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Dan, why would they make it public at this time? If they were going to add a significant amount of gold to their holdings, wouldn't it be prudent to announce that fact after the purchases? What do think the motive is in making these statements now?
Doesn't this announcement also cross the Central Banks attempt to strengthen the dollar by buying US Treasuries? What is your drift on all of this?
Looks like the BU$$ is crawling back into it's old box. It appears to have given up 33
Gold may end the day above 420. That would be a real plus after the drop this am.
A little bit dated but pertinent to today's decline in gold. In edit NEM hits 45
The euro
January 12, 2004
The euro has become quite the buzz in the gold market. No wonder, look at the close correlation between the dollar-euro exchange rate and the gold price in US dollars, shown on the chart below.
Such a close correlation is not a coincidence. The major driver behind the changes in the US dollar gold price since 1996 is nothing other than change in the US dollar exchange rate, which explains the correlation between the dollar gold price and the dollar-euro exchange rate.
The euro, as we all know, had a rough start. But that was probably more due to the fact that its launch happened to coincide with a feverish demand for US dollars than to anything else. The dollar was gaining against almost all currencies, and its momentum was too much for the new euro to deal with. This caused the euro to decline by 29% against the dollar from January 1, 1999 to October 25, 2000.
The demand for US dollars was also what caused the gold price decline from February 1996 to April 2001. You can see the dollar’s influence on both the euro and the gold price by noting that the rate of decline for both is the same, except for the spike in the gold price in September 1999 when the Washington Agreement was announced. If you remove the effect of the Washington Agreement on the gold price, the euro and gold mimic each other almost perfectly over a period that spans five years.
The euro is obviously not a commodity. It is clear from the chart that gold’ behavior is identical to that of the euro, the world’s second largest currency by GDP. We have seen before (see archives) that the price of gold does not respond to changes in net investment demand for gold, producer hedging, central bank sales, or other metrics that should have an impact on its price if it were a commodity. Therefore it is obvious that gold is not behaving as a commodity. It is, however, behaving like a currency, which is not surprising since gold is, after all, money.
As mentioned, the euro’s initial decline was mainly due to the dollar’s momentum. Fundamentally I am not a fan of either the euro or the dollar, since both are fiat currencies and therefore ultimately doomed. The euro is actually a worse currency than the dollar because of the diversity of Europe compared to the United States. But in the short to medium term, the euro is likely to continue to do well, not only against the dollar, but against most other currencies for the simple reason that the euro is replacing a portion of reserve assets currently held in dollars. It makes sense for countries that trade with both Europe and the United States to hold euros and dollars in proportion to the relative trade balances with each economic block. The dollar’s monopoly as the main reserve currency in which almost all trade, including all oil purchases, is settled, is slowly being dismantled and this will continue to put pressure on the dollar and boost the euro, for many years to come.
The expansion of the European Union is a built- in guarantee that the euro is going to continue to do well in the short term because any country joining the Union will automatically settle trade with other Union members with euros.
This does not mean that the euro cannot decline, or that the dollar won’t rebound in the short term. We have to distinguish between long-term trends and short-term volatility. In the short term anything is possible, and the euro will take a knock every now and then, and the dollar will get a B-12 shot from time to time. However, looking out five or ten years, I think it’s a safe bet that the dollar will continue to weaken and the euro will continue to strengthen.
As the chart above shows, the decline in the euro from January 1999 to June 2002, and the relatively stable gold price during the same time, implies that the price of gold in euros should have increased during those two and a half years, which it did, by 42%. As a corollary, the strength in the euro, in perfect step with the increase in the gold price since 2002, implies that the gold price in euros is no longer increasing. Since June 2002, the gold price in euros in fact dropped 4%, while the gold price in dollars increased by 31%.
Let me say it again: the decline in the price of gold from 1996 to 2001 was due to the strength of the US dollar on foreign exchange markets. The increase in the gold price since 2002 is, similarly, due to weakness in the dollar. What is currently being perceived as a bull market in gold is, in reality, only a bear market in the dollar. It is a dollar phenomenon: the price of gold in euros, as we have seen, has not increased since June 2002. Neither has the price of gold in South African rands (down 15% since June 2002) or Australian dollars (down 3.5% since June 2002), two of the largest gold producing countries in the world.
For all the talk about the cabal losing control, or the shortfall between mine supply and fabrication demand, or swings in net investment demand for gold, or concern about the world’s monetary system collapsing because it’s based on a fiat currency (the dollar), the evidence suggests that gold is merely maintaining its purchasing power. That is to say, gold is doing what it has done for centuries: acting as a store of wealth.
