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The last few days I've been crunching the numbers and I've come to the conclusion that our company name only tells part of the story. The revenues from our Gold and Silver at today's spot prices are expected to be about $80k per day. The copper revenues will be about $120k per day at $1.50 per pound. So today, we are a 60% copper company and a 40% gold and silver company. This does not even account for the other metals like magnetite.
There are many theories about why we are trading at such low levels but with gold heading towards a 365 day high and silver moving back up also, I don't think it makes sense to say that our pps is based on the metal markets. FWIW...all the gold producers are doing very well in today's trading.
F18
Two points....
1) Relax about the web site. It is down because it wasn't representing the company in the best light. It was rarely updated and wasn't serving any real purpose. From what I have heard, they will be or have hired a new web person and will put it up when they have something to put up. I would rather they take their time and make the web site an asset and concentrate on getting the mill open than to hand it off to a high school kid to build between video games.
2) Those who have restricted shares are likely not selling because one year ago, the people buying restricted shares were paying 300% more than today's pps. It is unlikely that they are selling after waiting 1 year and being so close to production. Also, anyone who knows anything likely has so many shares that they would be considered an insider and would have to register to sell their shares. The volumes being traded do not indicate any insiders are dumping.
I still rest comfortably believing that we have assets worth 10 times more than today's market cap.
F18
It is anyone's guess as to why the price is down 10% today. A few of my theories include:
1) Naked short selling
2) MM's trying to shake out a few million shares for themselves.
3) A shortsighted investor is fed up and bailed.
4) Company raising money by selling shares at a discount to someone who turns around and dumps them in the market for a quick scalp.
What I do believe is that over the past 6 months the Company's true value has only gone up.
Keep in mind that we have only traded $50,000 dollars today which is only .2% of the total market cap. There isn't an explanation for why the price drops 10% when only .2% of the market cap is traded.
F18
This post is intended for new or potential investors of CPRK. I feel a top 10 list would be helpful to consolidate much of what you will find on this board. I have included both my top 10 reasons to be long this stock and my top 10 reasons to avoid it. I welcome other points of view and will adjust this list as more information becomes available.
Top 10 Reasons To Be Excited About This Stock
#10 Limited supply of earth metals….As China, India and other less developed countries participate in the kind of economic prosperity that the West, Europe and a few other countries have, the demand for these metals will likely send prices through the roof. I've seen several credible analysts predict copper will be well above $6 per pound within a couple years.
#9 The Milford Mineral Belt is widely known for its mining potential. The mining history is easy to research.
#8 Mark Dotson has spent 20 plus years developing this project. It appears to me that his motives are good and that he is loyal to those who have helped him get so close to realizing his dream. From what I can tell, he has used very little of the money raised over the past few years for his own benefit.
#7 Low copper prices is forcing many copper mines out of business. CPRK will benefit from this by being able to acquire equipment and expertise at a much lower price. This industry contraction will also benefit CPRK from a supply/demand point of view.
#6 As I understand it, the assay tests have indicated that the % grade of copper in the Hidden Treasure mine is about double the grade that Kennecott is getting out of the Bingham pit. Additional drill holes show even higher grade copper in future mines.
#5 Its been said that the gold, silver and other metals they are finding are enough to pay all the operating expenses of the company. If true, all the copper revenues would fall to the bottom line. This cash flow bonanza will be used to buy back shares, pay a dividend, expand the capacity of the mine and invest in other opportunities (e.g., geothermal).
#4 There are well placed people who believe that CPRK has hit the "motherload" with one of their drill holes. It has been speculated that this find is several hundred feet deep and is composed of the highest grade copper that Mother Nature can produce and might be worth tens of billions of dollars.
#3 The construction of the mill is nearly complete. Mark Dotson says CPRK will be the talk of the industry when they go online in the next few weeks/months. This exposure will only help get the pps where it belongs.
#2 Market cap of this company is only $25 million. IMO, assets are worth several hundred million dollars on the low end and up to several billion on the high end. Everyone who has visited the mill has been very impressed and can see the upside potential of this company. This was also the case when the pps and market cap were much higher than they are now.
