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I wonder? Do MM's read this board,
I mentionned yesterday at noon that I have had 245,000 shares on the bid for a month and that I wasn't getting filled.
This morning i got them ???
11:03:30 AM Trade 0.0004 245000 and they are in my account now.
I woner???
Just in case...
To whomever should care: "I STILL DO NOT HAVE MY HBRM SHARES"
LOL!
I would love to be a shareholder of Pure Romance (if it was possible).
However the fact is I am only a shareholder of UVCL a simple shell like many, someone may see advantage in bying for taxes and listing reasons.
If I ever become shareholder of Pure Romance thru the hoped for merger, you can bet your shirt that we will seriously care about:
"what stock structure we end up with after the announcement."
In a recent post SWSONE wrote AS AN HYPOTHESIS:
"2- worst case scenario, R/S the current O/S 25 to 1 and issue the difference to puremance shareholders. so, current shareholders including Sean get %5 of the new company."
IF that was to be (who knows?) we would become shareholders of Pure Romance but let's face it with 1/25 the number of shares we currently have.
Assuming other hypothesises debated in here previously to be realistic (Profit of $12,000,000 and EPS of $0.06/share, PPS could effectively (based on 200,000,000 O/S) be let's say $0.50.
But we then have 25 times less shares and based on our current ownership, relative PPS for you and I would be $0.02 or 50/25.
This is quite close to current PPS.
I do not mind speculating but some in here are realy wild going at it (unless some traders herein only pump, trying to suck in naive buyers).
I do not know if the merger will or not happen (I however have no trust in Sean) but if it does, PPS of current shares should be at most 5 or 6 cents, after it will have been manipulated for a few days.
Whatever the case, obviously, new buyers are not there anymore and all one can do right now is sit and wait. I personnally do not hold my breath as for a release next week.
Leaving in Canada, I hope Bush did not have mine intercepted at custom, thinking it was terrorism related documents "Hostile Bomb Retrofitted in Missiles" (HBRM)?
Seriously, I still wait for mine up here. Not that I care that much, considering that it's only worth a couple of hundred dollars and that I do not intend to sell them now. However, I wonder why it takes so long for some of us to get them (some got theirs more than one week ago if I recllect right).
Agree with most of your post but had to address: "we KNOW there won't be any dilution because all the shares are already out!"
If Sean wanted to issue additional shares, all he has to do is to reverse split the O/S let's say 1 for 10. Then:
O/S becomes 20,000
A/S remains 200,000.
Then Sean can play the game one more cycle.
This being said, if the current merger project doesn't materialize, who would buy new shares from Sean. There shall be plenty of shares available from current shareholders trying to get rid of them.
Just for the fun of it ...
Those Managers have a curious way to distribute shares to buyers.
On 12/28 I placed a bid for 2,000,000 shares at 0.0004.
Within hours I got 1,010,000 shares.
On 01/04 I got another 745,000 shares.
Since then, millions of shares went at my bid price (just today, as of now, there were 2,016,000 at this price).
Still have an open bid for 245,000 shares but they never gave them to me.
One wonders how these guys do sequence there sales between bidders?
Let's face reality.
Current UVCL shares could be worth more or less 5 cents after the alluded to merger (excluding a probable spike of the PPS immediately following the announcment of the said merger).
However, the credibility of the owner (Sean) is very low with shareholders and the desired merger may easyly be an illusion ... once more.
In this context, some may want to buy at current PPS (vive or take 0.005) but why would someone sell. The downside is only 0.015 (worst case) and the upside at least 4 times that.
The SPECULATION, notwithstanding the probabilities, is therefore interesting ... if you are already stuck with shares. May as well ride them till we know better.
FWIW
I do not have the name you look for but as of today, here is what the profile of UVCL is on FreeRealTime.com:
Share Related:
Market Cap(Th.) $ 3,108,300 (yesterday close)
Common Shares Outst. 199,250,000
"People who are in it now are and will trade accordingly."
Absolutely!
My posts do relates to pricing of stocks based on FUNDAMENTALS but I am very much aware that in such an environment, for a while, FUNDAMENTALS and LOGIC do no prevail.
I just did try to tell those "playing it" to be careful on the buy side.
As for those on the sell side, count me in those "planning on the spike".
