quarter and they put up $18 million net (non-GAAP), and we are still expecting standard sequential growth plus additional revs from acquisitions, we'll be better than fine. Continued patience and watch it develop, that's the plan.
I wish I had the temperament to "lose" my brokerage account credentials and simply ignore it for 6 months, but that is not my nature. I'll probably just continue to drive myself crazy all the way up to $30 :)
Well, at least we found support in the high $12's. Kinda makes you wonder what CCME would have done if the market had not tanked today.
A lot of people are probably looking at the initial EPS and panicking. They are overlooking the fact that the diluted EPS of .27 is due to a one time write down of $9 million. They won't have that write down going forward. Since Q1 is traditionally their weakest Q, we can expect over $.54 per quarter going forward (probably much more if they hit a good acquisition). I'd be very surprised if this stock does anything less the $2.00 a share GAAP this year. The institutional guys will pick up on this and gladly take shares off the panicky, less savvy retail guys. Unless the broader market suffers a pullback, we should continue our climb over the coming weeks.
Zheng Cheng, CME's Founder and CEO, commented, "We started 2010 on a very strong note with record revenue and net income. Our revenue and net income for the quarter grew by 39% and 27% respectively when compared to the 2009 fourth quarter. Basic and diluted earnings per share in the first quarter of 2010 was $0.28 and $0.27, respectively (after a one-time charge of $9,242,000 related to a deemed dividend on the issuance of our convertible preferred stock in the first quarter); excluding this deemed dividend, the income attributable to holders of common shares (non-GAAP net income) would be $18,142,000 and the basic and diluted earnings per share would have been $0.58 and $0.54, respectively."
A close above 13.77 would be significant.
New Support Levels for China MediaExpress Holdings (CCME)
Published on 05/11/2010 by Leo Goldman (leo.goldman@marketintellisearch.com)
NEW YORK (Market Intellisearch) -- Today’s trading activities for China MediaExpress Holdings stock may signal that the shares may continue to head higher in the foreseeable future assuming that the moving average continues to rise with the price of the equity. Savvy investors who focus on quality stocks while looking for the right opportunity to make a trade should focus on the moving averages to track the trend.
Today, the shares of China MediaExpress Holdings crossed above the 50-day moving average indicating a likely bullish trend. Shares of CCME settled the day up $1.71 to $13.21 on heavier than usual volume. In today's trading session, the stock price ranged between $11.99 and $13.45. The stock's 52 week low is 7.3 and the 52 week high is 14.82.
Other relevant figures to examine are the support and resistance levels for CCME. Based on the pivot points, the current support and resistance levels for China MediaExpress Holdings are 12.31 and 13.77 respectively. If the resistance point price is broken in an upward movement, then the bullish trend is likely to continue and vice versa.
CCME 11th on Yahoo! Finance's % price movers -
http://finance.yahoo.com/gainers?e=us
Speaking of overweight, CCME is 100% of my holdings (aside from my 401(k)). I am not a traditional investor and when I see a good opportunity I believe in going big. I did the same thing in late 2009 with CKGT when it was $1.31. Sometimes the market just hands you a gem with a bow tie and I like to say thank you by swinging for the fences.
CCME is no exception. It has taken some time to develop, but I am am confident about where it is going.
Like Buffet says - you can put your eggs in one basket, just watch the basket very closely! -or something like that-
I agree, and I think the fact that Chinese stocks have been out of favor is about to change too. Goldman is pounding the table on Chinese stocks, calling for Shanghai to hit 3800 within 12 months. We also have the possibility of analyst coverage and, God willing, an up listing. We could have a perfect storm (good storm that is) brewing here.
$30 has a place in the back of my mind. I'm willing to hold till we get there.
Good volume today and good price movement. Could good news be on the horizon?
First let me speculate - NOBODY on this board is satisfied with 19%, not for CCME. Let’s just get that out of the way.
I don't think that anyone is looking for a quick, un-vetted acquisition just for the sake of making some news. I trust that CME is going to make well vetted acquisition decisions that maximize ROI. That is why my money is with them. However, I would like to hear more from the company about timeframes, target markets, prospects, priority, etc. related to acquisitions since it was a key aspect of their growth strategy for 2010. I don't like the fact that we are almost in May and don't have much news by the way of their acquisition plans - which are supposed to generate $20 million in net income THIS YEAR.
Also, they could solve the whole concern about uplisting by giving us a firm answer regarding whether or not they do intend to uplist to NASDAQ and what priority the move is to them. Ideally, Jackie would respond with a firm commitment to uplist and let us know it was a high priority for them because it would benefit their current shareholders by attracting new investors. This type of transparency is something that is not unreasonable to expect.