#1 Possibility of a significant move in this stock in a very short amount of time. This could be triggered by 1) LT financing deal with reputable lender, 2) validation of significant finds from drilling program, 3) short squeeze, 4) mill startup, 5) company buyout, 6) dividends, 7) institutional investors join the party, 8) economic recovery spurred on by massive governmental stimulus 9) stock buyback program, 10) market makers realize how much money they could make on this stock by accumulating their own shares at $.01 and running the price up 20 times that much and/or 11) the story of this stock starts to get out to the day traders and the typical Utahans looking to get rich quick.
Top 10 Reasons To Be Cautious About This Stock
#10 Worldwide great depression lasts for several years.
#9 In the short term, the price per copper could fall below a dollar a share which would scare existing and potential investors away from CPRK. While this would not kill the company it will surely result in more dilution and less upside potential.
#8 Mill startup might not go well and could take several months to correct problems. With copper inventories high, they might not be able to get a good price for their concentrate.
#7 Naked shorting drives the PPS much lower and the company has not other choice but to sell shares to keep operating. This dilution potential dilution could significantly reduce the upside potential of the share price.
#6 Company has shown an inability to accurately project when the mill would be completed. This might indicate that they are not in touch with reality and brings into question all the projections they have made.
#5 2.5 billion shares O/S and IMO likely to increase. This could limit how high the stock could eventually go.
#4 IMO, the company currently lacks the expertise they need to move from a non-reporting entity to a full reporting entity. Their website needs work (they are doing this now), their financial statements need to be audited and they just have not impressed me how they have presented themselves to the investment world. Mark appears dogged as it relates to the importance of these things.
#3 Pink sheet listing.
#2 Company is controlled by few people. Insiders could make self-serving decisions that would not be in the average shareholder's best interests.
#1 PPS trend is awful, the dilution trend is not good, and the float is ballooning.
This list is just my opinion at this time. I hope this is helpful.
F18
I'm looking at this as a speculative value play. I have a few million shares at $.02 avg. With 2.5 billion o/s shares, the current market cap is $25 million. Our CEO told me personally that the cost to construct the mill will be near $60 million but it is worth $100 million. The proven ore in the ground has been appraised at billions and there is almost universal agreement that the Milford mineral belt is likely to have unimaginable amounts of heretofore unproven reserves. Even if we end up at 3 billion shares o/s I think we are still getting in on the ground floor.
F18
The have stated that the LT Financing is not essential and that they would be fine without it. That being said, the LT financing would allow them to:
1) payoff existing bridge debt (approx. $40 mil) at lower rates,
2) invest in the SX/EW add on that would significantly improve future profits, and my favorite
3) buy back millions of shares while they are still really cheap.
F18
mtnfishn,
I would add a #3......
A substantial line of credit with a credible lender. Because the loan will be collateralized by the property and the mill, it would essentially be the most public appraisal we have yet received. Mark can talk about how valuable he thinks the company is worth and he can talk about the various appraisals he has received, but so far we lack verification by a credible third party.
As you well know, the market is only efficient when it has all the information. For example, when one company makes a tender offer for another company, the pps of the target company jumps immediately to near the offer price. The market is very quick to assimilate the new information. Even then, the deal could still fall through which brings an equally swift response from the market.
I think the market would be swift to react if CPRK were are able to pull off a substantial line of credit in the near future.
F18
At one point today, FLWE was up about 2,000% over the past two days. It is still up 800% which is just another indicator to me that when you live on the pink side of the tracks, you need to patiently wait for the MMs to pump up the volume.
One day after Dr. King's birthday, I have a dream that in the near future CPRK could rise 800% in one day.
F18
While the volumes don't suggest this is happening yet, our new partnership might introduce dozens/hundreds of new shareholders to the potential of cprk. Our volumes suggest to me that nobody knows about us yet. Which may be good because I would rather the story get out after we start producing revenues and maybe it can trigger a short squeeze.
Could it be that our new partner's capital structure is so screwed up (convertible debentures, etc) that its CEO is shifting much of the upside potential to a friend's company to keep it away from the sharks who have swallowed up his own company?
At any rate, I see this deal as likely neutral, potentially great and unlikely to be negative because if we find the money to fund this project, it means that our company is doing just fine.