Paul van Eeden
maine, this is about a week old. Bob Z. posted it earlier on SI.
Motley Fool
Isis' 2G Drug Shines
Tuesday January 6, 10:03 am ET
By David Nierengarten
Isis Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ISIS - News) jumped almost 10% yesterday on news of positive Phase II trial results from its rheumatoid arthritis (RA) drug candidate, ISIS 104838 (alas, no cool trade name yet). About 40% of patients achieved a significant improvement in their disease, compared to about 20% of the placebo group.
ADVERTISEMENT
While Amgen's (Nasdaq: AMGN - News) blockbuster RA drug, Enbrel, still appears to be the most powerful drug on the market, there are several potential advantages to Isis' candidate, which acts on the same inflammatory agent in the body.
The first is cost: Enbrel costs about $14,000 per patient, per year. If 104838 is approved, it will likely cost significantly less. Furthermore, Enbrel needs to be injected twice per week, while in this trial, Isis' candidate appeared just as effective in either once-per-week, or twice-per-week dosings. Finally, and most significantly, Isis' candidate could eventually be available in pill form, whereas Enbrel will always be an injectable drug.
All of this is well and good, and news like this is sufficient to move any biotech 10% on any given day. However, I believe this news is more significant for Isis, as it represents a major success for their "second-generation" anti-sense drugs.
Isis is an old codger of a biotech company, founded back in 1989. The researchers who founded it had a vision of using short strands of DNA or RNA to block production of disease-causing proteins inside cells. It has always been an elegant vision, yet one fraught with major pitfalls. The two main problems are keeping these strands of DNA or RNA stable in the blood, and then actually getting it into the body's cells. These issues have long made me quite bearish on anti-sense technology, especially the first generation of drug candidates.
The only approved drug that Isis has developed in 15 years is Vitravene, which is a special case, as it is directly injected into the eye and doesn't have to travel through the blood or go through many cells. There have been several high-profile failures such as Affinitak. The cancer drug's failure seemed to affirm that anti-sense strategy may be "anti-sense" to investors making a profit.
However, given the recent trial results, I think anti-sense might finally start making better sense -- as well as more cents -- for Isis.
David Nierengarten, Ph.D., works with a biotechnology venture capital fund. He often contributes to Fool.com and is an active member of the TMF community as DavidMN. He does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned. He appreciates your comments at davidnierengarten@mac.com and on the Biotechnology discussion board.
main, you would think all that buy action on ISIS would move the stock
Does anyone know of a good free live streaming feed for TIC.O and TIC.N ?
IBM is starting to look attractive here. There should be support at 90 and again at 88. We'll soon see.
In edit, broke 90
RNDC came out of the gate well this am.
7:28AM Raindance to offer industry's first nationwide VoIP conferencing platform (RNDC) 3.05: Co announces it has built a proprietary conferencing architecture using new voice services from Level 3 (LVLT 6.81) resulting in the industry's first nationwide VoIP conferencing platform delivered by a web and audio conferencing provider.
Does anyone else follow RHAT. I've been waiting for a re-entry below 18 and it doesn't appear to be in the cards. I'm about ready to bite the bullet at these new levels. Thoughts?
Raindance (RNDC) a VoIP play, continues up today. Can't believe the strength in this market. Think I'll sell some here.
Joe, I wonder how much of the decrease in jobs this am is attributed to the construction market.
Here's one for you. CSCO is printing a fricken hammer...TODAY!
It could quickly turn into a ladder top as well.
There goes BLTI
CRAY made a strong move today.
Water related
A couple of more books to add to the list would be "Overtapped Oasis Reform of Revolution for Western Water" Marc Reisner and "Water Scarcity" Earnest A. Engelbert
Investment idea: Buy ranches with old water rights near cities in arid regions. Denver, Bend, Phoenix, LA etc. Negotiate for the lease of water to municipalities, retain the actual rights. Water "banks" are cropping up in many of these areas to facilitate the transfer of water.
The purchase of GG traders yesterday turned out to be poorly timed. CEO announced today major selling of his stock yesterday:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/031217/minerals_goldcorp_2.html
It's nice to get the info after the fact. Gold is up, the dollar down today, and the stock is still in the red. Other sellers piling on. I picked up a few more traders today.
Do you think the Samsung expansion is one of the reasons for the weakness in INTC today?
He's usually gone on Tuesdays.
Bought GG to add to traders. Gold stocks seem to be a little oversold this am.
So far today has been pretty disappointing. I got fired up early and jumped on some stocks that are now mostly flat to slightly lower. RNDC LEXR EMC AMGN MRK. I couldn't have timed QCOM any worse, it's so far under water I'll need to put on the snorkle gear to find it. Mental stop is around 50.40. Held all gold.