"benefited existing holders and left the new buyers as bagholders because the runs were usually only a day."
Do remember that when time comes ... if it does.
"Many will make some significant cash off this play."
As alluded to in the "Note" at the end of my previous post, that is for sure but so is the reverse.
I agree that discussions are most than likely still going on.
However (there are so many shells available out there) the split of the post merger ownership is certainly the object of serious NEGOCIATIONS.
Secondly, assuming (and I do) that Pure Romance management is smart, they certainly do not negociate ONLY with UVCL. I wiould bet that they also look at different alternatives and try to get the best deal for there (private) shareholders.
I personally beleive that Sean holds the short end of the stick and cannot negociate easyly whatever a final agreement could be.
Let's hope that the month end commitment can be respected but in such environments, target dates are only that targets.
We shall see.
As for the reading, I am up to writing them ... LOL!
I just try to figure out what could happen IF MERGER THERE IS and respond to those alluding to:
EPS of $0.06 Xmultiplication factor of 8 or 10 and PPS of $0.46 or $0.60.
Assuming Earnings to be let's say $ 10,000,000 (Gross Margin is not earnings), Pure Romance could have a market value of let's say 8 times earnings (conservative) or $80,000,000.
Currently, understanding the merger possibility, the market give UVCL a market value of $3,000,000.
Let's ASUUME that Pure Romance is prepared to buy that shell 3.3 times it's market value (darn optimistic), therefore $10,000,000.
Then post merger financial structure could read:
O/S : 1,800,000,000 (9 X 200,000,000) but reverse split of more or less 1 for 10 could happen (I do not remember how many authorized shares there are in UVCL)
Earnings: $10,000,000 (???)
EPS: $ $0.0056
Multiplyer: 10 (???)
PPS: $0.056
That's totally hypothetical but looks somewhat realistic, assuming merger there will be.
Note: Within the release of the news that the merger is going to be, MM's, speculators and traders will manipulate the PPS trying to suck in small naive investor's money, then the PPS would come back to normal after a little while. Business as usual.
Let's drop it. I do not see your point.
I know how many current O/S there are right now.
This number is meaningless considering that we have no clue how many shares there will be post merger and what % of these the current UVCL share will represent.
The cost of your shares is irrelevant to the point I try to make.
What I discuss is the potential future PPS vs the current one.
I do not see your point?
Instead of looking at it as a UVCL shareholder trying to maximize his fallouts of a merger, try to think about it as the ownew of Pure Romance just trying to acquire an empty shell in view of getting listed faster and at lower cos.
The following is what I was refering toin my previous post:
"Pure Romance will be the new company, with a change of name, change stock symbol, and new valuation. Pure Romance has growing Revenues and earnings of about $0.06 /share. So to value the stock of the new company, determine a PE Multiple. A very conservative Multiple would be 8.
$0.06 * 8 = $0.48 stock price
Theoritically, the new stock of Pure Romance should rise to $0.48 as investors become aware of the new company."
earnings of $0.06 is the issue:
1- It assumes earnings of $12,000,000 and 200,00,000 O/S. This number of O/S is the current one.
2- The earnings in question are not realy earnings but "A gross margin = to 20% of Pure Romance 2006 Revenues of $60 million"
Honestly, there is currently (with what we know) no way to forecast what the PPS of the new company will be. It may be slightly better than current one but I certainly do not hold my breath.
I suspect (stand to be corrected) that some do not account for the post merger additional O/S we will have out there.
Obviously, if one assumes that the number of O/S will not grow seriously, he shall conclude that PPS will be much higer with a serious, profitable business behind the stock instead of emptyness.
However Pure romance owners will not give away their value for an empty shell bringing tax benefits on one hand and payables to the owner of UVCL on the other.
Personally, I assume that post merger PPS will may be slightly higher than current one but even that is not a certitude.
I am not an expert but some of your calculations are based on numbers that have not much to do with what the reality could be post merger (if it ever haooens).
"Pure Romance had 2006 Revenues of $60 million" . Fine.
"Supposedly 20% profit margin". If so then gross margin would be $12,000,000. O.K.!