F18
Hi everyone.....JTF asked me to post this link to a very interesting article about earth metals.
http://www.theaureport.com/lpt/na/2043
He also asked me to post this.....
"Please post that JTF is still around but due to deleted posts on IHUB that were on topic, I’ve decided to just observe…. (mods tried to get posts reinstated but with no luck) I’ve said everything I’ve needed too. Out of my hands….. (never was in my hands….)"
I've spoken with him and know that he is still confident in the enormous potential of this company and feels that the information he has received has generally come to fruition, but is also very frustrated with the delays and pps.
F18
When I was down to the mill in December, Mark Dotson was very excited about this geothermal deal. He was also very tight lipped about it. I don't know how all the dots got connected to match CPRK up with a project in Argentina but it would be an interesting story to hear.
I think this deal shows tremendous confidence in CPRK's future cash flows...not only by Mr. Dotson but also Fellows.
While a financing deal and/or mill start-up is needed asap to prevent further dilution, it is clear this company and this CEO are not idle.
F18
I understand where you're coming from but at the same time I would hate for anyone to sell in a panic if/when it happens. I've always found it best to prepare for the worst but hope for the best.
F18
It shouldn't take anyone by surprise that they will need to increase the AS.....they've been at 2.5 billion OS for a few weeks and they do have operating expenses that need to be paid.
The question is not what is the current AS and OS, the real question is what it will be when they become cash flow positive or when they secure financing?
All an increase in the AS would do is provide management room to operate. Remember they own several hundred million shares and are more negatively impacted than all of us when the shares are diluted. I know they are working hard for all shareholders; however, this does not mean that I will not hold them accountable if they do not perform.
I went down to the mill in November and reported here that I didn't think the mill would be fully operational until Feb or March. I can live with a few more shares being issued if that means they can achieve positive cash flows sooner rather than later.
I will start getting worried if we don't have concentrate by the end of Feb.
F18
One has to wonder why a buy order for 2+ million shares wouldn't move the price up when it accounts for about 1/3 of the total volume for the day.
Oh the games that are played.
F18
Wow....it is amazing to me how the MMs can drop the market cap of a company so much on so little volume. Essentially we've traded $35,000 on a company valued at $25 million and imo worth 20x that... yet the price falls 10% today and 35% since last week. Go figure since the mill is literally a few days/weeks away from producing concentrate and hopefully days away from a financing deal that will end the dilution.
One look at the chart tells me this stock is being manipulated!!! This situation reminds me of a famous scene from the movie "Wall Street" Bud asks Gordon Gecko why we wants to wreck Blue Star. His answer was "because it is wreckable". In the end, Bud and Blue Star had a plan that ended up wrecking Gecko.
Keep the faith friends and imo you can look forward to a rapid increase in pps that I suspect is right around the corner.
F18
Nice to see copper breaking out of its long downward trading pattern. It is anyone's guess if this market rally has legs but with nearly a trillion in TARP money, a trillion in stimulas (much of this will be infrastructure (i.e., copper)), 5% mortgage rates, 5%-10% growth rates in China and India, and a very liberal media just itching to spin every story to the benefit of our new president, I could easily see a quick return to $2+ copper.
F18
With the new year comes another opportunity to max out my spouses and my own Roth IRA contributions.....$5,000 limit per year (for person joint tax payers who make less than $150,000 AGI). If you haven't made your 2008 contribution you can do both years until April 15th.
That would but about 425,000 shares in each account and all the gains will be tax free. I want to thank all those who are selling legitimate and naked shares for the opportunity to purchase this stock so cheaply.
PS....I also will be adding to my kids education IRA accounts so they can use tax free gains to get college educations.
F18
Your description of what you saw on your visit matches what I saw a few weeks ago. While the stock price is hard on the nerves I must say that I'm grateful for the opportunity to get my average down and greatly increase my potential gain with 10 times the number of shares I would have had if we would have stayed at higher levels.
It does seem unfair that the long-term friends of this company have higher avg prices than those who are just now coming along. Oh well, such is life.