That's sound advice and a good site. Thanks
I read a lot of your posts last Spring and as a result of that and other DD, purchased a goodly amount of gold miners. When I got back from sailing, they had outperformed just about everything in my port. I'm sure other people on this board benefitted from your postings as well.
I'll probably just sit on my hands in the morning but I'll be watching for a drop below 395 to possibly pick up some more traders, and might sell (traders only)if it holds 404.
It might be wishful thinking but I don't think gold is going to tank that much (I'm pretty well loaded). The dollar is gaing a little but so far not that much:
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/graph/senseframeslistquotesnetdania.asp
Gold bid 409 ask 409.50
XAU looks a little toppy. Any of you gold experts thinking of taking some profits here?
Hope this wasn't posted already.
WHAT'S NEW Robert L. Park Friday, 16 May '03 Washington, DC
BABY NUKES: DO WE REALLY NEED A NEW LOW-YIELD NUCLEAR WEAPON?
US policy has been to maintain existing weapons with the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program. But a year ago, The Nuclear Posture Review, a classified Pentagon report, sprang a massive leak (WN 15 Mar 02). The report outlined a plan to use the war on terrorism to justify development of a new class of small nuclear weapons. "Low-yield" weapons, defined as less than 5 kilotons,
would still be powerful enough to blow up the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Super hawks have always longed for such weapons as a way
to make the use of nuclear weapons seem acceptable. But first, a decade-old ban on R&D of low-yield nuclear weapons has to be
lifted. Last Friday, the Senate Armed Services Committee voted by a narrow margin to end the ban, but Democrats vowed to take
the fight to the Senate floor. By Tuesday night, a Dilbertesque compromise in the House severed R&D: research is allowed, while
development is still banned. Both sides are claiming victory. Democrats insist that a ban on development preserves the test moratorium, while Republicans shrug that research can get started now and the issue revisited when its time to test. From outside
Congress, it looks more like everybody lost.
Distributed by - THE UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND and THE AMERICAN PHYSICAL SOCIETY. Opinions are the author's and are not necessarily shared by the University or the American Physical Society, but they should be.
I'm considering an XMSR for a boat. One that runs on DC in a car or boat and AC at home, would get my attention. The Delphi runs on AC or batteries and doesn't use the car battery (if I remember correctly). A portable system that just plugs into an existing stereo would be great.
I'm still heavily short. DCTM, BA, QQQ, INTC and some other smaller positions. I'm beginning to think that my perception of the market it too skewed by the local situation here in Oregon. The state's unemployment rate is 8% (largest in the country). We are runnin a 2 billion dollar state deficit and the state pension plan (PERS) is about 30 billion in debt. Housing is holding up for now.
The shorts are getting dangerously close to their stops. I'm still convinced we will see a downturn but I may have to cover my positions before that happens. C'est la vie.
You can do a google search for eco lawn and get more info. I didn't hear about it until after I installed a new lawn last Fall.
BA getting goosed <g>
I believe they have a mixture for dry areas. It may need watering once a month or possibly every two weeks.
LG
Before you plant the sod, check out a new type of vegetation developed at Oregon State called eco lawn. It's a mixture of grass, ground cover and low growing flowers. You only need to mow it twice a year and needs no watering.
Market seems to be having trouble manufacturing a bounce.
EXPE pretty slick trick. Shorts get to pay the premium used in the buy-out. Ouch, there goes a large chunk of my profits for the year.
Interestingly enough, Legg Mason, who downgraded Expedia from buy to hold yesterday, also happens to be the second largest holder of USAI stock at 26,216,000 shares or 6.82%.
EXPE I'm really on edge. Been short, very short and am underwater. When a stock is halted, what is the usual amount of time it is held. Isn't it usually just long enough to release the news and make a market? This is tortuous.
IMO the only thing that can give the market legs from here would be if Saddam were to go into exile.
wahz,
I was shorting the latter part of that rally yesterday. I'll hold'em rather than fold'em over the weekend. Plan the play etc. I must admit, my older expe shorts are causing some puckering.
Bearmove,
Do the brokerages differentiate between margin expense and short interest expense? It would make more sense that the short interest had increased rather than the margin expense.
Don't forget to pack your shorts.<G>
I'm trying to interpret what this trading action ( or lack thereof) means in EXPE today. Stock has been very flat since early in the day. Split coming this pm.
After the Barron's article, I think the stock will fail to break 70.50 even though they make a run at it before the close.
Isn't it fairly common after a split to see a lot of selling? This may be the last time they have a chance to shake out the shorts.
Holding 2 short positions for now.