"Most people are calculating EPS of $0.06". Assuming it is calculated based on the number of UCVL O/S (200,000,000) this says that EARNING PER SHARE (EPS) = GROSS MARGIN = NET EARNINGS. That doesn't make sense to me.
A question not herein alluded to is how many shares overall will be outstanding within the post merger company and what % of these will be owned by current UVCL shareholders?
My view is that with luck, considering what each parties bring to the table, we (UVCL shareholders) would be darn lucky to have a 10% ownership of the post merger company.
If so, assuming EPS to be let's say 75% of gross margin (optimistic), it would read (.75 X 20,000,000) $15,000,000.
Assuming we will own 10% of the post merger company, $1,500,000 earning could be considered the Earnings behind our current 200,000,000 shares for an effective EPS of (1,500,000 / 200,000,000) $0.0075/share.
Assuming a multiplier of 8 PPS would then be FUNDAMENTALLY JUSTIFIED at $0.06.
Better than current PPS but far from the expected $0.32.
A lot of hypothesis in her and the critical one remains the reverse merger. I doubt it will materialize (hoping it will) and I keep my expectations as realistic as I can.
This being said, Speclators, traders and MM's can enginneer a much higher PPS based on the news. I hope they will but I shall escape quite fast before logic prevails again.
We shall see.
"We entered into a letter of intent with Pure Romance, Inc. during the third quarter of 2006. We are moving forward with the intent to enter into a definitive merger agreement by the end of the month and to close the merger by the end of January 2007."
Source: Form 10QSB, filed on 11/15/2006, signed by:
Sean Y. Fulda
Chief Executive Officer and President
Chief Financial Officer
To bad this man cannot realy (based on history) be trusted.
HBRM shares trading today:
last trades 3,500 and 5,000 shares at $0.10
Bid at $0.10
Ask at $0.15
Must be nice to have shares to play with !
It's so dull to watch this stock that some may look for something to do, waiting for the Matin to issue something (good or bad) worth being read.
Here is a site you may want to use to spend time:
http://www.i-am-bored.com/bored_link.cfm?link_id=9951
It's so dull to watch this stock that some may look for something to do waiting for the management to say somrthing (good or bad).
Here is a site you may want to use to spend time:
http://www.i-am-bored.com/bored_link.cfm?link_id=9951
1:24:06 PM Trade 0.0006 3255000
1:24:04 PM Trade 0.0006 3255000
1:23:52 PM Trade 0.0006 9000000
1:23:44 PM Trade 0.0006 9000000
1:22:24 PM Trade 0.0006 1361500
1:22:16 PM Trade 0.0006 1361500
1:19:22 PM Trade 0.0006 5385000
That doesn't say what's behind them (real trade or MM's cleaning the books between themselves or what?).
However if they are real trades (a seller and a buyer), I wonder where these 32,000,000 shares came from (seller), who bought them at "ask"(4 buyers maybe?) why and why now?
These represent $20,000 worth of shares in a company having a total market cap of less than $3,000,000.
$20,000 is not a real large amount but a relatively large one considering the value of the company the bet is made on.
11:48:36 AM Trade 0.0005 1500000
11:48:36 AM Trade 0.0005 1500000
One has to wonder?
Someone woke up this morning, loked at the market and decided to throw $1,500 at ADVC.
One has to wonder why this person decided to bet that money, on this stock, today ???
Since yesterday I can't even look at the grass grow anymore.
This is bad considering it was as fun as watching this stock.
RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No intent on my part to write any novel, mystery or other.
I on the otherhand did appreciate the "scenario" you did outline and I sincerely beleive it's much closer to reality than mine, since you obviously have constructive communications with Matin.
The following somewhat reflect some comments I got from sources qualifying Matin somewhat as you do:
"His reasons could be as simple as pride and not wishing to acknowledge a failure." (Some said he doen't listen because of these)
"how we view things in this culture. His is different and perhaps we do not see that???" (Cultural differences often have been mentionned to explain his behavior)
Let me try to understand and project somewhat (not assuming you know more than you say).
1- Matin borrowed, potentially from familly putting at risk the ownership of the Mill and may be KCA thereafter.
2- As of now, he has not reimbursed the debt (the Mill legally may now be own by "the familly)
3- He still however behave reports) as if he (we) still owned the mill and KCA.
