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Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. You know that. You don’t need to be told that the market fluctuates. To me, the “fundamentals” are not QE2, etc., but what the chart says. That, I suppose is our philosophical difference. I suspect the market manipulators have delivered this warm bottle of “milk money” from the Fed hoping traders will get a buzz, thinking it’s to infinity and beyond blasting off in the QE2 rocket. Well, I’m not a “rocket man”. Note the 5 waves up in wave A and the 5 waves up now peaking in wave C which I added since the earlier post of this chart. Note the negative divergence between the ROC and EDC in both peaks A and C as noted by the red and green lines. The MACD (14,50,0) HIST and the MACD (12,26,0) have been reliable indicators as marked and give good guidance as to which side of the market to be on generally. I believe we are making a peak like in late April-May and a sharp, major drop is imminent. I don’t know why and don’t care why. Whether that drop occurs within a major bull up trend or in a major bear down trend will be revealed if support levels are taken out or not. Confirmation of a down trend will occur when/if the ROC drops below the center zero line. Time will tell.
Revised chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SSO:SDS&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10317593277&listNum=3&a=210273631
SSO:SDS chart Matching April high level.
2008 high was 1.71 and should be strong resistance. Watch rounding momentum indicators with red sell lines. No sell signal on SPX daily yet. Early ADP employment numbers were positive today but produced no reaction. Selling may not occur until unemployment numbers are released Friday morning and market sells on the news. I see no reason to be positive here as market is extended and running into resistance with momentum declining.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SSO:SDS&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10317593277&listNum=3&a=210273631
Waiting "faithfully" for nearing sell signal
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p13264374002&listNum=3&a=210877943
SPX Hitting former support now resistance line
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p21056967572&a=210820271&listNum=3
Renkoron, Interesting...
I've never had much luck using renko with short term trades
Disparity between SPX and financials
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p59890831704&a=210533766&listNum=3
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&id=p20313289314&listNum=3&a=210668334
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p98742440864&a=210537798&listNum=3
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&id=p35571394816&listNum=3&a=210538344
Disparity between SPX and financials
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p59890831704&a=210533766&listNum=3
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&id=p20313289314&listNum=3&a=210668334
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p98742440864&a=210537798&listNum=3
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&id=p35571394816&listNum=3&a=210538344
Top or not?
I’m no EW expert. In fact, most EW wave charts I’ve seen could have been better used by enlarging them to banner size, putting them on the floor, and using them as dance step moves for Zumba dance exercises to work off those extra pounds gained while trading in front of the computer all day. Nevertheless, I submit a wave count chart I’m using to make sense out of the market, a difficult task when the Fed is playing a dangerous game of musical deflatable currency chairs. The SSO:SDS daily chart is good for seeing the basic wave moves. So I’m posting that below as one part of a possible case for a top. The other parts have already been posted. A small footnote. I value all posts I see and have for some time benefitted from unusual (to me) methods of charting. Some of my charts may be too “busy” with information. However, I leave all items in there in hopes someone may see something he can use. Below is the daily SSO:SDS chart. Both 60 and 30 minute versions work well for trading. Good luck to all.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SSO:SDS&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p47717360063&listNum=3&a=210273631
John, I believe Mickey just made an inappropriate hand gesture on the watch face in response. I'll post a "case for a top" when time available. Not today.
IF the red resistance line rejects the advance and the market falls back into the purple (EMA 68,68 hist), I will take that as a bear market warning.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p06898617932&listNum=3&a=210089159
John, Yep, still building my ark :)
North: Not fighting just charting
This up move today is still within the up trend which I believe is a counter trend to the dominant down trend. Watch for the "Fluctuator" (gotta love that name, don't you!) to roll over and drop below the 5 sell line on the way down. There's still a little room at the top, although info released Wed and Fri may send the market down after what I see as a stage 3 distribution top. Faz on the chart is building a "stage 1 bottom" as the stage 3 top is put in. Note the "top on BDK in completely flat, unlike SPX. The Fluctuator Rules :)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p40477437128&listNum=3&a=210154059
updated since post
Drop to AT LEAST 1065
in my opinion much, much lower
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p40477437128&listNum=3&a=210154059
Bond price chart. Previous was bond yield. My error.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51104984127&listNum=3&a=210078313
Bearish negative divergence between bonds and SPX.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44514655795&listNum=3&a=210029425
Dollar comparison chart worth study.
Draw your own conclusions. In the meantime, GO GATORS!!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39658350297&listNum=12&a=174611302
NYA at top of price channel. Time for a drop.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p79477702201&listNum=3&a=209971203
Interesting. I'm thinking the long-term downtrend line will be too much to overcome. Watch to see if a reversal occurs soon to send the indicator below the bear market warning line. It almost went there recently.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27587803957&listNum=9&a=182099764
Bombs Away Near: Dive, Dive!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&id=p65196991413&listNum=3&a=209230779
Using TLT (20 Year Bond Fund) as a market indicator
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&id=p02956233578&listNum=3&a=209719533
Goldman Sachs trend chart
as financial sector indicator which leads the market.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&p=10&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p59810888491&listNum=3&a=209725654
(PS Chart named after my grandson's golden retriever "Woofy")
Schwabb StreetSmart Pro
Understood. But real time MACD indictors rule. Monday's open should be interesting after the 1st hour diversion is over.
Top for now
See chart. Pullback to about 1065 coming. Then will the bounce continue the blue up price channel to about 1173 or will the larger red price channel prevail? I believe the red down channel dominates, but price action will tell. One should be ready to adjust to the action of the tape.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p18439733219&listNum=3&a=208141142
$RIFIN daily gave long red candle down signal today
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RIFIN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p25679288970&a=208861933&listNum=3
See similar signal at Aug high
Blue trend change signal given
on daily summation index. This may precede the change to down slightly. Watch for long red candle dropping down below 1129-31 on daily SPX to confirm trend change.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p44101844137&listNum=3&a=208265753
10-year bond yield as market predictor
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=167162