As for estimating the pps of this stock, it is my understanding that using the standard formulas and ratios of PE multiples and the like do not apply so much to mining companies. What drives the pps has less to do with quarterly performance and more to do with the net present value of the assets. In other words, I think mining companies are valued more on their balance sheet whereas most other companies are valued on their income statements.
There is no doubt that the Company needs to demonstrate that they can get the value out of the asset at an efficient cost; however, I believe the pps could move very quickly once the industry experts can agree on the value of the mineral reserves. There have been plenty of appraisals done that show the discounted value of the known ore bodies at several hundred million dollars which is a long way from our current market cap.
Even if Copper King does not find any more copper, gold, silver and the other metals than they have already proven, the pps should be valued about 15-20 times higher than it is now. With the Company finding more and more ore with each new drill hole, I believe the value of the asset could reach several billion dollars which could justify a pps of $1 or more.
While $.01 or more in dividends for years to come sounds very nice, the other sugar plum bouncing around in my melon is that this project may be too big for CPRK to fully realize the true value and that it would make them an attractive acquisition target for someone like Rio Tinto or Sumitomo. While I think Mark Dotson has a strong desire to control this company, every man has his price especially if selling the Company would eliminate a ton of headaches like SEC filings, audits, lawsuits, moving the company onto a different exchange, investor relations, etc.
F18
I agree with most of what you write except for the motherload comment.....Independent verification of a motherload will, imo, move this stock quickly. I believe it could set off a chain reaction that would cause a short squeeze which could push us back where we belong. I also believe a financing deal could do the same.
F18
If the proof of the illegal shorting was easy to find, the practice wouldn't be so pervasive. The best proof I can offer is a review of the stock chart over the past 4 months.
It makes no sense to me that more people would be selling than buying as the Company nears completion of the mill. Every long I know has bought more and more and more as the pps has dropped. So who is selling?
As I understand it, most of the restricted shares were purchased above today's pps so that doesn't offer any explanation. Also, presumably, those holding restricted shares would see the value here more than the average investor.
The relentless downward pressure on this stock does not match the fundamentals. IMO, the MMs and their partners are short about 500 million shares and view the pps as a one way street down to zero. This will be a problem if the Company does not get a line of credit or can't generate positive case flows for many more months.
However, once the Company is truly done raising money via the stock, and if/when they announce the rumored extraordinary results of their drilling operation, the new money will flow into this stock so fast that the people short will see the credibility and will cover in a big hurry. Even better would be a tender offer from a major mining concern.
F18
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and a Very Happy New Year to all CPRK investors.
I heard something today that if true will make 2009 a very, very good year!!!!!
F18
Anyone selling now for tax losses better understand that they can not buy it back for 30 days or it is considered a "wash sale". The next 30 days could get very very interesting. I would sure hate to be on the sidelines for the next 30 days.
Also, I've heard many times that investors frequenly make poor decisions when they are thinking more about taxes than they are the quality of the investment. This is the same for both loss selling and for gain avoidance. Also, you can only deduct losses up to $3,000.....I would be pretty surprised if many out there have gains this year to offset the CPRK loss.
F18
$32 million market cap.......$60 million mill at cost......$100 million mill at replacement value.......$billions of ore for years to come.......estimated 500 million shares short that need to be covered and a company that is very close to being cash flow positive for years to come. What do you think the pps will be if the company is able to get a line of credit for 3 times the market cap of the company? What do you think will happen to the pps when 500 million short shares (my estimate) are covered?
The question for me is which pps will we see first....$.01 or $.10? I think both are very possible within the next 30 days.
F18
Another investor and I spent two hours at the mill/mines yesterday with Mr. Dotson. This was my first trip down to the mine and I can say that my experience was very similar to others that have posted here.
We first locked the truck in 4x4 and drove up on a bluff so he could show us the boundaries of their property. I believe one of Mr. Dotson's biggest accomplishments was to consolidate all those claims into one of the worlds largest.
Next, we saw their new maintenance shop where there were quite a few large trucks, front end loaders and other large construction vehicles.
We then drove all over the property and saw multiple mines with obvious indications of substantial mineralization. We could see the evidence of past mining operations which were halted because they didn't have the kind of equipment that exists today.