4- All the BS we have to go thru since the transport mess would then be related to Matin refusing to outline the facts now, concerned that this could get him in trouble (after hiding such significant events for such a long time)
Only one question,
Why doesn't he clean the books now (netting out whatever the Mill and KCA represent), and start operating normally the NA publicly owned company. With a presumed capitalization of more or less 5 to 6 millions, unless this (NA company) is worthless (I do not beleive that), I do not understand why he keeps making a fool of himself issuing positive news releases that no one beleives.
Could there be that the BD affair is much more complex than that ???
I refuse to beleive that Matin is stricly a stupid person or an outright crook.
His behavior however is one who would be the one of such persons.
I therefore suggest that something very serious (other than a morgage) is going on behind the scene and Matin (or his familly) is stuck with facts preventing him from doing the right thing.
Bottom line, Matin is stuck with a real mess in BD and he doesn't know how to get out of it!
The above is only speculation on my part, based on following this speculative stock for over 7 years now.
I know the question wasn't directed to me but I beleive :
b) owns a %.
c)Lost the control.
I however beleive that control is in the hands of a close one of Matin, whatever that means ???
Fair. Keep it going.
Whatever the case, the discussion is for entertainment only considering "I" do not know what is going on and do not expect to know before Matin decides I should ... if ever.
In any case, be assured that I do appreciate very much your contribution to the board (obviously never forgetting that it's an anonymous message board).
You obviously (in context) know much more than I do and I enjoy reading your posts. Thanks.
As for me sounding greedy, I pleade guilty ... LOL!
"Yes Matin does always include the figures from BD in his financials as he should."
That is, if we still own it or part of it. The fact is, we do not know the ownership status of this asset, no auditor ever were able to report it knowledgeably (for $5,000 or so, Matin could pay the trip to an auditor so he can report about it)
We do not know what we own, we do not know who owns it (was it sold to someone close to Matin himself???) and we do not know what the status of this company is with the BD government.
In any case, if, as you say, he includes BD numbers, he should have the decency to produce financials of NA separetely (including liabilities) so we can figure out what progress is being made in this obviously critical project.
I understand that "What happens in BD stays in BD". It always did from what I do understand.
My point was that Matin probably includes what there is out there in his numbers.
That's an hypothesis, based on a long time observation of the situation and I suggest that the probability of it being right is pretty high.
I assume that you will endup being considering many of us will dump them on reception, thereby getting the PPS right down.
Personally, considering their value, I intend to let them sleep in my portfolio and see what happen long term.
A few years ago, a set of financials did show that at the time, all the business was generated in BD and many millions in cash were there (with reserves to pay some kind of taxes)
I always tought that, notwithstanding a business generating some cash out here, Matin keeps including BD numbers, including cash on hand out there.
By the way, considering current behavior of Matin (issuing NR's regularly) I would not be surprised at all if his financials were effectively issued by Feb 10. All he has to do is sit at his desk for a day, print an old set of financials, change the numbers then include them in a news release. Overall this should take more or less 1 day.
I suspect he doen't do it faster to create a credibility impression (???).
"Do you feel that on Feb 10th the upcoming financials will have no use for you?"
Unfortunately, I have to say yes.
"Isn't it better than no news at all?"
It's neither better nor worst, it's as non-informative considering we do not know what it refers to (BD included???) and have no way to validate it. It probably is not even a "ball park" figure since it may not reflect our real ownership (I beleive we own something, I do not know how much it's realy worth and I do not beleive at all the profit figure claimed).
"take advantage of the doubt and buy in cheap" but be darn careful not to bet money you cannot affrd to loose.
Personally I have all the shares I ever wanted to hold in there and more and I look forward to play with some of these (and some more) the PPS allowing.
Only one problem ...
All of this comes from Matin and Matin's credibility is less than zero.
Till this issue is addressed, this is a wild potentially fun GAME.
Enjoy it!
I trust 100% that this is the number you got from Matin. I however doubt your source.
This being said, assuming this to be exact, considering we do not know what's behind these shares, we therefore, for each share held, own 1/19,400,380 of an unknown. Multiplying it by the number of shares we each have, we find out that we have no clue of the fundamental value of our shares.
At least, IT SEEMS as if Matin has stopped issuing shares to cover his salary ... maybe ???