I agree that one should have patience when investing. However, I don't use a patience mantra to excuse away unexplainable delays in a stock coming to an appropriate valuation while management isn't going all out for their investors. Fact is, CME has not been trading right and we need management’s help to improve the situation.
It isn't selling pressure that concerns me, it is that there is just no buy interest right now. Volume has been weak and short term investors are getting bored. I am not sure what it is going to take to get people interested in this stock, but management needs to step up the IR to spark some more interest. The story is great, it is just not getting out there to drum up enough institutional interest to get volume moving.
The lack of IR is the last thing I expected from CME. I thought they were going to be aggressive and transparent. For example, there still hasn't been enough talk about what they are doing with their mountain of cash. They just spent $4 million USD on the recent addition of approximately 500 busses, but what about the other $100 million? People want to know what their acquisition plans are, especially considering acquisition revs are supposed to account for 50% of 2010 rev growth. We are already almost into May and they are yet to make a big move or announce any major plans.
As per uplisting to the NASDAQ, I mean come on. Let’s get that no brainer done already. WTF?
I don't think I am being impatient or unreasonable. I've been holding my core position since December and have seen very little aggregate appreciation. That is rediculous for a company that just announced blowout earnings and ridiculous 2010 guidance. At this point I think management and IR have to start taking the blame for the underperformance. They are not doing what it takes to get the stock to jive with investors.
Nice! Got a 2k share pop up to $13.05 right at the close!
A close above $13 would be great.
I agree that Lotus is a great LT investment and is very undervalued, however the 10-k did have some aspects that could easily be considered negative. These considerations would surely be enough to shake out those who were only in LTUS because they were hoping for a quick jump to $2 a share on a great 10-k.
1) Their revenues are down YOY (not good)
2) Q4 is historically their strongest quarter, but this Q4 lagged significantly.
2) They cited growing competition in Beijing as a concern for future price pressure - which could impact future margins
3) They had to write down 1.7 Million for a non-cash fixed asset adjustment (many people will miss non-cash adjustments and just assume that they missed their numbers because of sales/margin problems)
Once the new production facility is operational and people see the revenues come back with a vengeance, LTUS will begin to command a much better multiple IMO.
Showing strenght again today. Once we get the shorts to start to have to cover we should break the trading range we've been stuck in. Also, the last week and a half of consolidation should help ensure a much more sustainable rise.
You're right; scrapping R&D was a poor choice of words. What I meant is that they are cutting their own internal R&D and going fully outsourced. This is evidenced by their RD costs for 2009 vs 2008. Either way, that is a change in strategy. They are clearly not looking to R&D as their strength to remain competitive. It is their cost leadership and distribution channels that they claim give them an advantage over competitors.
Research and development
2009 2008
— 1,200,194
Lotus East faces competition from domestic drug research and development companies and drug manufacturing companies which are growing rapidly. Its direct competitors are domestic pharmaceutical companies and new drug research and development institutes that have fairly strong research and development capabilities in new drugs such as Beijing Venture Biopharma Technology Co., Ltd., Fosun Group Co., Ltd., Zhuhai Lizhu and Beijing Nohua. Lotus East also faces competition of foreign companies who have strong proprietary pipeline and strong financial resources. These companies have significantly greater assets than Lotus East and have a larger current market share. Lotus East believes its advantage is its local distribution network and lower prices
Bulls are taking charge on good volume. I have a feeling that a majority of the foat is now in stronger hands. Me and a few others that don't post on iHub are holding 40k shares. I can add up in my head about 2 million shares being held by individuals on iHub that are holding for $20 plus. I think the time to pull ahead is upon us.
Assuming that they complete their new production facility on time, which is slated for this summer, they should start to recognize significant revenue from their new direct sales channel. The direct sales are going to be a majority of their revenues going forward and everything hinges on the production facility completion for that to come to fruition. They are projecting 2011 full year revenues of 150 million and most of that will be from direct sales.
Something that was very telling to me in the 10-k was that they announced that they are scrapping their R&D. IMO they are changing their entire business to this new direct sales model, and likely because of heavy competition in pharmaceuticals development.
No, but a lot of people were expecting .10+ and are dissappointed by these results. Again, I believe the selloff will be short lived and we will see a steady climb from these lows.
People wanted rocket launching results and what we got was impressive but unexciting 10-k. Long term investors will be pleased with these results and will stay long.