We then toured the mill. This is one very impressive facility. I asked what the price tag was for the construction of the mill and was told it cost about $60 million. We were then told that had the mill been constructed in the traditional manner it would have cost over $100 million. The savings were realized through building the mill w/o using the traditional methods and designs. Mr. Dotson felt that the experts (e.g. Hatch) will be amazed and perplexed that they were able to pull this mill off in the manner they did.
Mr. Dotson predicted that as soon as the mill is operational in the coming weeks, that it will be featured on the front pages of mining publications all around the world. He told us earlier that the mill is what will make the property worth so much more than it was. Ore bodies in the land are not worth much unless you can process them efficiently.
We met the person in charge of security. She is also a Beaver County law enforcement deputy and her gun served notice that she was very serious about her job. Security of the mill seemed to be on Mr. Dotson's mind throughout our visit.
There was a large truck that delivered some electrical components while we were there. I don't believe it was the Toshiba component that is so vital to the startup but I got the feeling that would be delivered in the next week or two. We were told that there are approximately 150 employees working on a typical day.
We were told that when the price of copper is low they will stockpile the lower grade ore bodies and process the higher grades so they will still earn a very nice profit. They are finding large quantities of ore bodies that are 2-3 times the percentages of their first project Hidden Treasure which is 2-3 times the percentages of Rio Tinto's Bingham project.
We were told that the lower price of copper will result in a contraction of supply that will ultimately benefit CPRK. The mines that are closing around the world were nearing the end of their operations anyway because they were running out of ore. Mr. Dotson believes the demand for copper today exceeds the supply and that the prices will rebound quickly.
A few of the "nuggets" that we discussed include:
1) The company is working on a few deals that will improve the capital structure. This includes recovering a substantial number of shares. I asked about the Company increasing the authorized shares and was told that they have a plan to avoid that.
2) It is clear that Mr. Dotson is very agitated about the manipulation of the shares and would like nothing more than to catch these people with their pants down.
3) Mr. Dotson was very optimistic about the geo thermal opportunity that was recently disclosed in the press release. He was not able to speak about it freely but said it could add significant value to shareholders.
4) We were told that the reason there wasn't any press releases for a while was because they were negotiating with their debt holders. The new terms will be much better and will be retroactive. I believe that was the first domino that needed to fall and that we will now see some things happening with some large institutions.
5) Apparently there was a recent appraisal done by a potential investor/customer that valued the project at $600 million. That would be $.24/share and does not factor in the potential for substantial amounts of additional ore bodies which are being found all over the property.
6) Mr. Dotson discussed the possibility of moving the stock listing onto a Canadian exchange once they get to a point of having a steady operation and after they execute their plan to recover some stock.
Overall both of us were very impressed and felt reassured that our investment would be a very good one. However, we feel the time projections for the mill start up may be a bit optimistic and have factored in Feb/March as being more likely than Dec/Jan. We may be pleasantly surprised if they get there sooner but we would prefer to have our expectations exceeded rather than be disappointed if they have to extend the dates yet again. If it does take 4-8 more weeks to get the mill fine tuned, we feel that will not have a significant impact on the long term value of our investment.
Hope this helps.
F18
If copper goes below $1/share for very long we all have much to be worried about.....the least of which will be our investment in CPRK.
Funny that it was just a couple months ago that I read a report by a very reputable company predicting that copper would hit $6 due to worldwide demand.
Its a good thing we have gold, silver and a few other metals to tide us over until the world economy rebounds.
F18
I've been lurking for many months and this is my first post. My first purchase was at .33 my last at .022. I've been a victim of pump and dump in the past so I recognize it when I see it. The major difference here is we have hard assets to justify a long position. Pump and dump is often used for companies that are selling vaporware and/or empty promises. The stocks of these companies often trend lower with each successive pump and dump.
Anyone can see from the pictures and the eye witness accounts that this company is the real deal. It is clear that the pps when it ran into the .30s was bunk and if we get anywhere near that anytime soon I will happily take my profits. I feel this company is ripe for a major run once the real day traders and pump and dumpers come to play in our sandbox. However, anyone who pumps and dumps at these levels are leaving the theater after they watch the previews and will miss one heck of a movie.
F18